The Middle East remains the most conflicted region in the world today. Under the Trump administration, US foreign policy in the MENA region has echoed the president’s chaotic domestic policy. While there are positives in relations being established between the UAE, other Gulf Arab states, Morocco and Israel, these ties had already existed de facto prior to their formalization. Trump’s imposition of sanctions on Iran could be viewed as curtailing a disruptive state in the region, but was offset by US withdrawal from the JCPOA.
Joe Biden in Saudi Arabia in 2011
As the Biden administration takes office next month, how should it approach these problems? Can the US make a positive contribution to ending or at least minimizing conflict in the Middle East? Or will the myriad domestic problems Biden inherits from the Trump administration, such as the Covid-19 epidemic and widespread economic dislocation, curtail US efforts in the region?
If the US is to have a positive impact, the following is a list of “hot button” issues which the Biden administration will have to address the MENA region’s crises. While I have chosen 10 critical areas of focus which should be on everyone’s list, any number of other issues could be added to the region’s problems which need attention.
Nuclear weapons and the possibility of regional war.
As recent months have demonstrated, tensions between the US and Iran have greatly increased. The killing of IRGC commander, Qassem Suleimani, last January and Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhirzadeh, last month, have poured more oil on the fire. The sale of highly sophisticated US fighter aircraft to the UAE, a visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the Saudi capital, Riyad, and threats of a possible Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities have further ramped up tensions.
The first and second priorities of the Biden administration must be lowering tensions between Iran, Saudi Arabia and its Arab Gulf neighbors and preventing the outbreak of a regional war. The best way to begin that process is to engage the European Union and the United Nations so that the approach the US adopts towards Iran doesn’t replicate the unilateral and disastrous “America First” foreign policy of the Trump administration.
Lifting the current sanctions imposed on the Tehran regime must involve Iran’s ending its uranium enrichment program beyond what was allowed by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed by Iran, the US and other states in 2015. Iran should also agree to withdraw active fighting forces from Syria and dissolve its proxy militias in Iraq which effectively control the country politically and economically.
Will Iran agree to these conditions? The odds are that it will because regime survival is the highest priority among the Tehran mullahs. Should it refuse to agree to come in line with the JCPOA and reduce its military, political and economic footprint in Syria and Iraq, the sanctions will continue and the Iranian economy will continue its free fall. Facing an already highly discontent populace, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ailing, and contestation between moderates and radical in the state apparatus on the rise, it make sense for Iran to choose a road which will allow it to avoid further economic and political instability which could threaten its future viability.
Regional war and the spread of terrorism
A second area of concern is the spread of regional wars in Syria, Yemen and Libya. Left unattended, these conflict could further metastasize as they have done so already. The Syrian civil war has impacted all its neighbors, the Yemen War has intensified the struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia and threatens the Horn of Africa while the Libya conflict has become another are of conflict among regional states. In all 3 conflicts, terrorist organizations have been the beneficiaries.
In the short term, none of these conflicts can be solved in any definitive manner. However, the US can work with international a regional partners to stabilize each one by working to end violence and set the stage for future negotiations to bring the conflicts to an end.
The Syrian civil war requires the international community’s attention, not the “hands off”. approach of the Trump administration. While the conflict is infinitely complex, allowing it to continue poses threats to all its neighbors and provides fertile soil for the spread of terrorist groups. The Islamic State may have lost its “Caliphate” – namely the large amount of territory it once held – but it remains a clear threat as ongoing attacks in eastern Syria and north central Iraq make clear.
The US should begin by reestablishing its support for the Kurds of northeast Syria who were instrumental in helping the international community defeat the Islamic State. The Syrian Democratic Forces should be supported by additional US forces who can serve in a training capacity and arms. Turkish President Erdogan should be informed in no uncertain terms that the US will not allow attacks by his proxies, some of which are hardened radical Islamists, against the Rojava Kurds.
Not only will supporting the Rojava Kurds work to prevent the IDS from reestablishing its base of operations in eastern Syria but it will likewise prevent the regime of Bashar al-Asad from gaining control of the area. In the past, the Asad regime has treated the Kurds in a brutal manner. Also, the international community should make sure the regime doesn’t regain access to the oil reserves located in eastern Syria.
Russia continues to support the Asad regime and its genocidal policies towards its own citizens. Erdogan will continue to support Islamist forces in Syria. Units of Iran’s IRGC are stationed in Syria. In other words, forcing the Asad regime to change its policies an come to the negotiating table is not possible in the current context.
Nevertheless, the US, working with the European Union, should increase sanctions on the Asad regime. Bashar al-Asad has made it abundantly clear that his regime will make no concessions and that his only policy is the use of force. In this context, regime change is the only manner in which the Syrian civil war will eventually be brought to an end. Cutting off regime access to international finance is the only tool which the US and its European allies have at the moment. The more intense these sanctions on the regime, the greater the probability that the regime will fall, either by economic collapse or an internal coup d’état.
The United nations has declared the Yemen War the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. The Biden administration should tell Saudi Arabia that its bombing of the country must stop immediately. Because the UAE has already withdrawn its support for the war, the US can leverage the sale of advanced US fighter aircraft to entice the UAE to play a mediating role to have the Saudi regime likewise withdraw from the conflict. In return, the Houthi forces must commit to a ceasefire in anticipation of an internationally brokered peace conference organized under the auspices of the UN.
Libya is a failed state. At the moment, there are few options available to end the conflict. However, the US can urge the European Union, which has a strong interest in bringing a modicum of stability to Libya, to become more active in trying to establish a stable ceasefire among contending forces. Italy has historic ties to Libya as well as strong commercial interests through its hydrocarbon firm ENI. Establishing a quota of distributing oil revenues could become the basis for creating a stable ceasefire, thereby setting the stage for future negotiations over the status of a federated nation-state.
Reigning in human rights abusers in the Middle East
The MENA region is, unfortunately, known for regimes which engage in massive human rights abuses. Syria and Iran are beyond US and international influence. Assuming Biden’s declarations are serious, his administration will be able to assert a human rights agenda in the Middle East among 3 of the most egregious offenders, Saudi ruler Muhammad Bin Salman, Egyptian president, ‘Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi, and Turkish president Recip Tayyip Erdogan.
First, publicizing its displeasure, through a reorganized and more robust US Department of State, the Biden administration can highlight its discontent with human rights abuses. For example, the imprisonment, including solitary confinement, torture, and sexual harassment of Lujain Halhoul, a Saudi female dissident whose only “crime” was driving an automobile from the UAE to Riyad, and accusing her of threatening Saudi Arabia’s “national security,” is an affront to international norms of human rights and the rule of law.
In Egypt, the imprisonment of thousands of human rights activists is likewise unacceptable for a nation-state which seeks to remain a close ally of the United States. The failure of the al-Sisi regime to pursue the horrific torture, burning and killing in Cairo of Giulio Regeni, a 28 year old Italian PH.D. student from Cambridge University, who was studying the Egyptian labor movement, is itself unacceptable and points to what many Egyptians have experienced at the hands of his regime. Such behavior cannot be treated as “business as usual” under a Biden administration.
In Turkey, President Erdogan continues to imprison anyone who challenges his authority. Indeed, Turkey has one of the highest rates of imprisonment for journalists in the world. As freedom of expression continues to be suppressed in Turkey, resulting in the dismissal of university faculty and teachers who are not considered loyal to the Erdogan regime, human rights continue to be abused. Critics of the regime continue to be deprived of the rule of law. Sanctioning Turkey if such repressive conditions continue should be an option taken under consideration by the incoming Biden administration. Because Turkey’s economy is weak, the threat of withholding future financial aid can also be used to force Erdogan to back down from his repressive policies.
Fighting the spread of terrorism
Preventing the spread of terrorism in the Middle East presents a huge challenge. While the IUS was defeated in Syria and Iraq, it still uses “sleeper” cells to mount attacks in these 2 countries and to organize terrorist attacks outside the Middle East in Europe and elsewhere. It has spawned affiliates in central Africa, Afghanistan and many other countries. In Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, a “branch” of the IS continues to mount attacks against tourists and Egyptian security forces.
A new approach is needed if terrorism is to be controlled and eventually defeated in the MENA region. This policy must offer youth who are attracted to terrorist groups alternatives to becoming part of extremist violence. While I will address this issue in a future post, based on my current research for an ongoing book project, the Biden administration should convene an international conference on the problem of terrorism with the aim to creating new international entities which will seek to find solutions. Let me just note that, if youth eschewed joining terrorist organizations, they would lose their raison d’étre and “die on the vine.”
Gender empowerment
One of the most disturbing aspects of MENA region countries is the degree to which women have failed to attain positions of power and influence in the public sphere. The conflict which rages in many parts of the Middle East has only further curtailed women’s ability to make important societal contributions apart from the family and the private sphere. Violence has forced women to marry earlier and forego higher education in an effort to assure their protection and rape and sexual harassment have been a by-product of civil strife.
Only among the Rojava Kurds do we find a society in the Middle East where women have assumed somewhat of a parity with men in the public sphere. The UAE has appointed women to ministerial posts but it is still unclear whether they enjoy any independent power in decision-making.
MENA region societies suffer because women often are unable to transfer the skills they learn in university education into a career. In many of the region’s universities, women comprise 60-70% of the student body. However, only a small percentage are able to convert their degree into meaningful employment. As numerous studies have shown, this has led to the loss of billions of dollars in GNP due to the lack of effective use of female human resources.
Women’s status in the MENA region is also apparent in the persistence of so-called “honor crimes” and female genital mutilation (FGM) which occurs in certain countries of the region. Sadly, many honor crimes “blame the victim,” e.g., in incidents where a woman is raped and then killed by her family to eliminate the “shame” brought on it. As indicated by Egypt’s “Harass Map,” sexual harassment is a daily hurdle which confronts all too many Egyptian women. https://harassmap.org/en/
Protecting democratization
Although the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011 and after failed to bring about the desired transition to democracy in most of the states in which demonstrations occurred, Tunisia was the exception to the rule. Since 2011,. Tunisia has experienced 3 election cycles and power has been transferred across party lines and ideologies. Nevertheless, large numbers of Tunisian youth remain unemployed and are increasingly disillusioned with democracy as a form of governance.
In the Sudan, a joint-civilian military council exists which is tasked with implementing a transition from military rule to democracy within the next 3 years. Like Tunisia, Sudan is experiencing economic challenges which could be used as an excuse to abort the transition. in both cases, the US should diligently pursue aid packages to provide economic relief.
One way to help both societies is to provide funds for youth social entrepreneurship (discussed in more detail below). Already, the Tunisian government has created conditions designed to make it easier for youth to establish social entrepreneurial ventures, e.g., by allowing social entrepreneurs to open foreign currency accounts. In both cases, the Biden administration needs to make clear to the powers that be that economic assistance is contingent on maintaining democracy in Tunisia and the transition to democracy in the Sudan.
Iraq has held national parliamentary elections and parliamentary elections in the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG). Provincial elections have also been held. On the whole, these elections have been deemed to be fair and free. The problem in Iraq is not so much the electoral process, but that elections are controlled by a small set of highly corrupt political coalitions. Iraq is currently suffering from the drop in global oil prices caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
To reign in its massive corruption, the US should press the current Iraqi government of Prime Minister, Mustafa al-Khadhimi, to ensure that the early parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2021 are fair and free, and that they allow new political parties to participate in them. Any US support for international financial aid requested by Iraq’s government should be tied to the holding of open elections next year.
Youth and civic engagement
Youth constoitue a large percentage of the population in many nation-states in the MENA region. Unfor tately, they have suffered from the prevalence of authoritarian rule in the Middle East. This is particularly evident in the state-run education systems which forbid critical thinking. Not only does this squash creative energy which could be used for national social and economic development but it curtails civic consciousness and engagement as well. Indeed, the concept of citizenship is rarely discussed. When it is defined, the definition is one of the citizen maintaining absolute loyalty to those who rule the nation-state.
One goal of the Biden administration should be to work with responsive countries in the Middle East which are willing to provide more resources for youth, thereby giving a feeling of hope in the future.
In few countries in the MENSA region has the state made youth a priority. The UAE is one exception although political participation dissent are not allowed. While the Biden administration cannot inject itself int the domestic politics in countries of the region, it can offer scholarships to MENA region youth to participate in leadership programs under the auspices of the US Department of State. In these short-term programs, youth can learn civic leadership skills which can translate onto positive developments once they return to their home countries.
Because these programs would affect a limited number of youth, the US should consider how to help less fortunate youth. One way would be to provide seed money through the USAID and other agencies to development youth centers in poor urban neighborhoods. Such centers already exist in poor areas of Cairo, Egypt where they are provided by private NGOs, e.g.. You Think Green – Egypt. Sports, mentoring and a focus on inculcating moderate understandings of Islam. Such centers could be replicated in many MENA region countries. Indeed, youth have already taken it on themselves to create them, not in Egypt, but in Iraq and elsewhere.
However, the most effective strategy to help youth would entail the Biden administration mobilizing US foundations and corporations, and their corresponding institutions in European countries known for their foreign policy largesse. such as Germany, Norway, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands, to promote youth social entrepreneurship.
At Rutgers University, I direct the Youth, Social Entrepreneurship and Sustainable Development project which works to promote youth social entrepreneurial ventures in the MENA region and Pakistan. Almost all MENA region economies require diversification, especially those which still are dominated by state-run public sector firms. Social entrepreneurship offers youth the opportunity to be creative, promotes civic engagement and offers youth an income over the long term if their ventures are successful. This is a topic which I will discuss in greater detail in a subsequent post.
Combating radical Islamism
The United States has failed to effectively use one of its most powerful resources. This resource is its large and vibrant Muslim community. To date, the US has not asked Muslim clerics and their followers to serve in a cultural outreach capacity to demonstrate that there is no Western plot, contrary to terrorist claims, to “destroy Islam.” Many of my Muslim friends and colleagues argue that there is more freedom to worship and express their religious views in the United States than in their heritage countries.
In resorting to this form of “public diplomacy,” the US needs to actively involve not only clerics and older Muslims, but Muslim youth. Competitions should be organized to offer these youth the opportunity to develop their own satellite television programs and creatively use social media to spread the message that the US is not an “anti-Muslim” society. Yes, anti-Muslim sentiments exist, and such (minority) sentiments were used by Donald Trump for political purposes through his infamous “Muslim ban,” but the US is generally a country where religious freedom is taken very seriously by its citizens.
Water resources and climate change
This is the most dangerous challenge facing the MENA region and many other areas of the Global South. With unchecked global warming, water is becoming an increasingly scarce resource. Conflict in the future between states will increasingly be dictated by climate change and its devastating effects. However, we barely hear a murmur about this developing crisis facing the Middle East.
Already, Egypt has threatened Ethiopia for constructing its Grand Renaissance Dam along the Nile River. Egypt knows that the Nile provides the lifeblood for its people. With reduced waters from the Nile, Egypt would find it even more difficult to feed its population and sustain itself as a viable nation-state. While calmer heads have prevailed at the moment, the possibility of conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia – with Sudan caught between the two adversaries – presents a very frightening scenario not just for the Nile Valley, but other areas of the Middle East.
Recently, Iraq's Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi met with Turkish President Erdogan to discuss the release of water behind dams in Turkey on the Euphrates River. Iraq is facing dwindling water supplies in addition to facing the prospect of running out of funds to pay government salaries and pensions due to the drop in world oil prices. Iran is also cutting into Iraq's water supplies from the East which means that less water will flow through the Zab River into the Tigris and magnify this problem.
Iraq, Struggling to Pay Debts and Salaries, Plunges into Economic Crisis
Jordan and the Palestine National Authority are is finding their access to aquifers problematic as the water supply in these reservoirs drops. Yemen is running out of water. Meanwhile, desalinization, which is used by Saudi Arabia but especially the Arab Gulf states creates pollution problems, including polluting the Persian (Arab) Gulf. In other words, water shortages plague almost all states in the MENA region
For centuries, Venice had a Water Magistrate who was a very powerful official who managed the city's water supply and the water resources in the Venetian Lagoon. The Biden Administration should work with the United Nations to create a MENA Region Water Authority which will be able to mediate water disputes in the future before they potentially lead to inter-state conflict.
Obviously, the agenda just outlined is a broad one. What it suggests that the issues can only de confronted by an international effort, beginning witMENA region nation-states which work with the UN, the United States, the European Union and other international partners. Rather than viewing such cooperation as "Western interference," all parties should see water resources as a global problem which is being exacerbated by rapid climate change. Thus, the international community needs to stop viewing the global playing filed in "zero-sum" terns but rather as a "cooperative sum" game in which all parties benefit
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