tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38855511473055510692024-03-13T23:36:04.718-04:00The New Middle EastEric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.comBlogger316125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-13321290942256153772024-02-29T17:08:00.010-05:002024-03-12T14:30:41.067-04:00If You Want Peace and Stability in the Middle East, There is only One Choice for POTUS: Joe Biden<p>The Israel-HAMAS War has created another divisive issue in the 2024 United States presidential elections. Following the brutal HAMAS attack on Israel on October 7, 2024, Israel immediately began a huge bombing of Gaza which has resulted, at the time of this writing, in deaths of over 30,000 Palestinians and the destruction or significant damage of over 80% of its infrastructure and buildings. The Benjamin Netanyahu's government's response to the HAMAS attack, which resulted in over 1200 Israeli deaths, has infuriated large swaths of the global community, including thousands of Americans.</p><p>A key question is how the ongoing Israel-HAMAS War will affect this year's elections. Ax the recent Michigan Democratic Party primary indicated, many of Joe Bidne's supporters are highly disappointed with his Gaza War policy. They feel he has been too meek in his criticism of Netanyahu. The Israeli leader seeks to continue the war to prevent elections which he would lose and also possibly face jail time due to his ongoing corruption trial. Will the Israel-HAMAS War cause Biden to lose the presidential elections? </p><p>The answer to this question depends on whether Biden can reenergize the base which allowed him to win in 2020. This coalition will need to mobilize young voters in the 18-30 demographic, people of color, union members and, in Michigan, a key battle ground state, Arab-American voters who are several hundred thousand strong. Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 150,000 votes. If Arab-American defect die to their anger at his Gaza War policy, they could hand the election to Donald Trump.</p><p>Arab-American anger, as well as that of African-Americans who identify with the Palestinian cause, young people, including many Jewish youth, and large numbers of Americans more broadly who are revulsed by the daily images of death and destrcution in Gaza, is understandable. I count myself among those who find Netahyahu's policies in Gaza reprehensible. </p><p>These considerations notwithstanding, let's return to the Trump presidency to see what American policy towards Israel and the Palestinians looked lime then. First, Trump appointed David M. Friedman ambassador to Israel, a post which won narrow US Senate confirmation. </p><p>A founder of Americans Friends of Beit-El Institutions and a columnist for the settlement news website, Arutz Sheva, Friedman has been a supporter of the Israeli far -right, raising funds for settlements, and actively involved in preventing the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. He had no diplomatic experience prior to being appointed ambassador.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG2wewzj3dno9UI2hQmAp88SZn77BIJsUbymTPYxHpSKwnzkjboi1xJ4-3Ea2BZhR36vwngW5VxV-3JTTqjFKIWLt-vEETe86SLbrLVqaLZsXbndcol57pMd6CzsTHg2Ivza24bAsD19asOLJRgFyzwjTAd1r7ufYlTbjN9XjLuu8AYcn-jcJjTcyRpZC8/s330/330px-Ambassador_David_Friedman_visit_to_%C2%ABHesder_Yeshiva_of_Sderot%C2%BB._October_2017_(36901694324).jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="229" data-original-width="330" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG2wewzj3dno9UI2hQmAp88SZn77BIJsUbymTPYxHpSKwnzkjboi1xJ4-3Ea2BZhR36vwngW5VxV-3JTTqjFKIWLt-vEETe86SLbrLVqaLZsXbndcol57pMd6CzsTHg2Ivza24bAsD19asOLJRgFyzwjTAd1r7ufYlTbjN9XjLuu8AYcn-jcJjTcyRpZC8/w400-h278/330px-Ambassador_David_Friedman_visit_to_%C2%ABHesder_Yeshiva_of_Sderot%C2%BB._October_2017_(36901694324).jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">David Friedman with far-right Minister of <br />Finance, Bezalel Smotrich</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>Breaking with a tradition of both Republican and Democartic presidents, Trump moved the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He did nothing to stop the rapid growth of settlements in the West Bank whose construction on occupied territory is considered illegal under international law. Indeed, the Trump administration gave the Netanyahu government a green light to pursue whatever policies it wanted in the West Bank and Palestinian East Jerusalem.</p><p>The Trump administration implemented the Abraham Accords in September 2020 which normalized realtions between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. In October, Morocco and Sudan, which was removed from a list of states supporting terrorism and received a $1.2 billion loan from the United States, joined the accords. </p><p>While the Abraham Accords constituted a step forward in reducing tensions between the Arab world and Israel, there was a noticeable absence of any reference to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state as stipulated by the United Nations which it approved the partition of Palestine into two states - one Arab and one Jewish - with Resolution 181 of November 1947. Clearly the accords were an effort to consolidate ties between Israel and the Arab Gulf at the expense of the Palestinians.</p><p>Trump's return to office would see an intensification of his support for the Israeli settlement movement, if not the expulsion of Palestinian from the West Bank. It could possibly entail support for Israel </p>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-89759108213277880492024-01-31T21:17:00.022-05:002024-02-11T20:17:17.924-05:00A Clear and Present Danger: How Benjamin Netanyahu Threatens Peace in the Middle East and Global Stability<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGGDXjW_3I3SwG7aBERqZY6TY4hxdYmw9UNiWufsqdxFZUQkn_cl6u27TAw4nkKKRhctJBKHr83ojDnzPv5TvAuKB5I_PIMf88PmN64McU7sKF0ti-JGcP26ozo-fjJBLwPKnj-CnsCCymnsBipdGi5lUQaOq4AeQmxzPWfXCeIwGAz2tQ48iHyJrtzgus/s284/NME%20BN%20and%20far%20right%20cabinet%20jan%2031%202024.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="177" data-original-width="284" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGGDXjW_3I3SwG7aBERqZY6TY4hxdYmw9UNiWufsqdxFZUQkn_cl6u27TAw4nkKKRhctJBKHr83ojDnzPv5TvAuKB5I_PIMf88PmN64McU7sKF0ti-JGcP26ozo-fjJBLwPKnj-CnsCCymnsBipdGi5lUQaOq4AeQmxzPWfXCeIwGAz2tQ48iHyJrtzgus/w400-h249/NME%20BN%20and%20far%20right%20cabinet%20jan%2031%202024.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Itamar Ben-Giver, Benjamin Netanyahu and Bezalel Smotrich </td></tr></tbody></table><br />Four months after the brutal HAMAS attack on southern Israel, it is clear that Benjamin Netanyahu represents a serious threat to Middle East peace and potentially to global stability as well. The list of Netanyahu's political sins is a long one. It begins with his lifelong effort to prevent the establishment of an independent Palestinian state living peacefully side-by-side with Israel. What are the implications if the current prime minister remains in office and the Israel-HAMAS war continues?<p></p><p>First, it has become clear that Netanyahu wants the current war to continue. He doesn't care about the over 100 Israeli hostages still held by HAMAS. All that concerns him, as myriad political analysts have argued, is to keep his hold on power and avoid the playing out to the end of his current trial for political corruption. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-puts-political-survival-ahead-of-tough-decisions-on-gaza-783cb8e6?mod=world_feat1_middle-east_pos1">Netanyahu Puts Political Survival Ahead of Tough Decisions on Gaza</a></p><p>Second, it was Netanyahu who ignored numerous warnings from Mossad, Israel's main intelligence organization, and members of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), that HAMAS was planing an attack on Israel. It has been noted that he refused to read a report on the terrorists' plan of attack in July 2023 when delivered to him by a high ranking military officer. </p><p>As a result of the massive security failure on October 7th, more than 40 former high ranking army officers and intelligence chiefs signed a petition saying that Netanyahu's rule constitutes a "clear and present danger" to Israel and that he can no longer remain Israel's prime minister. Although he doesn't have the right to do so, the petition asked Israel's president Isaac Herzog to remove Netanyahu from office. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/26/middleeast/netanyahu-letter-israel-national-security-intl/index.html">Netanyahu must be removed, top former Israeli national security officials say</a></p><p>To retake the office of prime minister in 2022, Netanyahu's only option in forming a cabinet was to include far right extremists, the most notorious of which are Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Giver, and Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich. All the far right cabinet ministers seek to expel the Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza. </p><p>Smotrich created a domestic controversy by diverting large amounts of funding to expand illegal West Bank settlements while Ben-Giver has given arms to settlers with the implicit message that using them on Palestinians won't result in repercussions. Because after Netanyahu returned to power in 2022, attacks on Palestinian farmers, especially in remote areas of the West Bank, created a Palestinian backlash, IDF troops were moved to the West Bank leaving the Israel-Gaza border only lightly patrolled.</p><p>Third, in another ploy to please his far right cabinet ministers, Netanyahu initiated a plan to strip the Israeli Supreme Court of its powers to overrule laws passed in the Knesset, Israel's parliament. Arguing that the Court was too "liberal," Netanyahu provoked 33 weeks of demonstrations by hundreds of thousands of Israelis demanding that his withdraw his effort to undermine Israel's democracy. </p><p>While the October 7th attack brought national unity against the HAMAS terrorists, Netanyahu's effort to turn Israel into an authoritarian state had many consequences prior to the attack. One was that a 100,000 air force reservists, and those in many other parts of Israel's reserve sector (designed to supplement the small IDF in times of need), refused to report for service. As many analysts have argued, this emboldened Israel's enemies, such as Iran and its proxies, including HAMAS, to increase their military pressure on Israel.</p><p>The ill-conceived Israel attack on Gaza began immediately after the HAMAS terrorist attack. Rather than develop a strategic plan, the IDF was sent to bomb the small Gaza strip (about the size of New York City). Using 2000 lb. "bunker busting" bombs and "dumb" (unguided) bombs, Israel has killed over 26,000 Gazans (many buried under building rubble), and wounded more than 62,000. Many women and children have been killed while amputations and permanent physical and psychological ailments among children provide fertile soil for a new generation of extremists. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-21-2024-02caafa092668ecc7ff122229c166807">Palestinian death toll in Gaza surpasses 25,000 while Israel announces the death of another hostage</a></p><p>Netanyahu's refusal to consider a permanent ceasefire in exchange for Israeli hostages held by HAMAS has severely damaged Israel's international standing and largely wiped out the sympathy people throughout the world felt for the victims of HAMAS' brutal October 7th attack. </p><p>Even the United States, Israel's strongest ally, has decried the large number of civilians casualties in Gaza. The Biden administration has called for establishing a Palestinian state when the war ends - an outcome abhorred by Netanyahu and his far right supporters - and is considering slowing arms deliveries to Israel to pressure Netanyahu to wind down the war. <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-mulling-using-arms-deliveries-to-israel-as-leverage-to-pressure-netanyahu-report/3121602#">US mulling using arms deliveries to Israel as leverage to pressure Netanyahu: Report</a> </p><p>Netanyahu's failure to delineate when the war will end and detail a post-HAMAS Gaza and who will govern it, together with the large numbers of civilian deaths caused by Israel's bombing and shelling of northern and southern Gaza, has incentivized Iran and its local proxies to enter the fray. This has taken 3 forms: 1) constant shelling of northern Israel by Lebanon's powerful Hizballah militia; 2) attacks by Iranian trained and funded militias in Iraq on US forces stationed there; and 3) attacks by Iranian funded Houthi forces in northern Yemen on ships navigating the Gulf of Aden, the Bab al-Mandab entrance to the Red Sea and the southern Red Sea itself. </p><p>The Hizballah shelling has taken a social psychological and economic toll on the residents of northern Israel and increased the desire of hawkish members of Netanyahu's cabinet to attack the militia and push it back from the Israel-Lebanon border. However, others Israelis remember the fiasco which resulted from Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon and the human and material losses it suffered until it withdrew its forces in 2000.</p><p>Hizballah today is a very formidable military force. Both Iran which funds it, and the militia, seek to avoid an all out war with Israel. Lebanon suffered greatly during the 2006 Israel-Hizballah war with much of its infrastructure damaged by Israeli air raids. Today, Lebanon is a failed state, with its economy in shambles and 40% of the population living in poverty. But an Israeli ground attack seeking to push Hizballah forces back into Lebanon would leave the militia no choice but to respond. </p><p>With over 150,000 missiles supplied by Iran, many with precision targeting capabilities, no place in Israel would be safe from Hizballah missiles which could overwhelm Israel's "Iron Dome" anti-missile system. Under such circumstances, the United States would feel pressured to intervene in the fighting. Such an eventuality could bring Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in neighboring Syria into the conflict leading to a regional war in the Middle East.</p><p>Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping is causing serious economic damage to global shipping. Insurance rates for ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab en route to the Suez Canal have skyrocketed. Many shipping companies are rerouting their cargo around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Houthi attacks. This decision increases travel time from the Gulf of Aden to Europe and the United States by 40 days, adding millions of dollars to shipping costs, constraining supply chains and raising prices to consumers.</p><p>Operation Prosperity Guardian, an international effort organized by the Pentagon to interdict Houthi drones and missies and to destroy their caches of arms, has thus far been unsuccessful. An invasion of Yemeni territory held by Houthi fighters - battle hardened, by years of fighting with Saudi and UAE forces - would embroil the US and Western partners in yet another unending military adventure. </p><p>The continuing attacks by Iranian funded militias in Iraq and Syria on US forces forces stationed in the region finally resulted in the deaths of three service members at Tower 22, a base at the intersection of the Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi borders. The Biden administration has promised a strong military response to these deaths. </p><p>Meanwhile, GOP hawks in the US Senate, including Lindsay Graham (R-SC), John Cornyn (R-TX) and Tom Cotton (R-AK), have called for the United States to strike Iran inside its borders. However, such a strike could lead Iran to close the Straits of Hormuz at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, thereby choking off much of the world's oil supplies. Such action in response to an American attack on Iran itself could provoke a regional war in the Middle East.</p><p>As I argued in an earlier post, all the problems mentioned above, including the HAMAS attack, could have been avoided if Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to establish an independent Palestinian state. There are numerous moderate Palestinian leaders who, since the 1990s, have recognized Israel's right to exist as a sovereign state. Among the most prominent are Mustafa Barghuti, Salam Fayyad (a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at Princeton University's School of Public and International Studies this academic year), and Sari Nusseibeh. Establishing an independent Palestinian state under the control of secular moderates would have helped marginalize terrorist groups such as HAMAS, which is really more loyal to Iran than it is to the Palestinian people. <a href="https://new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2023/10/beyond-historical-amnesia-revenge-and.html">Beyond Historical Amnesia, Revenge and the Good-Evil Binary: Solving the Israel-Palestinian Conflict Once and for All</a></p><p>The question now becomes: when will rational, solution-oriented leadership on both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute take control of the process to bring this 75 year old conflict to a final, peaceful resolution?</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-5882206945295358842023-12-31T22:00:00.000-05:002023-12-31T22:00:54.846-05:00The Day After: Israel at the Crossroads after the Gazan War<p>The brutal attack by HAMAS terrorists on October 7 dealt a body blow to Israeli society. Perhaps the most damaging aspect for the long-term was to have burst the bubble of Israeli exceptionalism. The dramatic failure of the Israeli army underscored that Israel's security cannot be built on border walls, high tech armaments and ignoring the Palestinians' desire for their own state. Israel lives in a dangerous neighborhood which won't change even with the defeat of HAMAS.</p><p>What position will the Israeli government take after the war with HAMAS ends? The policies followed what ever political coalition is in power following the war will most likely decide Israel's future. Its forst gaol must be to stop the march towards a "Torah state." </p><p>Politicized religion, in what ever country it has appeared, invariably leads to extremism. Because the so-called religious precepts invoked by those who use religion to achieve political ends are said to be the "will of God," they can't be challenged. If they are, those who mount. such challenges are attacking God and religion.</p><p>The phony religious extremists in Israel who continue to push for more settlements, while they seize Palestinian land and attack Palestinian farmers and destroy their crops, are building an ever stronger power base. This increased power is evident in the most right-wing government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu which has ever ruled Israel since its founding in 1948. </p><p>The government's promoting of violence has created an "open season" on Palestinians as Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Giver, has distributed 10,000 rifles to settlers in the West Bank. Over 300 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since October 7th. While some have been youth in refugee camps who have fought with IDF soldiers, most have been unarmed farmers, often in remote villages, who lack any protection.</p><p>Settler attacks offer only one outcome - the spread of violence in the West Bank. Such violence will only lead to more deaths and cries for vengeance. In effect, what Ben Giver and the far-right extremist settlers policies are promoting is the opening of another front in the ongoing war with HAMAS. Further violence strengthen HAMAS' argument that armed conflict is the only option open to Palestinians to end Israeli occupation of the West Bank.</p><p>The Torah or theocratic state option will transform the Israel-Palestine struggle into a religious one when in reality it is a struggle over land. Iran would like nothing more than to frame the Israel-Palestine dispute as one between "Muslims." As it designation of the so-called Quds (Jerusalem) Force, a wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran focuses on "liberating Jerusalem," the third most holy city in Islam," rather than supporting the creation of an independent democratic Palestinian state.</p><p>In ideological transforming the the Israel-Palestine struggle to a pseudo-religious conflict, Iran can appeal to Arab Muslim youth throughout the Arab world who are angered by Israel's treatment of Palestinians in occupied territories in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.</p><p>Netanyahu's policy of continuing the war in Gaza for "several months" and creating a security zone along the Gaza-Egyptian border is certainly to be rejected by Egypt. Keeping Israeli troops in Gaza is a recipe for continued guerrilla attacks against them and counter-attacks which will further inflame public opinion throughout the Middle East and beyond.</p><p><br /></p>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-55106785118881532742023-11-30T22:31:00.014-05:002023-12-31T10:17:27.937-05:00Blowback! Israel and the United States' Self Inflicted Harm by not Establishing an Independent Palestinian State<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj00oNJ4taFWnu6u_l6L9IRwxS57g76jIie3pbvbu0ShyphenhyphenrCUgvVHJhAJdlKJAs4HKU00qq6ytm17MpHngm5UW4szzAKq-yB6Z3Y4vtLkUcaZo4gS1mgzTZeUiKVzFsYG_QTSMWNu1PX5OmO7Wf9Z4idrhZiAAm4SXonppVQDHvOFuO-SIM26bHuZ0tvMdOx/s1200/October_2023_Gaza%E2%88%92Israel_conflict.svg.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1039" data-original-width="1200" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj00oNJ4taFWnu6u_l6L9IRwxS57g76jIie3pbvbu0ShyphenhyphenrCUgvVHJhAJdlKJAs4HKU00qq6ytm17MpHngm5UW4szzAKq-yB6Z3Y4vtLkUcaZo4gS1mgzTZeUiKVzFsYG_QTSMWNu1PX5OmO7Wf9Z4idrhZiAAm4SXonppVQDHvOFuO-SIM26bHuZ0tvMdOx/w400-h346/October_2023_Gaza%E2%88%92Israel_conflict.svg.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />If Israel, with the assistance of the United States, had created an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank following the 1993 Oslo Accords, there would be no war today between HAMAS and the Israeli army. The wind would have been taken out of the extremists' sails once an independent Palestinian state existed and controlled most of the West Bank and East Jerusalem.<p></p><p>What follows is an analysis of how both Israel and the United States have engaged in self-inflicted harm by not establishing an independent Palestinian state as was agreed upon in principle with the signing of the Oslo Accords by Israeli and Palestinian negotiators in 1993. </p><p>Because radical Islamists, whether Palestinian (i.e., HAMAS), or non-Palestinian, reject democracy and the nation-state, they are the enemies of Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and its dominant faction, Fatah. Had the Oslo Accords led to the establishment of a Palestinian state under the aegis of the PLO, Israeli and Palestinian forces could have joined in a common effort to eradicate the rise of radical Islamist extremists, if they did find a foothold among some sectors of Palestinian society. </p><p>A far fetched idea? As of today, Palestinian National Authority President Mahmud Abbas (who should more correctly be referred to as the PNA's ruling autocrat) provides policing services to Israeli security forces in the West Bank in return for not being pressured to hold elections and being allowed to engage in large scale corruption. As a result, Abbas is reviled by Palestinians and would be thrown out of office if he did allow the elections which he has prevented from taking place <a href="https://themedialine.org/top-stories/ngo-report-exposes-corruption-within-president-abbas-inner-circle-prompting-pa-backlash/">NGO Report Exposes Corruption Within President Abbas’ Inner Circle, Prompting PA Backlash</a></p><p><i>The threat posed by illegal settlements in the West Bank</i> A second way in which both Israel and the United States are guilty of self-inflicted wounds is to have allowed illegal settlements in the West Bank to proliferate. Since Benjamin Netanyahu and his right wing Likud party took power in the early 2000s, we have seen "creeping annexationism," namely the speeding up of building of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, often on land seized from Palestinians living there. To add insult to injury, most of these settlements have been built with Palestinian labor. <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_norm/---relconf/documents/meetingdocument/wcms_845252.pdf">The situation of workers of the occupied Arab territories</a></p><p>Netanyahu and Israel's far-right belive that there will be a "tipping point" at which time there will be so many settlements in the West Bank, that it will be impossible to establish an independent Palestinian state. Because of the number of settlements is already so large, and Palestinians must drive hours to complete an automobile journey that normally would take 15-30 minutes. Palestinians must use special roads which circumvent settlements and which now prevent the creation of a state with a contiguous area. <a href="https://www.btselem.org/publications/summaries/200205_land_grab">Land Grab: Israel's Settlement Policy in the West Bank</a> </p><p>As the settlement movement has grown, recently exponentially, the United States has looked the other way. At most, presidents from George W. Bush to Joe Biden have issued only tepid criticism of settlement expansion, which is illegal under international law, or politely asked that it be curtailed. However, no president has enacted any policy to sanction Israel for building these settlements. </p><p>Knowing that there are no consequences for building new settlement, Israel 's settlement movement has created a powerful political bloc in Israeli politcis comprised of the 700,000 settlers, who live in the West Bank, often with low interest mortgages and generous government subsidies. Under Belalzel Smotrich, Israel's far-right Finance Minister, huge amounts of funds have been designated for settlement expansion. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-finance-minister-defends-settlement-funds-budget-row-2023-11-27/#:~:text=Smotrich">Israel's finance minister defends settlement funds in budget row</a></p><p><i>The Israeli economy is under threat </i><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-economic-growth-slow-2-2023-16-2024-due-war-finance-ministry-2023-11-23/">Israel's economic growth to slow to 2% in 2023 due to war -finance ministry</a>. Already, Israel's Central Bank and Ministry of Finance project a decline in the GDP for 2024. Despite the large amount of reserves Israel possesses from several years of rapid economic growth, the problem is deeper that just the GDP. Israel has had to move large numbers of citizens from both the northern and southern borders due to Hizballah shelling, on the one hand, and the war with HAMAS, on the other. </p><p>Many Israelis who have been moved from the north have indicated that they don't want to return to the area because they fear Hizballah shelling. Not only could this "shrink" the size of Israel as Thomas Friedman argues, but it will come with a negative economic cost. Not only will production in the vacated areas be lost, but Israels moved to other areas will need new housing and upkeep until able to reestablish themselves and their families <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/28/opinion/israel-palestinians-war-iran.html">Understanding the True Nature of the Hamas-Israel War</a></p><p>When HAMAS terrorists attacked the south on October 7th, they massacred 23 Thai and Nepalese farm workers, leading foreign farmworkers to leave Israel. Many former farmworkers have indicated that they don't want to return to Israel. At the moment Israel needs 10,000 farm workers to help harvest crops. While many volunteers have stepped in, this can only be a temporary solution. Israel receives 15% of ots revenues from agricultural production. How the war with HAMAS will affect Israel's agrarian sector in the long term has yet to be seen, especially it it continues for several more months.</p><p><i>Post-war governance in Gaza</i> Who will govern and what nation-states and agencies will rebuild Gaza? These are key questions The Gaza Strip was already poverty stricken before the HAMAS-Israel War. Now most of the population lacks any means to support itself. Two-thirds of Gaza's buildings have been damaged or destroyed and most of the businesses which functioned before October 7th are no longer operational. </p><p>How will Palestinians living in Gaza rule themselves? Benjamin Netanyahu wants Israel to maintain an "indefinite presence" in the enclave. The United States and the global community strongly oppose this proposal. Further, who will rebuild Gazan society? With homes, businesses and infrastructure seriously damaged or destroyed, there is no way for Gazan Palestinians to sustain themselves.</p><p>If Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states are to contribute funds to rebuild Gaza, there must be some sort of Palestinian state under the auspices of the PNA/PLO. The United States and its Western allies support the idea of revitalizing the PNA (read rid ot of the sclerotic and corrupt leadership of the aged Mahmoud Abbas). </p><p>However, an expanded PNA which would control a post-war Gaza is certainly going to be opposed by the far-right members of Netanyahu's current government. That Netanyahu's Likud Party has lost a third of its members and the Prime Minister himself only enjoys ratings of 25% among Israeli voters, suggests that a new government more favorable to the Biden administration's initiative might take office after the war ends and agree to a revitalized and expanded PNA. </p><p>In my following post, "The Day After: Israel at a Crossroads after the Gazan War," I will explore the challenges Israel faces when the war with HAMAS ends.</p><p>The Biden administration's foreign policy team is already overwhelmed. It is helping Ukraine fight a war against Russia, seeking to assure sanctions imposed on Russia are applied globally, working to keep China from acquiring advanced technology which could put it on a parity militarily with the United States, and struggling to contain a migrant crisis at the southern border caused by authoritarian rule and climate change in Central and South America. Now the Gaza crisis looms large and must be addressed. Will the US' foreign policy and intelligence communities be overwhelmed?</p><p>Ever since Bill Clinton tried to translate the 1993 Oslo Accords into an independent Palestinian state which would have solved the Israel-Palestine dispute, subsequent administrations have ignored. Donald Trump poured oil on the fire by not including the dispute in the Abraham Accords and by moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Each administration thought that the dispute could be ignored and would somehow magically disappear.</p><p>The Israel-HAMAS War could cost Joe Biden the 2024 presidential election. If Arab-American voters in Michigan fail to vote for Biden and the 18-30 voter demographic-the demographic which put Obama in office in 2008-Biden may lose to the presumptive GOP nominee, Donald Trump. Trump would certainly favor the Israeli far right which would preclude any solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict and harm Israel by encouraging more secular Israelis to leave the country. </p><p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/opinion/israel-free-speech-hamas-palestine.html?searchResultPosition=1">Israel Is Silencing Internal Critics</a><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-99005377512611742023-10-31T22:16:00.097-04:002023-11-15T15:49:50.962-05:00Beyond Historical Amnesia, Revenge and the Good-Evil Binary: Solving the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute Once and For All<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDqzoP8BONfCjncqFWoppZ6L9HPPmcOGSNzATx-sPVssMiDSE8eoh2P62Ndk9H-EbNZ9Y-0lyo2lhA2jV5QoccyVznjHQO8-RA_k2S-fHSBMBQNeNOOY9bqC_j2nHF66D7dKa1V3PwxYx1aG90JX38O5iAAyr4jL4uAplcupBJE-yD8fyMPoxouUV3Ttrh/s1566/HAMAS%20attack%20on%20Israel%202023-10-11T090202Z_1518494026_RC29Q3AECXHG_RTRMADP_3_ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS-GAZA_ylusvv.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="881" data-original-width="1566" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDqzoP8BONfCjncqFWoppZ6L9HPPmcOGSNzATx-sPVssMiDSE8eoh2P62Ndk9H-EbNZ9Y-0lyo2lhA2jV5QoccyVznjHQO8-RA_k2S-fHSBMBQNeNOOY9bqC_j2nHF66D7dKa1V3PwxYx1aG90JX38O5iAAyr4jL4uAplcupBJE-yD8fyMPoxouUV3Ttrh/w320-h180/HAMAS%20attack%20on%20Israel%202023-10-11T090202Z_1518494026_RC29Q3AECXHG_RTRMADP_3_ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS-GAZA_ylusvv.jpeg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Israeli Personnel Recover Bodies of civilians killed <br />by HAMAS during its October 7th attack</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>The barbaric October 7th HAMAS attack on Israel placed the Israeli-Palestinian dispute in center stage of Middle East politics once again. </span><span>After 75 years of conflict, including wars in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, 2006 and now 2023, it's time to end the dispute once and for all. How can that be accomplished?</span><span> </span></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/10/27/1208694837/two-state-solution-israeli-palestinian-conflict">Biden wants a two-state solution for Israeli-Palestinian peace. Is it still possible?</a></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">The massacre of Israeli citizens in southern Israel by HAMAS terrorists on October 7th was especially tragic given that many of the Israelis who were killed (including a number of Palestinian Israelis despite the fact they were Arabs) had been working for many years to achieve a peaceful resolution of the Israel-Palestinian dispute. Some Israelis who were killed or kidnapped had been transporting Gazan Palestinians who had serious illnesses to Israeli hospitals for treatment.<br /></span><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">How can the conflict be solved? The first order of business is to confront the main drivers of the conflict. These include what I call the historical amnesia surrounding the conflict, the tit-for-tat revenge that follows each flare up of violence, especially the killing of over 1400 Israelis and more than 9000 Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank (as of this writing), and the reduction of the conflict to a binary of one defined by the juxtaposition of "good vs. evil." </span><div><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikuy8m-l4v3V3lcNGe75zVd0pxe8Lyn9j5776aTy5K3zeHJnoNtcQ76pI34zRbd4BS-O0U4IvsIsxwDwQwEIhVyZha3S-aga73dXSK00sBtvorfc9P0rmJ0RzvWJo-mZpTyOOGeNmHujq1s9aKB-2kbjCIopReXH5AKr16qstVXOlOodK2l1WeCAqWMlnp/s620/HAMAS%20Isrreal%20War%20al-Jabaliya%20Camp%20hit%20103123%20im-878762.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="349" data-original-width="620" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikuy8m-l4v3V3lcNGe75zVd0pxe8Lyn9j5776aTy5K3zeHJnoNtcQ76pI34zRbd4BS-O0U4IvsIsxwDwQwEIhVyZha3S-aga73dXSK00sBtvorfc9P0rmJ0RzvWJo-mZpTyOOGeNmHujq1s9aKB-2kbjCIopReXH5AKr16qstVXOlOodK2l1WeCAqWMlnp/w320-h180/HAMAS%20Isrreal%20War%20al-Jabaliya%20Camp%20hit%20103123%20im-878762.jpeg" width="320" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;">al-Jabaliya Refugee Camp in northern Gaza after <br />Israeli bombing on October 31st</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: medium;">Following the 1993 Oslo Accords between Israelis and Palestinian negotiators, the policy suggestions offered here, discussed later in this post, call for a two-state solution. The accords must be implemented after the current Israel-HAMAS War ends. What would this agreement look like? It would entail a peaceful (demilitarized) Palestinian state, occupying most of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip living side by side with Israel. Both Israel and the Palestinian state would share Jerusalem as their capital. </span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span><i>HAMAS is not a Palestinian nationalist organization </i>What do I mean when I argue HAMAS is not Palestinian nationalist organization? Simply put, HAMAS, an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, rejects the idea of democracy and nationalism. Aligned with Iran, Lebanon's Hizballah, and financed by Qatar, the so-called "Axis of Resistance," HAMAS seeks to create an Islamic state in the Middle East, echoing the goal of the Islamic state's so-called "Caliphate" which controlled much of Syria and Iraq from 2014 to 2019. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>HAMAS' acronym denotes the Islamic Resistance Movement (</span><i>Harakat al-Muqawwama al-Islamiya</i><span>). The term Palestinian is absent from its title. Its name stands in sharp contrast with the secular Palestine Liberation Organization which seeks to establish a democratic state in Palestine in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza and has recognized Israel.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">HAMAS, like other radical Islamists (often referred to as <i>jihadis</i>) states that God is the only source of mankind's laws. To vote on laws, as occurs in democratic states, is to contravene the Islamic religion. Further, the nation-state is a Western creation which seeks to divide and weaken the Muslim world. Thus, the all Muslim majority countries need to disavow secular nationalism and join to create a global Islamic <i>umma</i>, or political entity.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The core problem with the political system HAMAS' advocates is its rejection by the overwhelming majority of Muslims. In a poll conducted in July, 2023, 62% of Gazans rejected HAMAS's rule in Gaza. Because the organization is extremely repressive and tolerates no dissent, the poll undercounted the true number of Palestinians in Gaza who reject HAMAS rule. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Ironically, while HAMAS' popularity has grown among West Bank youth who have clashed with Israeli settlers, the Palestine Liberation Organization which controls the Palestine National Authority in the West Bank is the preferred form of rule by Gazans. With the horrors of Israel's bombing of Gaza, there is little doubt that HAMAS' popularity has reached a new low.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>Three Palestines </i>The Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem differ significantly from the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and from Israel's Palestinian citizens. Much of the Palestinian leadership in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is dominated by families, mostly Muslim but many Christian as well, who trace their roots back 100s of years in cities such as Jerusalem, Hebron (al-Khalil), Nazareth, Bethlehem, Ramallah and Jericho. Many of these families and highly educated and well-to-do.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The Gazans, on the other hand, are largely comprised of Palestinians who were forced to leave their homes along the Mediterranean and move south into the densely populated Egyptian controlled Gaza Strip during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Most Palestinian Israelis are deeply sympathetic with their fellow compatriots in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza. However, in many conversations I have had with these Israeli citizens, none expressed the desire to renounce their Israeli citizenship and become citizens of a newly established Palestinian state. Palestinian Israelis, 20% of Israel's population, resent their second class status but prefer the political freedoms and education and employment opportunities they enjoy in Israel.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>Overcoming historical amnesia: Arab-Israeli wars </i>Most of the world lacks understanding of the Palestinian conflict. Simply put, it is a dispute between two people over one piece of land. To solve that problem, each party to the conflict must be able to exercise its legitimate rights to territorial sovereignty, political stability and prosperity.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">After World War I, the newly formed League of Nations awarded the two most powerful colonial powers, Great Britain and France, "mandates" (colonial control) over territories formerly part of the now defeated Ottoman Empire. Britain received a 30 year Mandate in Palestine during which time its task was to "teach" the local populace how to become and administer a modern-nation-state. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">With the end of the British Mandate over Palestine in 1948, the newly formed United Nations voted to approve Resolution 181 in November 1947 which divided Palestine into Palestinian and Jewish states. Neither the Arab Palestinian population nor the surrounding Arab states accepted the UN resolution. Once Israel declared itself an independent state on May 14, 1948, the armies of Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Iraq invaded Palestine.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The war did not go well for the Arab armies. They had been sent into battle not to help the Palestinians but rather to prop up weak governments, especially the Egyptian monarchy, and to seize land designated as part of the UN mandated Palestinian state. To call the Arab forces "armies" requires a stretch of imagination. They possessed limited and often defective arms and should be more accurately described as a glorified local police force. They lacked the capacity to conduct a military campaign beyond their national borders.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Zionist forces, on the other hand, had better training and motivation and did not suffer from lengthy supply lines. In contrast to the Arab armies, the newly constituted Israeli army was much more egalitarian in terms of the relationship between officers and enlisted fighters and ideologically unified. Some members had experienced combat in WWII. It later became clear that the new Israeli government had been in contact with King Abdullah of Jordan whose army was led by a British officer, Sir John Glubb. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Commenting on Iraq's army which fought under Jordanian command (both Iraq and Jordan were at the time ruled by Hashimite monarchies), Iraqi General 'Abd al-Karim Qasim indicated that, despite making significant gains against Israeli forces, Glubb Pasha told his Jordanian and Iraqi forces to cease fighting when they reached the city of Hebron (al-Khalil) in the West Bank. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Qasim asked why their military advantage was not being pursed but received no answer. He later concluded that Jordan's monarch King Abdullah had cut a deal with Israel to seize Palestinian land which it later did when annexing the West Bank and East Jerusalem after the 1948 war ended in a truce.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In 1952, a group of Egyptian officers overthrew the monarchy of Kinq Faruq. The monarchy, which was established in the early 1800s by an Ottoman officer, Muhammad 'Ali Pasha, was despised by Egyptians. It was highly corrupt and seen as subservient to Great Britain. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In 1882, British troops invaded Egypt, ostensibly to assure that the Ottoman Viceroy Ismael repay the bonds which Egypt had contracted with European banks to build the Suez Canal. It also helped suppress an army uprising where mid-level Egyptian army officers sought to rid the country of corrupt foreign rule, namely the Muhammad Ali dynasty. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">European powers had pressured the Khedive to build the Suez Canal which placed severe constraints on Egypt's finances. There was no Western banking system in the Middle East and thus the interest rates charged on the bonds issued by Western banks were exorbitant. When British forces invaded Egypt, the real purpose was to gain control of the recently constructed Suez Canal, insuring their access via the Canal to the East India Company which exercised control over India and the South Asian continent.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">When Great Britain invaded Egypt in 1882, it promised its troops would leave after several months. This promise was disingenuous as British forces remained in Egypt and forced the Egyptian monarchy to sign a lease on the Suez Canal which would expire in 1964. Throughout the period leading up to the 1952 coup d'etat, Britain played an outsize role in Egyptian politics.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">How did this history affect the Arab-Israeli dispute? The 1952 Egyptian coup was caused by the anger of the army at its defeat in the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. It did not reflect anti-Israeli attitudes because Egypt had had an ambiguous relationship to the Arab world to that point, considering itself a unique country given its lengthy historical heritage, and thus unbeholden to any other culture. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">After the 1952 coup, President Gamal Abdel Nasser (Jamal 'Abd al-Nasir) focused exclusively on consolidating his power against Egypt's powerful Muslim Brotherhood which tried to assassinate him in 1954. Although no friend of the Jewish state, Israel wasn't on the Egyptian military regime's political radar screen.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Nationalist pressure had been building to expel the British from the Suez Canal during the 1950s prior to its lease expiration in 1964. Bowing to this pressure, which included violent confrontation between Muslim Brothers and other nationalists with British troops along the Canal, Nasser decided to nationalize it in July 1956.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Great Britain organized what became the Tripartite Invasion of Egypt in October 1956 - the second Arab-Israeli War. British Prime Minister Anthony Eden sought France's assistance. France, like Britain, wanted to revive its colonial influence in the Middle East and thought Nasser was arming Algerian guerrillas in their independence struggle against France. Israel, which sought access to the Suez Canal, was also invited to join the coalition.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Israel began the attack on Egypt in October 1956. British and France forces soon joined the invasion. In a short time, Egyptian forces were defeated. However, the tripartite victory was a pyrrhic one. The United States and the Soviet Union, concerned that Great Britain and France sought to reassert their power in the Middle East, organized a United Nations Security Council vote which forced Britain, France and Israel to withdraw from Egypt.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Nasser emerged a hero from the 1956 war. Encouraged by this success, he soon began espousing a Pan-Arab ideology and overt hostility to Israel. In 1958, Egypt joined with Syria to form the United Arab Republic. His new Pan Arab ideology was reflected in the change of Egypt's name from the Republic of Egypt to the United Arab Republic, and in other aspects of Egyptian society, such as the Egypt Air becoming the United Arab Airlines. Egypt and Israel had now become serious enemies as Nasser increased support for the Palestinian cause.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In 1967, Nasser began to be criticized for not forcefully supporting the Palestinian cause. To create the illusion of support for the Palestinians, he removed the United Nations peacekeeping force along the Egyptian-Israeli border, which had been put in place after the 1956 war, and declared that the Gulf of Aqaba was now closed to Israeli shipping. This closure was meaningless because Egypt didn't have the ability to prevent Israeli ships from entering the Gulf. Meanwhile, Nasser sent a high level delegation to Washington to inform Lyndon Johnson administration that he was not going to attack Israel.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Israel, however, used Nasser's moves and accompanying harsh anti-Israeli rhetoric as an excuse to attack Egyptian, Jordanian and Syrian forces on July 5, 1967. Its well planned military campaign quickly defeated Arab forces. Egypt's army had not been put on a war footing. Indeed, the air force high command had been at a Cairo party the night before the attack. The war ended in 6 days, humiliating Nasser and placing Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, the West Bank and East Jerusalem and Syria's Golan Heights under Israeli control.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Palestinians realized after the 1967 debacle that Arab nations would not be coming to their rescue. The Palestine Liberation Organization, and its dominant member, Fatah, increased its policy of armed struggle. Attacks launched from Jordan led to severe counter-measures by Israel. In 1970, the so-called Black September, Jordan's King Hussein, fearful for his monarchy, ordered the army to expel Palestinian forces from the country.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Moving to south Lebanon, an extremely mountainous region with few roads, Palestinian guerillas began to attack Israel from the north. In 1982, ostensibly to destroy Palestinian bases in south Lebanon, Israeli forces reached the outskirts of Beirut. This advance, which sought to destroy the Palestine Liberation Organization in Beirut, was far beyond the 35 miles that General Ariel Sharon had informed Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin would be the distance the Israeli army would penetrate Lebanon.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">With Israeli forces in control of the area surrounding Beirut, right-wing Christian militias, opposed to a Palestinian presence in Lebanon, attacked the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps in September, 1982, killing over 3000 Palestinians and Shi'a Arabs during a 3 day period. Because the Israeli army could have prevented the attack, General Ariel Sharon was blamed for the deaths. The massacres spawned a new Israeli movement, Peace Now (<i>Shalom Achshav</i>), which organized large demonstrations against the war. Ultimately, the invasion of Lebanon brought down Mehachem Begin's government. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Perhaps the most consequential war after the June 1967 war was the Arab-Israeli War of October 1973. Egyptian and Syrian forces began a joint attack across the Suez Canal and in the Golan Heights during the Jewish celebration of You Kippur, catching the Israeli army completely off guard. Israeli soldiers captured by the Egyptian army created an image of Arab military success unseen to date. Nevertheless, the Israeli army was able to regroup and ultimately win the war by ousting Syrian forces from the Golan Heights and penetrating the Egyptian Delta.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The 1973 War ended in a number of positive outcomes. The Camp David Accords of 1978 led Israel to withdrawal from the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip. Egypt became the first state to recognize Israel, followed by Jordan in 1994. It can be argued that these developments set a precedent for the Abraham Accords, concluded in 2020, which led Bahrayn and the United Arab Emirates to establish diplomatic realtions with Israel followed by Morocco and Sudan as well.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>Revenge and the Violent Tit-for Tat </i>Throughout the period after 1948, Palestinians saw no progress towards establishing an independent state as promised by the United Nations in November, 1947. During the 1970s, Israel began building settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, which were illegal under international law. Large numbers of Palestinians displaced in 1948 and then more in 1967 saw little hope in the future. This hopelessness motivated Palestinian youth to join extremist organizations which attacked Israelis inside and outside Israel.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In May of 1972, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) recruited 3 members of the Red Army to attack Lod (now David Ben Gurion) Airport, killing 26 people and wounding 80. In September 1972, Palestinian gunmen from a faction called Black September attacked the quarters of the Israeli team at the Olympic Village in Munich, Germany. Eleven athletes died as well as 5 Black September attackers.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">During the 1970s, a number of commercial planes were hijacked by the PFLP to free Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails and highlight the Palestinian cause. Subsequent attacks on Israeli civilians in restaurants and buses and Israeli West Bank settlements further hardened attitudes in Israel against agreeing to establish an independent Palestinian state. Meanwhile, Israeli operatives from Mossad (Israel's equivalent ot the CIA) assassinated Palestinian leaders in Lebanon and elsewhere in revenge.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Israel became concerned in the 1970s when mayors were elected in West Bank cities who were supporters of the PLO. In retrospect, Israel followed a flawed and counter-productive policy of supporting Islamists opposed to the secular and leftist PLO. Viewing them as religious Muslims primarily concerned with studying the Qur'an, successive Israeli governments laid the basis for the rise of HAMAS by supporting its founder, the late blind shaykh Ahmad Yasin. When the PLO finally agreed to recognize Israel in 1990, radical Islamists, such as HAMAS vowed to keep up the struggle to eliminate what they call "the Zionist entity." <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123275572295011847">How Israel Helped to Spawn Hamas</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>Israeli- Palestine relations post-2000 </i>When the 1993 Oslo Accords weren't implemented and Israeli politics moved to the right, especially under governments where Benjamin Netanyahu was prime minister, settlements in the West Bank expanded and efforts were made to weaken the Palestine National Authority, controlled by Fatah, to avoid having to establish an independent Palestinian state and realize a two-state solution.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Once Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, elections held in 2006 placed HAMAS in control, largely because the PLO's Fatah organization lacked historical roots in the region. After the election, PLO members of the Gazan parliament were killed, often by HAMAS members throwing them off the top of the parliament building. Other PLO members fled Gaza in fear and HAMAS was now in complete control. No elections have been held in Gaza since 2006.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Rather than trying to undermine Gaza, Israeli governments allowed Qatar, a supporter of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and other radical Islamist groups, to donate large amounts of funds to Gaza which only strengthened HAMAS control. Some Gazan residents were allowed to work in southern Israel and elsewhere, especially in the agricultural sector. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">At the same time that HAMAS was consolidating its hold over Gaza, and ending elections, a new and powerful movement, Hizballah (Party of God) was developing among Shi'a who comprise the majority of the population of southern Lebanon. Angered at the Israeli occupation of south Lebanon from 1982 until Israel withdrew in 2000, the Shi'a supported Hizballah which became a new supporter of the Palestinian cause.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">With military and financial support from Iran, which became the so-called "champion" of "liberating Jerusalem," Hizballah's attacks on northern Israel led to another war in 2006. Hizballah rockets rained down on Israeli towns and villages forcing a large scale evacuation of civilians to areas farther to the south. The war ended with a large scale destruction of southern Lebanon, but not the defeat of Hizballah.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>A solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict - the need to end the cycle of violence and revenge. </i>There is only one way to end the Israel-Palestine conflict and that is to enact the Oslo Accords negotiated in secret between Israeli and Palestinian representatives in Norway in 1993. Although the Accords failed to mention an independent Palestinian state, that was the assumption underlying the Accords. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/09/opinion/israel-hamas-war.html?searchResultPosition=2">I Have Never Been to This Israel Before</a></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Establishing an independent Palestinian state will require a strong coordinated international effort. In addition to Israel and the Palestinians, the United States, the European Union and Saudi Arabia will need to play major roles. Pressure will be required to force both parties to the negotiating table. It is in the international community's interest to begin peace negotiations once the current HAMAS-Israel war ends. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/01/business/economy/israel-gaza-war-global-economy.html">Risk of a Wider Middle East War Threatens a ‘Fragile’ World Economy</a> </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">First and foremost, Israelis will need to vote Benjamin Netanyahu and his current far-right cabinet out of office. As of this writing, Netanyahu enjoys a 20% approval rate among Israelis. After an independent commission reviews the disastrous security failure which enabled HAMAS terrorists to slaughter Israelis, Netanyahu and his far right supporters will constitute even greater tarnished political goods.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Because the United States will face opposition from the right wing of the Republican Party and Christian evangelicals if it tries to pressure Israel to establish an independent Palestinian state, Saudi Arabia will be needed to play a central role in support of the two-state solution.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In 2022, the Israeli economy was ranked by the OECD as one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Now Israel's economy is predicted to shrink 10% during the remainder of 2023. A number of firms in Israel's tech industry had already been leaving Israel due to Netanyahu's campaign to strip Israel's Supreme Court of its power and centralize control of the government in the Knesset's majority coalition. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-economy-grew-65-2022-seen-near-3-2023-2023-02-16/#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20the%20average%20growth,an%20OECD%20average%20of%202.6%25.">Israel economy grew 6.5% in 2022, seen near 3% in 2023</a></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The expected investment from the United Arab Emirates after the Abraham Accords and the financial benefits of officially establishing diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia are now on hold. With 360,000 men and women mobilized for military duty during the current war with HAMAS, many employees are no longer reporting for work in Israeli companies. Ultra-orthodox men don't serve in the military and lack the professional skills to fill the jobs lost while IDF soldiers are in the front line. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/business/dealbook/israel-reservists-start-ups.html?searchResultPosition=9">‘Start-Up Nation’ Is Tested as Israel’s Reservists Leave Their Desks</a></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Agricultural workers from Thailand have left the country and large numbers of civilians have been evacuated from the southern and northern parts of Israel. As an Israeli colleague in Tel Aviv told me recently, foreign investment is drying up. Clearly, Israel will be hurt economically by the war with HAMAS.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Saudi Arabia wants access to high end American arms, nuclear power technology and a defense treaty to assure it protection from Iran. Possessing one of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, and a desire to reduce its dependence on the United States, and recently turning to China for economic development assistance, the United States has every incentive to accommodate the kingdom's goals. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/31/middleeast/saudi-china-get-closer-mime-intl/index.html">China and Saudi Arabia are getting closer. Should the US be worried?</a></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Here's where a three way accord could lead to peace between Israel and the Palestinians. The United States would meet Saudi Arabia's needs but with the proviso that it establish formal ties with Israel. Israel, for its part, would receive a large influx of Saudi investment designed to link emerging Saudi tech firms with Israeli tech firms, which are among the most advanced in the world. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Israel would be flush with funds and Saudi Arabia could make a major leap forward in implementing Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman's Vision 2030 which seeks to diversify the Saudi economy away from dependence on oil. If the UAE joined a Saudi-Israeli technology and financial nexus, that partnership could become one of the most powerful in the world.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">However, Israel would have to agree to establish a Palestinian state, granting Palestinians the right to have East Jerusalem as their shared capital with Israel and receive land in the Negev Desert in exchange for allowing settlements near Jerusalem to remain under Israeli control.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">A new Palestinian leadership would need to replace the corrupt and inept administration of the Palestine National Authority (PNA) currently run by President Mahmoud Abbas, who is reviled by most West Bank Palestinians. Returning the former PNA prime minister, Salam Fayyad, to office, a Palestinian leader who is highly respected for his competence and lack of corruption, both among Palestinians and the international community, would lay a solid foundation for a peaceful Palestinian state living side by side with Israel in peace. (Among his bona fides, Fayyad has been a Distinguished Visiting Scholar in Foreign Affairs at Princeton's School of Public and International Affairs). </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Israel and the new Palestinian state could work together to prevent the return of HAMAS or other radical Islamist groups to Gaza and the new Palestinian state. Members of Israel's highly educated Palestinian citizenry (20% of Israeli university students are Palestinian Israelis) could help to build the new Palestinian state and provide an important professional and cultural bridge for Israel to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Arab states.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In summary, the two-state solution would allow the Israel-Palestinian dispute to be settled once and for all. The road to a settlement would not be an easy one. But it would remove one of the greatest ongoing threats to international political stability and security. Most important of all, a peace treaty would end the cycle of violence which has plagued the Israeli and Palestinian people for the past 85 years.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><br /></p></div></div></div>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-2369730239553944452023-09-30T21:16:00.001-04:002023-09-30T21:17:27.426-04:00Reflections on Edward Said's Orientalism after 25 Years<p><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxbuyVi_O084wWH9hLbDbFU16XHYmCt9ibvmeDazuPUdLT8-pyEn3taOHgiql55qrltOG9d8FXG33iYDIVCQzEtzhrC0JtPLHROt7kGvTMMBBxCEOVGwg-eGuR-HH_QigKiloDHeKdPDQOwEIxktBXie315wf34gvItSjAoC-6mKcesUV5A6z6DZI7LDOk/s275/JPEG%20cover%20of%20Orientalism.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="184" data-original-width="275" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxbuyVi_O084wWH9hLbDbFU16XHYmCt9ibvmeDazuPUdLT8-pyEn3taOHgiql55qrltOG9d8FXG33iYDIVCQzEtzhrC0JtPLHROt7kGvTMMBBxCEOVGwg-eGuR-HH_QigKiloDHeKdPDQOwEIxktBXie315wf34gvItSjAoC-6mKcesUV5A6z6DZI7LDOk/w400-h268/JPEG%20cover%20of%20Orientalism.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The cover of Edward Said's <i>Orientalism</i> (1978)</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: medium;"><br />It has been 25 years since Edward Said published his groundbreaking study, <i>Orientalism</i>. Twenty years ago this month, the world lost Edward Said to leukemia. Said, one of the 20th century's most prominent public intellectuals, combined political activism with writing. His writings shook up Middle Eastern studies in the West, brought the Palestinian cause to the world's attention and had a major impact on the development of the field of post-colonial studies. </span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">With the failures of the Arab Spring, the spread of violence, instability and failed states throughout the MENA region and the signing of the Abraham Accords, it may be time to take stock of <i>Orientalism</i>, Said's most important academic and political contribution. The book earned him numerous accolades but much criticism as well. What was Orientalism's contribution and has that contribution been preserved over time? </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Said's juxtaposition of Occident and Orient has a long historical pedigree. For at elast 2 centuries, the study of the "Orient" has been central to university academic units in the West whose concern is the MENA region. In Said's framing, the Occident and Orient have been pitted against each other along a vertical cleavage which has overtones of Samuel Huntington's "clash of civilizations." This cleavage funds its origins in the struggle between Europe and the Arab world after the spread of Islam beyond the MENA region to Europe in the 7th century CE. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>Orientalism</i>'s conceptual framing is based in culture and hence ideas. While this approach yields great insights into the thinking of many Orientalist thinkers, it ignores other aspects of the relationship between the West and the East. One core relationship is the powerful economic ties which developed in the beginning of the 20th century after the discovery of massive oil reserves in Iran, Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>Orientalism and Orientalism in Reverse </i>In an important but long overlooked critique of <i>Orientalism</i>, the late Syrian philosopher, Sadiq al-'Azm, argued that Said was guilty of what he called "Orientalism in reverse." In his article published in the Arab-Israeli journal, <i>Khamsin</i>, al-'Azm views Orientalism as replacing Western Orientalism with an Arab Occidentalism. He also argues that Said's use of culture prevents him from breaking conceptually and hence epistemologically with Western Orientalist modes of thought <a href="https://matzpen.org/english/1981-07-10/orientalism-and-orientalism-in-reverse-sadik-jalal-al-azm/">Orientalism and Orientalism in Reverse – Sadik Jalal al-‘Azm</a> </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Of particular concern to al-'Azm is Said's failure to theorize the political economy of relations between the West and the MENA region. Despite the negative views of Islam and Muslim majority countries generally, he points out that the sociocultural cleavage on which Said focuses hasn't prevented Western nation-states from developing alliances with Arab oil-producing states and benefitting from their energy supplies. Arab oil-producers and other Arab regimes, such as Egypt, have historically been major purchasers of American, British and French weaponry.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Here al-'Azm changes the conceptual focus to social class. Instead of a vertical sociocultural cleavages between Occident and Orient, al-'Azm substitutes a horizontal cleavage based in mutual financial and security interests between many Arab states and Western powers, especially the United States. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">While true that many Westerners view the "Orient" as an exotic and irrational region, and that many, e.g., many Republicans in the United States, view Islam as an "ideology," not a religion, the main drivers of realtions between the East and West are those based in powerful political and financial elites, i.e., what al-'Azm considers the ruling classes. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Implicit in al-'Azm's critique of <i>Orientalism</i> is a critique of post-colonial discourse. Rarely does this discourse engage the concept of social class. While al-'Azm never denies the importance of culture, religion and ethnicity, Orientalism as defined by al-'Azm becomes a hegemonic trope used in the modern period to divert attention away from the cross-regional collaboration which serve the ruling classes of the West band the MENA region but not subaltern groups's interests in the two different areas of the world.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>The Abraham Accords </i>al-'-Azm's analysis was prescient in predicting the establishment of clser ties between ruking elites in the MENA region. Alredy in the 1970s, after the October 1973 War, Egypt and the United States, together with Saudi Arabia and Jordan, began informal consultations with Israel on regional security, especially threats posed by Iran and, later, terrorist groups. Once the Palestine National Council was formed in 19xx, Palestinian intelligence joined this security group as well.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The September 2020 "Abraham Accords," which were signed between the United Arab Emirates, Bahrayn and Israel during the Trump administration, represented a codification of the informal consultation and coordination among Israel and the Arab world. The accords broke another barrier in Arab-Israeli relations because it sharply divided the UAE and Bahrayn, and later Morocco and Sudan, which joined in December 2020 and January 2021 respectively through formal recognition of Israel.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Syria, Algeria, Lebanon, Qatar, Iraq, Libya and Yemen refused to join the accords. One of the key criticisms of these Arab states (in Libya's case, 2 ruling groups competing for control of the country) because they failed to address the issue of Palestinian self-determination. Nevertheless, what the Abraham Accords demonstrated was that political-security and financial interests trump Arab ethnic solidarity.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>Israel turn to the far-right and the Occupied West Bank </i>The extent to which Said's model suffers from conceptual shortcomings is seen in the recent efforts of the Biden administration to create a tri-partite defense pact between Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Despite the aggressive effort by the far-right religious nationalist government of Benjamin Netanyahu to seize and occupy as much as possible of the Palestinian National Authority (West Bank), the Biden administration and Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) have failed to prevent the progressive ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population. MBS has sent a Saudi diplomatic representative to the PNA, but nothing has come of it that can be viewed as postive for the Palestinians</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">For Biden, Israel's far-right government's policies are highly distasteful. Creating an Iranian defense alliance, however, is much higher on his foreign policy priorities list than reigning in Netanyahu's effort to transform Israel into an autocracy and end Palestinian hopes for an independent state. The proposed alliance will shut down the GOP howl when and if Biden can entice the Tehran regime to enter a new JCPOA and become serious about reigning in its nucelar weapons ambitions.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">MBS wants to develop Saudi Arabia as an economic powerhouse whose economy is not dependent on oil production and revenues. Israel can play a central part in his Vision 2030. Its high tech sector can help Saudi Arabia develop a more diversified economy and, as the Israeli firm NSO has demonstrates in multiple nations around the world, help the Saudi regime use its Pegasus spyware to more efficiently police its citizens.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>Orientalism and the Palestinian future </i>Clearly, the Arab-Israeli dispute and the question of Palestine were key subtexts to Edward Said's <i>Orientalism</i>. His subsequent study, <i>Covering Islam </i>(1981), was, with its <i>double-entendre</i>, an attack on the rage at the time resulting from the so-called 1978-79 Islamic revolution in Iran, that Islam was a religion of extremism, violence and irrationality<i>. </i>The book's title also hit the bias of many Western journalists in covering Islam for their respective news outlets. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">No one would argue that culture no longer plays a key role in relations between the West and the MENA region. Radical Islamists like Sayyid Qutb, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and many others of their ideological ilk claim that, ipso facto, Western culture in its current form constitutes an attack on Islam. Indeed, the recent banning of the film Barbie in most MENA region countries - with Saudi Arabis being a notable exception - was based on the corrosive effect of Western culture on Muslim youth. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Orientalism has allowed many Westerners to question how they think about the Arab world, Islam and the larger MENA region. Its impact on younger scholars in the West has been profound. In Gramscian terms, it has helped the Palestinians develop a more effective "war of position" in winning over the support of the inter national community.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Still, at the end of the day, difficult political struggle is required if the Palestinians are to achieve their goals of national self-determination, namely a state of their own, and socila justice. Changing the way the West thinks about Arab culture, the Palestinian people and Islam is core to Edward Said's legacy. Now the powerful political economic ties which bind the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf present a much higher mountain for the Palstinians to climb </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><br /></i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-51822199148059537972023-08-30T22:04:00.010-04:002023-09-07T21:59:43.563-04:00East Meets West: The Rise of Far-Right Religious Nationalism in Israel and the United States<p><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmYqPBVB5E2c7EepIP_uRHQViME3SYp_ATArn-u2AEBAbcFEJa5VNXRDxlOjPxkmrAnECmUXStVn5CWRsR62QRr1d2BtPqO_4HjKNwtWCCv-_cTuJ9iTruaZaB5AwsDhG088gyrBpRH5zQsbYXpuJ4_Ael_BsrdbCq1DZnxZT0x1V05EeDj4IdcyZvmgTA/s300/JPEG%20Israel%20Coup%20Criminal%20Anadolu%20Ajansi.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmYqPBVB5E2c7EepIP_uRHQViME3SYp_ATArn-u2AEBAbcFEJa5VNXRDxlOjPxkmrAnECmUXStVn5CWRsR62QRr1d2BtPqO_4HjKNwtWCCv-_cTuJ9iTruaZaB5AwsDhG088gyrBpRH5zQsbYXpuJ4_Ael_BsrdbCq1DZnxZT0x1V05EeDj4IdcyZvmgTA/w400-h224/JPEG%20Israel%20Coup%20Criminal%20Anadolu%20Ajansi.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Demonstrations against crippling Israel's Supreme Court</td></tr></tbody></table><span><br /><span style="font-size: large;">In 1975, Dr. Ralph Coury wrote an article entitled, "Why Can't They Be Like Us?" Published in the first issue of the <i>Review of Middle Eastern Studies,</i> edited by Talal Asad and Roger Owen, Coury offered a critique of the Orientalist view that, for the peoples of the MENA region to "modernize," they needed to accept the culture and values of the West. Thankfully, this perspective, propounded by classic Orientalist texts and the modernization theory of the late 1950s and 1960s, has been thoroughly debunked.</span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq1DA8UG_Pw6G3az_tFe2RMH1bKo3iZA0kOXeYGeZ_geWN3GyWyi1k5pVUfjvPv6VoQvv60WWYsjw03tmvaVSxkmIIjfmutOF0x8Dd5Pfvpo3hpbnrUqpmKc3_JXQcBZoux7lvJllcc1Sx6UMh33ikwbntxWeiF5ypgjSmv5qZh8m-nWZEt0SFbfEryZs9/s300/JPEG%20Name%20and%20shame%20Christian%20nationalism.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq1DA8UG_Pw6G3az_tFe2RMH1bKo3iZA0kOXeYGeZ_geWN3GyWyi1k5pVUfjvPv6VoQvv60WWYsjw03tmvaVSxkmIIjfmutOF0x8Dd5Pfvpo3hpbnrUqpmKc3_JXQcBZoux7lvJllcc1Sx6UMh33ikwbntxWeiF5ypgjSmv5qZh8m-nWZEt0SFbfEryZs9/w400-h224/JPEG%20Name%20and%20shame%20Christian%20nationalism.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: large;">Nevertheless, it may be important to revisit this approach to understanding the MENA region by turning Orientalist and modernization theory on their heads. In 2023, the decline of civic nationalism in the West and MENA region and the concomitant rise of politicized religion in the two regions has been pronounced. An argument can be made that each of the 3 Abrahamic religions have developed an intolerant and violent form of xenophobic religious nationalism which completely contradicts the messages of their prophets. </span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">What then is happening to traditional forms of religion which encourage the ideas of brotherhood/sisterhood, tolerance, respect for cultural, religious and ethnic diversity, and an emphasis on social justice? Perhaps we can find some answers by comparing </span><span style="font-size: large;">recent</span><span style="font-size: large;"> political</span><span style="font-size: large;"> developments in Israel and the United States. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/27/opinion/israel-netanyahu-judiciary-protests.html?searchResultPosition=1">Israel’s Crisis Has a Distinctly American Flavor</a></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Let's begin by recognizing that neither Israel nor the United States is comprised of a majority of citizens who accept religious nationalism. The problem is that sizable numbers of Israelis and Americans do reject civic nationalism (or what they call secular nationalism). </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">All too often viewed through the eye of religion, this form of nationalism constitutes a political commitment more than a religious one. In fact, it really has little to do with religious belief. Rather, politicized religion is a cover for reconstituting society along far right-wing lines.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">What are the religious nationalists' goals in their respective societies? First and foremost, they seek to eliminate the constitutional rules of the game which constrain their ability to impose a new system of governance. This means undermining or eliminating those institutions which stand in the way of their goals. Hence, Netanyahu's far-right government's attack on Israel's Supreme Court and the MAGA effort to subvert the US Constitution through the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 to deny Joe Biden from being sworn in as presidento</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Second, it's critical for far right religious nationalists to develop their hegemonic project by claiming that what they doing is to implement the Word of God. Using interpretations based on fear and anxiety, they seek to take control of the public sphere. Secular schools need to be closed and replaced by religious academies. Socializing a new generation of youth according to their view is critical. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Third, the far right seeks to suppress what they consider to be non-traditional understandings of the family and sexual identity. The idea of same sex marriage is rejected as is rights afforded to the LGBTQ+ community. Laws legitimizing same sex marriage and offering protections to non-heterosexuals are thus targeted for elimination.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Fourth, both forms of religious nationalism situate women as second class citizens. There are no female rabbis in the far right religious nationalist movement in Israel nor female pastors in far right evangelical churches in the United States. Even in the more traditional, but not evangelical, Southern Baptist Convention, women were recently forbidden to hold positions of authority in the church, much less remain, as some have, as pastors.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Finally, liberal democratic governance is rejected. In its place, authoritarianism becomes the new norm. Far right religious nationalists won't admit that this is true. Indeed, they argue the opposite. "We the People," who are divinely chosen, are the majority and thus democracy is being practiced on a daily basis as we implement God's Will. Appeals are thus made to a majoritarian form of rule which the privileged majority imposes. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">This political ideology constitutes a form of religiously based populism. It legitimizes what it claims to be a form of democratic governance by arguing that it is following God's laws. As such, religious nationalism can;t be challenged because its mission stems from a higher power.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Religious nationalism has been able to make greater inroads in Israel because it is favored by demographic change. The ultra-orthodox community which provides the special base for the religious nationalism has been growing much faster than Israel's secular center right and center left. Educated in religious schools, ultra-orthodox youth are taught that God has given the Land of Israel to the Jews, including the West Bank of the River Jordan where Palestinians seek to establish an independent state.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">While demographics favor the far right religious nationalists in Israel, the opposite is true in the United States. The Caucasian population is declining as is church attendance. Many youth, both in religiously observant and secular families, refuse to accept the dictates and sociocultural constraints of religious nationalism. Thus, the future of the movement is much mores in doubt in the United States than in Israel.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">The problem with each of these movements is their ethereal approach to social, economic and political reality. Far right religious nationalist may want to build a "Torah state" in Israel. However, such a state doesn't address the sharp rise in income inequality in Israel. Neither does it address the discontent of secular Israeli society which rejects the idea of a pseudo-religious polity.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Further, the policies of the current far right government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have both infuriated and demoralized many secular Israelis. Already we see some making plans to leave the country. There already is a huge Israeli Diaspora, much of which doesn't want to live under the type of society being constructed by the far right religious nationalists. <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/28-of-israelis-considering-leaving-the-country-amid-judicial-upheaval-poll/#:~:text=A%20survey%20carried%20out%20Tuesday,%2C%20and%208%25%20were%20unsure.">28% of Israelis considering leaving the country amid judicial upheaval — poll</a></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Equally ominous, Israel's economy has been adversely affected by the policies of far-right religious nationalists. Considerable portions of Israel's technology sector, a major engine of growth, no longer view Israel as having a favorable investment climate, especially if the Supreme Court loses much of its authority under Netayahu's plan to strip it of many of functions. Investment funds by Israeli entrepreneur's are being moved to other countries. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/25/business/moodys-israel-credit-warning/index.html">Moody’s warns Israel faces ‘significant risk’ of political and social tensions that will harm its economy, security</a></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">What are the domestic challenges facing far-right religious nationalism? A core problem is that the cultural wars of right-wing religious nationalism exclude any focus on the economy. As the current economic crisis in China demonstrates, authoritarianism and a vibrant market economy don't mix. Under the type of religious nationalist state advocated by Netanyahu and his far-right ministers, foreign direct investment (FDI) will decline and young, innovative tech entrepreneurs will be less willing to work in Israel.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">In the United States, the need to develop a skilled work force which possesses the technical abilities required of the 21st century isn't a goal of the Christian nationalist right. Christian nationalists focus on limiting the role of the federal government and circumscribing its ability to legislate. We see this process currently playing itself out in the 2023 House of Representatives which has failed to pass any legislation addressing important issues, such as climate change, infrastructure development, health care reform or financially securing entitlements.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">The far-right Christian nationalists also pose a threat to the security of Israel and the United States. Apart from appropriating territory from Palestinians living on the West Bank, religious nationalists in Israel show relatively little interest in the rest of the MENA region. Because many ultra-orthodox are exempt from serving in Israel Defense Force, many lack n understanding of serving in the military and respect for what s considered an important part of an Israeli's civic duty.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">In the United States, religious nationalists likewise reflect an insular and isolationist world view. Many public opinion polls indicate that religious nationalists oppose military aid to Ukraine and seem to have little concern about Vladimir Putin's illegal invasion and attempt to eliminate it as a sovereign nation-state. In this context, international security and financial alliances fall by the wayside.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Finally, we may look to parallels between Iran and Israel. In Iran, women have been protesting the forced wearing of the hijab (head scarf) by the so-called Islamic regime in Tehran. In Israel, even religious women have expressed criticisms of Netanyahu's attack on Israel's Supreme Court. Many have argues that the rights they have as religious Jews, were curtailed before the Supreme Court intervened to declare the laws null and void. <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/02/israel-judicial-women-equality-netanyahu/#cookie_message_anchor">Women Will Be the Biggest Victims of Israel’s Judicial Reforms</a></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Globalization is viewed as posing a threat to traditional norms and customs in many countries. It has been reinforced by neo-liberal state policies which have focused on individual achievement and profits to the detriment of promoting a national civic consciousness. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Those who feel left out by processes of globalization have chosen to rebel. Far-right religious nationalists feel they have been excluded from what they consider an aloof and secular political culture. In some, the response has been the rise of an insular and intolerant form of politics, frequently cloaked in a politicized form of religion.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">In summary, the question Ralph Khoury raised decades ago has now become a very different one. Politcal developments in the West parallel, rather than differ from, political developments in the MENA region. Sadiq al-'Azm's article in the journal <i>Khamsin</i>, "Orientalism and Orientalism in Reverse," also from the 1970s, springs true - there is much more in common between the "East" and "West" than many observers are willing to recognize. Authoritarianism comes in many forms - xenophobic religious nationalism is just one of them.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Indeed, it is important to recognize that the far-right Christian nationalist movement in the United States constitutes a strong supporter of Israel. However, there is a major contradiction inherent in this support. Based on the belief that the Return of the Messiah - Jesus Christ - will occur in the Holy Land, only true Christians will survive the Second Coming of Christ. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">In both Israel and the United States, the civic and secular center-right and center-left will need to engage in outreach to those who feel left behind by the rapid changes wrought by globalization. Those both in and out of power need to bring clerics and lay people together who reject far right religious nationalism to develop a new form of social democracy in which cultural diversity isn't swept under the carpet but occupies a central focus of national political discourse. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Unless trust can be reestablished in liberal democracy, especially its social democratic variant, where citizens feel a meaningful connection to the polity and those elected to positions of authority, religious nationalism will continue to resonate with significant portions of the populace in Israel, the United States and elsewhere. <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/709965/losing-our-religion-by-russell-moore/?ref=PRH26FA38B16B5B&aid=12402&linkid=PRH26FA38B16B5B">Losing Our Religion: An Altar Call for Evangelical America</a></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-20114214226540419532023-07-31T21:51:00.031-04:002023-08-10T16:33:24.987-04:00Will Authoritarianism and the Climate Emergency Destroy the Middle East?<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnQ9WCImk10g1Hcc7_0UDNKteCwwH_RZ1iu5CMftZ8oc20Ys-HK6P2NL7MVy_IEbsMWhNe4089C1gznmCFaPX7AtQvdvT7DvVlXQmmp517D7Xgs9s_DKyc46F5Koxj6F11J7p4rLEnOBiaeRkYeXEhYhRuBx1mE3ITqmv4jPstTScJc66bxtwI0w5I22EL/s302/JPEG%20drought%20in%20the%20MENA%20region.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="130" data-original-width="302" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnQ9WCImk10g1Hcc7_0UDNKteCwwH_RZ1iu5CMftZ8oc20Ys-HK6P2NL7MVy_IEbsMWhNe4089C1gznmCFaPX7AtQvdvT7DvVlXQmmp517D7Xgs9s_DKyc46F5Koxj6F11J7p4rLEnOBiaeRkYeXEhYhRuBx1mE3ITqmv4jPstTScJc66bxtwI0w5I22EL/w426-h182/JPEG%20drought%20in%20the%20MENA%20region.jpeg" width="426" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A section of the Euphrates River </td></tr></tbody></table>The front page headline of the <i>New York Times</i> was ominous: "A Climate Warning from the Cradle of Civilization." The lengthy article on Iraq's extreme heat and water shortages shows that the Fertile Crescent is the "poster child" for the damage that the global Climate Emergency is inflicting on the Middle East. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/29/world/middleeast/iraq-water-crisis-desertification.html?searchResultPosition=1">A Climate Warning from the Cradle of Civilization</a><p></p><p>Extreme heat, torrential rains and droughts which have plagued the world this summer have been conclusively linked to the continued burning of fossil fuels. All the Earth's regions are negatively affected by the intensifying Climate Emergency. But no other region is more susceptible to the impact of climate change than the Middle East. It is experiencing rising global temperatures at rates much higher than other areas of the planet. Iraq's temperature rise, for example, is 4-7 times the rate of other regions.</p><p>What is being done to protect the MENA region from the Climate Emergency? The answer is basically nothing. Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states possess extremely large sovereign wealth funds. The largest producers of fossil fuels, especially oil and natural gas, they boast about the progress theyr have amde with their Green Energy initiatives domestically, such as the UAE's carbon neutral city, al-Masdar, and Saudi Arabia's huge solar energy farms.</p><p>However, as OPEC members - and in Saudi Arabia's case an OPEC+ partner with Russia - Arab oil-producing states produce the largest percentage of the world's fossil fuels. Despite their promises to transition to Green Energy in the future, by the time they do the damage to the Earth's environment will be irreversible.</p><p><i>Authoritarianism and the Climate Emergency </i>Many studies have analyzed the threats from climate change confronting the Middle East. They also offer many proposals to confront the Climate Emergency. However, almost none focus on the manner in which authoritarian rule continues to prevent any serious efforts to confront global warming (or what UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres now calls "global boiling"). The key point is that all the suggested initiatives in the world can be proposed. If the state refuses to act on them, they remain simply words on paper.</p><p>The authoritarian state in the MENA region constitutes a particular variant - what we can call the "kleptocratic state." To paraphrase Sarah Chase, the authoritarian who rule them are the "thieves of state." Authoritarian rulers and the elites who support them lack any legitimizing ideology, civic consciousness, and do little or noting to improve the lives of the populace at large. Indeed, the only element that unites them is their crony corruption and the use of force to repress any dissent directed at their rule. It is no wonder that one of the largest expenditure of the kleptocratic state is on its security services.</p><p><i>The Problem of Water</i> <i>Security </i>Many countries in the Middle East are running out of water. Yemen is the most prominent but Iran and Iraq are also confronting serious water insecurity. Not all of the problems are directly caused by global warming. In Yemen, Qat, a mild addictive plant which many Yemeni men chew, has taken over a third of all agricultural land and consumed large amounts of water. </p><p style="text-align: left;">In Iraq and Iran, the state has failed to develop a national water policy which would include promoting water conservation in the agrarian sector. Indeed farmers still use irrigation methods which dare back to ancient Mesopotamia which waste enormous amounts of water. In neither country has the Ministry of Agriculture developed policies which would conserve water much less sent agronomists to the agrarian sector to help farmers conserve water.</p><p>When asked by a <i>New York Times</i> reporter what the Iraqi government was doing to address Iraq's severe wager crisis, the Ministry of Water's director in the city of al-Nasiriya in the south responded by saying Iraq has no money. "Maybe next year," he said. This disingenuous reply belies the fact that Iraq is the fourth largest oil producer in the world . It recently signed a $27 billion contract with France TotalEnergy. </p><p>Dies Iraq truly lack funds to confront the Climate Emergency? The long list of foreign oil companies operating in Iraq suggests otherwise: BP, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China National Offshore Oil, China National Petroleum Company (CNPC), Dragon Oil, Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), Eni, ExxonMobil, Gazprom, Inpex, Itochu, <span style="color: #20124d;">Japan Petroleum Exploration Company (Japex), Kogas (Korean Gas Corporation), Lukoil, Pakistan Petroleum Corporation, Pretamina, PetroChina, Petronas, Rosnoft, Sinopec (China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation), Sonogol, TotalEnergy, Turkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortagligi (TPAO), and United Energy Group (UEG).</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #20124d;">The problem is that the Federal Government in Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government in Erbil engage in such massive corruption that much of Iraq's education, health, electricity infrastructure and other social services continue to deteriorate. With one of fastest going populations in the MENA region and experiencing some of the most severe consequences of the Climate Emergency, one would think that the state would be actively involved in addressing the challenges facing Iraq. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #20124d;">Thus far, that has not been the case. Much is published in official circles about new oil drilling contracts but almost nothing about Iraq's existential threat from climate change. Lack of water and desertification have led Iraq to lose 40% of its agricultural land, an area about the size of the state of Florida. Dust storms have intensified health problems and disrupted daily life including flights in and out of Iraq. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;">Iran running out of water as well. Water insecurity will plague KSA and Gulf states by mid-century. Two Iranian provinces will run out of water this coming September displacing 2 million people. Iraq has been experiencing a severe drought since 2007 and suffers from dams in Turkey and Iran which have reduced water in both the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/21/world/middleeast/iran-drought-water-climate.html">In Iran, Some Are Chasing the Last Drops of Water</a></p><p><span style="font-family: times;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #202124;">Egypt is highly vulnerable to a number of climate induced threats. These threats include heatwaves, sea level rise, increased salinization of agricultural land near the Mediterranean Sea and desertification. If not confronted, the Climate Emergency will have a devastating impacts on the country's economy, food security as well as people's health and well being.</span></span> As the Mediterranean's water levels rise, the two branches of the Nile which empty into the sea have become increasing saline, rendering 17% of Egyptian farmland no longer suitable for agriculture.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: times;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgD2tYHsgjcFqgRSmM3UobsG9zd1CGTzv8hZvpe1nCLkaib3KJEljRGn27Pdb_wOuLsTJfe2554FlUGj3qHI3NJgejuj_ND3ket5oEBvZ1_eHCJfGG7BLmk-Dt0h5OLxV72NRxLcZEQuWgCUFV4WoY_uitC17MLSKUU3Q2Yl0oQa4oBwAxxL-hOsz463wht/s1260/JPEG%20Egypt's%20ne%20capital%20that%20many%20Egyptians%20may%20not%20visit%20WSJ.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="1260" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgD2tYHsgjcFqgRSmM3UobsG9zd1CGTzv8hZvpe1nCLkaib3KJEljRGn27Pdb_wOuLsTJfe2554FlUGj3qHI3NJgejuj_ND3ket5oEBvZ1_eHCJfGG7BLmk-Dt0h5OLxV72NRxLcZEQuWgCUFV4WoY_uitC17MLSKUU3Q2Yl0oQa4oBwAxxL-hOsz463wht/w400-h266/JPEG%20Egypt's%20ne%20capital%20that%20many%20Egyptians%20may%20not%20visit%20WSJ.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Egypt's new capital east of Cairo</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: times;"><br />Despite hosting the United Nations COP27 Summit in Sharm al-Shaykh, there is little evidence that the 'Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi regime has developed any initiatives to combat the Climate Emergency. </span><span style="font-family: times;">The Sisi regime </span>claims it lacks funds to confront the Climate Emergency. Nevertheless it is building a lavish and very costly new capital to the east of Cairo which has failed to attract many new inhabitants. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/egypt-is-spending-billions-on-a-new-capital-that-egyptians-may-not-visit-11671838772">Egypt Is Spending Billions on a New Capital That Egyptians May Not Visit</a><p></p><p>The capital seems to have been developed to attract and benefit the wealthy,. However, few well-t0-do Egyptians purchased the new high end apartments in the would-be capital. The new capital will leave the poor and lower middle classes to struggle with Cairo's traffic congestion, poor municipal services and highly polluted air. Meanwhile, the al-Sisi regime has failed to curtail its exploding population which requires housing that eats into precious agricultural land. <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/09/egypt-economy-debt-imf-sisi-mega-projects/">How Sisi Ruined Egypt</a><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></p><p>The proposals for Egypt to confront the Climate Emergency are bizarre. A Brookings Institution report argues that Egypt should increases its natural gas exports to Europe and somehow, through this process, become a key player in the production of Green Hydrogen. The problem with this approach is that it says nothing about what the state should be doing to help its citizens now, not in the future, to stave off the ravages of the Climate Emergency.<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Chapter-3.-Climate-action-in-Egypt-Challenges-and-opportunities-1.pdf" style="font-family: times;">Action in Egypt—Challenges and Opportunities</a><span style="font-family: times;">.</span></p><p>Meanwhile, the Egyptian military skims off huge amounts of revenue as part of its corrupt business practices. It produces consumer goods, food items, collects highway tolls and benefited from unreported fees derived from foreign firms which have invested in Egypt. It is telling that it is illegal to report on or publish the military's annual budget. </p><p>While the Brookings Report cited above emphasizes the need of the private sector to play an important role in combatting the Climate Emergency. However, it is difficult for entrepreneurs to develop new ventures if they don't have <i>wasta</i>, namely close ties to the governing elite. This political bias thwarts the efforts of many creative social entrepreneurs from trying to create new firms. </p><p>One exception that proves the rule is <i>Sharikat Karam li-l- Ta'qa al-Shamsiya </i>(Karm Solar Power Company). Founded by youth, the firm was denied access to Egypt's electric grid when ot started in 2011. However, Karm Solar;s founders persisted and is now an established energy company in Egypt. It was able to provide many Egyptian farmers with solar panels which has had 2 very positive results. First, farmers now have enhanced pumping capacity to access water deeper in the ground. Second, they no longer need to use polluting diesel fuel which is expensive and often doesn't arrive on schedule. <a href="https://www.karmsolar.com/">Karm Solar Energy Company</a></p><p>What the Egyptian case points to is the failure of the state throughout the MENA region to mobilize youth to combat the Climate Emergency. In the Youth Social Entrepreneurship and Sustainable Development Program which I have directed, I have met youth social entrepreneurs from Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Pakistan, the UAE, Egypt and a number of other MENA region countries. Many have excellent ideas about fighting the devastating effects of climate change but have been stymied because they receive no support from the state. <a href="http://new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2020/07/youth-building-new-iraq-2020-iraq.html">Youth Building the New Iraq: The 2020 Iraq Public Leadership Program</a></p><p>If we realize that youth constitutes a large demographic in the MENA region, we quickly see a huge human capital resource going to waste. In Iraq, where youth comprise 70% of the population under the age of 30, there are thousands of well-trained engineers and other professionals who all too often are unable to find employment after graduate from university. </p><p>Taking jobs in the construction industry or driving taxis after receiving a university degree not only underscores the lack of the state's interest in its youth demographic, but a failure to use youth to address pressing problems like desertification and training farmers how to more efficiently use water for their crops. The Ministry of Agriculture could help ameliorate the irrigation crisis facing farmers by training local youth to help famers in their region. </p><p><i>The Impact of Excessive Heat </i>Excessive heat is already reducing productivity in advanced industrialized states. Farming, construction, delivery services, infrastructure repairs and many other aspects of daily economic life are facing problems as workers are unable to spend time outdoors at certain times of day. This means that agriculture in particular will see a significant drop in output saddling countries of the region with even greater food insecurity.<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/31/climate/heat-labor-productivity-climate.html?searchResultPosition=2">Heat Is Costing the U.S. Economy Billions in Lost Productivity</a></p><p>In Iraq and other MENA region, the pressure of excessive heat on the health care infrastructure has increased dramatically. Cases of heat strokes and, due to dirty polluted water, Typhoid, Hepatitis A and Cholera are on the rise. Ambulances lack the necessary air conditioning when taking patients to emergency rooms. Hospitals won't be able to keep up with the demand for health services </p><p>Many MENA region countries are dependent on tourism. Egypt and Tunisia are two of the poorer countries that rely heavily on tourist revenues. Visiting the ancient monuments and tombs of the Pharaohs in Upper Egypt will be much inviting given extreme temperatures. </p><p>With global ocean temperatures rising (recently reaching a 100 degrees in the Atlantic Ocean along the Florida coast), swimming in the Mediterranean Sea will not be as attractive as in the past. Turkey and Greece, including the islands of Rhodes and Corfu, will most likely also see fewer tourists given the wildfires which have battered the forests of both countries.</p><p>Other states seek to attract tourism as well. Saudi Arabia has invested an enormous amount of funds into developing its tourist sector as apart of Muhammad Bin Salman's Vision 2030. Tourism is a key part of the Crown Price's goal to diversify the economy as make it less dependent on oil. Tourism in the Saudi Arabia primarily targets wealthy tourists by offering luxury hotels and accommodation when they visit the kingdom <a href="https://english.alarabiya.net/News/saudi-arabia/2023/05/17/Saudi-Arabia-is-world-s-second-fastest-growing-tourism-destination-WTO">Saudi Arabia is world’s second fastest growing tourism destination: WTO</a></p><p>However, excessive heat will make it impossible for humans to go outdoors during much of the day. Will Saudi Arabia under these circumstances still attract the large number of tourists required to make this sector profitable and provide the return on investment the Bin Salman regime expects?</p><p><i>Climate refugees </i>As sub-Saharan countries struggle with drought, drought and torrential rains from cyclones and other storms, more and more people will migrate north seeking to enter the European Union. This will only create more problems in countries like Libya and Tunisia which are already increasingly unstable - Libya with its civil war and Tunisia with opposition to the dictatorial rule of President Kais Sa'id. </p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwlGrzsxaJj_sFiPT2fNqFM1j-i0lpao_JxWi_tYu4FDJT6leUFQ8M0H3ZSqDSiewHlWcGNkcQF2afgRV0RFKa8WkVUfbKJPd-aWp76iH4LUtmumENi-OlUqstW1PWNbBqvFGKy4-4zKjZpW9rVP4qHohZEyQkzKh-DI43os8Opnm6BiBbSyVCDsZLmU-f/s275/JPEG%20Refugees%20expelled%20from%20Tunisia%20Aug%202023.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwlGrzsxaJj_sFiPT2fNqFM1j-i0lpao_JxWi_tYu4FDJT6leUFQ8M0H3ZSqDSiewHlWcGNkcQF2afgRV0RFKa8WkVUfbKJPd-aWp76iH4LUtmumENi-OlUqstW1PWNbBqvFGKy4-4zKjZpW9rVP4qHohZEyQkzKh-DI43os8Opnm6BiBbSyVCDsZLmU-f/w400-h266/JPEG%20Refugees%20expelled%20from%20Tunisia%20Aug%202023.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Sub-Saharan migrants expelled from Tunisia</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Recently, Sa'id encouraged Tunisians to attack sub-Saharan migrants, many of whom have lived in Tunisia for years. The president tried to blame Tunisia's increasingly serious economic problems on the migrants which led to many being physically assaulted and forced to leave the country. <p></p><p>While not facing the same levels of political instability as Libya and Tunisia, Morocco has also seen ever larger numbers of migrants entering the country as they try to enter Spain across its northern border. Security forces have responded with violence as Sudanese and other African migrants have tried to enter Spain's north African enclave of Mellila. </p><p>Meanwhile there is rising hostility to the over 4 million Syrian refugees in Turkey. The Syrian civil war was one of the first indicators of what the MENA region's future might look like. As the Euphrates River has been drying up in the forst decade of this century, both due to an extended drought extending back to 2007, and Turkey damning the river's waters within its own boundaries, 175 villages had to be evacuated. The flow of displaced persons and their demands for state assistance to help them resettle was one of the key factors that led to the Syrian civil war and Syria's status today as a failed state.</p><p><i>The Political Context </i>The MENA region not only has the dubious honor of being ruled almost exclusively by authoritarian regimes, but regimes which lack any legitimating ideology and are devoid of any civic commitment to the people they rule. One of the key developments which will need to occur soon is that youth - and members of the older generation who support them - must find ways to pressure the state to move beyond corruption and confront the existential crisis facing he countries of the region. </p><p>MENA region states have within their power the ability to affect the Climate Emergency in the short term. Following the example of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt during the Great Depression of the 1930s who founded the Civilian Conservation Corps to restock forests with tress and develop local infrastructure, similar youth organizations coud be developed in the MENA region. </p><p>Such organizations could plant trees and foliage in urban areas to mitigate the impact of dust storms on the cities' residents. As we know in Cairo and many other MENA region cities, roofs of large buildings are where many people live and frequently use the area to raise chickens and other livestock. Building owners could be paid a stipend if they allow these areas to be populated by bushes and other foliage and have building employees or those living on the roofs attend to them. </p><p>Morocco is one of the few MENA region countries which has confronted the Climate Emergency. Because it is poor and lack hydrocarbon resources, it has developed some of the largest solar farms in the region. These solar farms are particularly efficient because the sun is used to heat large tubes containing salt water during the day which allows energy to continue to be produced for 3 hours after the sun sets.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhk76pZwe0Xd0nuqS-c5_8ccdR55x8aKNABuO6aVjQ4CAcMsQBCuVOABOzSZho3-LQvEd7V6NwP1gvqQU8xj8CcFqOvYbv_X6kznn1hig4s3cC8QMCYJmsf4jc93JX4q0X7jQG1e-rd6qHMzBa-Gd_olOOxG9keTnw-BgrYuLISLoMjosvqN8wNTOWPu3R/s284/JPEG%20Noor%20Ouarzazate%20Solar%20plant.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="177" data-original-width="284" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhk76pZwe0Xd0nuqS-c5_8ccdR55x8aKNABuO6aVjQ4CAcMsQBCuVOABOzSZho3-LQvEd7V6NwP1gvqQU8xj8CcFqOvYbv_X6kznn1hig4s3cC8QMCYJmsf4jc93JX4q0X7jQG1e-rd6qHMzBa-Gd_olOOxG9keTnw-BgrYuLISLoMjosvqN8wNTOWPu3R/w400-h249/JPEG%20Noor%20Ouarzazate%20Solar%20plant.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Noor Ouarzazate Solar Plant - largest in the world</td></tr></tbody></table><br />While Morocco's efforts in developing Green Energy are commendable, little effort has been made to subsidize placing solar panels on the homes and apartment buildings of residents of the MENA region. Interestingly, solar panels began to be placed on buildings in central Baghdad in the early 1980s but stopped after the Iran-Iraq War intensified later in the decade. The cost of installing solar panels throughout the region would not be prohibitive and could be funded by the World Bank. Wind energy also can thrive in many areas of the MENA region given the windy climate.<p></p><p>Israel is one of the MENA region countries that developed policies to deal with an arid climate decades ago. It os famous for example for saving water through the use of drip agriculture. More recently, it has developed heat resistant grapes for its wine industry and begun to grow crops in shaded areas.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjczMMayJDW4GghACo6yokq_Q_d5bCeLqjBXIf5_9ciTXVxpM3UoTj8xQOQXtMCT0hWazzWs4Ik4Gb399XslsuTbFu2onZ61LtgZIUwaTc4E8yRSS0mZJRjm-WmNJuTe5ta33ESboGUjFsP3KyT2EcFx836rLMWuCViv9CXleN_Jh6ABuK6QxZWw7UoQPG8/s600/JPEG%20Israel%20agriculture%20wovem%20protection%20covers.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjczMMayJDW4GghACo6yokq_Q_d5bCeLqjBXIf5_9ciTXVxpM3UoTj8xQOQXtMCT0hWazzWs4Ik4Gb399XslsuTbFu2onZ61LtgZIUwaTc4E8yRSS0mZJRjm-WmNJuTe5ta33ESboGUjFsP3KyT2EcFx836rLMWuCViv9CXleN_Jh6ABuK6QxZWw7UoQPG8/w400-h300/JPEG%20Israel%20agriculture%20wovem%20protection%20covers.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Israel uses woven protection covers to shied crops from heat</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Unfortunately, the current far-right and extremist nationalist Netanyahu government seeks to annex the West Bank of the River Jordan to preclude the possibility of an independent Palestinian state ever being developed. Even Arab states who signed the Abraham Accords during the Trump administration have withdrawn from interaction with the Netanyahu regime, as has Saudi Arabia which is considering joining the Accords. <p></p><p>Based on Israel's illegal efforts to seize more Palestinian land and populate the West Bank with Israeli settlements, the possibility of other countries, such as neighboring Jordan which is running out of water, cooperating with Israel to benefit from its climate mitigation strategies has been precluded.</p><p><i>The Role of the International Community </i>The international community must help those with civic consciousness and commitment to be successful in their efforts to develop projects designed to combat climate change. This must involve the carrot and the stick. The World Bank, Western foundations and NGOs should provide youth social entrepreneurs with the funds they need to establish companies like Karm Solar. The United States and European Union should withhold funds from countries like Egypt which engage in massive human rights abuses but still receive large sums of foreign aid. Time is not on the side of the MENA region. <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/senate-democrats-urge-biden-to-withhold-320-million-in-military-aid-to-egypt-over-rights-abuses">Senate Democrats urge Biden to withhold $320 million in military aid to Egypt over Human Rights Abuses </a></p>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-74979089591272942992023-06-30T22:13:00.006-04:002023-07-02T14:29:58.577-04:00How is the War in Ukraine Affecting the Middle East?<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3K-wfdYroyemT0pzRggvHIYzeLJE7BeKrUc2u3dE6Lu8Ub9Ux6ep955gZeCIQ0XZGSDjVw0u1T8xnOpIQjcKURoGwLbmyM0Y3PGoty-Q8CWd-HtFCtOiuY9gtBSpfhwn6Nc5hEhX67sEhfVmvE8kkxjONMB6oq3l8srTbGMmqkTI3nZ1f29Q4g6genyCc/s1280/JPEG%20Russia%20weapons%20at%20UAE%20arms%20fair%20.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3K-wfdYroyemT0pzRggvHIYzeLJE7BeKrUc2u3dE6Lu8Ub9Ux6ep955gZeCIQ0XZGSDjVw0u1T8xnOpIQjcKURoGwLbmyM0Y3PGoty-Q8CWd-HtFCtOiuY9gtBSpfhwn6Nc5hEhX67sEhfVmvE8kkxjONMB6oq3l8srTbGMmqkTI3nZ1f29Q4g6genyCc/w400-h237/JPEG%20Russia%20weapons%20at%20UAE%20arms%20fair%20.webp" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Russian arms at the Dubai Arms Fair in 2023</td></tr></tbody></table><br />What impact is the war in Ukraine having on the Middle East? How have key states in the Middle East affected the progress of the war? What do these developments tell us about the future of the MENA region and the role and influence of the United States in it?<p></p><p>One key takeaway from the Ukraine's war and its impact on the Middle East is the lack of any support by the countries of the region for United States policy towards the war. There have been no condemnations of Putin's invasion of a sovereign country and the attempt to overthrow a duly elected government. Indeed, a number of the regions' countries have shown a predisposition towards Russia in the war. </p><p>The foreign policy posture by MENA region states underscores their authoritarian nature and natural disposition to support a dictatorial regime rather than a democracy. A defeat for Putin in the war - not an unlikely scenario - might encourage citizens in MENA region countries to act more vigorously to promote democracy. Of course, the threat of democracy is what keeps repressive rulers in the Middle East up at night.</p><p>Another takeaway is the declining influence the United States has in the MENA region. Even the United States' closest ally, Israel - who some would argue is a 51st state - has refused to vigorously oppose Putin's brutal invasion or supply Ukraine with meaningful arms, e.g., fighter jets which would allow Ukrainian forces to challenge Russia's dominance of the air.</p><p>Other supposed American allies - Turkey, Saudi Arabia the UAE and Egypt - have also been very equivocal in their foreign policy positions towards the war. President Erdogan has benefitted enormously from the war. At the beginning of the conflict, Turkey sold large numbers of Bayrakdar mini drones to Ukraine. These low flying drones were critical in devastating tank columns sent across the Russian-Ukraine border to seize Kyiv.</p><p>As is well known, southern Russia and Ukraine serve as the "breadbasket" to the MENA region and much of Africa. Erdogan's role in helping to broker a deal between Putin and Ukraine to allow grain shipments to travel through the Black Sea and then through Turkey's Dardanelles Straits was critical to preventing widespread hunger in countries which regularly import Ukrainian and Russian wheat, fertilizers and other agricultural products.</p><p>Turkey has also become a place of (temporary?) exile for many Russian oligarchs. Becase a number of prominent oligarchs have died to Russia under mysterious circumstances, large numbers of oligarchs have travelled outside Russia in an attempt to protect their physical safety and their wealth. Russian yachts dot the Istanbul harbor. </p><p>Despite being a member of NATO, Erdogan has yet to directly criticize Putin for his illegitimate and brutal invasion of Ukraine. Instead, Erdogan has in effect declared his "neutrality" and offered his services as a mediator to bring the war. to an end. Of course, Putin hasn;t taken him up on his offer because that would force him to negotiate with Ukraine and derail his effort to place the country's under Russian control.</p><p>Another supporter of Putin's war is the United Arab Emirates. On February 23, 2022, A day after the invasion began, the United States and its Western allies asked the United Nations Security Council to demand an immediate withdrawal of Russian troops. Russia vetoed the resolution but the UAE, together with India and China, abstained on the vote </p><p>In February, 2023, Russia was welcomed at a UAE arms fair where it was allowed to exhibit a wide variety of military arms and equipment. <span style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.4px;"><span style="font-family: times;">Eight Russian arms manufacturing firms were exhibiting at the fair, including the Kalashnikov Group and Rosoboronexport</span></span><span face="cnn_sans_display, helveticaneue, Helvetica, Arial, Utkal, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.4px;">.</span> In 2022, trade between the UAE and Russia increased by 68%. Despite claiming to be "neutral," the UAE has decidedly supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine. <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/russia/article/2023/04/02/uae-is-on-team-russia-in-war-against-ukraine_6021450_140.html">The UAE is on team Russia in war against Ukraine</a></p><p>The UAE has benefitted from the Ukraine war in unexpected ways. A flood of Russian oligarchs have made Dubai their new home in the hope of evading Western sanctions on the Putin regime. One Dubai real estate firm saw a 100% increases in property sales during 2022. Real estate merchants have received hundreds of millions of dollars in commissions in selling properties to oligarchs such as Roman Abramovich, former owner of the Chelsea Football club. </p><p>That thousands of Ukrainians have been killed as a result of Putin's illegitimate war, often in the most brutal manner, means nothing to those UAE merchants who are profiting from the deaths happening far beyond their shores. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/rich-russians-fleeing-sanctions-are-pumping-up-dubais-property-sector.html">Villas by the sea: Rich Russians fleeing sanctions are pumping up Dubai’s property sector</a></p><p>In neighboring Saudi Arabia, realtions with the Putin regime have changed from hostility duo to its support for the Bashar al-Asad's brutal dictatorship which is propped up by the kingdom's enemy Iran to a warm relationship since 2017.</p><p>Saudi Arabia, historically a staunch ally of the United States, has recently cooperated with Russia to sustain high oil prices through the so-called OPEC+ agreement between the two states. Together the 2 states are the largest producers of oil in the world. Saudi Arabia, along with other Arab states, such as the UAE, continue to purchase large amounts of refined oil from Russia and often resell it in the international market. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas to Saudi Arabia.</p><p>Although Saudi Arabia voted with he majority of countries in the United Nations against Russia's annexation of 4 regions in Ukraine and another resolution calling on Russia to end the war the kingdom has invested millions of dollars in the Russian economy since the war began through its Kingdom Holding Company. </p><p>Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman has moved to develop cooperation with Russia on arms purchases. In March 2022, six internationally sanction arms companies were allowed to exhibit weapons systems at World Defense Show in Riyadh. This track record demonstrates considerable Saudi political and economic suport which helps Putin continue to pursue his brutal war in Ukraine.</p><p>Finally, there is the important impact of the Ukraine war on Iran. Its hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi, has been unable to improve the country's economy. Growth is stagnant, inflation is increasing and the rial has lost much of its value. One of the key problems is that Iran is suffering from United Nations and Western sanctions and has been cut off from the international banking system and other critical sectors of the global economy.</p><p>The war in Ukraine, however, has allowed Iran to find new political support from Russia. In return for delivering its Shahed-136 drones and other UAVs to Russia, Putin has provided Iran with discounted oil supplies and fighter aircraft. The Shahed costs about $20,000 and is used as a "suicide" aircraft designed to destroy civilian infrastructure and housing. While the Ukrainian air defenses have been very successful in shooting down these drones, each effort to bring a drone uses precious anti-aircraft missiles. Thus, waves of Shahed drones have enabled Russia to deplete Ukraine's air defense system.</p><p> Although this project began prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is also helping Iran build a nuclear reactor which will facilitate development of its nuclear weapons program. Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapon, especially its parallel development of ballistic missiles able to carry a nuclear warhead, have a high probability of prompting an attack by Israel. That Putin is helping Iran circumvent its international isolation due to its nuclear weapons program and human rights record, constitutes a destabilizing factor in the MENA region. </p><p>Egypt represents another untrustworthy US and Western ally in the MENA region. Leaked Pentagon documents indicate that Egypt was planning in 2023 to send 40,000 rockets to Putin as well large amounts of artillery shells to be used by the Russia armed forces in Ukraine. Only when the United States discovered this plan did Egypt abandon these efforts. Perhaps Egypt thought it might receive Russian grain if it assisted Putin, in light of the struggle it's having with acquiring grain to feed its population which has added to the country's high inflation rate.<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/18/egypt-agreed-to-supply-arms-to-ukraine-after-us-talks-report">Egypt agreed to supply arms to Ukraine after US talks: Report</a></p><p>That the country which is the second largest recipient of American foreign aid, after Israel, was ready to ignore international sanctions against the Putin regime should lead American leaders to rethink its support of the 'Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi regime. Egypt is a key sources of intelligence in the MENA region. However, if it is to work against the international community in supporting Putin, it should face consequences for such behavior.</p><p>The United States and the West should be concerned with developments in the MENA region following Putin's invasion of Ukraine. That the three most powerful countries in the region - Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE - have come to Putin's rescue is disconcerting. Ironically, the US' "turn to the East to confront China - has led to a significant decline in its influence in the Middle East. </p><p>Apart from China's doing an end run around the United States (see my May 2023 post: "Will China Become the New Hegemon in the Middle East"), Russia's ties to Iran, Turkey Saudi Arabia and the UAE have not only allowed him to more effectively pursue his invasion of Ukraine but pose serious problems for the MENA region's future relationship to the United States and the West. <a href="http://new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2023/05/will-china-become-new-hegemon-in-middle.html">Will China Become the New Hegemon in the Middle East?</a></p><p>As I argued in my May 2023 post, it is clear that the MENA region will no longer remain a primary sphere of United States influence. New thinking is needed. Resurrecting the idea of a League of Democracy, which John McCain proposed in the 2008 presidential elections, could create an international coalition which could act in tandem to prevent authoritarian regimes like Russia and China from further destabilizing the MENA region.</p>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-49263485496830290472023-05-31T21:41:00.019-04:002023-06-10T14:42:08.801-04:00Will China Become the New Hegemon in the Middle East?<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY22AE_TDTuAT7XZpnLL385yORllV_K4ugjsb1S5_3E5afTqOIBoPCAY7p2busBDsTQptEISaBytbXKR0R3NLR060lyMn1pKLCY9Kjf-DFV7J4kQ8FP74uUrc1LBK3DeACR_pHQnAEQmYp8QL4Q-gFyzCTQN__0qPp8jQpl52exTEWl5ik1lKx6b4aqw/s3017/JPEG%20Biden%20meets%20with%20Xi%20at%20the%20G-20%20Summit.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2263" data-original-width="3017" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY22AE_TDTuAT7XZpnLL385yORllV_K4ugjsb1S5_3E5afTqOIBoPCAY7p2busBDsTQptEISaBytbXKR0R3NLR060lyMn1pKLCY9Kjf-DFV7J4kQ8FP74uUrc1LBK3DeACR_pHQnAEQmYp8QL4Q-gFyzCTQN__0qPp8jQpl52exTEWl5ik1lKx6b4aqw/w400-h300/JPEG%20Biden%20meets%20with%20Xi%20at%20the%20G-20%20Summit.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Joe Biden meet with Xi Jinping, November 2022</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Much ink has been shed over China's success in reestablishing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Middle East's most antagonistic powers. China's role in MENA region politics hasn't just been limited to bringing two antagonists together to reestablish diplomatic relations. Since 2005, China has invested $273 billion in the region, more than any other country. Do developments in the first 2 decades of the 21st century point to China becoming the main power in the MENA region?<div>Should we be rushing to anoint it regional hegemon?<br /><p></p><p>There is little doubt that China represents a major component of the economic fabric of the MENA region. Further it supplies weapons to several countries in the Middle East. In 2017, the People's Liberation Army built its first regional base in Djibouti. In 2013, China launched its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which is designed to provide funds for infrastructural development to the countries of the Global South. BRI is helping Egypt develop a new (highly over budget) capital east of Cairo and it built a metro in Mecca, Saudi Arabia.</p><p>Analysts have failed, however, to consider what constraints domestic developments in China itself might place on its desire to play a more central role as a political and economic power broker in the MENA region. I would argue that, under the rule of Xi Jinping, China, is shooting itself in the foot. Xi's policies, together with structural changes over which he and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have little control, suggest that China may very well face a decline in its global power in the decades to come.</p><p><i>Leadership </i>How has China achieved the position of a global superpower today? If Mao deserves credit for seizing control of China from Chang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang, he doesn't receive high marks for developing the Chinese economy after 1949. Mao's disastrous Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution were ideologically driven policies which severely cramped China's economic growth.</p><p>It was Deng Xiaoping's decision in 1978 to open the Chinese economy to market forces which led to China's economic miracle reflected in growth rates which reached between 6 and 8% per year. Reacting to Mao's lengthy rule, the CCP adopted a policy of two terms for the Party Secretary. While China remained an authoritarian state, state policies became more pragmatic and less ideological in orientation.</p><p>Under current president and party secretary, Xi Jinping, the pendulum haas swing back to a Mao style rule. If Mao had his little Red Book, Xi has his 14 Points which every Chinese citizen must learn by heart. Xi seeks total control over the CCP, the state apparatus and the economy. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/whats-news/china-puts-spymaster-in-charge-of-overseeing-western-businesses/fb648284-7f4c-4e55-9e41-7fb791ce51c5">China Puts Spymaster in Charge of Overseeing Western Businesses</a></p><p>Fearful that the prosperous entrepreneurial class has attained too much power and present a challenge to his rule, Xi has cracked down on private enterprise. The result has been the disappearance of a number of prominent business men, the arrest and trail of others on charges of corruption and tax evasion, and the moving of many businesses out of China to safe havens like Singapore and the United States.</p><p>Xi's hostile policies towards private enterprise have slowed and even, in many instances, reversed, foreign investment in China. Xi ignores the fact that it was China's economic growth and large market which attracted foreign capital and catapulted China into its position as a global power. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-fading-recovery-reveals-deeper-economic-struggles-31f4097b?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1">China’s Fading Recovery Reveals Deeper Economic Struggles</a> </p><p><i>Structural change </i>China is experiencing an aging population. Workers are harder to come by and thus wages have been pushed upward. The main incentive for foreign capital to invest in China was not just its large market, but its large workforce and low wages. As wages have risen, many foreign firms were already leaving China and moving to Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia and Malaysia where labor costs are lower. Even before Xi's intervention in the Chinese economy, foreign capital was beginning to turn negative on producing its products in China. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economy-faces-deeper-problems-than-its-slowing-growth-11673963577?mod=Searchresults_pos9&page=1">China’s Shrinking Population Is Deeper Problem Than Slow Growth for Its Economy</a></p><p>Much of China's rapid economic growth was based upon the expansion of its housing market. However, that market has now been saturated. Many Chinese can't afford the cost of new apartments, leaving large numbers of housing projects sitting empty throughout the country's major cities. That many large cities face thousands of empty apartment buildings indicates the distorted nature of China's economic growth which has been powered by housing and infrastructure.</p><p>A critical issue which has not received adequate attention is China's looming water crisis. As a 2022 report from the Lowy Institute noted, approximately half of China's aquifers are too polluted for farming or industrial use. and 80-90% of its groundwater is unfit for drinking. The Himalayan glaciers are rapidly melting. Because waters from the Himalayan mountains feed China's Yangtze River, this development poses a major threat to water security. Water security will require much more focus on domestic rather than foreign affairs by the Xi regime. <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/water-scarcity-challenges-china-s-development-model#:~:text=Groundwater%20drilling%2C%20coupled%20with%20breakneck,tap%20for%20industry%20or%20farming.">Water scarcity challenges China’s development model</a></p><p><i>Chinese youth </i>Xi's authoritarian style extends to youth who have been exhorted to adhere to the "9-9-6" work schedule, i.e., 9 am to 9 pm, 6 days a week. Xi has also stipulated that young Chinese should be limited in the number of hours they spend each day on social media and playing video games.</p><p>Given an aging population, educated youth have become an ever more important component of China's workforce. It is clear, however, that Chines youth c=don;t want to become the "economic shock troops" for Xi's ultra-authoritarian order. In fact, large numbers of youth have created an ingenious response to the "9-9-6" protocol. It is, in effect "lying flat," namely prone on a couch or bed for large parts of the day involved in leisure activities like consuming social media or reading.</p><p>Given the example of large numbers of Russian youth - the best and the brightest of its rising professional, technocratic and scientific class - who have fled Russia as a result of Putin's invasion and war in Ukraine, Xi's threat to forcibly seize Taiwan is not well received by the next generation. Indeed, one result of Xi's authoritarianism may be to lead young Chinese with needed skills to leave the country and take up residence in the West. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/30/business/china-youth-unemployment.html?smid=tw-share">China’s Young People Can’t Find Jobs. Xi Jinping Says to ‘Eat Bitterness’</a></p><p>What makes matters worse is the high unemployment rate among Chinese youth. Even students university degrees are having great difficulty finding employment. One problem is that universities have been graduating students with degrees which don't match China's needs. The outcome is a souring on the Chineses economy by its youth <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/19/business/china-youth-unemployment.html?searchResultPosition=1">1 in 5 Young Chinese Is Jobless, and Millions More Are About to Graduate</a></p><p><i>Competition with the West </i>With the United States building an International coalition to deny China access to cutting edge technology in the manufacture of semiconductor chips, China will lag behind the West in developing in producing this critical resource. Xi's efforts to extend China's influence in the South China Sea through building military bases, often on artificially created islands, his bellicose language and posture towards Taiwan, his repression of Hong Kong democracy demonstrators, and his crackdown on private enterprise, including foreign firms, is one reason why the United States has become more concerned with China's foreign policy intentions .</p><p>Based on denying China access to the latest chip technology, its weapons systems will be less effective and thus less desirable to countries like Saudi Arabia. We also need remember that Chinese arms have not been used in any large scale conflict since the Korean War. Thus, there is still much doubt about how effective it really is compared to American and European weapons. This consideration means the United States, European (and possibly Israeli) weapons systems will remain the default source of arms for most MENA region states. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/02/business/china-stocks-hang-seng-csi-300.html">Investors Have Soured on China’s Stocks, Renewing Fears About Economy</a></p><p><i>Negotiating the complexities of MENA region rivalries and conflict </i>It is one thing for China to facilitate Saudi Arabia and Iran reestablishing diplomatic relations. It is quite another for it to create a balance in which its is able to maintain close realtions with both countries. Muhammad bin Salman sees close ties with Iran as a means of extricating Saudi Arabic from the disastrous war in Yemen and reducing its dependency on the United States which it views as an unreliable ally. </p><p>However, the recent rapprochement between the 2 enemy states should be viewed more as a latter day Molotov-von Ribbentrop Pact, namely a temporary policy of convenience which will not last. It is only a matter of time before renewed tensions emerge putting Iran and Saudi Arabia at loggerheads.</p><p>Iran continues to develop weapons grade uranium. It possesses 6 times the amount allowed under the 2016 JCPOA nuclear agreement. Israel has vowed that it will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, especially with Iran having developed ballistic missiles which could carry a nuclear warhead. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-64810145">Iran nuclear: IAEA inspectors find uranium particles enriched to 83.7% Published</a></p><p>What if Israel attacks Iran in a preemptive strike against its nuclear facilities? Would China come to the aid of Iran? Almost certainly, China would condemn the Israeli attack but, I suspect, do little more. Would such lack of support anger the Tehran regime and undermine its relationship with China?</p><p>If the Yemen civil war erupts again, and Saudi Arabia is drawn into the conflict leading the pro-Iranian Houthi forces to repeat their shelling of the kingdom, would China intervene to support MBS' regime? Again, little more than verbal support for Saudi Arabia could be expected.</p><p>If a renewal of the Yemen war brought Saudi Arabia and Iran to blows, what policy would China follow? While it would probably seek to mediate the conflict, it would find itself immersed in a conflict which is stoked by a larger regional rivalry. Xi's regime would be drawn into a web of conflicting interests with little possibility for reaching any long-term solution.</p><p>Finally, what if Saudi Arabia acquires nuclear weapons? In light of China's current assistance to help the kingdom develop what is said to be a peaceful nuclear program, many observers, including the United States, think the program is ultimately aimed at developing nuclear weapons. As an ally of both Iran and Saudi Arabis, how would China preclude what could be a catastrophic war between the two Gulf powers? <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/01/us/politics/saudi-arabia-nuclear-biden-administration.html">Inside Saudi Arabia’s Global Push for Nuclear Power</a> </p><p><i>Is the Concept of a Regional Hegemon Outdated? </i>The United States has been criticized, both in the MENA region and elsewhere, for "withdrawing" from the region. Putting aside China entry into the region's politics, can the United States sustain its traditional role as a hegemon given the massive changes affecting the Middle East?</p><p>In the Israeli-Palestine dispute, the United States has lost almost all its historic influence in affecting the crisis. In Saudi Arabia, MBS is developing a new type of authoritarian rule which rejects traditional Sa'ud family and tribal rule in favor of a model which characterizes Russia and China. The US still has influence through its arms sales to Saudi Arabia, but much less ability to influence MBS' decision-making and policies.</p><p>The United States has been unable to prevent the reversal of democracy in Tunisia, the one success story which emerged from the Arab Spring. In neighboring Libya, civil strife still prevails, despite NATO intervention in 2011 to help overthrow the Qaddafi regime. The Biden administration has had little success in changing 'Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi's intolerance towards dissent as Egypt's prison population continues to grow.</p><p>In short, it is no longer possible for one power to play the role of hegemon in the Middle East. The spread of political repression, corruption, civil strife and failed states presents a level of challenges that no one superpower can effectively move the region in ways which accord with its national interests.</p><p>In the 2008 presidential election, John McCain proposed the creation of a "League of Democracies." While not my preferred candidate, McCain did have a good idea. The United States, Canada, European democracies and democracies from other parts of the world need to create an organization which can use both the carrot and the stick to promote democracy and civically minded leaders who seek to raise the standard of living of their citizens, not line their own pockets.</p><p>While this proposal may seem naive, let's remember that Western support of repressive authoritarian regimes has been an abject failure. Having a League of Democracies promote social democracy which affords citizens a decent standard of living and personal freedoms would give them hope in the future and go a long way towards ending the rising level of conflict that consumes the MENA region.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p></div>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-8702906724894249652023-04-30T22:27:00.034-04:002023-06-03T16:52:10.462-04:00Sudan and the Crisis of Failed States in the Arab World<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-gW8B7HTpB8CUyo8IlLiRxMO5we_KNo1J7Ody-7oQYmW4Ri9MT7TI1Fx7z2y8MBASAO2AXg7J4bRDihWVxzv1GCMyfa8eNtH004cR2ozzH05U8uo5Ns9qFamOrpVnM04P7fyIvEEWnZr0RNzeH9McKqAQVoU0eeceYoOCT_Y81SBpxflLWbZ82jNsBg/s976/Sudan%20fighting%20BBC%2043023.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="976" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-gW8B7HTpB8CUyo8IlLiRxMO5we_KNo1J7Ody-7oQYmW4Ri9MT7TI1Fx7z2y8MBASAO2AXg7J4bRDihWVxzv1GCMyfa8eNtH004cR2ozzH05U8uo5Ns9qFamOrpVnM04P7fyIvEEWnZr0RNzeH9McKqAQVoU0eeceYoOCT_Y81SBpxflLWbZ82jNsBg/w400-h225/Sudan%20fighting%20BBC%2043023.webp" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Fighting in the Sudanese capital Khartoum</td></tr></tbody></table><br />The Arab world is well known for its "democracy deficit." This problematic state of affairs may be soon surpassed by an even more dubious distinction, namely the crisis of <i>failed states</i>. Across the Arab world, Yemen, Libya, Syria, and Lebanon are all failed states. Given the intense fighting between two rival generals in Sudan, we may soon see the largest country in sub-Saharan Africa join the list. It is not a stretch to envision Tunisia joining the list as well.<p></p><p>Why are so many Arab states unable to preserve their sovereignty and national security? More ominously, does the Arab experience suggest that the problems the region is facing are spreading to other regions of Africa and South Asia as well? The answer is that the problems undermining political authority in the Arab world are larger than the region. Thus, an analysis of the region helps us comprehend a larger dynamic which is affecting much of the Global South.</p><p>In explaining failed states in the Arab world, we need to focus on three stages: the collapse of secular ideology, the onset of foreign direct investment (FDI), and the development of neoliberalism accompanied by massive corruption and criminality. </p><p><i>The collapse of secular ideology </i>The legacy of colonial rule demonstrated that the collaborative neo-colonial regimes which Great Britain, France and other European powers established after ceding independence lacked legitimacy. Despite the pretense of democratic elections, these post-WWI regimes were dominated by landowners and merchants and incipient industrialists which did little or nothing to improve the conditions of the mass publics over which they ruled.</p><p>The military and single party coups which began after WWII promised revolutionary change, especially under the banner of Pan-Arabism. Despite high hopes, the Pan-Arab slogan of "unity, democracy and socialism" failed to materialize. As Egyptians noted, with their ingrained sense of humor, all Jamal 'Abd al-Nasir (Nasser)'s revolution accomplished was to spread Egypt's poverty more evenly.</p><p>The Pan-Arab social contract offered political stability and economic security in return for political quiescence. University education would be free and college graduates would be guaranteed a government job. Citizens would receive monthly food rations at minimal cost. Transportation would be subsidized. To undermine Islamist movements and appear more modern to the West, gender equality was emphasized, although women remained second class citizens.*</p><p>The Pan-Arabist Social Contract was short lived. Repression of dissent, the institutionalization of the military in nationalized industry, the defeat in the 1967 war, and the struggle between Egypt, Syrai and Iraq for control of the Pan Arabist movement all delegitimized the ideology. The slow growth of the state public sector prevented regimes from continuing to provide social entitlements, except through accumulating large debts.</p><p><i>The onset of foreign direct investment (FDI) </i>Following the disastrous June 1967 Arab -Israeli War, Egypt found itself cut off from Suez Canal and sizable tourist revenues, while bearing the burden of residents forced to leave the Suez Canal and move west to Cairo and other urban areas. When Jamal 'Abd al-Nasir died in September 1970, his Vice-President, Anar Sadat, replaced him. </p><p>Sadat, as is well known, put Egypt on a very different foreign policy and domestic trajectory than that of al-Nasir. He terminated military ties with the Soviet Union, released Nasir's arch enemies, the Muslim Brothers, from jail (so they could attack the left-wing of the Nasserite movement), and proclaimed his <i>al-infitah </i>- the "Open Door" policy to the US and the West. The Open Door was an attempt to attract foreign investment to Egypt to overcome its sluggish economic growth.</p><p>At the Eighth Party Congress of Iraq's Ba'th Party in 1974, Saddam Husayn moved away from the socialism and "anti-imperialism" which characterized the party's ideology since it seized power in 1968, and began to seek foreign investment in the Iraq's economy. When I arrived in Iraq for a two month stay in May and June of 1980, my minders at the Ministry of Information took me to a number of Western projects, such as a steel mill being built by San Francisco based Bechtel Corporation and France's Creusot-Loire engineering conglomerate.</p><p>Syria waited longer to seek Western FDI. Between 2000 and 2010, Syria's legal system underwent significant change, offering tax holidays and other market-based incentives. During the first decade of the 20th century, there was sharp uptick of FDI which reached a peak in 2009. The primary countries which invested in Syria were Russia and Germany. The main areas of FDI were telecommunications, banking and electricity sectors.</p><p><i>The rise of the corporate-criminal state </i>Pan-Arabism slipped from Arab collective memory during the 1970s and 1980s. As globalization spread, Arab elites in Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Libya and elsewhere became increasingly involved with foreign capital. The standard of living and general well-being of mass publics became an afterthought. State subsidies for food and transportation, and benefits such as government employment based on a university degree, declined as Arab states sought to lower national debt to increase their attractiveness as investment targets.</p><p>Arab leaders of the 1990s lacked the experience of having participated in the anti-colonial struggle of the inter-war and post WWII eras. In Tunisia, for example, Habib Bourguiba had ruled as an autocrat. Still, he allowed the formation of government controlled labor unions, promoted women's rights and allowed state-supervised civil society to form. After he was deposed in 1987, his successor Zine al-Din Ben Ali established an incredibly corrupt regime. In is no coincidence that the Arab Spring began in Tunisia when a frustrated vegetable and fruit vendor, Muhammad Bouazizi, immolated himself when he no longer could afford the daily brides in the town in which he lived to conduct his business and support his extended family.</p><p>The Arab Spring uprisings quickly spread from Tunisia to Egypt, Syria, Libya and Yemen. Only Tunisia experienced any meaningful transition to democracy with Ben Ali's ouster. Nevertheless, the inability of successive governments to improve Tunisia's economy. combined with the spread of corruption. allowed President Qa'is Sa'id to seize power in 2020, restructure the constitution, and centralize power in his hands. In effect, Tunisia has once again become an autocracy.</p><p>Shorn of ideology and befitting from lucrative contacts with foreign corporations, an ever widening gap has developed between political elites and the citizenry at large. During the Arab Spring, the Syrian and Egyptian regimes used the argument that the opposition was comprised of radical Islamists and therefore needed to be repressed. The violent strife which accompanied the Arab Spring led to a large number of displaced persons. In Syria, half of the population has been affected by the ongoing civil war.</p><p>The large influx of refugees into neighboring countries has caused additional political turmoil. Over 4 million Syrians moved to Syria. However, it was the influx of over 2 million Syrians into Lebanon which has pushed it the verge of fiscal collapse. The storied Lebanese banking system, has run out of funds. The result has been that depositors can't accessing their bank accounts, leading to attempts to "rob" banks to obtain their funds.</p><p>Th extent of corruption in Lebanon's political elite became manifest after a huge amount of ammonium nitrate, over 2700 hundred tons, which had been illegally stored in Beirut's post for 6 years, exploded in August 2020. The explosion destroyed a large part of the city, killing 218, injuring 7000 and displacing over 300,00 residents.</p><p>Despite determined efforts of Lebanese judges, all efforts to investigate the crime and bring those who caused it to justice have failed. The political elites from a wide variety of confessional groups - Christian and Muslim - and Hizballah, which controls the most seats in parliament and half the cabinet ministers, have stymied all attempts to move the investigation and trials forward.</p><p><i>Egypt -a Proto-Failed State</i>?<span> </span>Egypt represents the archetypical military-corporate state. It is a bifurcated state. On the one hand, there is the Egyptian government appointed by General 'Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt's dictatorial ruler. This consists of the usual array of ministries with limited budgets. On the other, there is the military-financial complex in which military officers and business elites close to the al-Sisi regime enjoy all the benefits of Egypt's wealth while leaving millions of their fellow citizens in abject poverty. <a href="http://new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2013/08/egyptian-armed-forces-inc-middle-easts.html">Egyptian Armed Forces, Inc.: the Middle East's New Janissary Corps</a></p><p>The great gap in wealth is combined with spatial segregation. The military-financial elite lives in upscale neighborhoods or in gated communities and socializes in exclusive clubs. There is minimal interaction between the elites and the populace at large. Indeed, only those Egyptian's who possess <i>al-wasta </i>(political influence) have any hopes of entering the elite's ranks. </p><p>Just like the Rapid Support Forces and the national army in Sudan, and the all powerful militias supported by Iran in Iraq, the Egyptian military is deeply compromised by its control of Egypt's economy. This control is symbolically codified in an Egyptian law which makes publishing the military's budget a crime. Estimates are that the military controls at least 1/3 of Egypt's economy. <a href="https://carnegie-mec.org/2019/11/25/egypt-s-military-now-controls-much-of-its-economy.-is-this-wise-pub-80281">Egypt’s Military Now Controls Much of Its Economy. Is This Wise?</a></p><p>Meanwhile, the Sisi regime has done little to generate the jobs needed for a rapidly growing population, now almost 108 million. University graduates are frustrated and angry because they can't find employment based on their merits. Instead, they see youth who have <i>wasta </i>receiving the premium positions. </p><p>Poverty is a major problem in Egypt with almost 30% of the population suffering from low incomes, access to food and shelter and healthcare. The war in Ukraine has raised the cost of living because Egypt imports most grains which it needs to feed its population. Thus, current statistics surely underestimate the current rate of poverty.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp1gtZv1qW35lO-3fHi-LfuJcAtn--Dw7-z03l7x9Ldwcgzr0qP3ud84jByMH_V4ergDNrBnHniOKMR7U2QZ1SE8S_BL36ykF1Or6hItJgHUAHWq_EgrEW4939COvFlBU8fg8wLCyFrZX3GDj5dTKfJ4CqCqM_f9mHI7VmdMUcFTGgMQQDaY-kEV1ftw/s355/Egypt%20poverty%20rates%202018-2023.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="253" data-original-width="355" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp1gtZv1qW35lO-3fHi-LfuJcAtn--Dw7-z03l7x9Ldwcgzr0qP3ud84jByMH_V4ergDNrBnHniOKMR7U2QZ1SE8S_BL36ykF1Or6hItJgHUAHWq_EgrEW4939COvFlBU8fg8wLCyFrZX3GDj5dTKfJ4CqCqM_f9mHI7VmdMUcFTGgMQQDaY-kEV1ftw/w400-h285/Egypt%20poverty%20rates%202018-2023.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p>Despite building one of the largest solar farms in the south near the border with Sudan, Egypt has done little to address another serious problem, that of global warming. The rising sea level of the Mediterranean is beginning to push its waters up the two tributaries of the Nile River. The resulting salinization of the water and soil is adversely affecting agricultural production in these regions. Ironically, Egypt was given the presidency of the United Nations' COP27 Meeting which was an international embarrassment in light if its having ignored to date its domestic environmental problems.</p><p>Egypt is also facing a dangerous threat to the south where Ethiopia has built the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Nile River which will hamper the flow of critically needed water resources downstream. Egypt has declared the dam to be a national security threat and warned of possible military action to attack it if Ethiopia begins to fill the lake behind it. </p><p>However, Egypt is doing little to modernize its agrarian sector and teach farmers how to better allocate water used for irrigation. It could make better use of the model developed by the Egyptian firm, Karam Solar, which provides solar panels to farmers which enables them to avoid use polluting and expensive diesel fuel and allows them to access and pump water from deeper in the ground to use for irrigating their crops.</p><p>Like most MENA region autocracies, the Sisi regime lacks an ideology and hence any meaningful legitimizing mechanism. The military-financial elite demonstrates no civic consciousness. Its only goal is increasing its profits and wealth. This state of affairs has engendered considerable dissent among the educated classes. Unable to tolerate any criticism, the Sisi regime has arrested large numbers of Egyptians, resulting in an estimated 60,000 prisoners held under horrific conditions in its infamous prisons. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63542472">COP27 shines spotlight on Egypt's political prisoners</a></p><p>One reason the Egyptian political class has been able to weather a number of storms, including the ignominious defeat in the June 1967 six day war, Anwar al-Sadat's assassination in 1981 of threats from radical Islamism and the 2012 Arab Spring uprisings has been the cohesion derived from its social base. </p><p>As Leonard Binder documented years ago in his study, <i>In a Moment of Enthusiasm: Political Power and the Second Stratum in Egypt</i>, the Free Officers movement which led the July 1952 coup which overthrew the monarchy under King Faruq was rooted in a rural middle class of notables and middle level landowners. This social stratum has provided the social base of the al-Nasir (Nasser) and subsequent regimes.</p><p>Will the military-financial elite be able to rely upon oppression to maintain its current grip on power and prevent Egypt from becoming a failed state? While Egypt's elite did successfully negotiate the Arab Spring uprisings, the toppling of President Husni Mubarak notwithstanding, it is doubtful that it can sustain its rule if it continues to ignore the serious challenges facing Egypt.</p><p>Sudan had its own uprisings in 2019. However, its military-financial elite was not about to allow power to flow into the hands of democratic leaders who might expose and break up its corrupt hold on the country's economy. Even though the military-financial elite in Egypt is still largely unified politically, it too could experience schisms developing within it if pressures from below emerge, such as large scale protests demanding a change in the authoritarian status quo. <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/04/meet-sudans-web-warlords-foreign-backers-and-their-tangled-alignments">Meet Sudan's web of warlords, foreign backers and their tangled alignments</a></p><p>Foreign powers, whether from Russia or China, or from the West, will continue to pressure MENA region states which possess critical economic resources, whether oil, natural gas, gold, other precious metals, or agricultural products. Any hope for a move towards democratization of MENA region nation-states seems unlikely indeed.</p><p>____________</p><p> *Although it should be noted that, when I visited Baghdad in May and June of 1980, the majority of physicians in the capital were female. </p>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-20696774145395742392023-03-20T21:31:00.009-04:002023-03-20T21:32:14.222-04:00What is the Legacy of the United States' 2003 Invasion of Iraq?<p><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdiRN69BO_F-mfCK4kvDuDmZJKhLpIS7uLUkg5TffiKhnG5-Ik6MgOU9-RKL8JLtaS6Bf2GhASvp8x-642KrqecS1vPCX6za9XC-0AZYGScAPMYx_5DSz3IqpXLpWxHJCpPiLhLR_sdoS1LhUCOCA8IRsHJOyg-3X8Hzq10MbDl3YZrKzkizKvEpKlTw/s660/JPEG%20Invasion-de-Irak%20Shock%20and%20Awe.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="660" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdiRN69BO_F-mfCK4kvDuDmZJKhLpIS7uLUkg5TffiKhnG5-Ik6MgOU9-RKL8JLtaS6Bf2GhASvp8x-642KrqecS1vPCX6za9XC-0AZYGScAPMYx_5DSz3IqpXLpWxHJCpPiLhLR_sdoS1LhUCOCA8IRsHJOyg-3X8Hzq10MbDl3YZrKzkizKvEpKlTw/w400-h200/JPEG%20Invasion-de-Irak%20Shock%20and%20Awe.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">"Shock and Awe" - Baghdad March 20, 2023</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: medium;">Twenty years ago today, the Bush Administration launched the United States invasion of Iraq. What is the legacy of the invasion? Was it justified and what was its impact on Iraq? What are the lessons learned by the invasion and toppling of Saddam Husayn's regime?</span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">To begin, there is no question that Saddam Husayn was one of the world's most notorious war criminals and guilty of massive human rights abuses. It is estimated that Saddam killed 3 million Iraqis during his rule between 1968 and 2003. This is equal to 15% of Iraq's population, and doesn't take account of all the Iraqis killed due to Saddam's invasion of Iran in September 1980 and seizure of Kuwait in August 1990 which killed thousands of Iraqi troops and innocent civilians.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The Bush administration's invasion of Iraq was an illegal operation. The United Nations dod not authorize the attack. The time in which to remove Saddam from power was in March 1991 when a majority of the Iraqi population rise up against Saddam. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The uprising (Intifada) in the Kurdish north and the Arab south at the time would have deposed Saddam had not the United States intervened to allow Iraqi helicopter gunships to take to the air and suppress the Intifada. Had Saddam's regime been toppled, while United States were in Iraq, would have prevented the brutal United Nations sanctions of 1991-2003. The sanctions destroyed the Iraqi education system and the professional middle classes. <i>In short, the first mistake made by Bush the Elder was not to end Saddam's regime in 1991</i>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The 2003 invasion was based on a lie. The CIA and Bush administration knew that Iraq did not possess weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Unfortunately, Saddam refused to admit Iraq had no WMD because he was afraid if he did Iran would consider Iraq as weak and be encouraged to invade and overthrow his regime.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The US occupation was initially directed by General Jay Garner, someone who had some knowledge of Iraq and the Arab world. However, he was considered to "pro-Arab" and soon repealed by an arrogant official, Paul Bremer, who had no experience in the Arab world and was ignorant to navigate complex situation of a country which had suffered 2 major wars and the mist severe sanctions regime ever imposed on a nation-state in the modern era.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Bremer who was appointed to head the new Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) in 2003. As CPA Administrator, his first decisions began a long list of destructive policies. The dissolution of Iraq's 400,000 man strong conscript army (separate from Saddam's Republican Guards or Special Republican Guards) included large number of soldiers who were battle trained, having fought in the 8 year Iran-Iraq War (1980-88) and Gulf War (1991), created the basis for the insurgency which Saddam had planned if US forces were successful in deposing him.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Now that large numbers of soldiers were unemployed, even if they received salaries for a period after having been released from military service, were available for mobilization against US forces. According to a study of the impact of the army's dissolution, the firing of 400,000 troops had a negative impact on an estimated 10 million Iraqis, taking into account the families which these soldiers salaries had supported.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">By the fall of 2003, an insurgency was underway, even if Bush's Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, continued to deny its existence. Not only did the insurgency include ex-Ba'thists but also former conscript army members who were paid to fight and kill American troops. Ominously, it also began to attract radical Islamists and members of al-Qa'ida who saw in Iraq an opportunity to take up arms against the United States. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The second consequential decision Bremer took was to fire all members of Iraq's Ba'th Party, not taking into account those who were forced to join to maintain their government employment (when included a large segment of the Iraqi population). This decision deprived Iraq of large numbers of critically needed professionals for the reconstruction of Iraq, whose economy and infrastructure had been destroyed in two wars of bombing of Iraq and the United Nations sanctions regime.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Beyond the CPA's forst 2 decisions, other problematic decision were being made in Washington, DC, primarily by Vice President Dick Cheney and members of the Defense Department, especially Assistant Secretary of Defense, Paul Wolfowitz and his assistant, Under Secretary of Policy Planning, Douglass Feith.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The Bush administration's cooperation with Iraqi exiles who had maintained close ties to the so-called Islamic Republic of Iran was. mind boggling. Had not George w Bush included the Tehran regime as one of three countries who comprised the "Axis of Evil" (the other 2 being Saddam's Iraq and North Korea). Why then would the United States invite someone like Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) to visit Paul Wolfowitz in Washington and become a post-2003 power broker in Iraq?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The Bush administration's policies also laid the foundation for the extensive corruption which plagues Iraq today. Because there was no banking system in 2003, cash in US dollars was flown into Iraq and distributed in large bundles to finance reconstruction projects. Under these circumstances, huge amount of funds disappeared. When the amount estimated about $16-18 billion could not be accounted for, George Bush finally agreed to appoint a Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGAR). </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">His choice for the position was a friend, Stuart Bowen, who he had know for years. Little did he know that Bowen woulds take his job very seriously. To Bush's chagrin, Bowen discovered massive corruption in both the awarding of contracts for reconstruction projects and further lost funds for many projects once completed. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Bowen also discovered that many projects were never in Iraq's interests but were intended instead to maximize the profits of American corporations such as Halliburton which they realized. Others were never completed. Key projects, such as repairing and expanding Iraq's decrepit electric grid, were avoided. Instead, projects such as a hospital with expensive medical equipment which was difficult to maintain and service which, in any event, was never completed. In short, the bold statements about rebuilding Iraq after the 2003 invasion bore little fruition.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Paul Bremer also contributed to undermining confidence in democracy in Iraq - one of the purported goal of the toppling of Saddam - by trying to fix the outcome of the first elections held in post-Saddam Iraq in January 2005. When Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani learned of Bremer's efforts, he intervened to prevent his machinations. Throughout Bremer'd tenure as CPA Administrator, al-Sistani refused to meet with him.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">One of the Bush administration's last but more egregious decisions was to appoint the arch-sectarian Nuri al-Maliki as Iraqi prime minister in 2006. This decision would lead to al-Maliki's alienation of Iraq's Sunni Arab population which set the stage for the seizure of Mosul and much of North Central Iraqi in June 2014.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Ironically, the most effective American policy in Iraq was not initiated by the Pentagon but by middle rank officers in the field. What came to be known as the Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP) was based on a simple idea. Whenever there was an uptick in violence in an Iraqi town or urban quarter, middle range officers would take money in safes on their bases which had been confiscated from Ba'thists attempting to flee the country in 2003 and use it to put local residents to work in the areas experiencing conflict.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">One US Army captain told me that he avoided using small bulldozers and employed shovels instead so that he could give the maximum number of men jobs sand a salary. Work included repairing sewer and water lines, refurbishing schools, building simple sports centers, and cleaning up the neighborhood.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The United States should have used Saddam's massive human rights abuses to mobilize an international coalition under United Nations auspices to remove Saddam from power and bring to trial in an international court. However, to single out Saddam would have laid the Bush administration open to the question of why other dictators the US supported were also not removed from power.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Ultimately, the removal of Saddam was not about establishing a true democracy in Iraq. It seemed instead to be mostly concerneed with intimidating neighboring Iran and Syria, and giving US energy corporations access to high quality Iraq oil. If there were the true reason for the invasion, they both present one of the worst failures of US foreign policy in modern American history. </span></p>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-75604614605999335722023-02-27T21:39:00.008-05:002023-03-01T15:19:57.850-05:00The Fracturing of National Identity: Iran and Israel between Secular Liberalism and Politicized Religion - Part 2<p></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></p><p></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><i></i></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpyQ1TTPJ14XT_mOc8HvXnAnm7kB95gkDRVJBCEipcawMHHsU5yzWeIykJx75hx-9YKD0IjLWwbwe6E2hi_UU8nBvoiCE2BrYvqCRX21z9ruH4rLe9S-Z3YdmeQDJBsQMdOUqSosKsTHBX0gvPa9kFJ7qa-o570bVlqQ8KHfKervx0DJ9nFaNT-oVYDA/s290/Israeli%20demonstrations.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="174" data-original-width="290" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpyQ1TTPJ14XT_mOc8HvXnAnm7kB95gkDRVJBCEipcawMHHsU5yzWeIykJx75hx-9YKD0IjLWwbwe6E2hi_UU8nBvoiCE2BrYvqCRX21z9ruH4rLe9S-Z3YdmeQDJBsQMdOUqSosKsTHBX0gvPa9kFJ7qa-o570bVlqQ8KHfKervx0DJ9nFaNT-oVYDA/w455-h273/Israeli%20demonstrations.jpeg" width="455" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Demonstrations protesting efforts to sideline Israel's Supreme Court</td></tr></tbody></table><i>This post represents Part 2 of a two effort to analyze the fracturing of national identity in Iran and Israel and its possible consequences for the MENA region. See Part 1 at: https://new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-fracturing-of-national-identity.html </i><div><i><br /></i></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">As I argued in Part 1 of this post, Iran and Israel are both confronting a fracturing of their respective national identities. In Iran, there is a strong desire among the majority of the population, especially the under 40 demographic which represents 80% of Iranians, for democracy and personal freedoms, including freedom of expression, freedom for women not to be forced to wear the hijab, and for the right to develop civil society organizations not under the control of the state.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">In Israel, the sociopolitical cleavage is quite different. Here we find a democracy marching towards majoritarian rule. Having won parliamentary elections this past November by a ew percentage points, the most far right government in Israel's history is quickly pushing through the Knesset (parliament) laws that will in effect end the ability of the country's Supreme Court to declare laws unconstitutional and give politicians greater control over the appointment of judges.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">The efforts to radically restructure Israel's democracy has not gone down well among secular Israelis who fear the damage the far right government will do to the country. It includes many ultra religious ministers and supporters who, in effect, want to make Israel a theocratic state.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">From 1948 when the State of Israel was founded, it was dominated by the MAPAI or Labor Party which, in partnership with the much smaller MAPAM Party, represented the dominant political movement under the Yishuv (the pre-state Zionist community in Palestine). At its founding, a cleavage already existed between secular, left leaning Zionists and the religious community in Israel and, the right wing revisionist parties, which would later coalesce to become the Likud Party.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">To address this cleavage, the Labor Party controlled foreign policy, including the post of Prime Minster, and of ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense. However, the National Religious Party was given control of the Ministry of Education. This balancing between secular and religious Israelis was sustained until the Likud Party, under the leadership of Menachem Begin, won a stunning victory in 1977. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">While the Labor Party was able to win some subsequent elections, the rise of the right wing has continued since 1977. Today, a majority of Israelis identify with the right, whether nationalist or religious, while the Labor Party has all but disappeared.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://en.idi.org.il/articles/34046">Only 29% of Israelis Believe that the Elections Will Break the Political Stalemate</a><br /></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Increasingly, it is almost impossible for a secular center-left coalition to come to power in Israel. The extreme nationalist and religious right control 72 of the Knesset's 120 seats. Thus, any Israeli government must be established through building some type of coalition with right wing parties. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">How did the right in Israel replace the left of center Labor Party coalition? Already before the Likud's victory in 1977, the Labor Party had been ripe with corruption in state run entities such as the Histradut, the large public sector union. As in other democracies around the world, Labor governments had moved towards more neoliberal policies which undermined the power of the working class. It also did little to incorporate Jews from Arab countries, the so-called <i>Mizrachim</i> ("Easterners").</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">During the 1980s, Israel witnessed increased immigration of Russian Jews. Having experienced discrimination as Jews and repression for political activities, these immigrants hardly viewed the USSR as a "progressive," Marxist state. Their experiences in Russia made them more inclined to join right wing parties. This political tendency set them apart from the Russian and East European Jews who had immigrated to Palestine during the Yishuv and joined the Labor and MAPAM parties.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">The growth of the settler movement in the West Bank after Israel seized it from Jordan in the June 1967 Six Day War created a new constituency which had no interests in seeing a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. As the settlements grew, they increasingly encroached on Palestinian land, which was often seized without compensation and legal redress. At the same time, the Israeli government has refused to issue permits to Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem to build new homes. indicating to many Palestinians that their hoped for independent state wasn't in the cards.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/04/27/threshold-crossed/israeli-authorities-and-crimes-apartheid-and-persecution">Human Rights Watch - A Threshold Crossed Israeli Authorities and the Crimes of Apartheid and Persecution</a> </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Settlements have also gained strength through support from Evangelical Christians in the United States. Evangelicals believe that the Messiah will reappear in the area currently constituting the Israeli state when Judgment Day occurs. As a result of shrewd lobbying by the settler movement in the US, the Republican Party, whose social base includes large numbers of Evangelical Christians, has strongly supported the settlement movements retaining their land in the West Bank. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Settle movement lobbying has been focused on the American Israel Politcal Action Committee (AIPAC) as well. Also, significant funding for the settlers has come from US donors. David Friedman, who served as US ambassador to Israel during the Trump administration, is just one of many wealthy Jewish Americans who have contributed to the settler movement.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/81847/hidden-in-plain-sight-us-nonprofits-as-drivers-of-illegal-israeli-settlements/">Just Security - Hidden In Plain Sight: US Nonprofits as Drivers of Illegal Israeli Settlements</a><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">The right received a political boost from the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005. In elections held after the withdrawal, the more moderate Fatah Party was soundly defeated by the Islamist Hamas movement which seized power and has been ruling it ever since. On a number of occasions, Hamas has fired rockets into Israel, especially after upsurges of violence in Jerusalem and the West Bank.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">In 2000, Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon which it had occupied since the 1982 invasion designed to destroy Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) bases in the south, During its occupation of the south, Israeli forces had been in constant conflict with Hizballah, a powerful Shi'a militia backed by Iran. In July 2006, Hizballah killed 8 Israeli soldiers during a cross-border raid into northern Israel. Two other soldiers were kidnapped and later killed. These events led to the 2006 Israeli war. The Israeli response led to extensive bombing of southern Lebanon and the extensive destruction of infrastructure. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">The Israeli bombing resulted in a fusillade of rockets launched by Hizballah forces from the southern Lebanese mountains. In the ensuing war, thousands of Israelis were forced to leave the north of the country to be out of range of Hizballah rockets. The war shook both Lebanon and Israel and raised concerns among civilians on both sides of the conflict about the future of their security in the regions in which they resided.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">In May 2021, a simmering crisis in the Shaykh Jarrah section of East Jerusalem came to a head. Palestinians were worried about an imminent Supreme Court decision which would evict them from their homes. Demonstration began leading Israeli police to enter the compound of al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem where violence broke out between the police and demonstrators. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Hamas demanded that the police leave the mosque, one of the holiest sits in Islam.. When they didn't, Hamas began a rocket campaign with some rockets reaching far into Israel, some near Jerusalem. Israel began a bombing campaign of the Gaza strip and fighting broke out in Lod and several other Israeli cities between Jewish and Palestinian Israelis. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Synagogues and mosques were attacked and businesses burned. Many Israelis, both Jewish an Arab, were severely wounded. The inter-ethnic conflict left deep scars` in Israeli society. For those on the right, the violence provided support for their narrative that Israel's Arab citizens could not be trusted</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">When studying the rise of the Israeli right wing nationalists, an issue which has not received enough attention is demographic change. Orthodox Jews in Israel have a much higher birth rate than secular Israelis. Among what is often referred to a "traditional religions," the ultra-orthodox have on average 6.8 children per family, while the orthodox have 3.7 per family. However, among secular Israelis, the birthrate is only 2.9 children per family. Thus the religious community, much of which supports right-wing nationalism, is becoming an ever larger percentage of the population.</span></div><div><a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/israels-rightward-shift" style="font-size: large;">CSIS -Israel's Rightward Shift</a></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">At the same time, education for orthodox students is implicitly politicized. Because the Land of Israel belongs to the Jewish people, it cannot accommodate the Palestinians. Further, the orthodox definition of who is Jewish excludes conservative and reform Jews, thus, threatening to create a deep split in world-wide Jewry.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/30/opinion/netanyahus-new-ministers-have-very-strict-ideas-about-who-is-a-jew.html?searchResultPosition=3">Netanyahu’s New Ministers Have Very Strict Ideas About Who Is a Jew</a> </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">With the installation of the most far-right government in Israel's history, the trends discussed above have finally come to dominate Israeli politics. The former government of Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, which included right wing centrist and left wing parties, as well as an Arab Islamist party seemed like Israel might have found a formula to bridge the secular-religious divide. However, the Naftali-Lapid government ran afoul of disagreements with the right wing coalition parties and collapsed.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">With the far right now ascendant, we can see some of the future outcomes of Israel's politics. Israel investment finds are already leaving Israel. Without a national legal system which enjoys autonomy from political interference, investors are loathe to invest in a financial environment which is overshadowed by uncertainty arising from political conflict and potential instability, e.g., a standoff between the Supreme Court and the Netanyahu government over constitutional authority.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/hkpmig9ci">Exit strategy? 90% of entrepreneurs: If we start a company today, it will be outside of Israel</a><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Israel is suffering from an identity crisis. A growing chasm exists between two visions of the future. One sees a secular liberal democratic Israel which will try to build a society for all its citizens and hopefully find a solution to the Israel-Palestinian dispute. The other sees an illiberal democracy where a majoritarian rule is the order of the day. and a nationalist politicized form of Judaism determines public policy. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">We already see huge demonstrations on an almost daily basis by Israelis who are fiercely opposed to the changes in the legal system which the Netanyahu regime is attempting to oppose on Israel's judicial system. While it may be an exaggeration, some Israels speak of a possible civil war as members of the military are threatening not to obey orders if the Supreme Court's authority is drastically curtailed.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3SQiEH3fUFhWuiMm_6i3lme_8mf9I1sZWrFLRnko6gSY0q0oC-M_aJPROqq3k8p6jlud59qk7K7Fx3lzUnm24JlIHxuJFbLwTzfV24NW1e4XFRrSvTmlSE3xpk66WhDKS_zxfIWFXl62lKmEVc7G7w0gKcYnD2cHAmRZegPdvroUc7hMAK0JNezlg7g/s680/Israel%20from%20Startup%20Nation%20to%20Shutdown%20Nation.22823.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="510" data-original-width="680" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3SQiEH3fUFhWuiMm_6i3lme_8mf9I1sZWrFLRnko6gSY0q0oC-M_aJPROqq3k8p6jlud59qk7K7Fx3lzUnm24JlIHxuJFbLwTzfV24NW1e4XFRrSvTmlSE3xpk66WhDKS_zxfIWFXl62lKmEVc7G7w0gKcYnD2cHAmRZegPdvroUc7hMAK0JNezlg7g/w400-h300/Israel%20from%20Startup%20Nation%20to%20Shutdown%20Nation.22823.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Poster opposing Netanyahu's changes to the judicial system </td></tr></tbody></table>In Iran, the majority of the country is demanding a dramatic transformation of their political system. Protestor demands call for a secular democracy with elections and freedom of expression assembly and, for women, of dress. The existing regime would be dismantled and its phony, politicized version of Islam would be tossed in the trash can of history. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">As the sporadic protests persist and women's refusal to wear the hijab, the legitimacy of the so-called Islamic Republic" sinks to its lowest level since the 1978-79 Iranian Revolution.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">The regime has completely lost the younger generation, including many young clerics, who oppose the regime's brutal suppression of protests.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">In Israel, what Thomas Friedman calls "messianic religious zealots" seek to impose their own form of a phony, politicized religion. They seek to establish a far-right nationalist and quasi-theocratic state which is alien to democratic political culture. These zealots, including several sitting cabinet ministers, promote violence as a means to implement the sociopolitical change they seek. <br /><br />The recent political protests in Iran and Israel represent stunning developments. The outcome of these developments will have serious consequences for the MENA regime for years to come<br /><br /> </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><br /></div>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-53460183379163018582023-01-30T19:29:00.012-05:002023-03-01T20:54:53.113-05:00The Fracturing of National Identity: Iran and Israel between Secular Liberalism and Politicized Religion - Part 1<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmxrYP2Yk0Nv7R1GJv-ZkEg8EexhjWr_PUIG4WftdOxSdRMXoCGM59x89hdUTrf_D2NxOWW2MkOO1v2GJXinuG-ML1ZMGcevO78O1oyluzOEhTe0W5rrGJEpyzAhJmENEV6XYIajwVKkA5XucCtqP2vxk4A0q_MEyx0Zydv0GHLA_6bB1eoORE-hXOgA/s275/Women%20Life%20Freedom%20Iran%20Jan%2030%202023.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmxrYP2Yk0Nv7R1GJv-ZkEg8EexhjWr_PUIG4WftdOxSdRMXoCGM59x89hdUTrf_D2NxOWW2MkOO1v2GJXinuG-ML1ZMGcevO78O1oyluzOEhTe0W5rrGJEpyzAhJmENEV6XYIajwVKkA5XucCtqP2vxk4A0q_MEyx0Zydv0GHLA_6bB1eoORE-hXOgA/w400-h266/Women%20Life%20Freedom%20Iran%20Jan%2030%202023.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i style="text-align: left;">This post represents Part 1 of a two effort to analyze the fracturing of national identity in Iran and Israel and its possible consequences for the MENA region. See Part 2 on Israel: https://new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2023/02/the-fracturing-of-national-identity.html </i></td></tr></tbody></table><br />No two countries in the MENA region exhibit more hostility to one another than Iran and Israel. It might seem odd, but both these countries suffer from similar problems which afflicts many countries in the world today, namely the fracturing of national identity. Neither Iran nor Israel possess a unified national political culture. Instead, both societies have been diverging long different paths resulting its sharp cleavages among its citizenry. What are the implications of these developments for the MENA region?<p></p><p>Iran has never had the opportunity to exercise democracy except for a short period after World War 11. The overthrow of the duly elected Iranian prime minister, Muhammed Mossadegh in 1953 was carried out by a CIA coup supported by Iran's military and much of its clerical class, The coup led to the reinstatement of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi who subsequently developed an extremely repressive regime.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">The toppling of the Shah's regime by the Iranian Revolution of 1978-79 was never intended by most participants to replace a secular tyrant with a clerical tyrant. However, the most conservative forces in the revolutionary coalition led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini were able to consolidate power by1983. Iran now became an Islamic Republic. </td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIrx29DH-VRy58Rv1US7sEJ-33_Im1QV9VP-UuqcdwWYmbIsTkdJTNwGFPSPSR75o7Bt5_QRgs5waT4tf2JDOGcDGPu6-HJ3cuxZ8OdGUUdLARByBp4dcSWt7AZ1iMeOT1K1ZYIGdqSKtJjp9inLn3dP3T5j13X6pQ0dCtHt4fct-GjNJiwxcj3eTNJw/s976/JPEG%20Iran%20mourners%20fo%20Amini%20fired%20on%20by%20police.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="976" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIrx29DH-VRy58Rv1US7sEJ-33_Im1QV9VP-UuqcdwWYmbIsTkdJTNwGFPSPSR75o7Bt5_QRgs5waT4tf2JDOGcDGPu6-HJ3cuxZ8OdGUUdLARByBp4dcSWt7AZ1iMeOT1K1ZYIGdqSKtJjp9inLn3dP3T5j13X6pQ0dCtHt4fct-GjNJiwxcj3eTNJw/w400-h225/JPEG%20Iran%20mourners%20fo%20Amini%20fired%20on%20by%20police.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Iranians mourning Mahsa Zina Amini fired on by the police<br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;">For several years after Khomeini's consolidation of power, Irans' economy improved, contributing to the popularity of the regime. However, this economic improvement didn't last and the regime's increasingly oppressive policies such as mandating that women wear the hijab began to erode its power. </div></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>The one element which gave some Iranians hope that the regime might moderate itself was the existence of periodic elections for the the national parliament and the presidency of the country. With the emergence of a growing cleavage between moderate and hardline clerics after Khomeini's death, the hope of reform was actualized in the election of Mohammed Khatami as Iran's president in 1997. </p><p>Khatami, who ran on a platform of freedom of expression, strengthening civil society, and a platform of "Dialogue Among Civilizations," in response to Samuel Huntington's well-known book, <i>The Clash of Civilizations</i>, embodied the hopes of liberal minded clerics, professionals, the business sector which wanted to ope the Iranian economy to foreign investment, leftists and youth. In 2001, the United nations named the year as that of "Dialogue of Civilizations," following Khatami's suggestion.</p><p>Despite very little media attention, Khatami defeated his conservative rival winning 70% of the vote. The election itself saw a remarkable 80% turnout. Even in the conservative theological seminary city of Qum, Khatami received 70% of the vote. Clearly the election indicated that Iranians wanted a new, more open and democartic political system.</p><p>After winning 2 terms, Khatami stepped down in 2055 after serving the limit of 2 terms. He was succeeded bu a har-liber Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. In 2009, he threw his support to his colleague, another reformer, Mir-Hossein Mousavi. Most observers believe the election was fraudulent and characterized by massive voting irregularities as Ahmedinejad was proclaimed to have won a second term. The result was an outpouring of opposition in the streets to the election. In the repression of the demonstrations, thousands of Iranian protestors, the vast majority of whom were peaceful, were arrested or killed by security forces. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/10/travel/10Iran.html?searchResultPosition=1">The Other Iran</a></p><p>Ahmedinejad's presidency was characterized by increased human rights violations. The number of death sentences for juveniles tripled under his rule and attacks on the LGBTQ community were commonplace. Indeed, Ahmedinejad asserted that there were no LGBTQ Iranians at all. His consistent attacks on Israel which threatened to destroy the state raised international fears as Iran continued its nuclear energy program which was viewed by most international analysts to really constitutes an effort to develop nuclear weapons.</p><p>In 2006, the United Nations Security Council began imposing sanctions on Iraq when it refused to terminate its uranium enrichment efforts. These sanctions were increased in 2007 and 2008 and in 2010, Iran was subject to a complete arms embargo. Ahmedinejad argued that the sanctions were "illegal," adding power to his hardline supporters.</p><p>The sanctions, combined with widespread corruption among the clerical elite and expenditures on Iran's nuclear program and support for allies in Lebanon and Iraq and Syrian president Bashar al-Asad's regime, undermined the economy. Youth found it difficult to find employment and careers, even with a university degree, unless they had ties to the regime.</p><p>In 2013, centrist reformer, and well respected cleric, Hassan Rouhani, won the presidency. Although he maintained close ties to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Rouhani grained the support from reformers and youth given his promises to open Iran to foreign investment, improve the economy and seek to resolve its conflicts with the international community. His close ties not just to the regime but to the Green Movement which had contested the 2009 elections results led to a decisive victory.</p><p>By 2017, when Rouhani sought a second term, hardliners nominated Ebrahim Raisi to run against him. Raisi, is infamously known as the "hanging judge" for his brutal repression of dissidents in 1988 when Ayatollah Khomeini ordered the mass executions of members of the opposition group, Mujahidin al-Khalq and large numbers of leftists. The estimates of those executed were as high as 30,000 people. Raisi ran a lackluster campaign. Rouhani beat him with an impressive 57% of the vote in an elections that saw a 71% voter turnout rate.</p><p>Having had enough of reformers, Iran's Guardian Council, which must approve all candidates for public office, disqualified anyone with reformist credential from running in the 2021 presidentail elections. Meanwhile, Raisi, now seen as a possible successor to Khamenei, who is ill with leukemia, ran for president again, This time he was successful, winning 65% of the votes but with a voter turnout of 48% and 3,7 million ballots left blank as protests votes.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3d7f46mVqzH6HlZmX5-ZINhTTrz29DX6exAQsqCmurEPItKjPJvQddqqE_Umr6Y_3QXeABobM6j3FUOAOj08nv8r6OXUlDNV9aZwty4u4SffZon_f1454tMroVArhOqMiBWjTRxU26u_71CG1SzLmDX91w2n-A-P7AHSCGnZnMVETKLujbPObcsAvcA/s850/JPEG%20%20Iranian%20high%20school%20girls%20leading%20protests%20in%20Iran.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="460" data-original-width="850" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3d7f46mVqzH6HlZmX5-ZINhTTrz29DX6exAQsqCmurEPItKjPJvQddqqE_Umr6Y_3QXeABobM6j3FUOAOj08nv8r6OXUlDNV9aZwty4u4SffZon_f1454tMroVArhOqMiBWjTRxU26u_71CG1SzLmDX91w2n-A-P7AHSCGnZnMVETKLujbPObcsAvcA/w400-h216/JPEG%20%20Iranian%20high%20school%20girls%20leading%20protests%20in%20Iran.webp" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">High school girls are leading protests in Iran</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>Raisi is part of the gentrifications of Iran's clergy who are increasingly out of touch with the younger generation, 80% of which is under the age of 40. His support for strict sex segregation and reference to same sex marriage as "savagery" is rejected by large numbers of Iranian youth, especially urban educated youth. His support for amputation as a punishment for theft and refusal to accept that the Holocaust occurred underscores his hardline and rigid approach to political and social affairs.</p><p>On September 9, 2023, a young woman, Mahsa Jina Amini, was traveling to Teheran from her home in Iran's Kurdish region in the northwest, when she was stopped by Iran's "morality police." She was accused of wearing her hijab improperly. Amini was arrested and taken to prison where she was beaten. Taken to a hospital, she died the next day.<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/12/world/middleeast/iran-women-protests-strike.html?searchResultPosition=31">Protests in Iran Spread, Including to Oil Sector, Despite Violent Crackdown</a></p><p>Once the news began to circulate, thousands of Iranians too to the streets to protest Amini's death, including large numbers of female youth. Wide scale demonstrations brought sections of many of Iran's major cities to a halt. As of the writing of this post, security forces still face sporadic protests throughout the country.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimFsKY9nmlah9035nwHMgwroapd0XTwKnfI_SpP1v5_Dp9Hd5c61bky9gS9AbKpX6bbipwonF6bLCL1hF_5KBIbnvGtBmTilhUHbQzWVU45u0GytjMtyu7mhOdmG_-3YfaG8s805N2Siu0L_rxkuRWPTsMvpu4M-aVHRVcWpsQ3hzeGKNU7TFBvyDfnw/s300/JPEG%20women%20life%20freedom.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimFsKY9nmlah9035nwHMgwroapd0XTwKnfI_SpP1v5_Dp9Hd5c61bky9gS9AbKpX6bbipwonF6bLCL1hF_5KBIbnvGtBmTilhUHbQzWVU45u0GytjMtyu7mhOdmG_-3YfaG8s805N2Siu0L_rxkuRWPTsMvpu4M-aVHRVcWpsQ3hzeGKNU7TFBvyDfnw/w400-h224/JPEG%20women%20life%20freedom.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><div><span>In Iran, the majority of the country is demanding a dramatic transformation of their political system. Protestor demands call for a secular democracy with elections and freedom of expression assembly and, for women, of dress. The existing regime would be dismantled and its phony, politicized version of Islam would be tossed in the trash can of history. </span></div><div><span><br /></span></div><div><span>As the sporadic protests persist and women's refusal to wear the hijab, the legitimacy of the so-called Islamic Republic" sinks to its lowest level since the 1978-79 Iranian Revolution.</span></div><div><span>The regime has completely lost the younger generation, including many young clerics, who oppose the regime's brutal suppression of protests.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-89556646447857243002022-12-31T16:18:00.001-05:002022-12-31T16:18:14.639-05:00From Bad to Worse: The Globalization of Middle East Autocracy<p><span style="font-family: times;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ4DmecdpuFxTA58TWJyWsUGwSw_3ls-lRUPf9F7TMAMWHytyFGHzM1TTkLJwOHz2BSUhTw7tH5S3nA7NPD_al8VTpfFaYjfBcqi995NjdbVNlGgoUP34hvghvW4eGL7ez_bzsa1OpEunigVby1Yi10CEc9eLCZ6m15JI_4ydYLMm6XyZJymDbKmT6Gw/s1280/China%20Arab%20Summit%20December%202022.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ4DmecdpuFxTA58TWJyWsUGwSw_3ls-lRUPf9F7TMAMWHytyFGHzM1TTkLJwOHz2BSUhTw7tH5S3nA7NPD_al8VTpfFaYjfBcqi995NjdbVNlGgoUP34hvghvW4eGL7ez_bzsa1OpEunigVby1Yi10CEc9eLCZ6m15JI_4ydYLMm6XyZJymDbKmT6Gw/w400-h225/China%20Arab%20Summit%20December%202022.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Arab-China Summit, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Dec 9, 2022</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></span><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: times;">More than any other region of the world, authoritarian rule is pervasive and institutionalized in the Middle East (MENA). In the one Arab Spring success, Tunisia is now ruled by Ka'is Said, a quasi-dictator who has eviscerated its constitution and created a rubber-stamp parliament. This week the Algerian military shut down Radio M, the last free media outlet in the country. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">In Egypt, 'Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi has imprisoned thousands of dissidents for mild criticism of his regime. In the country's notorious prisons, they suffer brutal conditions including torture. In Iran, youth are hung in public for demonstrating against the government (accused of "warring against God") while young women demonstrators are raped in security forces detention facilities.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Saudi dictator Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) represents a new type of autocrat in the mold of Saddam Husayn. Gone is the norm of consultation among Saudi royals with the king acting as<i> primus inter pares</i>. After fleecing all Saudi princes who might be future opponents, MBS has offered the Saudi people "bread and circus," such as Western wrestling matches and rock concerts while simultaneously engaging in massive human rights abuses.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: times;">MBS has ordered mass executions of Saudi citizens, most of whom are innocent of any crime, and the jailing of dissidents. The </span><span style="font-family: times;">execution of 81 Saudis , 41 of whom were from the Kingdon's Shi'a minority,</span><span style="font-family: times;"> occurred 3 days before </span><span style="font-family: times;">former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's visit in May 2022. During the visit, MBS hypocritically </span><span style="font-family: times;">discussed the need for human rights with the British leader. And let's not forget MBS' ordering the murder and dismemberment of the respected <i>Washington Post</i> journalist, Jamal al-Khashoggi, a dual national with US and Saudi citizenship, for which the Saudi dictator has suffered no consequences.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Meanwhile, the few traditional democracies in MENA have collapsed or are in the process of collapsing. Lebanon is a failed state which is under the control of Hizballah, an armed militia supported by Iran. An estimated 80% of the population lives in poverty and Lebanese citizens can't even withdraw funds from their bank accounts. Grain imports are tenuous and serious food insecurity is on the rise throughout the country. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">In Turkey, Recip Tayyib Erdogan has transitioned from a mild-mannered Islamist who supported the trappings of democracy to a full-on autocratic. Turkey enjoys the dubious distinction of having the largest per capita imprisonment of journalists of any country in the world. To ensure that he wins this coming year's presidential elections, Erdogan engineered the 2 and a half year imprisonment of his strongest rival, Ekrem Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Israel, long touted as the MENA region's only democracy, is now ruled by a hard right government which seeks to marginalize the judiciary by giving parliament the right to override Supreme Court decisions. Because Israel lacks a formal constitution, the Court has been the main institution in Israel which has protected minority rights and the rule of law. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">With the Ministry of Defense and new Ministry of National Security, which controls the police, under ministers who seek to expel Palestinians from the West bank and East Jerusalem and potentially annul the citizenship of Israel's Palestinian Arab citizens if they engage in "anti-national" behavior, Israel is on the road to autocracy. Meanwhile, talk of annexing the West Bank - the Palestine National Authority - grows, as do plans for dramatically expanding illegal settlements on Palestinian land.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">If these examples of increased authoritarian rule in the MENA region weren't bad enough, a new development threatens to further strengthen the rule of local autocrats. This threat stems from the increased involvement of Russia and China in MENA region affairs.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Russia has been supporting the scelrotic Syrian regime of Bashar al-Asad, primarily to protect its sole Mediterranean naval base at Tartus and its Khmeimim airfield near Latakia. Russia has sent the Wagner Group, a brutal mercenary organization, to help the al-Asad regime fight radical jihadists in Syria.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">However, after Putin's invasion of Ukraine, the degree to which Russia and Saudi Arabia under MBS have formed an alliance in OPEC+. is clear. In a major snub to the United States, one almost unheard of in past Saudi-US relations, MBS refused to increase oil output to dampen rising global energy prices. Instead, the Saudis maintained a small increase in production which helped keep prices high, providing higher revenues for Putin with which to pursue his brutal war in Ukraine. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Facing an unexpected protracted war in Ukraine, Putin recently turned to Iran (and North Korea) to bolster his forces with munitions and arms as Russian supplies have dwindled. The most serious threat to Ukraine has come from Iran which has supplied hundreds of Shahed 129 drones to Russia. These drones have been used to attack Ukraine's electrical, water and other infrastructure to devastating effect.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been training Russian forces how to use the drones in occupied Crimea and there is a proposal to build a factory in Russia to produce the drones. In exchange, Russia has promised the Iranian regime that it will supply it with fighter aircraft, adversely impacting the balance of military power in the Gulf region. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">As other NATO members have imposed sanctions on Putin's regime following the invasion of Ukraine, Turkey has drawn closer to the Russian dictator. Russian oil sales to Turkey have dramatically increased, providing Putin with desperately needed revenue to pursue his illegitimate war. Istanbul has become a refuge for Russian oligarchs and their wealth, e,g., their super yachts.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Turkey isn't the only MENA region state to assist Putin in his war making. Neither Saudi Arabia nor the any of the Arab Gulf states have imposed sanctions on Russia. Indeed, Dubai has become a desired destination for Russian oligarchs who need not worry that their assets will be seized while staying there.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">A greater threat is the increased presence of China in the MENA region. Xi Jinping's recent visit to Saudi Arabia stood out for the extravagance and pageantry with which the Chinese president and his delegation were received by MBS, compared to the much more muted and low-key reception of President Biden during his state visit to the Kingdom this past July.</span></p><p class="paragraph inline-placeholder" data-analytics-observe="off" data-component-name="paragraph" data-editable="text" data-uri="archive.cms.cnn.com/_components/paragraph/instances/paragraph_863FB3EB-93E3-A36D-DC46-FC7F5BE213D6@published" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: var(--theme-paragraph__line-height--from-small); margin: 0px 0px 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.4px;">This year Saudi Arabia made a $10 billion investment through its oil company, Aramco, to develop a refinery and petrochemical complex in China’s northeast. That Xi's visit led to a joint statement following 3 days of meetings which stressed the future of Saudi-Chinese energy cooperation demonstrates the degree to which the United States has been shoved aside by the kingdom in its traditional role of providing security in exchange for purchasing Saudi oil. </span></span></p><p class="paragraph inline-placeholder" data-analytics-observe="off" data-component-name="paragraph" data-editable="text" data-uri="archive.cms.cnn.com/_components/paragraph/instances/paragraph_863FB3EB-93E3-A36D-DC46-FC7F5BE213D6@published" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: var(--theme-paragraph__line-height--from-small); margin: 0px 0px 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.4px;">What was left unsaid in the Saudi-Chinese joint statement at the end of Xi's visit was whether China will supply its highly sophisticated surveillance technology to Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf states with which it is cultivating relations. This technology would place a weapon in the hands of MENA region dictators which would greatly enhance their capacity to intensify repression of their respective populations. </span></span></p><p class="paragraph inline-placeholder" data-analytics-observe="off" data-component-name="paragraph" data-editable="text" data-uri="archive.cms.cnn.com/_components/paragraph/instances/paragraph_863FB3EB-93E3-A36D-DC46-FC7F5BE213D6@published" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: var(--theme-paragraph__line-height--from-small); margin: 0px 0px 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-family: times; letter-spacing: 0.4px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">It is ironic that, with the United States emphasizing its "shift to the East," namely to confront growing Chinese power in East Asia, China has moved to fill the vacuum in the MENA region caused the downgrading of American policy in the MENA region. Disturbed by what they see as growing threats from Iran's influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and a feeling that the United States can no longer be trusted to protect their security, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors are looking to China for arms sales.</span></span></p><p class="paragraph inline-placeholder" data-analytics-observe="off" data-component-name="paragraph" data-editable="text" data-uri="archive.cms.cnn.com/_components/paragraph/instances/paragraph_D71B025D-8FFC-967E-FDDF-FC7F5C0B5F9C@published" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: var(--theme-paragraph__line-height--from-small); margin: 0px 0px 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.4px;">Are there potential problems with MENA region autocrats shifting their policy towards Russia and China? First, how is Putin going to reconcile his closer military ties with Iran and the close relations he wants to maintain with Saudi Arabia in the context of OPEC+? Second, neither Russian weaponry, which has performed terribly in Ukraine, nor untested Chinese weaponry, can serve as a substitute for much higher quality American and Western arms. China likewise will need to find ways to balance its Arab ties with those it maintains with Iran.</span></span></p><p class="paragraph inline-placeholder" data-analytics-observe="off" data-component-name="paragraph" data-editable="text" data-uri="archive.cms.cnn.com/_components/paragraph/instances/paragraph_D71B025D-8FFC-967E-FDDF-FC7F5C0B5F9C@published" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: var(--theme-paragraph__line-height--from-small); margin: 0px 0px 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.4px;">Third, will Arabs and Iranians view these new ties favorably? The populations of most MENA region countries are comprised of youth under the age of 30. Will Russian and Chinese culture and the authoritarian policies they embody be attractive to these highly Westernized demographics? Will MENA region youth find the Chinese 9/9/6 model acceptable, namely working 9 am to 9 pm, 6 days a week? </span></span></p><p class="paragraph inline-placeholder" data-analytics-observe="off" data-component-name="paragraph" data-editable="text" data-uri="archive.cms.cnn.com/_components/paragraph/instances/paragraph_D71B025D-8FFC-967E-FDDF-FC7F5C0B5F9C@published" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: var(--theme-paragraph__line-height--from-small); margin: 0px 0px 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.4px;">Could expanded ties with Russia and China, potentially leading to even intensified repression, encourage a large "brain drain" from the region? While a growing brain drain might not harm a country like Egypt, the Arab Gulf states suffer from small populations and can ill afford their youth leaving the country for Europe, the United States and other countries where political and cultural freedoms are less restrictive.</span></span></p><p class="paragraph inline-placeholder" data-analytics-observe="off" data-component-name="paragraph" data-editable="text" data-uri="archive.cms.cnn.com/_components/paragraph/instances/paragraph_D71B025D-8FFC-967E-FDDF-FC7F5C0B5F9C@published" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: var(--theme-paragraph__line-height--from-small); margin: 0px 0px 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.4px;">What is clear is that the United States does itself no favors but focusing on China and East Asia to the exclusion of the MENA region. Xi promised MBS that China would help the Kingdom develop nuclear energy. Could that assistance lead to a nuclear arms race between the Saudi and Iranian regimes? With the war in Ukraine, global inflation and supply chain problems, and the ongoing Covid pandemic, the Biden administration has a lot on its plate. But its neglecting the MENA region is a policy that is penny-wise and pound </span></span><span style="background-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.4px;"><span style="font-family: times;">foolish.</span></span></span></p><p class="paragraph inline-placeholder" data-analytics-observe="off" data-component-name="paragraph" data-editable="text" data-uri="archive.cms.cnn.com/_components/paragraph/instances/paragraph_D71B025D-8FFC-967E-FDDF-FC7F5C0B5F9C@published" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: var(--theme-paragraph__line-height--from-small); margin: 0px 0px 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><br /></p>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-80570343163559409842022-11-30T16:20:00.013-05:002022-12-07T14:00:44.958-05:00World Cup 2022: Profits and Authoritarian Intolerance or Human Rights and Sports Integrity?<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfQPbDIRO9wMLOD_tLznURI6CVO07-qOFXWp7BpzYNelZo5GmvZIGKSepfT54ht3jfL1hWmo498VctUsLxIPqB5kVxkhq_TIi-hlE-XmrACvjTNO7sDfZMwSksVvjqD5bEoCDZMrGkrNeI-eM5ekZ6kyCFQoXjUuEo3u7m0SJJukrd05nDth3iWmUBdA/s1300/WORLD%20CUP%202022%20OPENING%20gettyimages-1443489248_custom-a916f8ef9d84d450908a0ff69071a7f7deeea6fe-s1300-c85.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="865" data-original-width="1300" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfQPbDIRO9wMLOD_tLznURI6CVO07-qOFXWp7BpzYNelZo5GmvZIGKSepfT54ht3jfL1hWmo498VctUsLxIPqB5kVxkhq_TIi-hlE-XmrACvjTNO7sDfZMwSksVvjqD5bEoCDZMrGkrNeI-eM5ekZ6kyCFQoXjUuEo3u7m0SJJukrd05nDth3iWmUBdA/w400-h266/WORLD%20CUP%202022%20OPENING%20gettyimages-1443489248_custom-a916f8ef9d84d450908a0ff69071a7f7deeea6fe-s1300-c85.webp" width="400" /></a></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">Should a new set of rules be developed which will force FIFA, football's international governing body, to follow certain guidelines when awarding a country the right to host the World Cup? Does the world want the World Cup to be held in intolerant authoritarian nations which do not allow their citizens to practice the freedoms and liberties which those who live in democratic societies take for granted? </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">Held every 4 years, the World Cup is a huge celebratory event, highlighting the most popular sport in the world. A sporting event of such popularity and magnitude, which bestows great international prestige, on the host country should not be compromised by authoritarian rulers. </span></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPDJWj2So7KSEZ9fi8XxxXOzZkrODSwXBXcXQg9oOZ4F73ujWfOSUX8y0p7yWpih1OOCVOG9YxKe7Zv6zmNKFUoZy7ZIjANSqaOVtILXiWgPMBORLbgDFRiwSBnPRhHCxUD6hiyVQZd3w0oHF7ULi6YTUOFk7ScuYbpniBcFcX6aRAXVc6dd1yYJEENw/s1920/World%20Cup%20stadiums%20being%20built%20103509623-GettyImages-508479228.jpeg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPDJWj2So7KSEZ9fi8XxxXOzZkrODSwXBXcXQg9oOZ4F73ujWfOSUX8y0p7yWpih1OOCVOG9YxKe7Zv6zmNKFUoZy7ZIjANSqaOVtILXiWgPMBORLbgDFRiwSBnPRhHCxUD6hiyVQZd3w0oHF7ULi6YTUOFk7ScuYbpniBcFcX6aRAXVc6dd1yYJEENw/w411-h225/World%20Cup%20stadiums%20being%20built%20103509623-GettyImages-508479228.jpeg" width="411" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A football stadium under construction in Qatar</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i><span style="font-size: large;">Authoritarianism, corruption and awarding the 2022 World Cup </span></i></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Awarding the 2022 World Cup in Qatar was a colossal mistake. The Arab Gulf state is ruled by an authoritarian regime which tolerates no dissent. The al-Thani monarchy suppresses women's rights and those of members of the LGBTQ+ community. One family should not have the type of control it has has wielded prior to and during the 2022 World Cup.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">We should ask how and why Qatar was awarded the right to host the World Cup. It seems that corruption played a major role as the 22 member FIFA board of directors was wined and dined by the Qatari regime for a lengthy period of time running up to issuing the award. Two members of the FIFA board were dismissed due to accusations they sold their votes for holding the World Cup in Qatar. <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/plot-to-buy-the-world-cup-lvxdg2v7l7w">Plot to buy the World Cup</a></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Qatar, a country the size of Connecticut, was the most unlikely venue for the 2022 World Cup when it received the award in 2010. First, it had no infrastructure where football games could be played. Second, its national team was virtually unknown in international competition. Finally, it has a small population (87% of the local residents are migrant workers) who, to this day, show little interest in football. Indeed, the fans who attended the Qatari team's games (both of which the national team lost), were actually Lebanese who were hired as surrogates for the Qataris who declined to attend their home team's matches.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span>That Qatar spent more than $220 billion to prepare for the World Cup, including renovating its sole stadium and building 7 new ones, demonstrates the extent to which it sought to use the sporting event to promote its influence in the Arab Gulf and project it onto the world stage. Surrounded by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both of which imposed an embargo on Qatar until recently due to its support of the Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt in 2012-2013, the small emirate finds itself largely isolated in the Arab Gulf. Thus, football was not the motivating factor for Qatar in using its huge fossil fuel wealth to buy local and international influence and prestige. </span><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/henryflynn/2022/11/27/qatar-has-spent-well-over-200-billion-on-a-flawed-world-cup/?sh=6df285c31062">Qatar has spent well over $220 billion on a flawed world cup</a></span></p><p><i><span style="font-size: large;">The migrant worker scandal</span></i></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">By the regime's own reckoning, large numbers of migrant workers who were employed to build the stadium and other infrastructure for the World Cup either lost their lives. Other workers suffered heat prostration whose damaging health effects will not become manifest until later in their lives. Only after international pressure did Qatar agree to improve working conditions for migrant labor. Even so, the pressure to complete preparations for the 2022 World Cup still led migrant labor to be exploited.<a href="https://westobserver.com/news/europe/fact-check-how-many-people-died-for-the-world-cup-in-qatar/">Fact Check: How many people died for the World Cup in Qatar?</a></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsnQr_LdBhwXg6Bipsn4McQHrEmLfwyBFO6BcqI_qoAAOAaVUQTOZ1R3pgqs_pgcvrOv2g8qksSByLXw0LsNB91Qz_-1vSbqfKNHgm4wLiZo9gP4gmy8OShvGvuTHT1DWcx-eJcbCweTyyUE3mPcopqBsQHVeiXBtWLLVO_3LTWwjG5IDLGR3oimguvw/s300/worker%20protests%20in%20Qatar.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsnQr_LdBhwXg6Bipsn4McQHrEmLfwyBFO6BcqI_qoAAOAaVUQTOZ1R3pgqs_pgcvrOv2g8qksSByLXw0LsNB91Qz_-1vSbqfKNHgm4wLiZo9gP4gmy8OShvGvuTHT1DWcx-eJcbCweTyyUE3mPcopqBsQHVeiXBtWLLVO_3LTWwjG5IDLGR3oimguvw/w400-h224/worker%20protests%20in%20Qatar.jpeg" width="400" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-family: times; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span>According to Steve Cockburn, Amnesty International’s head of economic and social justice, “The continued debate around the number of workers who have died in the preparation of the World Cup exposes the stark reality that so many bereaved families are still waiting for truth and justice. Over the last decade, thousands of workers have returned home in coffins, with no explanation given to their loved ones.” </span></span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/nov/29/qatar-official-says-400-500-migrant-workers-died-on-world-cup-projects" style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span style="font-family: times;">Qatar official says ‘400-500’ migrant workers died on World Cup projects</span></a></span></p><p><i><span style="font-size: large;">The Role of FIFA in World Cup awards</span></i></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">FIFA has made huge profits from the 2022 World Cup. However, these profits were not only made at the expenses fo the health and lives of low paid workers, who were paid as low as $10/hr and labored under abysmal working conditions. It was only after an international outcry and pressure on FIFA, that working conditions were marginally improved by the Qatari regime. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2022/11/20/fifa-revenue-hits-7-5b-for-current-world-cup-period#:~:text=FIFA%20earns%20record%20%247.5bn%20revenue%20for%20Qatar%20World%20Cup&text=Qatar%20World%20Cup%202022">FIFA earns record $7.5bn revenue for Qatar World Cup</a></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">In an effort to placate the Qatari regime, FIFA outlawed armbands celebrating LGBTQ+ rights. Indeed, fans who wore such armbands, or any other clothing which indicated support for the LGBTQ+ community, were forced to remove and dispose of the item deemed unacceptable to the regime. There was no tolerance evident at the 2022 World Cup nor was free speech allowed. These failures are FIFA's responsibility.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNQ4IxmbxpeIbT4vvY0mNXSJi3una-PKrWnCp8OPmlCQxgON65LH30X4LjG7ZHx1YcJQKF9KZy1Tj269e4bAzPdwX86u0TxRlS9QUxUCrP-6R0Sy3gYg1wUZXdaqlNdiCcuVecHv5YbAA4q6AbAgbqxkucpz5x3KBk2Xvv1s7ly6-znqBoauxBWK-yFg/s300/Red%20card%20for%20FIFA%202022.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNQ4IxmbxpeIbT4vvY0mNXSJi3una-PKrWnCp8OPmlCQxgON65LH30X4LjG7ZHx1YcJQKF9KZy1Tj269e4bAzPdwX86u0TxRlS9QUxUCrP-6R0Sy3gYg1wUZXdaqlNdiCcuVecHv5YbAA4q6AbAgbqxkucpz5x3KBk2Xvv1s7ly6-znqBoauxBWK-yFg/w400-h224/Red%20card%20for%20FIFA%202022.jpeg" width="400" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><i><span style="font-size: large;">The need for a new institutional order for hosting the World Cup</span></i></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">There is already talk that Saudi Arabia would like to host the 2030 World Cup. The kingdom's ruler, Prime Minister Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), ordered the killing and dismemberment of Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent Saudi journalist who worked for the <i>Washington Post </i>and also held American citizenship. To award Saudi Arabia the right to host. the 2030 World Cup when MBS has faced no consequences for Khashoggi's murder would be obscene.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">The European Union, the United States and other democratic countries should ban together and notify FIFA that their national teams will boycott all future World Cups held in nation-states controlled by authoritarian rulers who suppress democratic freedoms and engage in human rights abuses.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Before the 2022 World Cup recedes from the mass media and global consciousness, new rules should be hammered out with FIFA to make sure that the Qatar model is never used again. Th World Cup must always be an event that all countries can be proud of, including the citizens of authoritarian dictatorships.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2pZUzuVJNc_VO-kI3JYrSnOQoHtzuZ8h1i1fKDHWTFrf3jiRuQe7EfSo_pZCMAOBVGKVCmgi7fEKYY8AgLC921IS3__F9ysAEwfQupDDmaLg79WZm_0vANpz-KtXwZysurpWcVYfUhnT_-1ZtckkpFOa9lHB_rgHxAxnKj40lfZKJNeSmMnQGEP3vcA/s1300/Mahsa%20Amini%20World%20Cup%202022%20ap22329355079674_custom-6291ee1d1fa4d2bdea75216bb59cc66d8b38658f-s1300-c85.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="865" data-original-width="1300" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2pZUzuVJNc_VO-kI3JYrSnOQoHtzuZ8h1i1fKDHWTFrf3jiRuQe7EfSo_pZCMAOBVGKVCmgi7fEKYY8AgLC921IS3__F9ysAEwfQupDDmaLg79WZm_0vANpz-KtXwZysurpWcVYfUhnT_-1ZtckkpFOa9lHB_rgHxAxnKj40lfZKJNeSmMnQGEP3vcA/w400-h266/Mahsa%20Amini%20World%20Cup%202022%20ap22329355079674_custom-6291ee1d1fa4d2bdea75216bb59cc66d8b38658f-s1300-c85.webp" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></p>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-57533665260521551912022-10-30T17:39:00.065-04:002022-10-31T11:03:14.826-04:00Saudi Arabia under Muhammad Bin Salman's Regime is No Longer a US Ally: The Need for a New American Foreign Policy in the Gulf<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLnuFiJvb4yBWIZ3uekD7G74hUDZXXQHno3H8Cm0uItktlpxgypMri_oZFd6_QIPlpP2PBQczr4WkMLHfigAiwZfOPpp-_e7BGHdHOhK5luTpyshRTUBAyiYuU6FqqACB7UwCW-esFZummBQvaSSUf2cUe9i6A1MCKHRzrVSOcDRPB6u3ErhRO4ZpiHA/s1000/JPEG%20MBS%20and%20Putin%20FP%20Nov%202018.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="1000" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLnuFiJvb4yBWIZ3uekD7G74hUDZXXQHno3H8Cm0uItktlpxgypMri_oZFd6_QIPlpP2PBQczr4WkMLHfigAiwZfOPpp-_e7BGHdHOhK5luTpyshRTUBAyiYuU6FqqACB7UwCW-esFZummBQvaSSUf2cUe9i6A1MCKHRzrVSOcDRPB6u3ErhRO4ZpiHA/w400-h266/JPEG%20MBS%20and%20Putin%20FP%20Nov%202018.webp" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">MBS and Putin at G20 Summit, November 2018</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Why is United States foreign policy in the Gulf no longer relevant given the region's current political climate? What has changed that requires the United States to adopt a new foreign policy approach? How should the US confront Saudi Arabia, one of the two major powers in the Gulf? <p></p><p>United States foreign policy in the Gulf region is facing a crisis. The two culprits are Saudi Arabia and Iran. While I will write about Iran in my next post, this post focuses on the rule of Saudi Prime Minister and Crown Prince, Muhammad bin Salman (MBS). He has turned Saudi Arabia from a ally (or perhaps a better characterization is frenemy) to a state whose policies contradict American interests and those of the Western community.</p><p>After FDR met with King Abd al-Aziz al-Sa'ud aboard the USS Quincy in the Great Bitter Lake south of the Suez Canal in February1945, he declared that Saudi oil was critical to American national interests. Since that meeting, the United States and the Sa'ud family have established a tacit bargain. Saudi Arabia would produce sufficient oil to meet the demands of the US and its Western allies and, through its market dominance, maintain price levels which would not constrainWestern economic growth. In return, the US would provide for the Kingdom's defense, and Saudi royals and businessmen would benefit from investing in the US economy. <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/1627196/saudi-arabia">What happened when Saudi King Abdul Aziz met US President Roosevelt</a></p><p>Moving to the present, what is often overlooked is the "soft coup" which has taken place in Saudi Arabia. In 2015, MBS became Minister of Defense. Gradually, he convinced his father, King Salman, to transfer the everyday running of the kingdom to him. MBS has used that power to consolidate his power by upending the structure of the traditional Saudi political elite. </p><p>Having imprisoned a large number of Saudi princes on charges of corruption in Riyadh's Ritz-Carlton Hotel in November, 2018, he forced them to turn over large amounts of their wealth. His subsequent behavior, such as intensifying the bombing campaign in Yemen in the war against Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, has led to widespread civilian casualties, and created what the United Nations has characterized as one of the world's worst humanitarian disasters. </p><p>As Crown Prince, and now Prime Minister, MBS has demonstrated a frequent resort to violence. MBS' treatment of the captive princes at the Ritz-Carlton, e.g., Prince Waleed ibn Talal al-Sa'ud, was brutal, e.g., severe beatings and hanging them by their wrists or upside down. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/19/saudi-accounts-emerge-of-ritz-carlton-night-of-the-beating">'Night of the beating': details emerge of Riyadh Ritz-Carlton purge</a></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSfeWN8xpK0Uk2E_3TDBnKPYxOylHbZG0RjUdSAs_Ymbd84QK4dgE_VUcjrRNcqEtafk3CrnQG_45RHwsdqCdUmlmAJLHPNFk4ReHIZmb6lyPwPyQb2i7VApESyIf41aOmvleTR5rQyEH-Iuf0mh1tzqZY3h2e6TNjk03YmPvIXzC2Hvq9AuZ24t7yUA/s225/JPEG%20Prince%20Alwaleed%20Bin%20Talal%20Alsaud.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="225" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSfeWN8xpK0Uk2E_3TDBnKPYxOylHbZG0RjUdSAs_Ymbd84QK4dgE_VUcjrRNcqEtafk3CrnQG_45RHwsdqCdUmlmAJLHPNFk4ReHIZmb6lyPwPyQb2i7VApESyIf41aOmvleTR5rQyEH-Iuf0mh1tzqZY3h2e6TNjk03YmPvIXzC2Hvq9AuZ24t7yUA/w400-h400/JPEG%20Prince%20Alwaleed%20Bin%20Talal%20Alsaud.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Saudi prince, al-Waleed ibn Talal al-Sa'ud</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>The October 2018 murder of Saudi national and Washington Post reporter, Jamal Khashoggi, in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, after which his body was dismembered, has been widely condemned as a particularly shocking example of MBS' extensive human rights abuses. Despite American intelligence agencies having determined that MBS ordered Khashoggi's assassination, the Saudi leader has yet to face any consequences for the murder. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/cia-concludes-saudi-crown-prince-ordered-jamal-khashoggis-assassination/2018/11/16/98c89fe6-e9b2-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html">CIA concludes Saudi crown prince ordered Jamal Khashoggi’s assassination</a></p><p>A few days day before former British prime minister Boris Johnson visited Saudi Arabia this past March, MBS ordered the execution of 81 prisoners, the largest such execution in the kingdom's history. Three weeks before that, MBS had given an interview to foreign journalists indicating that he was in the process of reforming the Saudi criminal code, and reducing the crimes subject to capital punishment, especially for youth. <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/03/15/saudi-arabia-mass-execution-81-men#:~:text=(Beirut)%20%E2%80%93%20Saudi%20authorities',Human%20Rights%20Watch%20said%20today.">Saudi Arabia: Mass Execution of 81 Men Rampant Abuses in Criminal Justice System Make Fair Trials Highly Implausible</a></p><p>In terms of Saudi foreign policy, MBS' most egregious behavior is his alliance with Russia in OPEC+. His recent decision to cut Saudi oil production not only raised the price of gasoline, but undermines the ability of Democratic Party candidates to complete in the soon to held US midterm elections, among the most consequential in the country's history. After Joe Biden's July visit to Riyadh where oil process were a central concern, MBS' decision to cut production just before the American mid-term elections is a slap in the face not just to the Biden administration but the United States as well.</p><p>MBS' decision also has had a global effect by increasing gasoline prices worldwide. It will no doubt be part of the effort by right wing populists in the European Union to try and undermine military and humanitarian support for Ukraine given high inflation. Thus, MBS has not only helped Vladimir Putin continue his brutal, unprovoked war in Ukraine by raising oil prices, but also made it more difficult for those who support Ukraine to continue that support.<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/24/world/middleeast/saudi-davos-in-desert.html?searchResultPosition=4">U.S. Executives Are Flocking to Saudi Davos in the Desert</a></p><p>On. another front, MBS is developing ties with large US banks and corporations as see in the current investment conference being held in Riyadh. As the New York Times noted, this conference defines the current transactional approach to US foreign policy which was promoted by the Trump administration. American investors such as former Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, Trump son-in-law, Jared Kushner, JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Diamond, and countless oil executives are being recruited by MBS. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/28/world/middleeast/saudi-us-investment-forum.html?searchResultPosition=1">Saudis Find More Sympathetic American Ears at Business Forum</a></p><p>MBS' end goal is to develop a powerful group of US corporate executives - an American power elite - which he can use to lobby members of Congress and thereby make an end run around the Biden administration, and future administrations, who seek to curtail his decision-making in using oil as a political weapon. To further insure the loyalty of this power elite, MBS is rewarding them - as he already had done with Mnuchin and Kushner - with large sums of investment capital from the kingdom's sovereign wealth fund, including joint partnerships in real estate and the tourist industry under development as part of the Crown Prince's Vision 2030. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/28/salem-almuzaini-torture-saudi-arabia-mbs/">A Saudi official’s harrowing account of torture reveals the regime’s brutality</a></p><p>While there has been no shortage of Saudi lobbying during prior US administrations, MBS' gambit represents a new and much more ambitious effort to mobilize support for him personally in the US. By developing luxurious tourist hotels and resorts designed for the ultra-rich, MBS seeks to attract a clientele which will fit his emerging foreign policy which seeks to become much less beholden to the United States and the Western countries who disapprove of his human rights abuses which they condemn.</p><p>What policies can the United States and the West adopt to counter MBS' support of the rogue Putin regime and his openings to China which is currently the main purchaser of Saudi oil exports? One of the key cards in the West's hands is arms supplies. Many human rights activists have been calling for years for reducing, if not ending, arms sales to Saudi Arabia.</p><p>The options available to Saudi Arabia for replacing American with other imported arms are limited. The Ukraine war has demonstrated the poor quality of Russian arms. China, on the other hand, may be interested in providing the kingdom with arms. However, the US supplies not only arms, but significant intelligence assistance to Saudi Arabia. Loss of arms transfers and intelligence sharing would harm Saudi Arabia more than the United States.</p><p>What is the possibility of a possible shift of Saudi Arabia to dependence on China, militarily and economically? First, the image of China as a growing super power has been seriously eroded by a number of crises and challenges, including the Covid pandemic, the aging of the Chinese population, the reduced interest of Western forms in investing in China, the environmental threats China faces and, most of all, the negative impact of President Xi Jinping's authoritarian rule. </p>All these developments, compared to the strong US dollar, and superiority in technological innovation, would make Saudi and Gulf Arab elites think twice about shifting the Gulf region's dependence from the West to Xi's China. Xi's confirmation for an unprecedented third term as the Chinese Communist Party's Secretary General led to a sharp decline in the Hong Kong stock exchange. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/xi-jinpings-third-term-gets-markets-thumbs-down-2022-10-24/">Breakingviews: Xi Jinping’s third term gets markets thumbs-down</a><div><p>Increasingly, Chinese private enterprise has been severely restricted because Xi views powerful private entrepreneurs as a threat to his rule. That those entrepreneurs who have acquired great wealth over the past decade, and have no recourse to legal protections of their property rights, will also make Saudi and Gulf Arabs think twice about military dependence on China. Because the Saudi and Arab Gulf model has favored private capital, and will need to continue to assure Western corporations that their investments are secure, developing closer military ties with China would undermine trust in the Saudi and Arab Gulf business climate.</p><p>China's close relations with Iran should also raise red flags in the kingdom and among the other Arab Gulf states. China purchases significant amounts of oil from Iran, thereby allowing the Tehran regime to mitigate the international sanctions which it currently faces. If a crisis arises, would China favor Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states or would it favor Iran? Such ambiguity is another factor undermining a move to replace Western arms with those from China. <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/25-year-iran-china-agreement-endangering-2500-years-heritage">The 25-year Iran-China agreement, endangering 2,500 years of heritage</a></p><p>Cultural factors also impact a possible shift to dependence on China for arms. Few Saudis and Gulf Arabs speak Chinese. There is strong preference among political and economic elites for Western culture which is evident in the types of tourist attractions MBS is developing to lure more Western, not Chinese, businessmen and potential investors to the kingdom. As MBS seeks to use his huge sovereign wealth fund to bribe Western investors and celebrities (think also of his LIV golf initiative which competes with the PGA), his efforts to create a powerful lobbying force in the US run counter to developing closer military ties with China. </p><p>What should the Biden administration respond to MBS' decision-making and behavior to date? How should it confront his working against US national interests, especially supporting Putin's brutal war in Ukraine which threatens world peace and global food supplies, and his ongoing flagrant human rights abuses?</p><p>First, the United States should cut off arms transfers to the MBS regime. Second, it should encourage its European Union and NATO partners to do the same. Third, it should withdraw the small contingent of US troops in Saudi Arabia. Fourth, it should seriously downgrade intelligence sharing and technical support for weapons already sold to the MBS regime. </p><p>Fifth, the US State Department should be much more public in its criticisms of the inequities of the Saudi legal system and the persecution of its Shi'a citizens, Saudi activists and Saudi women's rights supporters. A good place to begin would be to condemn the lashings and excessive prison sentences meted out for those posting critical comments of MBS' regime on social media outlets or blogs. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/18/saudi-arabia-us-citizen-prison-critical-tweets-regime">Saudi Arabia sentences US citizen to 16 years over tweets critical of regime</a></p><p>Sixth, the Biden administration should conduct an active behind-the scenes campaign to dissuade US corporations which are considering investing in Saudi Arabia from doing so. The implicit question of such an intervention should be the following: Would your corporation's shareholder agree with investing its funds in a country run by a repressive dictator who kills and executes its citizens at will and supports Putin's unprovoked and destabilizing war in Ukraine? <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/12/saudi-arabia-10-year-travel-ban-for-freed-blogger-raif-badawi">Saudi Arabia: 10-year travel ban for freed blogger Raif Badawi</a></p><p>Finally, the Biden administration should terminate official cultural exchanges with MBS' regime. Instead, it should offer grants to legitimate Saudi human rights and women's rights organizations, whether they operate inside or outside the kingdom.</p><p>Of course, the best way to curtail MBS's authoritarian ambitions and repressive actions is to speed up the transition from fossil fuels to wind and solar energy, and hydrogen to replace natural gas (as Germany has begun to do). The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act should be used to put thousands of new EVs on the road and dramatically increase EV charging capacity. Even though difficult, the US should try and improve its refinery capacity so as to reduce its dependence on imported oil. Perhaps a cooperative venture with Canada might overcome some of the current hurdles in refining gasoline in the United States. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-13/high-gas-prices-reflect-decline-in-us-refining-capacity#:~:text=Refining%20now%20accounts%20for%2026,the%20US%20Energy%20Information%20Administration.">The Real Reason Gas Is So Expensive? The US Needs More Refineries</a></p><p>The bottom line is that MBS will be ruling Saudi Arabia for the foreseeable future. It is not in the United States' interest to continue to rely on a brash, narcissistic and unpredictable dictator. The sooner the Biden administration charts a new foreign policy towards the MBS regime, the sooner it can extract itself from the road to failed expectations and outcomes. </p><p><br /></p><p> </p></div>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-34240491884875297482022-09-29T21:55:00.005-04:002022-12-06T13:28:28.557-05:00"Women, Life, Freedom": Could a hijab dispute topple the Islamic Republic of Iran?<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyjKodBXwfUysgVFeNHU_glI-gjOGXLN9dunarC_LKcVxHooQVeGtKuTcV3WBcBQrP-JHo4eXph9YmmhE4mB7V_0jecAQZOEp1sAfBUIb-Ic4HfV7B8Fr9FG7oEM96jdUL3BN7LI6jXH-p9N9fBQDebMEiHYTBG4VaYFKGKy8Jw0PR807oA9XCLzVoaw/s284/JPEG%20Mahsa%20Amini.92922.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="177" data-original-width="284" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyjKodBXwfUysgVFeNHU_glI-gjOGXLN9dunarC_LKcVxHooQVeGtKuTcV3WBcBQrP-JHo4eXph9YmmhE4mB7V_0jecAQZOEp1sAfBUIb-Ic4HfV7B8Fr9FG7oEM96jdUL3BN7LI6jXH-p9N9fBQDebMEiHYTBG4VaYFKGKy8Jw0PR807oA9XCLzVoaw/w400-h249/JPEG%20Mahsa%20Amini.92922.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mahsa Amini</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Mahsa Amini was an Iranian Kurdish woman who was visiting Tehran with her brother for the first time. Either she wasn't wearing a hijab in Tehran or her hijab revealed some of her hair. Whatever the case, Amini was stopped by Iran's hated "morality police" and arrested for transgressing Iran's female dress code. On the way to prison, she was tortured. Three days later she was dead. Apparently beaten around the head by the police, she died while in custody or at the hospital to which she was later taken.</p><p>Amini's death has caused outrage throughout Iran. Quickly, demonstration began in Saqqez, Amini's home town in Iran's northwest region. The region is home to Iran's Kurds who number 10 million and constitute 10% of the population. However, protests then spread to all Iran's cities and all Iran's 31 provinces. While women were among the first protestors, men from all age groups began to join them <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-protests-feature-smaller-gatherings-rooftop-chanting-as-crackdown-intensifies-11664478433">Iran Protests Feature Smaller Gatherings, Rooftop Chanting as Crackdown Intensifies</a></p><p>The ongoing protests in Iran are notable for several region. First, the Kurds have been neglected by the central government for decades and Kurds have been viewed as second-class citizens. Little investment has been directed towards the northwest where roads are in poor condition and schools and hospitals receive little aid. That the death of a Kurdish citizen has stirred demonstrations through Iran indicates that eth nic lines have been crossed with Amini;s death.</p><p>Second, the demonstrations reflects generational anger. Young people have no personal ties to the revolution of 1978-1979. Those who did participate are now in their 70s. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is 83 and has been ruling Iran since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini died in 1989. Among the 80% of Iran's population under the age of 40, there is little hope in the future. This demographic doesn't identity with sclerotic clerical leadership in Tehran. </p><p>Third, the rejection of the current regime is especially acute among women. Khamenei and his repressive elite have done all they can to prevent women from entering the public sphere. Despite these impediments, many women in Iran are highly educated and have university degrees. As amy have pointed out, the protests against the regime for Mahsa Amini's death are in fact an uprising led by Iranian women. </p><p>Thus, the protests are in effect a women's revolution. Women have not been attributed much agency among analysts of Middle East politics. That they would assume such a central role in what seems to be one of the greatest challenges faced by the Tehran regime since it consolidate power after 1979 behooves us all to take women more seriously as agents of change.</p><p>Some of the most effective aspects of women's protests have been the creation of bonfires in which women throw their hijabs, expressing their rejection of not only the regime oppressive dress code and enforcers, the "morality police," but a repression of the core patriarchal nature of Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militia. </p><p>The rejection of patriarchy is also evident in the many women who have cut their hair and called on their sisters in other countries to do the same. Through this tactic, Iranian women have internationalized the protests. The more women in countries around the world who cut their hair, the greater the degree to which the Iranian women's uprising calls attention to the oppression they face.</p><p>The recently elected president, Ebrahim Raisi, is a hardliner who has littl or no understanding of the generational divide which Iran is facing. Rather than use Iran's oil wealth to invest in education, health care, job training, Raisi and his clique which controls the IRGC persist in their efforts to prop up the spent al-Asad regime in Syria and support. the Hizballah militia in Lebanon and its counterpart in Iraq, the Popular Mobilization (al-Hashad al-Sha'bi).</p><p>Regime resources continue to be devoted to its nuclear energy program, which could ultimately allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, and to establishing a ballistic missile force which could deliver such weapons. Raisi seems not to realize that the younger generation rejects his repressive policies at home and the regime's reckless foreign policy.</p><p>At the same time, Raisi seeks to force women to forgo wearing brightly colored hijabs and clothing. This attempt to force Iran to return to the even more repressive years of Ayatollah Khomeini reminds Iranians that Raisi gained his reputation as the hanging judge when he presided over sham trials in which thousands of dissidents were sent to the gallows. <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/brief-history-butcher-tehran-opinion-1742127">A Brief History of the 'Butcher of Tehran'</a>.</p><p>State security forces can only kill so many demonstrators. And we should remember what happened when the Shah ordered his forces to shoot demonstrators. Once the Shah reduced spending on urban construction to reduce inflation, unemployment rose as the economy weakened. Many workers began demonstrations which their sympathizers in the security forces refused to suppress. Instead of shooting the protestors, they laid down their guns and refused orders to kill the protestors.</p><p>Is Iran at such a moment now? Will women be shot and killed for removing their hijabs and cutting their hair? Such repression will further undermine sympathy for the regime which is already facing the imminent demise of the aging and ill Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and the succession struggle which will follow.</p><p>The hijab and Iran's dress code for women has attained the status of a symbol of oppression. The current demonstrations by young Iranian women and their millions of supporters from all sectors of society show that the genie is out of the bottle. They may bring down the regime but Raisi and his clerical elite will have a hard time forcing it back in the bottle. A lengthy period of instability is in the offing in Iran </p>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-70733537519253058652022-08-23T21:21:00.019-04:002022-08-26T16:03:51.407-04:00Does the United States Really Misunderstand Iran آیا آمریکا واقعا ایران را اشتباه میفهمد؟<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyl0PiWfyWV68SSUiGsMLJTlNWDTCGfQ2THLjH56GSOpyknnJ9aPM8wgJ9aVY9Tw-HhYxUo64d_x3un_5_ITJgD_ErrgNUwtiwNvYftWZol0Aw2rRsOFprcbqq_Td2pM2Lfxl7jeFQsuPBLi6FFMIpRmkzT7u-B9M5JkU9RB3UTPLCXTHAOgdsOx6fnQ/s670/1646660485654266300.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="436" data-original-width="670" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyl0PiWfyWV68SSUiGsMLJTlNWDTCGfQ2THLjH56GSOpyknnJ9aPM8wgJ9aVY9Tw-HhYxUo64d_x3un_5_ITJgD_ErrgNUwtiwNvYftWZol0Aw2rRsOFprcbqq_Td2pM2Lfxl7jeFQsuPBLi6FFMIpRmkzT7u-B9M5JkU9RB3UTPLCXTHAOgdsOx6fnQ/w400-h276/1646660485654266300.webp" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>A recent Opinion article in the New York Times, "How the United States Misunderstand Iran," argues that the United States fails to comprehend the current political dynamics in the so-called Islamic Republic. Reading this piece by Karim Sadjadpour, it is not clear exactly what the author is trying to argue. Because the author's argument about comprehending your adversary is absolutely correct, what is the nature of current US-Iranian relations? </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/12/opinion/iran-america-nuclear-policy.html?searchResultPosition=1">How the United States Misunderstands Iran</a></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In this article, the reader never learns exactly what it is that the United States government fails to understand about Iran. The article largely focuses on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. However, surely the United States, or any power for that matter, needs to examine the Iranian regime beyond it main leader. For example, the recently elected president and hardliner, Ebrahim Raisi, is never mentioned, even though he wields considerable power.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In an article which alleges that the US misunderstands Iran, one assumes that the author would offer new American policy options commensurate with the analysis he suggests. Yet little is offered beyond the argument that sanctions, the main tool the US has used against Iran, have only a spotty record of success internationally.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Apart from Dr. Sadjadpour's excellent analysis of the manner in which Khamenei uses anti-Americanism to sustain his rule, we never learn why hardliners have recently come to dominate the regime, especially after a period of two decades in the 1990s and after when at least some moderate leaders occupied the office of the presidency, namely Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Does the rise of the hardliners reflect an actual weakening of the regime? While sanctions won't bring down the regime, they have clearly taken a toll on Iran's economy and promoted popular discontent with the regime. This is especially true because the populace is aware of the extensive corruption which pervades the regime and its praetorian guard, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">It is striking that, for Dr. Sadjadpour, history begins in 1979 with the victory of Iran's revolution which toppled the regime of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. However, the largest American blunder, and example of US misunderstanding of Iran par excellence, was the CIA's overthrow of Mohammed Mossadegh, the democratically elected prime minister of Iran, in 1953.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Mossadegh was guilty of the sin of wanting to help the citizens he represented enjoy a higher standard of living. To do this, he demanded the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company pay higher royalties per barrel beyond the pittance Iran received for the oil extracted from its wells. In the political instability which followed, the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, fled the country. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">For its part, Great Britain organized an international boycott of Iranian oil. Ultimately the CIA, and its agent, Kermit Roosevelt, Jr., mobilized Iran's army and religious clergy to support a coup d'etat which reinstated the young Shah to the Peacock Throne. After regaining power, the Shah enacted brutally repressive policies which marginalized much of Iran's population apart from a small, wealthy Westernized elite. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">One possibility for the US to open a powerful initiative would be to admit the mistake that it made in 1953 in overthrowing Mossadegh and restoring the Shah to power. In conjunction with this declaration, the US could call on Iran to release its large number of political prisoners, including the many dual nationals in its prisons. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">There would be no expectation that Tehran would agree to release political prisoners. Nevertheless, an apology for the events of the early 1950s when the US interfered in Iran's internal affairs would undercut the anti-American rhetoric which Dr. Sadjadpour shows is so central to the regime's legitimacy. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Another initiative which the author mentions but doesn't elaborate on is the possibility of the US developing economic ties with Iran. While excellent in the abstract, this policy would have no traction among Democrats and Republicans in the US unless Iran changes its behavior in at least two respects. First, it would need to commit to ending its uranium enriching program to assure that it does not acquire nuclear weapons, and, second, it would need to rein in its regional interference in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Conspicuously absent from Dr. Sadjadpour's analysis is the current negotiations of the US and the European Union with Iran to reinstate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) . After Donald Trump unilaterally abrogated the agreement in 2018, Iran increased its uranium enrichment program and has continued to develop ballistic missiles. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The prospects for the current JCPOA negotiations to be successful are dim at best. Iran has engaged in significant behavior beyond its borders intended to intimidate expatriate dissidents or even assassinate them. Its gloating over the stabbing of Salman Rushdie, and blaming the author and his supporters for the attack, was both despicable and certainly will not improve its standing in the international community. </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/23/opinion/iran-rushdie-attack.html" style="font-size: large;">Will Anyone Punish Iran for Its Murderous Behavior?</a></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The proof of the pudding is the eating. Iran's behavior points to an increasingly rogue state. The question at the end of the day is not, "Does the United States Misunderstand Iran," but rather, "Does Iran Misunderstand What It Means to Be a Responsible Member of the Global Order?" As long as Iran refuses to change its behavior, the US and the West should continue their policy of isolating it.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-57382373990014577262022-07-26T13:02:00.023-04:002022-07-27T13:40:11.861-04:00 أزمة المياه في العراق: هل يمكن لسد بخمة المساعدة فيحلها؟ Iraq’s Water Crisis: Could the Bakhma Dam Help Solve It <p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i>The New Middle East</i></span><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> is pleased to welcome Jabbar Jaafar, a strategic communications specialist, as co-author of this post , especially because he suggested the topic of the Bakhma Dam analyzed below</span></div><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="font-size: inherit; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjchkT73GLoDzt7_q6Ea3xHZNM7PXNq-kk4ZczRwiOhty3QUrxO5_s9x3lp5mzju6KxG_V6BziFF8qRn38sOgX4fwLMc8dvj_baqIiGenhRmJJU3dd2Aak4A4OjgFdP_HMbzFShfoWjG1kNHptOvIhcifs8ur-fPWY4du3D_m30w4Y_KTXfAYSyNv6c7w/s275/JPEG%20Bakhma%20Dam%201.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjchkT73GLoDzt7_q6Ea3xHZNM7PXNq-kk4ZczRwiOhty3QUrxO5_s9x3lp5mzju6KxG_V6BziFF8qRn38sOgX4fwLMc8dvj_baqIiGenhRmJJU3dd2Aak4A4OjgFdP_HMbzFShfoWjG1kNHptOvIhcifs8ur-fPWY4du3D_m30w4Y_KTXfAYSyNv6c7w/w400-h266/JPEG%20Bakhma%20Dam%201.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Initial Construction on the Bakhma Dam</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: medium;">As authoritarian rulers in the Middle East continue to repress dissent and corrupt elites steal from the public purse, little is being done to address the region’s climate crisis. With widespread drought, extreme heat, desertification, and dust storms afflicting the region, the ability to access water resources looms ever larger. Iraq is one of the MENA region countries facing the most severe water resources problem. What can be done to mitigate this problem?<o:p> </o:p></span></span><div><span style="color: #212529; font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Historically, Iraq has been blessed with waters from its two rivers, the Tigris and the Euphrates, which gave it its ancient name, Mesopotamia – the land between the two rivers – as well as its appellation as the Fertile Crescent. Today, Iraq derives 98% of its water from the Tigris and Euphrates, and their tributaries.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>However, their ability to supply Iraq with its necessary water is severely threatened.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iraq has suffered a severe drought since 2007.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Water shortages have been exacerbated by Turkey’s building dams on the Upper Euphrates River and Iran building dams on the Zab and other rivers which feed into the Tigris.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Already tribes in southern Iraq have engaged in conflict over access to water and Iraq’s southern provinces have accused the northern provinces of taking more water from the Tigris and Euphrates beyond what they are officially allocated. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Clearly, water shortages suggest a rise in domestic and international conflict if not seriously confronted.<o:p> Even more ominous, the lack of water may make certain areas of Iraq uninhabitable in the future. With a 34 mile coastline, Iraq cannot hope to receive its water supply by desalination, using the Persian (arab) Gulf.</o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">However, one area of possible water resources has yet to receive adequate attention. Iraq’s three northern provinces in the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) have ample sources of water. Although the KRG has also been adversely affected by drought conditions, e.g., a substantial number of its 10,000 wells have run dry over the past decade, it is blessed with considerable water.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The high mountains in the KRG produce significant water runoff each spring.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>This runoff has yet to be captured and used in a more efficient manner.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">To more efficiently use the water resources in Iraq's Kurdish region, this post discusses the Bakhma (Behme) Dam project near Erbil in the Duhok region.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>While the dam is one of the largest infrastructure projects ever conceived for Iraq, it has yet to be completed. Were the dam constructed, it could provide a substantial amount of water,and hydropower, which could help address Iraq’s water and electricity shortage needs.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iraq’s current rulers, both Arab and Kurdish, they have shown little interest in improving the lives of the Iraqi people. Their behavior has been characterized by extensive corruption and does not indicate a concern to develop Iraq and bring prosperity to their constituents. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>An examination of their achievements over the last 20 years shows no tangible results in contributing to infrastructure development. For example, Iraq's southern city of Basra still lacks adequate electricity and potable water. Unfortunately, </span><span color="inherit" style="background-color: transparent; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">Iraq’s development has been lacking in all areas, including the water sector, which has been deliberately neglected with no dams or other water reservoirs having been built. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><o:p style="background-color: transparent; color: inherit; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><i><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Historical perspective<o:p> </o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In many respects, Iraq’s ancient rulers were more forward looking than the current political elite in maintaining the country’s water supply. </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">During Emperor Hammurabi’s reign, Babylonia, witnessed his care in maintaining and expanding irrigation networks by constructing new canals and dams. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>By 1760 BCE, when Hammurabi established control over all of Mesopotamia, and especially the city-states of Sumeria, he restored the irrigation canals there to their best condition and brought water back to areas of the south which had previously deprived of it.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hammurabi’s unification of the entire south and the lands north of Babylon allowed him to construct lengthy canals to the various cities of the empire. These canal, which he named, "Hammurabi-is-the-abundance-of-the-people," ran to Nippur, Isin, Uruk, Larsa, Ur, and Eridu, and covered a stretch of land covering 160 kilometers. These irrigation works brought economic development and increased the wealth of the population to unprecedented levels.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><i><span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The idea of the Bakhma Dam<o:p> </o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iraq’s Hashimite monarchy has often been vilified, given its repression of Iraq’s nationalist movement from 1921 until its overthrow in 1958 and lack of addressing the needs of the poor.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>In the area of water resources, however, the monarchy implemented a number of projects, the most important of which was the Wadi Thathar Flood Control Project between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers north of Baghdad. The project, which began in 1952, and was completed in 1956, was designed to divert waters from the spring floods into Lake Tharthar to prevent flooding in Baghdad and other Iraqi towns and villages and to increase water for irrigation.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuYT50bENWRxmDZK-fWb7Z9FGmqWygmhWgesekj5xVWkqytWUfm9f76LGpjBvn7uPik3QvUMbRJ3eI-Ye7Lc8yiWn2j1EwDjUmvtHq9nHO0Pg-_sE7CK5cgOW7sQHxk5CnDJot467Ot0rHFfZAEACpUy490UzplFPmCE-9oVK-IZy5_zRqjEXnMIIzjQ/s700/JPEG%20Tharthar%20restoration%20revives%20Anbar%20agriculture.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="496" data-original-width="700" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuYT50bENWRxmDZK-fWb7Z9FGmqWygmhWgesekj5xVWkqytWUfm9f76LGpjBvn7uPik3QvUMbRJ3eI-Ye7Lc8yiWn2j1EwDjUmvtHq9nHO0Pg-_sE7CK5cgOW7sQHxk5CnDJot467Ot0rHFfZAEACpUy490UzplFPmCE-9oVK-IZy5_zRqjEXnMIIzjQ/w400-h284/JPEG%20Tharthar%20restoration%20revives%20Anbar%20agriculture.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Wadi Tharthar Flood Prevention Project</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="border: 0px; color: #212529; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">The idea of the Bakhma Dam in Dohuk Governorate dates back 90 years when an American journalist published an article in the </span><i style="background-color: transparent; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">al-Awqat al-Baghdadia</i><span style="background-color: transparent; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> newspaper (August 18, 1932) suggesting using Iraq’s rivers to generate electric power and equip industrial plants.</span><span color="inherit" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">The article proposed and the constructing an 800-foot-high dam whose turbines would be able to generate 1500 kilowatts of electricity. </span><o:p style="background-color: transparent; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </o:p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">I<span style="font-size: medium;">n 1937, a British advisory council conducted the first geological study of the project area in Iraqi Kurdistan.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Experts issued a report on its explorations and recommended the construction of a high dam at a site near the village of Bakhma at the entrance to the Klei Bekhmael Gorge.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>In 1939, British geologists indicated the most suitable site of a dam would be at the entrance to the gorge, </span></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">the product of the Zab River, the largest river within Iraqi Kurdistan, with a watershed extending well into southern Turkey and with many smaller tributaries, such as the Rawanduz River.</span><span color="inherit" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Finally, in 1941, a report developed by a British irrigation engineer proposed constructing a dam at the height of 470 meters high, with capacity storage of about 1.25 billion cubic meters of water.</span><o:p style="font-size: inherit;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">After World War 2, the Hashimite monarchy formed by the Supreme Council for the Study of Water Resources and Development in Iraq to conduct geological surveys and produce academic studies between 1946 and 1949. The goal was to obtain greater technical information about the Bakhma Dam site and its facilities.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The dam’s key objective was to control the waters of the Upper Zab River and reduce the floods threatening Baghdad.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>In 1950, the Supreme Council approved a study for constructing a high dam in the Bekhmal Gorge for flood control and using the dam as a strategic reservoir for irrigation and farming in fertile areas below the dam.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Bakhma Dam project is still considered one of the vast and promising infrastructure projects designed to address Iraq's water shortage. The dam is located near the district of Aqrah in the Behdinan region of the KRG and 45 miles from its capital, Erbil. It is considered the most expensive of Iraq's dams, and it faces many technical obstacles. Cost estimates indicate that it would require $7 billion to complete.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>In light of Iraq’s current revenues from oil sales, this amount does not seem prohibitive, especially if foreign funding, e.g., from the United State and EU, could cover part of the dam’s construction costs.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="281" data-original-width="375" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha2GFDZHufJckH4OJxoKEhZeOPt4jj0GVajlEJZJDda1XKKjJNi2e-JXQRDs-ouoAgodPVVMcrs7hYzQ8EQv_dpu1R7yu4M9pdl5CtZ9NLlujgb1jxOQkQCHA_JF8Ttg14hsHJ5MZEQUVt2Xt7tZ_ceocGw6F6CO4VhL4osxgx5tZrlTPqhNuEVMq3fQ/w400-h300/JPEG%20Bekhma_Tunnel.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Bakhma Dam water diversion tunnel</td></tr></tbody></table><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha2GFDZHufJckH4OJxoKEhZeOPt4jj0GVajlEJZJDda1XKKjJNi2e-JXQRDs-ouoAgodPVVMcrs7hYzQ8EQv_dpu1R7yu4M9pdl5CtZ9NLlujgb1jxOQkQCHA_JF8Ttg14hsHJ5MZEQUVt2Xt7tZ_ceocGw6F6CO4VhL4osxgx5tZrlTPqhNuEVMq3fQ/s375/JPEG%20Bekhma_Tunnel.jpeg"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></a></div><div><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">As international political and economic influence shifted away from Great Britain after WWII, the United States assumed a central role in Iraq’s development project.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>In the early 1950s, the Reconstruction Council referred the dam design to the Harza Engineering Company in Chicago, which conducted a study and issued its planning report in December 1952. </span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></div><div><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Bakhma Dam’s cost was calculated according to the amount of water being stored which is measured in billions of cubic meters. The Harza Company report, which indicated that the higher the dam, the lower the cost per billion cubic meters of storage, recommended that the most economical cost for the construction of the dam would be a height of 550 meters. <o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The company’s report estimated that the Bakhma Dam’s reservoir could hold 8.6 billion cubic meters of water which could irrigate 2 million plots of agricultural land. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Further it would increase the water supply of the Tigris River, reduce flooding in Baghdad, and generate 2-3 billion kilowatt-hours of electrical energy. <o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In 1975, given the high oil prices at the time, the Iraqi Ministry of Irrigation asked Harza to re-evaluate its proposal for the Bakhma Dam project. The company was asked to present several alternatives so the Ministry could choose the optimal proposal, according to Iraq's need for water for irrigation, agriculture, and electricity generation at the lowest cost. The company submitted its report in 1976, which offered indicated three alternative placements for the dam, with the confluence of the Rawanduz River with the Greater Zab tributary at the entrance to the gorge being chosen as the most suitable site.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In 1978, the Ministry of Irrigation requested seven foreign consulting companies from Japan, France, the United States, and communist bloc countries to submit offers and conduct detailed geological and hydrological examinations, preparing final designs and directing the implementation work of the dam. Studies to build the dam began in March 1979.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><i><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Bakhma Dam Description<o:p> </o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In 1987, the first phase of the Bakhma Dam’s construction was begun. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The dam’s height was to be 750 ft, its length 2000 ft, and it was to have a storage capacity of 17 cubic kilometers and surface area of 100 kilometers (39 square miles)—with a total </span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">estimated cost was about $1.5 billion.<o:p> </o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuoZmDFntxzToxY0wmUjltwsU1wRlbWne2VmB09qe2i9YQSIlsK2Sx6YXF0pEvmVpi4IKx16Lu2xIzNPnIggKOm5EQFfw0cGYfc2WohFlnJW0TJrO7cM92J4VOqjIWqkF2GGbuDn8Kg09kbULmVcQhL550LX-OPlGcnn_7V0Pt99Tzk5lRhB6lOsOLXQ/s292/JPEG%20Map%20pf%20Bakhma%20Dam.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="173" data-original-width="292" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuoZmDFntxzToxY0wmUjltwsU1wRlbWne2VmB09qe2i9YQSIlsK2Sx6YXF0pEvmVpi4IKx16Lu2xIzNPnIggKOm5EQFfw0cGYfc2WohFlnJW0TJrO7cM92J4VOqjIWqkF2GGbuDn8Kg09kbULmVcQhL550LX-OPlGcnn_7V0Pt99Tzk5lRhB6lOsOLXQ/w400-h237/JPEG%20Map%20pf%20Bakhma%20Dam.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Bakhma Dam Project and its Reservoir</td></tr></tbody></table><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">The objective in building the dam was to store water, irrigate the Erbil plains, produce hydroelectric power, and reduce floods that threaten Iraqi cities. Experts estimated that if the dam was built, it would be able to store 14,4 billion cubic meters of water. </span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">Thus, it would be the largest Iraqi dam in the volume of water reserves. </span><o:p style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </o:p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The contract to build the dam was awarded <span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #202122; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">to a consortium of Turkish-Yugoslavian firms, ENKA Hidrogradnja and Energoprojekt</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A colossal tunnel was built to drain the excess water. The diversion tunnel the size of car tunnels was dug into the mountain by the Turkish company ENKA, a company specializing in the field of engineering and power plants, which removed thousands of tons of rock. The Yugoslavian company, Hydrocravenia, helped build the chambers for the underground powerhouse and transformers.</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><i><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Work suspension<o:p> </o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Between 1987 and 1991, the two companies completed about 35% of the dam. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Construction was halted with the outbreak of the second Gulf War in 1990 after the Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait on August 2,</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">1990. The war was followed by the popular March 1991 uprising (<i>Intifadat Sha'ban</i>). As a result of this uprising, most Kurdistan region broke away from control of the central government. The equipment and machinery of the two companies were looted, so the Iraqi government was forced to compensate for the losses of the Turkish and Yugoslav companies at a cost of $175 million dollars.<o:p> </o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKFFIhxe8WMqrsNJ3hS3aiHUTys0A2_EtPLTLWgPQM9FVEPQnsoBRv-5bzNsIdy4LlYZUung2kMXjsrgt9gkSE6GqNMralzaOv9vLJLpRIEj5_APLJVpBfZu3FneD_wZg_YfvK7_f1ODV4z6ePHXGaXlueKjTf5e3p9n6nfzaVN51EC5Gtz3GFCY4H0g/s768/JPEG%20Bekhmal%20Gorge.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="768" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKFFIhxe8WMqrsNJ3hS3aiHUTys0A2_EtPLTLWgPQM9FVEPQnsoBRv-5bzNsIdy4LlYZUung2kMXjsrgt9gkSE6GqNMralzaOv9vLJLpRIEj5_APLJVpBfZu3FneD_wZg_YfvK7_f1ODV4z6ePHXGaXlueKjTf5e3p9n6nfzaVN51EC5Gtz3GFCY4H0g/w400-h300/JPEG%20Bekhmal%20Gorge.webp" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The Bekhmel Gorge</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">After Saddam's regime fell in 2003, efforts were made to complete the dam's construction. In 2005, several Iraqi technical and foreign advisory committees were organized to review the project. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>By this time, the dam's cost had risen to $3 billion dollars based on subsequent studies and designs. In 2007, the estimated amount rose to $5 billion dollars. Nevertheless, the Council of Ministers headed by Nuri al-Maliki agreed to allocate this amount and the Kurdish Regional Government expressed interest in the project. <o:p> </o:p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">However, the Bakhma Dam project did encounter some opposition. A Kurdish leader objected to the establishment of the dam because his clan resides in the region of Aqrah, east of the Great Zab River. Several villages, his tribe complained, would be flooded with the waters of the dam's lake, erasing the history and traces of those villages and the graves of the former prominent sheiks.</span><o:p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">On November 17, 2019, Mr. Kifah Mahmoud, an adviser to the Kurdish Democratic Party, claimed that "Bakhma dam was designed to separate (the) Soran (area) from Badinan (Bahdinan), in a malicious attempt to divide the partition by natural means.”<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>However, new construction designs were formulated so that the reservoir would not constitute a water barrier between different regions in Kurdistan.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><i><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The Politics of the Bakhma Dam</span><o:p style="font-size: inherit;"> </o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8VMtaIAXUqqFNUp8Dl5XNnBwB54oe3EJVVzYy5_TFNGw1mYAhRKTXoQJAmzuXO0a9P851s8Dvldqr_fPfVXwlGQdTflTn57bRwxtbhy47yGThColVzHV1U5xArD9rxw8tloxoG_sO6qMyeUrT2F3bGnO8KBnESMKMBuypRgtEBMUvLmZfF6FadXAEzA/s768/JPEG%20Area%20inundated%20by%20the%20Bakhma%20Dam.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="768" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8VMtaIAXUqqFNUp8Dl5XNnBwB54oe3EJVVzYy5_TFNGw1mYAhRKTXoQJAmzuXO0a9P851s8Dvldqr_fPfVXwlGQdTflTn57bRwxtbhy47yGThColVzHV1U5xArD9rxw8tloxoG_sO6qMyeUrT2F3bGnO8KBnESMKMBuypRgtEBMUvLmZfF6FadXAEzA/w400-h300/JPEG%20Area%20inundated%20by%20the%20Bakhma%20Dam.webp" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Bekhmel Gorge area inundated by Bakhma Dam</td></tr></tbody></table><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Bakhma Dam wasn’t completed after the toppling of Saddam due to a number of objections.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>In 2007, the Council of Ministers, led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Malik, agreed to fund the dam whose cost had now reached $7 billion. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>However, in 2008, the Federal Government decided not to pursue the dam project due to the drought affecting the country and fears it will reduce water supplies to the south of Iraq. Thus, once again, the Bakhma Dam project was put on hold.<o:p> </o:p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">Could the current water crisis change the calculus of the Baghdad and Erbil political elites and permit the dam project to finally move forward?</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: large; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">First, the KRG leadership is well aware is that the water crisis in the south can only produce political instability.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: large; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">In neighboring Syria, the severe drought along the Euphrates led to the Arab Spring uprisings there and subsequently helped the Islamic State recruit local farmers and youth.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: large; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">A destabilized Arab Iraq would present a major challenge to the landlocked KRG.</span><o:p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Second, the rise in oil prices makes it easier for the Federal Government in Baghdad to make concessions on the division of Iraq’s oil wealth.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>While the sharing of oil wealth with the KRG needs to be shielded from corruption (and in the south as well), e.g., designated for specific uses such as KRG government salaries, pensions, and infrastructure projects, greater flexibility on sharing Iraq’s oil wealth could incentivize the Kurdish political elite to allow the Bakhma Dam project to move forward.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Third, Iraq could use the ties it has recently developed with Saudi Arabia to raise funds from the kingdom and the GCC to invest in the KRG’s agrarian sector.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Much of the Kurdish region's agriculture was destroyed during Saddam’s Husayn’s brutal ANFAL Campaign of the later 1980s when over 150 Kurdish villages were razed to the ground.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> Currently, w</span>ith many KRG government employees returning to the agricultural sector as a result of sporadic salary payments, now would be the time to revive Kurdish agriculture. This could help assure the KRG and Iraq’s food security and lessen Iraq’s dependence on food imports. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">To assure that the Bakhma Dam project was resumed, it would be important for the United Nations and the European Union to serve as mediators between Baghdad and Erbil.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>These parties would be viewed as neutral arbiters who could hopefully encourage the two political elites to come together on promoting the dam which would serve both Kurds and Arabs.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">If neutral mediators could bring the Federal Government and KRG to develop a comprehensive national water policy, it might encourage Iraq to try and establish a regional water authority including Iraq, Iran and Syria.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The problem of access to water is only going to become worse as global warming increases.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>A water authority encompassing Iraq, Turkey and Iran could provide a model for the entire MENA region.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Finally, accommodation should be made for the estimated 20-40,000 Kurds whose villages would be destroyed by the Bakhma Dam’s construction and the heritage which would be lost to the dam’s large reservoir.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Drawing up efforts in Egypt to save precious heritage during the building of the Aswan High Dam in the 1960s, similar measures should be taken to assure that as much heritage as possible is saved for posterity.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p></div>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-80424956372370123002022-06-29T21:17:00.021-04:002022-07-03T22:34:31.302-04:00The Youth Social Entrepreneurship and Sustainable Development Project - Phase 2<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqG2TGp7eHlGW8EffoqwvBzM5Q8yLenllrftKwOuffUnKwcZwq527S8uDpXMHOpXK7NCr2heGVR8pJXfiVGEFf-wD9qf_TXxhBzQRHxhLHj6pOeq20Q1HAA_puxXkYZxc1wNy_74cEUc8tXWb4b292zH-VNbV-vPsyJGV5YWAyg98RFAsl8FvLjCc1fg/s1080/JPEG%20YSESD%2061722%20png_20220622_194015_0000.png"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1080" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqG2TGp7eHlGW8EffoqwvBzM5Q8yLenllrftKwOuffUnKwcZwq527S8uDpXMHOpXK7NCr2heGVR8pJXfiVGEFf-wD9qf_TXxhBzQRHxhLHj6pOeq20Q1HAA_puxXkYZxc1wNy_74cEUc8tXWb4b292zH-VNbV-vPsyJGV5YWAyg98RFAsl8FvLjCc1fg/w400-h394/JPEG%20YSESD%2061722%20png_20220622_194015_0000.png" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">An overview of current conditions in the world can produce many negative feelings.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The continued Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s brutal attack of Ukraine, food insecurity resulting from the halt in wheat and other critical agricultural products from Ukraine and Russia as a result of the war, the spread of autocratic regimes, global inflation resulting from the pandemic and Ukraine war and, of course, the existential threat posed by climate change and global warming, offer few areas of hope for the near future. <o:p> </o:p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">There is one bright spot which is the possibly of youth globally – the “generation in waiting” – to adopt new approaches to global problems which differ from the destructive policies of their elders.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>What can youth offer to provide a new spirit of hope in the future.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">In past posts, I have spoken about the power and promise of youth social entrepreneurship. Based on the belief that youth today constitute the only demographic which bring about meaningful social change, I worked with several colleagues to create the Youth, Social Entrepreneurship and Sustainable Development Project (YSESD).<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Now in its fourth year, the YSESD completed its first phase in December 2021. Supported by a grant from the Hollings Center for International Dialogue in Istanbul, the YSESD brought together a group of youth social entrepreneurs from Turkey, Iraq, and Pakistan.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Phase 1 of the YSESD focused on mentoring.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>It created cross-national teams of project participants who developed projects which could be implemented in the future.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">The response of these teams, which grouped youth social entrepreneurs from Turkey, Iraq and Pakistan, was extremely positive. The participants benefited from the ideas which came from different cultural contexts and reported that the synergy that developed during the project building was something they not experienced heretofore.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The YSESD’s progress in Phase 1 underscored the goal of building an international network of youth social entrepreneurs. <o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Beginning with our 3 “pilot” countries in Phase 1, youth social could share information on the project’s platform with other YSESD participants beyond their teams, and obtain mentorship in YSESD workshops from successful social entrepreneurs in the MENA region, Pakistan Europe and the United States.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">This spring, the YSESD began Phase 2 of the project.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Once again, the project is fortunate to have outstanding participants. This cohort not only includes youth social entrepreneurs from Turley, Iraq, and Pakistan, but also from Syria, Kuwait, Dubai, Palestine, and MENA region youth living in Europe.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Thus, the YSESD is widening its focus in the MENA region and in Pakistan.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> <span>Mentoring is a core component of Phase 2, which is providing instruction using lectures and instructional materials from the YCombinator Start-Up School.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span>During bi-weekly meetings, YSESD participants join breakout rooms where they receive suggestions and comments on their social entrepreneurial ventures.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span>As in Phase 1, an effort is made to link youth social entrepreneurs from different countries.</span><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">For example, during our last meeting this month, I worked with 2 youth social entrepreneurs from Turkey and another from Iraq.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The Turkish partners have developed a computer training venture which provides refugees and other educationally deprived youth in Turkey with computer skills training. The Iraqi youth social entrepreneur, and his partners in Iraq, have developed 7 schools in Iraq which offer primary and secondary school education.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Two of the schools serve youth in the poorest districts of Baghdad while the other 3 serve displaced youth in Iraq’s al-Anbar Province west of the Iraqi capital.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">The outcome of our mentoring session was the suggestion that the Turkish social entrepreneurs provide computer skills training to trainers in Iraq where schools provide limited education in this critical area.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The Iraqi social entrepreneur, and his partners, would reach out to an Italian NGO and USAID in Iraq to fund the project.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Thus, this initiative would link Turkish and Iraqi youth social entrepreneurs in a cross-national project from which both sides would benefit.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">At the same time, the YSESD, under the leadership of Mr. Berat Kjamili, CEO of migport.com, a company which specializes in providing career opportunities for refugees who have come to Turkey, is developing the YSESD platform for all project participants to use both to improve their ongoing social entrepreneurial ventures, to share ideas with their colleagues, and to meet with potential investors.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><i><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">YSESD and the MENA region and Pakistan</span></i></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Turning to the MENA region and Pakistan, from which our YSESD participants are drawn, it is obvious that the countries in the MENA region and South Asia face myriad problems. One of the most dangerous is global warming caused by climate change which poses an existential threat. Little, if nothing, is being done by states in the MENA region or in Pakistan to combat what should accurately be called the Climate Emergency.</span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Water shortages threaten many countries as drought spreads, rivers dry up and states fight over a critical resource. It was a key causal factor in the Syrian Arab Spring uprising when residents of 175 villages along the Euphrates River were forced to leave them and migrate westward as the reduced river flow would no longer support local agriculture. Failing to receive state support, these migrants began demonstrating peacefully which led to a violent response by the al-Asad regime leading to onset of Syria's civil war which is still ongoing.</span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Like Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen and Jordan are facing serious water problems as are other countries in the MENA region. Pakistan is the third most water stressed country in the world with only a 10% capacity for rainfall storage. Further, Pakistan and many MENA region countries are unable to provide large segments of their population with clean, potable water.</span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Rising sea levels rw causing saline water from the Mediterranean to enter the two tributaries of Egypt's Nile River. The Shatt al-Arab where the Tigris and Euphrates rivers join is also experiencing invasive saline water from the Persian Gulf. In both Egypt and Iraq, this phenomenon has hurt local agricultural production. </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Excessive heat exacerbates the water shortage problem by preventing crops from growing and being harvested. It is also contributing to desertification in the MENA region and Pakistan. Thus, the Climate Emergency contributes to food insecurity. It also adversely affects the health of local populations because dust storms are becoming more frequent causing an increase in pulmonary diseases.</span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Hot temperatures and limited rainfall has also contributed to the spread of wildfires. Large areas of Turkey along the Mediterranean suffered from extensive wildfire during the summer of 2021. Both Lebanon's Bekaa Valley and areas around Jerusalem in Israel also suffered extensive wildfires in 2021. This problem will only worsen in the bear future displacing people from their homes and forcing states to divert funds to tackle this problem.</span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Civil strife and the Climate Emergency have created a large refugee population in the MENA region and Pakistan. Refugees have myriad needs which often aren't or can't be et by the host country. Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, for example, have millions of Syrian refugees who have fled the civil war which has displaced half of the country's population.</span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">How can youth social entrepreneurs help address these problems? Many of the YSESD participants have already initiated excellent projects to help residents and displaced people adapt to the disruption which has affected their lives. These projects have offered training in many skills, including learning the local language and computer usage. </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Other projects engage in recycling waste. These projects offer small amounts of money to local residents who bring their waste to recycling centers but help prevent the spread of disease. They promote a community spirit where residents realize that their community can better handle waste products and receive compensation for better practices as well. One project in Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government provides employment for over 600 people who work in the recycling sector.</span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Another project has developed 7 schools in Iraq for poor and displaced Iraqis. These schools have been able to educate both female as well as male children. The schools charge a minimal fee or no fee at all if funds aren;t available. In Baghdad poor districts, some parents who are illiterate have enrolled in the schools together with their children.</span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><i>Proposed social entrepreneurial projects </i></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><i><br /></i></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">The following list constitutes the "tip of the iceberg," naely a small menu of the tremendous prospects for social entrepreneurial venues in the Global South, such as the MENA region, and Pakistan </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><u>Land reclamation</u> - One of the simplest applications of social entrepreneurship which is needed in the MENA region and Pakistan is combating climate change. As drought and rising temperatures ravage the MENA region and parts of South Asia, desertification has spread. Establishing myriad social entrepreneurial firms, funded by the state, vegetation could be planted throughout areas which have turned to desert or were in the process of doing so.</span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><u>Agricultural mentoring</u> - climate change is fostering food insecurity in the MENA region and south Asia. With support of Ministry of Agriculture, youth entrepreneurial ventures could be developed to help farmers better use their limited water resources.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><u>Recycling companies</u> - food, cardboard, plastic, glass and metal waste are all recyclable. They create problems with landfills, especially in dense urban areas. Food waste can cause disease. Thus, recycling is environmentally beneficial. It can also generate financial resources for the social entrepreneurs. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">But perhaps the greatest inventive is the small amount of money local residents can obtain from bringing their waste to local recycling centers. Finally, food waste can be transformed into organic fertilizer which can be used in local gardens.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><u>Local health care clinics</u> - Working with local hospitals, physicians associations, faculties of health at regional and national universities, and with the national ministry of health, youth social entrepreneurs can organize to provide basic healthcare information and services to poor urban neighborhoods and rural areas which lack health care facilities. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">This process occurred on a temporary basis when youth leading the October Revolution in Iraq. Offering basics such as soap and vaccinations, such clinics can both help poor, underserved populations to acquire basic healthcare while also serving as an informational conduit to governmental agencies to use in improving healthcare services to the poor. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><u>Solar energy</u> - electricity is a commodity which is in short supply in many countries of the Global South. With rising temperatures, electricity is also essential to protect vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, the ill and children, though allowing them access to air conditioning. Electricity is critical for preserving food and having access to information via the Internet.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">In Egypt, a group of youth established a solar energy company, Karam Solar, despite initial oppositiøon fo the Egyptian government. To date, it has provided solar panles to large areas of Egypt. Its providing farmers with solar panels helped them obtain water from deeper in the ground, cut their irrigation costs by cutting down or even elimination the need for diesel fuel altogether (which sometime was not delivered to them in a timely manner), and improve their harvests.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgk9NriXC1iCBdwKRX0Ah1U8XGI0vRdHClSpGUi3qNSInywYXoteImNAIK0STvxBmIjUNBmf4nnQGUqoS5T7JCDj7Golvx3b30SzvEd5I1N-GB0Ro0lIg4y5nkdEBs7x-Gafs-V--wmkQIsROa6KvznTZOohbDgFJCnkOgv_CCDD-TqGzl0qHVOGJHdA/s1280/Jpeg%20Karam%20Soalr%20team%20June%202022.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="1280" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgk9NriXC1iCBdwKRX0Ah1U8XGI0vRdHClSpGUi3qNSInywYXoteImNAIK0STvxBmIjUNBmf4nnQGUqoS5T7JCDj7Golvx3b30SzvEd5I1N-GB0Ro0lIg4y5nkdEBs7x-Gafs-V--wmkQIsROa6KvznTZOohbDgFJCnkOgv_CCDD-TqGzl0qHVOGJHdA/w400-h266/Jpeg%20Karam%20Soalr%20team%20June%202022.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Karm Solar team - Sharikat Karm li-l-Taqa al-Shamsiya</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Most MENA region countries and Pakistan lack adequate electricity. As Iraq and other countries lacking electricity move to devel large solar farms, the time is ripe for providing solar panels to poorer communities and large numbers of farmers . Youth social entrepreneurs can use the Karm Solar model to apply to their own national contexts.</span><div><a href="https://www.karmsolar.com/"><span style="font-size: medium;">Karam Solar, Cairo, Egypt</span></a><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;">For those interested in more information on the Youth Social Entrepreneurship and Sustainable Development Project, or would like to join our youth social entrepreneurs as a Phase 2 participant, mentor, or potential investor, please contact me at: davis@polisci.rutgers.edu, or Mr. Berat Kjamili, CEO, migport.com at: beratmigport@gmail.com</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><div><o:p><br /></o:p></div></div>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-77632950461517088572022-05-24T22:18:00.010-04:002022-05-25T18:37:09.476-04:00Is It Time for Turkey to Leave NATO? Türkiye'nin NATO'dan Ayrılma Zamanı Geldi mi?<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicQ-O18lYjundbmdY_olvmtp33nnn8bzZH6jG_OVvrbF5SjRIeldmGSaU7W2gTRjN2YsTbwBedl9vuT7WjAiWDYuYTaygTztPrMyqcakPDsF1JpsNMpmAhDkZZuNY_NwLVya0qpLxT53N4TXCsH8Gf9Ku1jgcFoTOeJ4c070HifApjtgierA4ob134YQ/s275/JPEG%20NATO%20and%20Finland%20-%20Sweden%20.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicQ-O18lYjundbmdY_olvmtp33nnn8bzZH6jG_OVvrbF5SjRIeldmGSaU7W2gTRjN2YsTbwBedl9vuT7WjAiWDYuYTaygTztPrMyqcakPDsF1JpsNMpmAhDkZZuNY_NwLVya0qpLxT53N4TXCsH8Gf9Ku1jgcFoTOeJ4c070HifApjtgierA4ob134YQ/w400-h232/JPEG%20NATO%20and%20Finland%20-%20Sweden%20.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;">Security alliances are only as strong as the commitment of their members.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Ever since he rose to power in the early 2000s, Turkish president Recip Tayyep </span><span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #202124; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;">Erdoğan </span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;">has worked to consolidate his rule domestically and project Turkey’s influence throughout the Mediterranean basin and beyond.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>As his policies have become more repressive over time and his foreign policy less in line with the objectives of NATO, of which Turkey is a member, the question arises: Is it time for Turkey to leave NATO?</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Turkey has been an important NATO member.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>It has the second largest army of any member and it is situated at a strategically important juncture between Europe and Asia, controlling the key Straits of the Bosporus and Dardanelles which connect the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Nuclear weapons are positioned in Turkey.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">When Turkey was largely controlled throughout the 20th century by the military, democracy was never fully consolidated as several Islamist governments and parties were arbitrarily abrogated by the army’s intervention.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Nevertheless, Turkey held regular elections and power was transferred between secular political parties.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The press enjoyed relative freedom and a wide range of political views populated Turkish political discourse.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>As a NATO member, Turkey always conformed to the alliance’s policies.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Under </span><span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #202124; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erdoğan</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">, especially after 2010, Turkey has increasingly moved towards autocratic rule. The Turkish president has intervened to curb the power of the judiciary. He has removed secularists from positions in the education system and replaced them with political cronies, most notably appointing Islamist rectors to all prominent Turkish universities.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #202124; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erdoğan</span> has </span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">imprisoned large numbers of journalists who have been critical of his rule.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Indeed, Turkey has the dubious distinction of having the highest </span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">percentage per capita of jailed members of the press of any country in the world.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/23/turkish-journalists-solitary-confinement-maltreatment-jail">Revealed: the terror and torment of Turkey's jailed journalists</a> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It is bad enough that Turkey has over 300,000 Turks in jail who have been accused of having links to the 2016 coup attempt which sought to overthrow </span><span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #202124; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erdoğan</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>However, during the largest and most dangerous ground war to threaten Europe since World War II, the Turkish autocrat has blocked the admission of 2 critical countries – Finland and Sweden – to join NATO. Because all 30 members must agree to the admission of any new state, </span><span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #202124; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erdoğan</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> has been able to thwart Finland and Sweden’s membership bid.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLFHkKFZa9x-VtpSe12ngTBvpiINcMbZrQwRQINMAMO4aV_LjFIE_CJzg3MNvfeQcBlI2zc_T6hGEzmpchp1vJO8ltR1pIwdCGahCXX37ZySglLy4TNZ9Hj4a6qUYQ2ci-mEHj8kPwpU5ev-CRzaLmLrt5m8wTVa2hiKF1U_LE2-HmNtXaEJ6n0XS0nA/s300/download.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLFHkKFZa9x-VtpSe12ngTBvpiINcMbZrQwRQINMAMO4aV_LjFIE_CJzg3MNvfeQcBlI2zc_T6hGEzmpchp1vJO8ltR1pIwdCGahCXX37ZySglLy4TNZ9Hj4a6qUYQ2ci-mEHj8kPwpU5ev-CRzaLmLrt5m8wTVa2hiKF1U_LE2-HmNtXaEJ6n0XS0nA/w400-h224/download.jpeg" width="400" /></a></span></div><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">With Finland and Sweden joining NATO, a strong security and psychological blow would be dealt to Russian president Vladimir Putin. One of his goals in invading Ukraine was to prevent another country becoming a NATO member along Russia’s border. With Finland joining NATO, the alliance would gain an added 830-mile defensive capacity along Russia’s Western border. <o:p> </o:p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Both Finland and Sweden have modern and sophisticated armed forces.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Sweden’s navy would help better defend the 3 Baltic republics, Latvia, Estonia. And Lithuania, which Putin would like to annex and reintegrate into Russia as part of his effort to rebuild the geographical reach of the former USSR.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">Sweden’s Gotland Island is only 200 miles from Russia’s border. Since Putin illegally annexed Crimea in 2016, the Swedes have been fortifying the island to prevent Russia from trying to mount a military attack in the eastern Baltic Sea.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span color="inherit" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">Thus, Putin completely miscalculated the response to his invasion of Ukraine which has only strengthened, not weakened NATO.</span><o:p style="color: inherit; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><div style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div class="elementToProof" style="border: 0px; font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #202124; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erdoğan</span>’s argument that he must remain “neutral” in the war so that he can help mediate a ceasefire and end to the conflict has, to date, accomplished nothing.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>While thousands of innocent Ukrainian civilians have been summarily executed by Russian troops, schools, hospitals, and nurseries bombed, and Ukrainian cities and towns reduced to rubble, <span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #202124; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erdoğan</span>’s “neutral” posture is, in effect, an implicit endorsement of Putin’s genocidal policies in Ukraine, a country the Russian tyrant insists doesn’t exist.<o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;">The question then is whether Turkey, under <span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #202124; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erdoğan</span>’s rule, has the right to remain in the NATO alliance.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>It currently enjoys all the benefits of the alliance but has contravened its rules, namely supporting democratic governance domestically and working in tandem with the entire alliance to pursue a unified foreign policy which rejects the willful and unprovoked destruction of a sovereign state by the force of arms.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><br /></p><div style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeMNT-p90Dpy0HpLI1vvoP-1fKjSj-Ck2d9AuD54wmf2XKWLzQBC3PJjGJ60mGRx4h8kVUt-PTa72722GRzMem3NWcIJBhY97JEmyYBu7cLa9bxjgneVnC_FqnTlaZFlQqCgdqbhhcOTPB7BTIk7fTr1L9pYfExMX0ovNHzWkXkoFhtp_DkMrvEpi8VA/s276/JPEG%20Erodgan%20and%20NATO.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="182" data-original-width="276" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeMNT-p90Dpy0HpLI1vvoP-1fKjSj-Ck2d9AuD54wmf2XKWLzQBC3PJjGJ60mGRx4h8kVUt-PTa72722GRzMem3NWcIJBhY97JEmyYBu7cLa9bxjgneVnC_FqnTlaZFlQqCgdqbhhcOTPB7BTIk7fTr1L9pYfExMX0ovNHzWkXkoFhtp_DkMrvEpi8VA/w400-h264/JPEG%20Erodgan%20and%20NATO.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #202124; font-family: Times; text-align: left;">Erdoğan and Putin after S-400 Russian missile deal</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">At least twice, questions have arisen whether to try and remove Turkey as a NATO member. After </span><span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #202124; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erdoğan</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">’s forceful repression following the failed 2016 coup d’état, and then again in 2019 when his forces invaded northeastern Syria to destroy Kurdish forces fighting the Islamic State, many calls were heard for ending Turkey’s membership. His </span><span style="color: #171717;"><span face=""Proxima Nova", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt;">$</span><span style="font-family: times;">2.5 billion of a Russian S-400 mobile </span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">anti-missile system </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">in 2017 infuriated the US and NATO and led the US to impose sanctions on Turkey.</span><o:p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </o:p></div><div style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/14/us-sanctions-turkey-over-russian-s400.html" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">U.S. sanctions Turkey over purchase of Russian S-400 missile system</a><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;">Turkey could be forced to leave the NATO alliance if it can be shown that it has not lived up to the requirements for membership in the alliance.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>However, as many analysts have noted, that would be a difficult process and one most NATO members wouldn’t be comfortable taking as long as the Ukraine war continues.<o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;">However, there are other alternatives.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>First, NATO can insist that Turkey conform to its policy towards Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>If it continues to refuse to do so, the alliance could cut off sharing intelligence with the <span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #202124; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erdoğan</span> regime. While the immediate impact might have limited military consequences for <span style="background: white; border: 0px; color: #202124; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erdoğan</span>, the very fact of a public announcement by NATO would be a huge embarrassment to his regime.<o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9-nUldkDFRt9f8OBsdPbgsQ7vHbq3KEnYmeYVbdKLWt_IB8PmEUHi9b5vtUnGo_4GF1GfB9RAaBSAOO-KsmIlXJQ9GIHEL8TOAbfiCmta5ctgYYB_bjor2gZXgnIagfTo6ZzD2YSHtZaUxcLt8vh3j4XWap8jlfUaMepRY79wb8NLa3J1QwIv_oNn_g/s770/JPEG%20Turkish%20demonstrations%20against%20inflation.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="513" data-original-width="770" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9-nUldkDFRt9f8OBsdPbgsQ7vHbq3KEnYmeYVbdKLWt_IB8PmEUHi9b5vtUnGo_4GF1GfB9RAaBSAOO-KsmIlXJQ9GIHEL8TOAbfiCmta5ctgYYB_bjor2gZXgnIagfTo6ZzD2YSHtZaUxcLt8vh3j4XWap8jlfUaMepRY79wb8NLa3J1QwIv_oNn_g/w400-h266/JPEG%20Turkish%20demonstrations%20against%20inflation.webp" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Turks demonstrate against the high rate of inflation</td></tr></tbody></table>Second, the US and European Union members of NATO could refuse to support economic efforts by Erdogan to address the serious financial problems facing the country, where the inflation rate is currently estimated at almost 70%.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The IMF,<span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12pt;">World Bank and other international financial institutions should make any form of cooperation with the Erdogan regime contingent on joining the sanctions regime against Russia.</span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><o:p style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/5/turkeys-inflation-rate-soars-to-almost-70-percent-in-april#:~:text=The%20consumer%20price%20index%20has,with%2061.14%20percent%20in%20March.">Turkey's Inflation Rate Soars to Almost 70%</a> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;">Third, the US should withhold its proposed sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>There is no need to make the delay public.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Instead, the Biden administration can send a tacit message that there will be no further arms sales until <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #202124; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erdoğan</span> drops his opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. A combination of a threat to censure Turkey by NATO, Western economic pressure, and the refusal to sell Turkey Western arms is the only language <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #202124; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Erdoğan</span> understands.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Hard-nosed realpolitik is the course NATO should pursue to force the Turkish dictator to become a committed member of the alliance.<o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;">NATO is the most important organization standing between Putin’s destruction of Ukraine and his efforts to build a new Russian empire stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>It also represents a bulwark against rising levels of autocracy in the world, including in Turkey.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The stakes regarding Turkey’s NATO membership extend far beyond the Anatolian Peninsula. Indeed, they have serious ramifications for the future of the world order. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-20091277080574938282022-04-29T21:57:00.019-04:002022-05-01T10:12:42.240-04:00Youth and Confronting the Climate Emergency in Iraq: Examples from the American New Deal الشباب ومواجهة طوارئ المناخ في العراق: أمثلة من الصفقة الأمريكية الجديدة؟<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZu_CZYgWURAKtgbZdirV-MT9RPHrWnfOOQG_5GsXYn5pDGnRcEDUslM-GNWyZuInj51rWa4lw4QV4-_tggjV5eI2cF7mxl-PEX1lldOp8Q5WP3McTGLMQsTcVAjaqsTPcOAwcyAtLsiDnacEdMqcKTQqiEDPYjol1RIOQx4bgalfrn2MCbRlKnN2l0g/s660/NME%20Thawart%20Tishreen%20serve%20food%20to%20the%20poor%20fish%20and%20rice.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="660" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZu_CZYgWURAKtgbZdirV-MT9RPHrWnfOOQG_5GsXYn5pDGnRcEDUslM-GNWyZuInj51rWa4lw4QV4-_tggjV5eI2cF7mxl-PEX1lldOp8Q5WP3McTGLMQsTcVAjaqsTPcOAwcyAtLsiDnacEdMqcKTQqiEDPYjol1RIOQx4bgalfrn2MCbRlKnN2l0g/w400-h266/NME%20Thawart%20Tishreen%20serve%20food%20to%20the%20poor%20fish%20and%20rice.webp" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Iraqi youth democracy protesters serve fish and rice to the poor in Baghdad 's Liberation Square</td></tr></tbody></table><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Iraq is one of five countries suffering from the most serious effects of rapid increase in temperatures.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Already high temperatures, combined with a weak electricity infrastructure, has resulted in serious health consequences for elderly and ill Iraqis, and young children.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Combined with a serious drought which began in 2007, and a decline in the water levels of Iraq’s two main rivers, the Tigris and Euphrates, Iraq is facing a Climate Emergency. What can be done to mitigate its effects? <o:p> </o:p></span><div><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In addition to the Climate Emergency, Iraq is facing several other key problems.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>One of the most serious is the extensive unemployment which bedevils the country, especially high among youth, both uneducated and educated alike.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Iraq's youth population represents the next generation of Iraqis, in all sectors of society.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>How can unemployed youth help Iraq address what could be an existential threat to society?<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Another problem is the ongoing attacks by cells of the Islamic State which seeks to reestablish itself in Iraq.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>While these attacks do not threaten to destabilize the government, both the Federal Government in Baghdad and the KRG in Erbil, IS attacks are having an impact on Iraq’s infrastructure and agriculture.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Oil pipelines have been attacked, power lines toppled, crops have been burned, a</span><span color="inherit" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">nd local officials in towns and villages have been assassinated.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Recently, Iraq’s Minister of Infrastructure, Jasim al-Falahi, proposed that the state engage in multiple infrastructure projects, especially in electricity and agriculture. He also suggested that the state employ large numbers of Iraqi youth to reduce waste by promoting recycling.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The Minister argued that, by dramatically expanding the recycling sector, Iraq could enhance economic growth and improve health conditions.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Of course, by providing jobs, Iraq would address the discontent of many youth who c</span><span color="inherit" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">an’t find employment, even those who are university graduates with advanced degrees.</span><o:p style="color: inherit; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><o:p style="color: inherit; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://almadapaper.net/view.php?cat=263308">وزير البيئة لـ(المدى): مشروع لتدوير النفايات يوفر آلاف فرص العمل</a><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal elementToProof" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">As the October Revolution (<i>Thawrat Tishreen</i>) which began in October 2019 has demonstrated, many Iraqi youth are imbued with a strong civic consciousness and spirit. During their peaceful protests which demanded the elimination of widespread state corruption and democratic reforms, demonstrators invariably engaged in cleaning refuse in the city and town centers where their protests were held.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Food was often served to the poor and makeshift health clinics provided medical care and advice to those in need of treatment and medicine.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">What these developments suggest is the possibility to address two of Iraq’s most serious problems: the Climate Emergency and youth unemployment. Currently, Iraq is enjoying increased revenues due to higher oil prices.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Using these increased funds, Iraq could establish its own CCC, comprised primarily of youth. What is suggested here is the creation of an Iraq Youth Corps (IYC) which would employ youth to tackle problems created by Iraq’s Climate Emergency.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">During the Great Depression of the 1930s, President Franklin Roosevelt established the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC).<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Employing Americans who had lost their jobs because of the Depression, the CCC was funded by the government to build important projects throughout the United States.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>One of these projects was to plant trees and cull undergrowth to increase the size and quality of American forests.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Another was building infrastructure projects in more remote and poorer areas of the United States to stimulate the local economy.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">An Iraqi Youth Corps could create groups of Arab, Kurdish, Turkmen Iraqis, as well as other ethnic and confessional groups, to participate together in these planting and infrastructural development projects in both Arab Iraq and the KRG. Thus, the CCC could become a vehicle for bringing youth from different ethnic and confessional heritages to get to know one another better, thereby contributing to a greater sense of federal unity.</span><o:p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal elementToProof" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal elementToProof" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">As the October Revolution (<i>Thawrat Tishreen</i>) which began in October 2019 has demonstrated, many Iraqi youth are imbued with a civic consciousness and spirit. During their peaceful protests demanding the elimination of widespread state corruption and democratic reforms, demonstrators invariably engaged in cleaning refuse in the city and town centers where protests were held.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Food was often served to the poor and makeshift health clinics provide medical care and advice to those needing treatment and medicine.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">What these developments suggest is the possibility of confronting two of Iraq’s most serious problems: the Climate Emergency and youth unemployment. Currently, Iraq is enjoying increased revenues due to higher oil prices.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Using these additional funds, Iraq could establish its own CCC, comprised primarily of youth. What is suggested here is the creation of an Iraq Youth Corps (IYC) which would employ youth to tackle problems created by Iraq’s Climate Emergency.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><a href="https://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2022/04/21/iraqs-economic-update-april-2022/">Iraq's 2022 Economic Forecast</a><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">During the Great Depression of the 1930s, President Franklin Roosevelt established the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC).</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Employing Americans who had lost their jobs because of the Depression, the CCC was funded by the government to build important projects throughout the United States.</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">One of these projects was to plant trees and cull undergrowth to increase the size and quality of American forests.</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Another was building infrastructure projects in more remote and poorer areas of the United States to stimulate the local economy.</span><o:p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><o:p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">An Iraqi </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">Youth Corps, </span>modelled<span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> on the CCC, could create groups of Arab, Kurdish, Turkmen Iraqis, as well as other ethnic and confessional groups, to participate together in these planting and infrastructural development projects in both Arab Iraq and the KRG. Thus, the CCC could become a vehicle for bringing youth from different ethnic and confessional heritages to get to know one another better, thereby contributing to a greater sense of federal unity.</span></span><o:p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">One of the critical areas confronting Iraq is addressing is its shortage of electricity. Since the ousting of Saddam Husayn in 2003, whose Ba<sup>c</sup>thist regime had distributed electricity to Baghdad to the detriment of southern Iraq, electric power remains in short supply throughout the country.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The lack of electricity has forced many Iraqis to purchase generators which run on highly polluting diesel fuel.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Not only is this costly, but it has dramatically increased air pollution in many Iraqi cities and towns.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Serious negative health consequences have been caused by the resultant air pollution.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">To improve national electric production, Iraq is currently building large solar farms, especially in the south of the country, with the help of Chinese and German firms. However, these solar farms won’t meet the immediate needs of Iraqis in the south of the country, where temperatures rise to above 50 degrees Celsius (125 F), during the summer months. <o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="inherit" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">Through installing affordable solar panels, either placed on roof of houses, or in small solar farms near residential areas, Iraq could address the lack of air conditioning which has led to the death of the elderly, ill and very young.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span color="inherit" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">Given the abundance of sunlight, solar energy is a natural step in developing Iraq’s energy infrastructure.</span><o:p style="color: inherit; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="inherit" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">Training youth to install solar energy panels would address several problems at once.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span color="inherit" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">Most importantly, Iraqis wouldn’t have to wait until large electricity generators are built to gain access to electricity.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span color="inherit" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">Instead, they could benefit immediately from the installation of solar panels.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span color="inherit" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">Second, the installation process would offer employment to Iraqi youth. Offering jobs and a steady income would reducing discontent among youth who constitute Iraq's largest demographic, comprising 70% of the population under the age of 30.</span><o:p style="color: inherit; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">One way to promote solar energy would be to recruit local notables, clerics, tribal leaders and merchants to support these projects, thereby lending them greater legitimacy.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>In return, these notables could take partial credit for the solar panels having been installed and assume added responsibility for their security.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken credit for solar energy provided to farmers in the village of Palli in Indian controlled Kashmir.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>This has delighted village residents who heretofore had to burn wood and lacked a continuous source of energy.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/24/world/asia/modi-kashmir-india.html?searchResultPosition=1 ">Modi, in restive region, trumpets Green Energy</a></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By developing a solar energy industry in Iraq, youth would engage in training which could teach them critical skills which, to those who sought to remain in the industry, would be useful for a lifetime.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The use of solar panels would allow many Iraqi families to dispense with diesel fueled generators which are often the only sources of electricity.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Air pollution would be reduced in the process of transitioning to solar energy.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span color="inherit" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Further, providing electricity, the lack of which has led to consistent protests during the extremely hot summer months, would quell much of the anger directed at the government in Baghdad which is considered remote and uninterested in the difficulties ordinary Iraqis face in their everyday lives. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Lack of electricity has sparked violent protests in southern Iraq over the past several summers and show no sign of abating if the issue isn’t addressed.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">As temperatures rise, and its drought continues, Iraq faces increasing desertification.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>This process has led to the development of dust storms, in part due to reduced vegetation. Recent dust storms not only halted flights into and out of Iraq as airports were forced to close, but also led to increased attacks by the Islamic State terrorist group which benefited from the poor visibility caused by the storms.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/09/dozens-hospitalised-as-iraq-engulfed-by-dust-storm">Dozens hospitalised as Iraq engulfed by dust storm</a> </span><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">By planting more vegetation, Iraq can offset the desertification process, while once again giving large numbers of youth work at the same time. To frame this work as confronting Iraq’s climate emergency, the Federal and KRG governments can make youth proud of their civic contribution to Iraq.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>While planting trees is possible in the cooler climates of the hilly areas of the KRG, perennial grasses, shrubs and herbs need to be planted extensively throughout the hotter areas of the south.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Members of the Iraqi Youth Corps could also be trained to help farmers in water management.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Making irrigation more efficient, planting crops in shady areas where possible, using “drip” agriculture, and teaching water conservation measures could contribute </span><span color="inherit" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;">to improving the quality of Iraq’s agrarian sector and the lives of ots farmers.</span><o:p style="color: inherit; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In the KRG, many government employees, who receive sporadic salary payments, have moved to the countryside to engage in farming for supplemental income.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Saddam’s brutal ANFAL campaign of the 1980s destroyed much of Iraqi Kurdistan’s agrarian sector.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Here Kurdish and Arab youth, who were members of the Iraqi Youth Corps, could help increase the size of the KRG’s agriculture, thereby contributing to Iraq’s food security.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In many areas of Iraq, potable water is unavailable or, if available, polluted and unhealthy to drink.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>This problem has seriously affected the Marshes of southern Iraq (<i>al-Ahwar</i>), which once enjoyed the benefit of large amounts of water, purified by the extensive papyrus and other plants which grew in the region, but which have now been seriously reduced by Iraq’s persistent drought.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/12/travel/iraq-mesopotamian-marshes.html">In Iraq, Drought and Abundance in the Southern Marshes</a><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Iraqi Youth Corps could work with appropriate ministries and regional agencies to engage in two important activities.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>First, they could help identify areas where potable water is unavailable and report this data to government officials. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Second, they could actually deliver water to the areas where it is unavailable, thereby improving the health conditions of the local residents.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Already, we have seen in southern Iraq that lack of access to potable water has depressed birth rates and contributed to ill health among the inhabitants and their children.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><a href="https://daraj.com/en/36884/">The Southern Mesopotamia: Draught and Pemphigus Threaten Women and Children</a><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Finally, there are ongoing efforts to empower youth social entrepreneurs. Baghdad’s Kapita Business Hub, for example, incubates 20 start-ups per month. </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">To return to Minister Jasim al-Fallahi’s proposed initiative on recycling mentioned earlier, the Iraqi Youth Corps could become a source of skilled Iraqis who could move beyond government employment to develop their own start-ups.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://kapita.iq/about">KAPITA Start-up SME Incubator - Baghdad</a><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">One set of start-ups could be establishing recycling companies throughout Iraq.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Because there are already such companies in Erbil, Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq, these new firms could help create a string recycling sector in Iraq’s economy.<o:p> However, one could imagine Green Energy startups, agricultural mentoring firms, startups designed to promote civic education in schools, and Citizenship and Service Education (CASE) which would enables Iraqi students in secondary school and universities to engage in internships providing services to their country.</o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0in; text-align: start;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p></div></div>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-38734292344066652652022-03-31T16:14:00.002-04:002022-03-31T16:45:59.876-04:00The Middle East and the Globalization of the Ukraine War<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: times;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiPRorkwigZy-jWiKCirSH8Kf21bEHskPcE1KtBTcZpTU2P8fwvRpPDNYKg7iPfdpEpIklssGT_cWmlpw3ngvv3DKvMHavvBSvjdFKxtGXmZmSdOj588H8Z8A95iZCifSLS6ISb_EuFszAuJcAl8_f0HrlqTqyXXfdC6Nkujx8QEZMumkN8RyCGceoHA/s2190/JPEG%20Reasons%20for%20Mideast%20countries%20to%20worry%20about%20the%20Ukraine%20crisis.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2190" data-original-width="1920" height="401" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiPRorkwigZy-jWiKCirSH8Kf21bEHskPcE1KtBTcZpTU2P8fwvRpPDNYKg7iPfdpEpIklssGT_cWmlpw3ngvv3DKvMHavvBSvjdFKxtGXmZmSdOj588H8Z8A95iZCifSLS6ISb_EuFszAuJcAl8_f0HrlqTqyXXfdC6Nkujx8QEZMumkN8RyCGceoHA/w352-h401/JPEG%20Reasons%20for%20Mideast%20countries%20to%20worry%20about%20the%20Ukraine%20crisis.png" width="352" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: times;">How has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affected the Middle East?<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>There have been many attempts to address this issue.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>However, several key issues still need to be examined.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>What are these issues and why are they significant?<o:p> How do they reflect on the tendency of local wars to become globalized, namely to affect regions far beyond the conflict arena?</o:p></span><div><span style="font-family: times;"><br /></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><i><span style="font-family: times;">Food shortages, poverty and authoritarian rule<o:p> </o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">It’s already become clear that the Ukraine War has led to a spike in food prices as Russian and Ukrainian exports of corn, barley, sunflowers (for cooking oil), and especially wheat, have been dramatically curtailed.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Even if hostilities were halted soon, the 2022 agricultural season has been irreparably damaged. <o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">With many MENA region countries dependent on wheat and other products from Ukraine and Russia, as well as Belarus, which is an important exporter of fertilizer, predictions are that severe food shortages will affect both the MENA region and the African continent.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Starvation may even result in a number of countries. Regarding wheat, the most important crop, other countries such as the United States, Brazil and Argentina will not be able to make up the shortfall caused by the Ukraine war.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">To take Egypt as an example, 85% of its wheat is imported.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, inflation was growing, and food prices were on the rise.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>In 2016, Egypt received a large $12 billion IMF loan, which was intended to diversify the economy and address poverty, with afflicts a third of the country.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/26/world/middleeast/mideast-food-prices-ramadan.html?searchResultPosition=1 ">Mideast Feels Pinch of Rising Food Prices as Ramadan Nears</a><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">Instead, President ‘Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi’s regime used the IMF loan for other purposes.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Funds were invested in real estate development and to construct a lavish new Egyptian in the desert outside Cairo.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Clearly, al-Sisi was more interested in meeting his personal interests and those of the Egyptian political elite, than the needs of the populace at large.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Understandably, there has been rising discontent at the inability of the regime to address rising prices which have skyrocketed just before the onset of the month of Ramadan.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">Not only will Putin’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine cause disadvantaged sectors of society throughout the Middle East, Africa and other countries of the Global South to suffer, but it will increase political instability.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>As the Egyptian case suggests, rising food prices and the resulting food insecurity will intensify the focus on state corruption and the manner in which authoritarian regimes fulfill the interests of the small elites which support them while ignoring the needs of their citizenry.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><i><span style="font-family: times;">Increased opportunities for mercenaries<o:p> </o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">Russian miscalculations of Ukrainian resistance have not only foiled its efforts to seize Ukraine’s major cities but have resulted in a very large casualties among its forces.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Indeed, Putin has been forced to move troops from eastern Russia and even from the breakaway Russian occupied regions of Georgia to come fight in Ukraine.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">Reports indicate that over 40,000 Syrians have volunteered to fight for Russia in Ukraine.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>While one might think this reflects support for Russia and its goals in attacking Ukraine, interviews with Syrians going to fight in Ukraine indicate otherwise.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Those getting ready to fly to Russia indicate that they cannot support themselves and their families given Syria’s ravaged economy. With Russia willing to pay $7000 per month for those willing to serve on the frontlines, and $3500 for those willing to serve in ancillary military roles, the material needs of many males of combat age are such that they are drawn to taking up Putin’s offer, albeit reluctantly.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;"><o:p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-middle-east-60931180">Ukraine War: The Syrians Signing Up to Fight for Russia</a><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">With the MENA region facing droughts, water shortages and rising temperatures, resulting from the impact of the global Climate Emergency, we can expect instability in the region to increase, regardless of the Ukraine war, especially in those countries which lack significant resources, such as oil and natural gas.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>As local economies, such as those of Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Yemen, Algeria and Lebanon, face ever greater challenges, autocrats like Putin will find a growing source of mercenaries ready to fight for whoever is willing to pay them salaries.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><i><span style="font-family: times;">Russia’s ability to exercise power in the MENA region<o:p> </o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">What few analysts have speculated on thus far is the extent to which the sanctions to which Russia has been subjected will affect its global foreign policy. What will be the sanctions’ long term impact?<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>While the impact has yet to be fully felt, Russia will no doubt remain a pariah state long after the Ukraine war has ended, especially if Vladimir Putin retains power.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Will the myriad Western corporations which have shut down their operations in Russia be willing to return to the status quo ante after the war is over?<o:p> </o:p></span></p><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: times;"><br /></span></div><div id="Signature" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div><div dir="ltr" id="divtagdefaultwrapper" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div></div></div></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">When looking at Russia’s role in the MENA region, Syria immediately comes to mind. Will Russia have the economic wherewithal and the manpower needed to continue its active support of Bashar al-Asad’s regime in Syria?<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The Syrian economy is on life support and al-Asad’s control of much of the country is tenuous at best.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>In what ways could the Russian-Syrian alliance be a causality of what is increasingly an enormous blunder which Putin made in attacking Ukraine?<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">Russia has committed to building a new nuclear reactor in Iran.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>However, the rigorous sanctions which have been imposed by the West, Japan, South Korea, and other countries have severed Russia’s access to crucial technology, such as microchips.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>There have been reports that Russia is having difficulty in servicing and repairing its energy industry’s infrastructure due to a lack of spare parts and other technical requirements. Under these circumstances, will Russia be able to exert political influence though development projects which it can no longer implement?<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></o:p></p><span style="font-family: times;"><span style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Turkey’s relationship to Russia will certainly undergo change as well. There was great concern when Turkey concluded an agreement with Russia to purchase its S-400 missile system.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>However, Putin’s miscalculation that the invasion of Ukraine would lead to a quick Russian victory and replacing </span><span style="background-color: white;">the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy has lengthened the invasion far beyond Russia’s initial expectation.</span><span style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="background-color: white;">This delay in bringing Putin’s “Special military Operation” to a close has forced Turkey to close the Straits of the Bosporus and Dardanelles, preventing </span><span style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Russian access to the Black Sea, thereby impeding its ability to attack southern Ukrainian port cities.</span><o:p style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit;"> </o:p></span></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">Perhaps more significant is the drones which Turkey has supplied to Ukraine’s military.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The Bayrakter TB2 is an inexpensive ($2 million each) and slow-moving drone.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>However, it is simple to operate and has been responsible for large numbers of Russian casualties thus far in the Ukraine war.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Further, the drones have been key in providing the Ukrainian government with visual imagery of the large number of Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers which Ukraine has been able to destroy.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-middle-east-africa-libya-europe-ecb9e820ea4bddb4464d7e8cb40e82fc#:~:text=Cheap%20but%20lethal%20Turkish%20drones,against%20Russian%20invasion%20%7C%20AP%20News ">Cheap but lethal Turkish drones bolster Ukraine’s defenses</a><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><i><span style="font-family: times;">Changing alliance structures in the Middle East<o:p> </o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">Another area which requires more study is the impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have on local alliance structures.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Israel has been criticized for its tepid condemnation of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and its unwillingness to impose sanctions on Russia.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Israel has developed a tacit agreement with Russia that it can attack Hizballah units in Syria and Lebanon, as well as Iranian arms shipments to Syria, despite Russia’s support of the al-Asad regime.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">However, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has come under increasing criticism from within his own governing coalition, especially from Foreign Minister, Yair Lapid, and members of the US Congress. Will the Israeli-Russian tacit agreement over Syrian and Lebanon withstand the test of the Ukraine war, especially as Russia reduces Ukrainian cities to rubble, as it has already done with Mariupol?<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">Finally, what impact has the war had on the MENA region’s core conflict, namely the struggle for regional hegemony between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies?<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>With the recent summit in Israel’s Negev Desert, which bought together the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco and Israel, will the anti-Iranian alliance become stronger?<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Will Russia lose influence as it’s left to maneuver between the competing forces, namely Iran and the Arab-Israel alliance?<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">If anti-Iranian forces feel empowered through Israel's support, and become more aggressive towards Iran, especially if its Houthi allies in Yemen continue to send drones to bomb Saudi and UAE targets, how will Putin respond?<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Will Putin double down on Russia’s support for the Tehran regime, or will he moderate his support for Iran in hopes of retaining ties to Arab states, some of which have purchased Russian arms, such as Egypt, as well as Israel?<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;"><i>A spread of terrorism</i>?<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times;">Little attention has been given to the possible spread of terrorism in the MENA region caused by rising food prices, an important driver of the Arab Spring uprisings. With increased economic disruption, it is conceivable to envision Libya and Syria becoming venues for the spread of terrorist groups loyal to the Islamic State, and to seeing an increase of the Islamic State’s ongoing attacks in northern and north central Iraq. <o:p> </o:p></span></p><p></p></div>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3885551147305551069.post-62455315651568610222022-03-09T22:53:00.011-05:002022-03-11T15:14:59.962-05:00The World Changed on February 24, 2022: What Impact will Putin's War Have on the Middle East العالم تغير في 24 فبراير 2022: ما هو تأثير حرب بوتين على الشرق الأوسط؟<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg9hH5EPqE7fA4pFvw-xm6cWtsCwTp1DMFGBk0p8Z23zBwYY8osuHlSrKf1DxY1N47BioF2U_rJL0Q-cD3qiAn9prmedFCIMcAZ_OhxQmFRVmmawidNyhPHLys_pS2mq70h9TlsiAyzzQx5tGFM7RtT4c_Q-fxgoCPnnpd2HyF8ZQ7Y3nngrkS1GSFUKQ=s2000" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1333" data-original-width="2000" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg9hH5EPqE7fA4pFvw-xm6cWtsCwTp1DMFGBk0p8Z23zBwYY8osuHlSrKf1DxY1N47BioF2U_rJL0Q-cD3qiAn9prmedFCIMcAZ_OhxQmFRVmmawidNyhPHLys_pS2mq70h9TlsiAyzzQx5tGFM7RtT4c_Q-fxgoCPnnpd2HyF8ZQ7Y3nngrkS1GSFUKQ=w400-h266" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">President Volodymyr Zelenskyy leading Ukraine's war against Putin's aggression</td></tr></tbody></table><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">What impact’s is Vladimir Putin’s brutal attack on Ukraine having on the Middle East?<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Many observers, both analysts and lay people, feel that, as long as NATO stays out of the conflict, the rest of the world need not worry about the war because no nuclear weapons will be used as a result.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>However, we only need look at one region of the world, the Middle East, to realize that it’s naïve to think that the invasion of Ukraine’s impact will be limited to the two countries fighting the current war.<o:p> </o:p></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">First, there is the issue of food insecurity.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The MENA region and much of Africa is highly dependent on Russia and Ukraine which produce roughly 30% of the world’s wheat, a grain critical to the diet of millions of people and one that helps prevent starvation.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/world/middleeast/in-north-africa-ukraine-war-strains-economies-weakened-by-pandemic.html?searchResultPosition=1">In North Africa, Ukraine War Strains Economies Weakened by Pandemic</a> </span><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Egypt, for example, has been having problems feeding its ever-growing population for many decades. Already food prices are high and the lack of wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine will only increase prices still further.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>What is highly disturbing is that rising wheat process may lead to serious problems for the poor in Egypt and many other nations.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/video/russia-ukraine-war-egypt-bread-prices-soar-amid-effects-crisis">Egypt: Bread Prices Soar Amid Effects of Crisis</a><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Second, there is the increased tension between the major Arab oil producing countries in the MENA region, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and the US and European Union. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The West’s stringent sanctions regime has made it much harder for Russia to not only export its oil and natural gas but to sustain the financing of its energy industry given its inability to access foreign currency. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Investors always fears of the economic consequences war.<span> The reduction of Russian oil and natural gas exports, however limited, still is forcing the price of oil and natural gas to skyrocket.</span><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">In natural gas production, Qatar has stepped in willingly to try and meet rising global demand to offset cuts in Russian natural gas to Europe, whether as a result of sanctions or Putin’s decisions to reduce the flow.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>However, both Saudi Arabia and, initially, the UAE have refused to increase production which they both could do quickly.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">What is especially disturbing is that leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE refused to take telephone calls from President Joe Biden. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Not only was this an insult to the US president, but it demonstrated how the US and the West can no longer depend on these two powerful oil-producing countries to sacrifice profits when it comes to global security.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-emirati-leaders-decline-calls-with-biden-during-ukraine-crisis-11646779430?mod=search_trending_now_article_pos3">Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls with Biden during Ukraine Crisis</a> </span><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">However, today we learned that the UAE has agreed to increase oil production outside the OPEC+ agreement with Russia. Putin shrewdly pushed this agreement prior to the invasion of Ukraine in an effort to prevent Saudi Arabia and the UAE – which have spare capacity (2 million barrels/day and one million barrels/per day respectively) – from filling the gap if Russian oil was sanctioned.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2022/03/10/oil-prices-retreat-as-uae-proposes-opec-increase-oil-production-at-a-faster-pace/">Oil Prices Retreat as UAE Proposes OPEC Increase Oil Production at a Faster Pace</a><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">If Saudi Arabia, which indicated it was disturbed not to have been informed of the UAE decision before it was announced, thinks that partnering with <span>Russia (and China) offers a better option than its traditional alliance with the United States and Europe, then Muhammad Bin Salman and the Saudi leadership are very foolish indeed.</span><span> </span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span>Russia is led by an unpredictable leader, as his strategically disastrous miscalculation of the invasion of Ukraine demonstrates.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><span>China is a global economic power which is still constrained in its technological growth by a highly authoritarian and likewise unpredictable regime.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span>In nether Russia or China, does the rule of law exercise much influence.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span>Further, the Saudi and Arab Gulf economies are highly intertwined with American banks, investment firms and corporations. To jeopardize these ties makes no sense.</span><span> </span><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">A third area of impact is less visible but may play a greater role in the coming days and weeks.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>There have been reports that Putin is trying to recruit Syrian fighters from Bashar al-Asad’s regime.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>These fighters have been involved in urban warfare against radical Islamists in Syria.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Using foreign fighters like these could cut Russian troop losses which are already estimated to be 12,000 killed and over 30,000 wounded. In Putin's view, instead of having troops in body bags returned to Russia, have them go to Syria and other MENA region allies.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-recruiting-syrians-for-urban-combat-in-ukraine-u-s-officials-say-11646606234">Russia Recruiting Syrians for Urban Combat in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say</a><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Other candidates for Putin’s recruitment strategy could be Iran, Iraq and Lebanon.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Iranian troops, who are part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), could join the mercenaries brought to the battlefield in Ukraine to augment Russian forces.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>In Iraq, there has been a not inconsiderable public support for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine from <span>militias (</span><i>al-Hashad al-Sha<sup>c</sup>bi</i><span>) which support Iran.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span>Posters of Putin haven been seen in parts of Baghdad and elsewhere.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span>Finally, Lebanon’s Hizballah might also send forces to fight in Ukraine.</span><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-family: times; font-size: medium; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-iran-lebanon-middle-east-c98c06fe6fc6fbd237d9edd824d37541">Ukraine war highlights internal divides in Mideast nations</a> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Needless to say, fighters participating in Ukraine’s war with Russia will further contribute to political polarization and instability in the Middle East.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Because the fighters would be overwhelmingly Alawites or Shi<sup>c</sup>a, this development would frighten Sunni Arab countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states. Their response would be to use sectarian rhetoric to prop up their social base in their respective countries.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Fourth, there is the possible global impact of Russia’s inability to service its foreign debt.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>According to most projections, it will default on its foreign debt in April and beyond.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>The impact of Russia's default will be to frighten foreign investors, especially those with exposure to emerging market countries, such as Brazil, India, China and, in the Middle East, Egypt and Turkey, and withdraw their funding for projects in these countries.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/03/09/fitch-ratings-russia-default-ukraine-sanctions/">Russia's 'Imminent' Default would be Catastrophic. Here's Why</a><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">The lack of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which many emerging market countries have depended on, will only further erode their economic development.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Thus, we see that the international sanctions, historically the most stringent on a country the size of Russia, are not only directly affecting Putin’s regime, but having an economic impact far beyond the Ukraine war. <span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Finally, there is the strong inventive which Putin’s invasion has sparked for European countries to switch their energy supplies from dependence on Russia. While natural gas will no doubt play a longer term role in Europe’s energy needs, the reduction of oil imports will speed up as governments ramp up building wind and solar energy farms and use financial incentives to foster their citizens to switch from combustion vehicles to electric cars.<span color="inherit" style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">This means a decline in demand for oil from MENA region oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Libya and the Arab Gulf states. Because most analysts have believed that demand for oil wouldn't experience a serious decline before 2030, the huge mistake Putin made by invading Ukraine may actually be to speed up the transition to renewable sources of energy, thereby reducing revenues to Russia and Middle East oil producers.<o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div style="border: 0px; font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br style="background-color: white;" /></div></div></div>Eric Davishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07142094662492362832noreply@blogger.com0