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| Dr. Yoav Peled, Emeritus Professor of Politcal Science, Tel Aviv University |
Yoav Peled - KPFK/Jacobin Radio interview, July 21, 2025; broadcast on KPFK July 27; on Jacobin Radio on July 30
Suzi Weissman: Welcome to Beneath the Surface. I'm Suzi Weissman. Today we return to the Israeli political landscape with Yoav Peled, professor emeritus of political science at Tel Aviv University. Yoav is going to help us unpack the intersection between Benjamin Netanyahu's domestic survival strategy and his military offensives.
All politics are local, but Netanyahu has a very international way of expressing them. We last spoke with Yoav as the one year anniversary of the October 7th Hamas attack approached. Since then, Israel's war on Gaza has intensified in destruction and disregard for Palestinian lives and has become systematized. Ethnic cleansing through bombardment, starvation as a weapon, and siege.
The resumption of aid, controlled by Israeli and American contractors has resulted in nearly a thousand deaths, as the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) regularly shoot hungry Palestinians seeking sustenance in humiliating, barbaric and deadly conditions. The Wall Street Journal reports that even Palestinians holding white flags while seeking food have been shot. There are now more child amputees in Gaza than anywhere in the world. Plus, the West Bank is witnessing settler violence with near-total impunity, and Israel's military escalation has spread to Lebanon, Syria and Iran while Netanyahu clings to power. Today, we're going to get Yoav’s assessment of Netanyahu's rule and Israel at war.
We're also going to ask about the weekly protests inside Israel and whether public confidence has collapsed. A new poll reveals public support for ending the war, even at the cost of a political deal with Hamas. So there's a lot to unpack there. But let me just introduce you to our audience.
Yoav is professor emeritus of political science at Tel Aviv University. He is coauthor, with Horit Herman Peled, of The Religionization of Israeli Society that was published in 2019 but is increasingly a critical text for all of us to understand. He's also coeditor with John Ehrenberg of Israel and Palestine: Alternative Perspectives on Statehood, and his book, coauthored with Gershon Shafir, Being Israeli: The Dynamics of Multiple Citizenship, won the 2002 Albert Hourani Award, given by the Middle East Studies Association of North America for the best book published on Middle East Studies that year. Currently Yoav is writing about the rise of Israeli populism. So with all that, Yoav, I'm happy to have you back.
The subject is never good. So let's begin, I guess, with the big picture. You've long argued that Netanyahu's war policies are primarily about domestic political survival. How do you understand this logic now? And do you think that Netanyahu is trying to make peace impossible because peace would mean the end of his government?
Yoav Peled: Well, to a very large extent this is true. We have to understand that, ideologically, Netanyahu or Bibi, as I would like to call him, is not that different from the extreme right in his government – Bezalel Smotrich, Itamir Ben-Gvir and so on. But Netanyahu, or Bibi, is an opportunist. And because he's an opportunist, he was also a pragmatist. All of this before his trial for corruption. Since his trial for corruption he set out on basically two courses of action. One is debilitating the Israeli judicial system, most importantly the apex court, the High Court of Justice, which is the Supreme Court sitting as an equity court. The other one is this endless war.
Both of those things will help him get out of his trial as a free man. His trial has become a circus anyway, because the judges just let him run the show. It's just ridiculous. But I won't get into that. And then in terms of the war, or various wars, that he is conducting, this also extends his rule, even though, like you said, 70% or more of the Israeli public support ending the war and returning all of the hostages that Hamas has, reportedly 20 of them still alive, but probably on the verge of death. All of them. But that 70% is not manifested in people going out on the street.
Suzi Weissman: This new poll that you're just beginning to talk about -- we can go back later to the bigger picture of what Netanyahu's survival strategy is, but the poll is really a fascinating window into Israeli public opinion, which seems, well, you can explain it, seems both ambivalent and disillusioned.
Yoav Peled: Well, yes. You see, those 70% don't show up on the street. As you know very well, Saturday night we had a demonstration, like every Saturday night. This time it was a march from the IDF headquarters to the American Embassy. There were several tens of thousands of people in the march, but tens of thousands is not good enough. In order to make a dent, we would need hundreds of thousands. And the hundreds of thousands who support ending the war don't go out on the street because, well, you can think of many reasons why they don't, but they don't. And therefore those demonstrations, impressive as they may look, are not effective.
Suzi Weissman: Well, it's kind of a crazy question to ask you because it's a back handed question, but do you think that either the outcome of this endless war, or maybe the purpose of it, is to finally divide and exhaust public disapproval of what’s going on, whether it's just weekly demonstrations that weary the population? And as you said, they're in the tens of thousands, whereas a year ago, they were in the hundreds of thousands.
Yoav Peled: There were hundreds of thousands before the war. Yes, before the war, when the fight was over what the government euphemistically called judicial reform, and which I would call a constitutional counter-revolution. Since the war, we haven't had hundreds of thousands, because October 7th had a tremendous impact on the consciousness of everyone. October 7th was such a big blow for most Israelis that I think this is the main reason why they don't go out in the same numbers as they did before, when the issue was simply domestic constitutional change.
Suzi Weissman: But then there's this other aspect of it too, and that is, I look at Haaretz newspaper's daily summary and it gives you a count every day what's going on today. And when this is being aired, it's day 660 since the offensive on Gaza began right after, as you said, the horrific attack by Hamas. But now the difference is not only just internally, but externally. Israel is increasingly seen as a pariah state, with many countries in Western Europe now calling this a genocide and other war crimes, and Netanyahu has been charged in the International Criminal Court. But even the Sunday New York Times printed Omer Bartov's big article declaring that, finally, this is a genocide and he's a genocide scholar.
But internally, as you're saying, the demonstrations are not as large as they were before. I'm wondering what you think about the lack of a plan for the day after that Bibi was criticized for at the beginning of the war. Is there increasingly the idea that this is just going to go on forever and it's going to continue to exhaust the population? But also that there's disregard for the hostages being held as they continually attack even areas where they think the hostages are being held? In other words, you said that the October 7th attack and the taking of all of those hostages traumatized Israel, and yet the families are losing patience. How does that figure into this general perception of how the war is being conducted and what Netanyahu is doing?
Yoav Peled: Well, Netanyahu doesn't care about the hostages. Netanyahu doesn't care about anybody or anything except himself, his wife and his son, whom I don't want to characterize. Everybody knows what they are. But I have to point out that the demonstrations, even the ones that are going on, like the march on the U.S. Embassy Saturday night, are meant for the hostages. For most participants they are not to end the war because of what is happening in Gaza. I would guess that most participants in those demonstrations don't really care about what's going on in Gaza. Of course, the Israeli media doesn't give you a full account of what's happening, although some outlets do give you more and more. The Israeli media does represent some of what is happening, but nothing like you get on foreign media outlets. But for most people, this is not the issue. The issue is to get the hostages back.
Suzi Weissman: This a very interesting point that you've just brought up, and you've talked about it before, that Israelis don't really care that much about Palestinians, or don't show empathy for Palestinians. But earlier on there was not that much news about it inside Israel. But as you just indicated, it's more and more evident. And of course, people do have internet and I'm guessing - you tell me -- that the internet is not censored. People have access and are able to see what's going on if they want to.
Yoav Peled: Exactly, if they want to.
Suzi Weissman: Right. And then there's also these horrible reports about prominent settlers and others who are in favor of starvation as a weapon who are okay, with the idea to ethnically cleanse Gaza, as if this will somehow get rid of the problem. So, I want you to talk a little bit more about how you see the various numbers in the poll, because 73% of the public say they support returning all hostages, even if it means ending the war. 52% say they still support returning hostages, even if Hamas remains in power and isn't disarmed.
And then there's also the question of how Israelis see the state that they're in, you know, in terms of international reputation that has suffered and whether or not there's blame? Who do they blame for the war or for the lack of negotiations? What we see here, and it's almost embarrassing that Israeli spokespeople continually blame Hamas for every single thing that happens. They're not getting food. It's because Hamas steals it. That's why they had to do this thing. And it's almost like rote and embarrassing. It doesn't pass the smell test for truth. But how does it work in Israel?
Yoav Peled: Well, 54% of the people who voted for the present coalition government, a slight majority, but a majority nonetheless, say they want the war to end and the hostages to return. So that's one thing. Then the other question is, yes, you're right. The vast majority of Israelis don't care. Many of them are happy with what's happening in Gaza, and many others don't care what's happening in Gaza. And you're right, they blame Hamas for everything. And they have a good argument because October 7th was Hamas’s doing. And the thing was so traumatic, so horrible, that for a lot of people this excuses everything that Israel has done since then and will continue to do, including ethnic cleansing.
And, you know, they all cite this harebrained idea that Trump threw out, you know, the offhand remark, that the Palestinians will leave the Gaza Strip. In Israel this was translated into the "Trump plan." They call it the Trump plan. And they set up an agency to start planning it. That's why they want to concentrate the Palestinians in this euphemistically called humanitarian city in Rafah. And from there send them to where? Now they even have candidate countries to accept them: Indonesia, Libya and Ethiopia. I don’t think these countries are very happy about it. So this is the situation right now.
But I have to say again that you see more and more in the mainstream media skepticism about the whole thing, and the realization that this is Netanyahu's war, or Netanyahu's war for survival. They see that what is the motivation here. And so, yes, this is the situation. And on top of that, you know, the other big issue now is to pass a law that would legally exempt the ultra-Orthodox from serving in the army, while the people who do serve in the army, both regular and reserve, are just exhausted and falling down. In the last two weeks, there were four soldiers who committed suicide because of these pressures. Still, the government, that is Bibi, there's really nobody there, it's a bunch of nobodies. He fights very hard to try to pass this law that would legally exempt the ultra-orthodox and keep his government going.
Suzi Weissman: I was going to ask you about that because we've talked about this many times in the past, including when Netanyahu formed this coalition with the far right in order to stay in power. Now you see that they're leaving the government, and yet Netanyahu is still there. There are no calls, right, for a new election, because there's one that's going to happen. When is it? Next September?
Yoav Peled: October 2026.
Suzi Weissman: October 2026. Okay, so I guess people are just waiting. But is there, and I see also in this poll, since we're still talking about this poll, that Netanyahu received a four point out of ten approval rating for his handling of the hostage crisis. And you've just mentioned the big issue, which is the that there's a shortage of conscripts, clearly, for the Israeli military.
Yoav Peled: Both conscripts and reservists. Yes.
Suzi Weissman: Yes. And that there's also suicides happening and I'm sure we mentioned last time the level of PTSD is, is probably, it's going to be with Israel for a long time to come. So how big of an issue is this, the fact that the military itself is having trouble continuing in this respect, that they have to resort to threatening the coalition by drafting the ultra-Orthodox? Talk a little bit about this so our listeners get a bigger picture of what this means.
Yoav Peled: Well, the military cannot draft the ultra-Orthodox without the government telling them to do that. So they are sending out these orders for the ultra-Orthodox to show up. But nobody believes that anybody will actually show up, because if the government is not behind it, nothing can be done. So the interesting thing is, and here Bibi, not just Bibi, some other politicians too, are torn by a dilemma, because among Bibi's base, a majority want the all ultra-Orthodox to serve.
Because the young people in Bibi's base do serve and they are physically and mentally exhausted and they want the ultra-Orthodox to serve. On the other hand, the ultra-Orthodox, who are vital for his coalition, are saying, if you don't go through with this law, which is the law of they call, euphemistically, the recruitment law, but is really a non-recruitment law, as the media call it. So he's torn between these two things. But for him the important thing is the immediate political situation. And the immediate issue is to keep the coalition, and to keep the coalition he has to placate the ultra-Orthodox parties.
Suzi Weissman: How big of a divide, though, is it in Israel? Is it there a lot of resentment against the ultra-Orthodox because they don't serve?
Yoav Peled: Yes, absolutely. There is a lot of resentment.
Suzi Weissman: And how big of a sector is this? Is this a minor part of the population or…
Yoav Peled: No, it's about 10% of the population. But since they are a young population, because they have tons of kids, they are now 15% of every age cohort that is supposed to be called up. I mean, people at 18, they are 15% of the 18 year olds every year, so it's more than their overall ratio of the population. And, you know, 15% of the cohort that doesn't enlist is a big issue, especially in the current situation.
Suzi Weissman: Feeding on this dissatisfaction that's now extended even to the ultra-Orthodox, not because they're upset about what's happening in Gaza, but because they don't want to be forced to serve in the army, how does that figure into these weekly protests that you see? Who joins the weekly protests? And even though there are far fewer (protestors) than before the war, when there was a gigantic movement against Netanyahu and his corruption, do you think these current protests could be part of some kind of antiwar bloc? Or are they simply about a desperation over the situation with no movement and Netanyahu's staying power?
Yoav Peled: I guess it's not really anti-war, per se. It's anti-war because they realize that the only way to release the hostages is to end the war. If there were no hostages, most of these people would not be against the war. This is my guess, but I think it's a pretty educated guess.
Suzi Weissman: Let me ask you another question about that. How do most Israelis that you see and talk to react to the international position on Israel, where it (Israel) is increasingly seen as a rogue state? Even Jews who are in the forefront of the pro-Palestinian movement in Europe and the United States are openly saying this war is genocidal, more than ethnic cleansing. How do people react to that?
Yoav Peled: Well, the people I talk to are, you know, reacting like you would react. Since most of the people that I talk to are academics, they are concerned about “will I be accepted to this conference or that conference,” and so on. So people like that are very much aware and in general this whole protest movement before the war, but also during the war, is made up of the middle class and upper middle class and professional elite. These are the people who protest and very, very few religious people. Very, very few.
Suzi Weissman: So all right, well, there was an interesting piece today by the liberal Ezra Klein, host of the New York Times' Ezra Klein Show, who's arguing -- and this is an American perception, but after New York City has overwhelmingly elected Zohran Mamdani, who is a non-Zionist, we can say that this election and this war and these protests have made clear that there's a generational divide among American Jews. Until recently most Jews were Democrats, and they were supportive of Israel, with some criticism. But they were Zionist and supportive of it. But that's now come to an end.
Ezra Klein is saying there can no longer be that -- Jews can no longer be both liberal and support the state of Israel, because it's an illiberal state, and that these two values, Liberalism and Zionism, just don't fit together anymore. Another writer, Shaul Magid, has written that what Israel is doing to Gaza could be seen as the equivalent of the destruction of the Second Temple, forcing a complete transformation of what it means to be Jewish. Given the public attitudes that you've expressed about Israeli society, I wonder how that would go down in Israel if they understood the crisis that this war is creating for Jewry internationally.
Yoav Peled: Well, again, you know, some people are understanding, and these are the people who are connected to this liberal Jewish American milieu, which is to say that most Israelis either don't know or don't care about it. Of course, they do care about the fact that it's become unpleasant for Israeli tourists to go to many countries. Here and there there are incidents where Israeli tourists are mistreated verbally or sometimes even physically. And this makes a lot of news, but that's only because of the inconvenience of limiting the horizon of where you can go as a tourist. The real core issue of what it does to Israel’s standing in the world which they brush off as anti-Semitism. You know, everyone who is not for us is an anti-Semite. That goes without saying. In general, in the Israeli public and in the Israeli media, there is no differentiation at all between anti-Israel and anti-Semite. It's just one and the same thing.
Suzi Weissman: And that's been surprisingly successful internationally, too. That started, as we've already talked about in previous interviews, Yoav, that definition managed to cost Jeremy Corbyn the UK election and get him kicked out of the Labour Party. It's been increasingly the case here too. It's the basis of attacks on higher education in general and Harvard and Columbia and other institutions in particular. The pro-Palestinian movement, led primarily by Jews, is now called anti-Semitic. This has been surprisingly successful. And really, I think puzzlingly so as well. But I wonder how long you think that definition can hold. The other part of it is that Israel was founded in many ways because of the Holocaust, as a home for refugees, for those who survived the Holocaust. That has been such a primary part of its narrative. I'm wondering if you think that that narrative will continue in Israel given the sort of genocidal politics that Israel is committing now against Palestinians.
Yoav Peled: You can't compare. If you compare the two, you know, that's the end of you. You cannot compare. This is unique and this has nothing to do with what's happening in Gaza. For most Israelis, what's happening in Gaza is a just war. It's a just war because of the October 7th attack. So no matter what happens, that is something totally different than what happened in the Holocaust.
Suzi Weissman: I'm not saying, let me just correct this, because I'm not saying that it's the equivalent, but I'm saying that because everybody knows the Holocaust is unique and that the scale is beyond even conception. But there is the use of collective punishment, and it appears to be agreeable, essentially, that it would be okay to expel the Palestinians, the rest of the Palestinians, from Gaza if there's a place where they can be dislocated. You have Holocaust studies experts now saying that this war is genocidal and that this tarnishes even the notion that Israel claims for itself, as you know, with the Holocaust as the central part of its founding.
Yoav Peled: Really, it does everywhere but in Israel itself. Not everywhere, because some countries are totally supportive, but let's say in the, let's call it the Western world, there it works the way you just said, but not in Israel. In Israel, it doesn't work that way at all. And (genocide and Holocaust scholar) Omer Bartov writes in The New York Times and in Haaretz. How many people in Israel read The New York Times and Haaretz together? And of those who read, not everybody agrees with him, of course. So this is really not a big issue.
Suzi Weissman: Okay. All right. So given that, and you said that there's going to be another election in October 2026.
Yoav Peled: Maybe earlier, maybe earlier.
Suzi Weissman: Because you mean they could force the resignation of the government? No confidence in the government because two partners of the coalition, have left the coalition?
Yoav Peled: They haven't really left. It's kind of a fake leaving because they say they left, but the Knesset now goes into recess until after the High Holidays, so it doesn't mean anything. Then we'll see what happens. I don't think the chances are high, but there's a lot of speculation that the elections will come earlier than October 2026.
Suzi Weissman: But if they do, and given Netanyahu's overall rating, which the last time we spoke had gone up because of his success. Before you answer that question, let's talk about his military offensive outside of Gaza, because that's very important to his standing both in Israel and elsewhere. And what we've seen is regional escalation. First, we saw Netanyahu extending the war to the West Bank, where settlers are killing Palestinians with impunity, leading even to Mike Huckabee, who's the ambassador to Israel and a Christian Zionist now very upset because an American Palestinian was beaten to death by settlers. So it's at least calling a little bit of attention to that.
But more importantly, we saw last year that Netanyahu arrogantly and importantly perpetrated an act of state terror with the pager bombings that killed 3500 or so Lebanese members of Hezbollah, but probably others as well. The aim was to defeat the Hezbollah leadership. And then doing the land grab in Syria after the collapse of the Assad regime. Of course, the coup de gras was bombing Iran. And that seemed to be to sabotage Trump's renegotiating a nuclear deal with Iran. Again, this goes back to the very first thing that I asked you, that the last thing that Netanyahu apparently wants is peace, because that undermines his standing. How do you see all of that?
Yoav Peled: Well, Bibi definitely doesn't want peace. But the question of Iran is complicated. There are two, let's say, schools of thought about Iran. And I'm talking only about serious people who are holding these two schools of thought. I'm not talking about propaganda. One says that Iran was really on the verge of something, probably blowing up a nuclear device. Still far from a bomb, but a device. And other people, including at least one American intelligence agency, because Trump frightened all the others, said Iran was 2 or 3 years away from being able to do that. So since there are serious people on both sides,
I don't find myself in a position to decide, although I tend to believe the ones who say 2 or 3 years, but I cannot say it with any confidence, because maybe the other side is correct. And in that case, then you could see the Iranians were stalling on the negotiations with the US, and maybe they were. Well, it's their nature to stall, but maybe they were stalling in order to get even closer to their ability to explode this device or be very, very close to it. In this case, it's hard for me to say anything clear about whether there was a legitimate motive for the bombing or not.
Suzi Weissman: Okay. That's acceptable, but I think it still fits into the general narrative that it wasn't in Israel's favor for the United States to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran.
Yoav Peled: Israel meaning Bibi, there's no Israel. There's only Bibi and he was against it, of course.
Suzi Weissman: And Bibi, let's just call him Bibi. He's had the same speech for 20 years about the danger of Iran and possibly even more.
Yoav Peled: 30 years.
Suzi Weissman: 30. I was going to say possibly even 30. Yes, this has been a sort of mantra of his, to destroy Iran and to destroy any enemy of Israel. And speaking about his popular support and whether it's gone up or down, I would have imagined that his efforts in both Lebanon and killing the leaders of Hezbollah and then taking out, or perhaps at least damaging the nuclear facilities in Iran, were popular and would do well for him. Is that the case?
Yoav Peled: Very, very little. People were surprised. Likud’s standing in the polls rose very, very marginally. And you saw that in this recent poll he gets four – it’s like in American terms an F – for his handling of the hostage crisis. Right. So this is what his standing is even now. There was a little bit of an uptick right after what they described as a huge victory over Iran, but it was small and then it declined and went back down.
Suzi Weissman: The other side of it is that it appears that Israel's enemies have shown more restraint, even though the attack on Iran did provoke an Iranian attack on Israel. Can you talk a little bit about what that was like living in Tel Aviv? Did you have sirens all the time. Or was this restricted to other areas?
Yoav Peled: It was very much concentrated in Tel Aviv, and this was nothing like we experienced before. In order to be safe we ran several times a night to an underground parking structure that, luckily, is across the street from us, because we don't have the shelter room that new apartments have, since our house is 100 years old. But luckily, across the street we have this underground parking structure that goes three floors underground. And we, and a lot of people from the neighborhood went to the second level underground.
This happened for 12 days, several times a day, mostly at night. So it was very, very noticeable. The closest one to hit near us was about ten minutes’ walk from us, probably aimed at the American Embassy. It didn't affect our house, but we heard the explosion two levels underground. We heard the explosion of that one very, very loudly. So yes, it had a great impact, not only in Tel Aviv, but Tel Aviv and several military bases and a big hospital in Beersheba and the Weizmann Institute, which is Israel's top research university, that was largely demolished, and so on.
Suzi Weissman: Well, that war lasted -- if it's a war, for 12 days. It's over now. But what did it do? For what? How is it perceived now? You showed me the poll. We've talked about the poll. Bibi still gets an F, but is there a sort of division? He gets an F for Gaza? But his action on Iran is higher, perhaps?
Yoav Peled: The F was for the hostages. So at the beginning, maybe his standing with respect to Iran, maybe it was higher, but more, you know, at the beginning when Trump said, we obliterated Iran's nuclear capability and so on. But gradually the reports started coming out that this is not exactly the case, that Iran can recover its nuclear capability pretty easily and pretty quickly.
And, by the way, who says this war is over? It's not at all certain that it's over. The Iranians, it is reported, are determined to avenge that. We saw that they can do that, and that they are very effective. They have a very good learning curve, because their hits were improved, improved from their point of view, during those 12 days, because they learned how to do this, they learned how to avoid the Israeli defense missiles and so on. So I'm not at all sure that this war is over. By the way, we thank Trump for stopping it after 12 days, because, you know the story about the 52 fighter planes that were over Tehran ready to drop bombs, and Trump ordered Bibi to call them back. This was in the last day. So we're very grateful to Trump for that. We cannot deny that.
Suzi Weissman: In other words, you're saying that Bibi ordered a new attack on Iran.
Yoav Peled: Well, it was a retaliatory attack because Iran, shortly before the ceasefire, very, very shortly before the ceasefire, was supposed to take effect, had its most devastating attack. Bibi was going to respond to that with a much bigger attack on Tehran. And because of the time difference, Trump was asleep. When he woke up, the planes were over Tehran already. People say it was 2 or 3 minutes before dropping the bombs. That's when Trump said “they don't know what the fuck they are doing." He ordered Bibi to call them back, and he did.
Suzi Weissman: How is it perceived now that Bibi is attacking Syria, ostensibly to protect the Druze community? But I guess the question that I'm asking is whether or not, and you do say that those who demonstrate represent the middle class and those who are already more liberal, but is there a sentiment that there has to be other kinds of solutions, more diplomatic ones, rather than constantly attacking militarily? Or is that not part of the conversation?
Yoav Peled: No, it is part of the conversation, of course, in that sector of the population that you just mentioned. Of course, this sector of the population gets a very high representation in the media, and we have a number of retired generals who all along said that even if this war is just, and even if the war makes sense, there has to be a political solution at the end. Most of them have already been saying for months that it should have ended then, and some kind of a political solution found. So, yes, this opinion gets a lot of coverage in the mainstream media. Among the population, again, 70% support that, but they are not committed to that enough to do something about it.
Suzi Weissman: But is there a sense that, you know, we started at the very beginning about whether or not Bibi is fighting in Gaza and elsewhere to extend his own power, to prevent peace rather than to achieve it. Do you see this as the ruling group in Israel protecting itself from the growing discontent by distracting the population? For example, how is the attack on Syria perceived? Is that seen as something that was a retaliation or just an offensive?
Yoav Peled: Well, there were two stages of the attack on Syria. One was after Jolani took power and then Israel attacked to destroy whatever was left of the Syrian army so that Jolani would not be able to use it against Israel. What's happening recently is an attack on the major concentration of the Druze population in southern Syria, and the Druze in Israel were very mad about it and were pushing the government to react. Again here, who knows what the motive is. Part of the motive was really the pressure of the Druze. You know, the Druze, unlike the ultra-orthodox Jews, do serve in the military and some of them reach very senior positions. So you have to listen to them. On the other hand, you can never deny the element of trying to grab more land, which historically has been the policy on many fronts. So it's hard to tell, but it's probably some kind of a combination of both.
Suzi Weissman: So this takes us back again to looking at the kind of contradictions that are opening up in Israel. We see that support for Netanyahu has waned, that he gets an overall bad rating. And yet he remains in power. And now you're saying that it's possible that there could be a vote of no confidence in an election before October 2026, but in any case, there will be elections in October. What are his chances of surviving that kind of an election?
Yoav Peled: Well, Bibi is a political magician, as we all know. He got out of very, very tough situations before, and I don't think that anyone can predict. I think one issue that we haven't talked about is the Arab political parties, which are under huge attack. As you probably know, they tried to expel from the Knesset the chairman of the Communist Party, who's, naturally, an Arab. They failed, but a lot of people, even from the liberal opposition, voted to expel him.
Suzi Weissman: On what basis?
Yoav Peled: On the basis that he said something that compared the release of Israeli hostages with the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons. And he said he's happy about both, you see. But if you say that you're happy about both in the same breath, then you're, you know, a supporter of HAMAS.
Suzi Weissman: Something else about these other political parties. But also just on that issue, because the question of exchange of hostages for Palestinians in Israeli prisons is part of the negotiations. So what are you saying about that, that Israelis don't support that, they don't want them exchanged?
Yoav Peled: They support it, but they call them terrorists. They don’t in any way think that they should be compared to the hostages who were kidnapped, you know, on October 7th. To some extent, it is true, because those people were totally innocent civilians, most of them. Some were soldiers who were kidnaped from their beds while they were at home.
Suzi Weissman: Or at a rock concert!
Yoav Peled: At the rock concert. But the Palestinian prisoners, regardless of how strong the evidence against them was, there was clearly at least for most of them some involvement in something. And they went through some kind of trial, you know. But to say that comparing the two, or being happy about the release of both, means you're a traitor to the State of Israel and therefore cannot serve in the Knesset, that’s something else. But the broader issues is that I think there's going to be a move to not allow the Arab political parties to run in the next elections.
Suzi Weissman: This will, of course, amplify even more, internationally, the notion that Israel is apartheid. So let's talk about which parties and what is the Liberal opposition saying about all of this?
Yoav Peled: Well, unfortunately, most of the so-called liberal opposition doesn’t have any problem with it, even though it means that it will never win an election, because without those Arab parties the liberals can never win an election. There have been attempts before to disqualify this or that or two Arab parties from competing in the elections, but then the Supreme Court always restored them. But now we have a Supreme Court that is much more right-wing than it used to be. Court packing is one of the strategies, you know, of populist regimes (as when you look at your own Supreme Court), and they were pretty successful. So now it is more conservative and much weaker and cowardly than it used to be. Maybe there is a good chance that once the one, 2 or 3 Arab political parties are disqualified, and this time the Supreme Court would not restore them to the race. I think this is a real possibility.
Suzi Weissman: This, as you're talking about it in your book, The Religionization of Israeli Society, is a very key factor of creating a very different alignment in Israeli politics. But is there any sign now, because of the disaffection that we're seeing and, and showing in the polls, that there is some kind of realignment politically happening?
Yoav Peled: Realignment in what sense?
Suzi Weissman: Well, I mean, what about, because we've seen the far right divided, I guess not just the far right. They've left the government over this question of the ultra-Orthodox serving. But is there any political realignment, let's say, among voters or within the security establishment over the general situation and the conduct of the war and everything that we've been talking about?
Yoav Peled: Well, Bibi was very successful in taming the security organizations. You know, he got rid of the former chief of staff of the IDF, he got rid of the former head of the Shin Bet, the head of Mossad just went to Washington to discuss this ethnic cleansing with Witkoff. And the current chief of staff of the IDF is very much Bibi's patsy. So the security organizations are now securely in his hands.
Suzi Weissman: But with growing opposition outside, of former members of the security establishment?
Yoav Peled: These people are mostly ten or more years out of the system. It's a very different generation. And among the political opposition, again, there's hardly anyone that I would even call liberal, except this one guy. You know, the Labor Party changed its name. Now it's the Democratic Party. Right. And it's headed by another retired general, Yair Golan, who was the deputy chief of staff of the IDF and was sure to become the chief of staff. This was some time ago.
But he said in a speech, when he was the deputy chief, sure to become the chief, he said in his speech on Holocaust Remembrance Day that he identified in Israel processes that reminded him of Germany in the 30s. Because of that, he lost the chieftainship of the IDF. Now he heads this Democratic Party, and they get in the polls about ten seats in the next Knesset. This is the only party that I would even call liberal. All the other ones are, you know, not even that.
Suzi Weissman: So, how many seats in the Knesset do they have, the Labor or so-called Democratic Party?
Yoav Peled: In the polls they have about ten seats in the House. Right now they have only four.
Suzi Weissman: Okay.
Yoav Peled: Four, which is the minimum you can get.
Suzi Weissman: And by renaming themselves the Democratic Party, is this going to increase support? What effect do you think it will have?
Yoav Peled: They united with this party that didn't make it into the Knesset last time, the most liberal party in Israel, called Meretz. So the two united and I think their poll numbers increased because of this guy Golan. Of course, he's a Zionist and he's a military man and so on, but he really, truly expresses liberal positions on every issue, most pointedly on the issue of the war. So I think that's the reason why their support increased. But again, you know, 10, 12, is around 10% of the Knesset. So what does that mean?
Suzi Weissman: Yes. Well, how much does the far right represent, the parties that Netanyahu needed in order to stay in power?
Yoav Peled: Well, it depends on who you define, who you call the hard right. Let's say Netanyahu's current coalition at its highest point had 68. In order to govern, you need 61. Now, with all this fake leaving of the ultra-Orthodox parties, it has 49, I think, or 50. But that doesn't really mean anything because they're not going to bring him down, even if they wanted to. The Knesset goes into recess at the end of the week. But they don't really want to bring him down. So it's pretty much a show. The fact that they left is pretty much a show. So he's secure. At least until the next elections he is secure.
Suzi Weissman: And is there any question within Likud of changing leadership or is that completely out of the question?
Yoav Peled: The Likud’s so-called leadership is a bunch of nobodies. Bibi worked very, very hard to remove anybody who could be a potential threat or even a potential successor. So it's really a bunch of nobodies. That's why I'm saying there's no government, there's no Israel, there's only Bibi.
Suzi Weissman: It's amazing. All right. So let's go then to the liberal opposition, since you said we didn't talk enough about the political parties. Yair Lapid is still the head of the liberals. Yes?
Yoav Peled: His official title is head of the opposition. But in the polls he gets, I don't know, 4 or 5 seats, or something like that.
Suzi Weissman: Give us a panorama of the parties that will contest the new election and what kind of support they have.
Yoav Peled: Well, on the right we have, of course, Likud. We have Ben Gvir’s party that also has around ten seats in the polls. The other guy, Smotrich, is not getting in at all according to the polls. And then you have the ultra-orthodox. The ultra-orthodox have about 20 together. You know, there is a Sephardic and an Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox, but they are separate. They have together about 20 seats. And on the other side it's a range of parties, beginning from a hard-right party in the opposition, Avigdor Lieberman's party. Lieberman is a fierce right winger. He's a fierce right winger, but he hates Bibi, so he's in the opposition.
Then you have Naftali Bennett, who was formerly Prime Minister. He was prime minister when his party had only 6 seats . Now he heads a virtual party, which doesn't exist yet, except in the polls. It exists only in the polls, and it's the leading party. He gets more than Likud, a few more than Likud. 22-25 each of them gets.
And then you have this right wing, but let's call it maybe a little moderate, moderately right wing party, headed by this guy Benny Gantz, another former chief of the IDF general staff, who some years ago had some 30 seats in the polls. But he's, it's very unpleasant to say, not too smart. So he twice saved Bibi’s ass. Can I say ass on KPFK? He saved Bibi’s ass twice when Bibi was really on the ground, and he promised him all kinds of things, which everybody knew he was not going to fulfill, except this Gantz. So now he's barely showing in the polls.
And then there's Lapid, who is a little bit above not getting in. He's getting in securely with very few seats in the polls. And then there is this Democrats with Yair Golan, which is the largest party in the opposition, not including the right-wing opposition of Lieberman. So among the ones who could even remotely be called liberal, Yair Golan is leading. Okay, this is the picture.
Suzi Weissman: So let me ask you then, finally, because we will be running out of time here. But I want to know the main issues around which parties are organizing now? How important is the endless war issue, the occupation issue? How important is the authoritarian politics of Netanyahu and his increasing fight against democratic rights, including the judiciary and his own trial? What we're really asking is what are the main contradictions and issues that might create newer coalitions in this next election?
Yoav Peled: The two main issues are, first of all, the war and then what they call the judicial reform, which is really a constitutional coup d'état. These are the two main issues.
Suzi Weissman: And what about clericalism? I was going to ask about the religionization. How does that have any position on the issues that we're discussing here. Authoritarianism, the judicial coup and occupation?
Yoav Peled: Well, the occupation is not an issue, has not been an issue since the year 2000. That's not an issue in Israeli politics. Clericalism is only about this military service. Everybody is mad about the ultra-Orthodox not serving in the military, but if and when the time comes and this supposedly liberal opposition parties are close to being able to form a government, and the ultra-Orthodox would be willing to join them, they will take them and they will give them everything they want. Just like Bibi is trying to do.
Suzi Weissman: Well, I guess that really gives us the kind of big picture that I had hoped for, Yoav. As always, not much light, but at least I think things will get more interesting as we move toward the election in Israel. Of course, at that point, I'm going to ask you to come back to explain it all. Any final thoughts?
Yoav Peled: Well, the final thought is that both of our countries are ruled by this type of character, which I don't want to characterize, because free speech is now under attack, too. But we all know what kind of characters they are, and the two of them together are creating a disaster for us. Maybe upon you, too, but upon us it's much more a matter of life and death.
Suzi Weissman: No, it's a disaster here, too. Especially right here in the city of Los Angeles, where Trump is under siege. But of course, it doesn't affect most people. But for immigrants, it's an entirely different story. So, yes, it's a terrible alliance. And we have to include Putin in this part as well, who is waging war in Ukraine. But on the other hand, I think there's some divisions that we can talk about at another point because Trump has his own policies and does seem to want to stop the wars. And so in that, in that way, he comes into conflict. And, and here, I guess you could finally just say that the tail is wagging the dog. And most people disregarded it. Netanyahu and Putin are the junior partners that do very much try to wag the dog. They're the tails that try to wag the dog. In Putin's case, by delaying any negotiations. And in Netanyahu's, by trying to prevent any deal with Iran.
Yoav Peled: Right, or with HAMAS.
Suzi Weissman: Or with Hamas. Yes, yes, it's a terrible situation. Yoav, thank you so much for joining us yet again on the show. Thank you. And we'll talk to you soon.
Yoav Peled: Thank you.
Suzi Weissman: All right. Okay. So we'll end it there. Wow. You know, I'm always looking for some hopeful note, but I guess it's hard to find it in Israel. And it's hard to find it here, too. Although here at least we have, you know, a huge mobilization. We don't have a political expression for it. You know, as a party, the Democrats are horrific. But you do see giant opposition to what Trump is doing, including now even among Republicans who do not want to see these wholesale deportations.
And, you know, ICE running around the streets with masks on. Now with this big bill, you know, they've got a huge infusion of money. And my daughter was looking at the recruitment. They said that every ICE agent has to have a college degree. The starting wage is higher than teachers. If they're going to try to recruit so many, they're not going to be, you know, that particular about who comes in. This part is very scary.
Yoav Peled: Yes. Right.
Suzi Weissman: All right. Well, good to talk to you.
Yoav Peled: Yes. Thank you.