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| This post represents Part 1 of a two effort to analyze the fracturing of national identity in Iran and Israel and its possible consequences for the MENA region. See Part 2 on Israel: https://new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2023/02/the-fracturing-of-national-identity.html |
No two countries in the MENA region exhibit more hostility to one another than Iran and Israel. It might seem odd, but both these countries suffer from similar problems which afflicts many countries in the world today, namely the fracturing of national identity. Neither Iran nor Israel possess a unified national political culture. Instead, both societies have been diverging long different paths resulting its sharp cleavages among its citizenry. What are the implications of these developments for the MENA region?
Iran has never had the opportunity to exercise democracy except for a short period after World War 11. The overthrow of the duly elected Iranian prime minister, Muhammed Mossadegh in 1953 was carried out by a CIA coup supported by Iran's military and much of its clerical class, The coup led to the reinstatement of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi who subsequently developed an extremely repressive regime.
| The toppling of the Shah's regime by the Iranian Revolution of 1978-79 was never intended by most participants to replace a secular tyrant with a clerical tyrant. However, the most conservative forces in the revolutionary coalition led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini were able to consolidate power by1983. Iran now became an Islamic Republic. |
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| Iranians mourning Mahsa Zina Amini fired on by the police For several years after Khomeini's consolidation of power, Irans' economy improved, contributing to the popularity of the regime. However, this economic improvement didn't last and the regime's increasingly oppressive policies such as mandating that women wear the hijab began to erode its power. |
The one element which gave some Iranians hope that the regime might moderate itself was the existence of periodic elections for the the national parliament and the presidency of the country. With the emergence of a growing cleavage between moderate and hardline clerics after Khomeini's death, the hope of reform was actualized in the election of Mohammed Khatami as Iran's president in 1997.
Khatami, who ran on a platform of freedom of expression, strengthening civil society, and a platform of "Dialogue Among Civilizations," in response to Samuel Huntington's well-known book, The Clash of Civilizations, embodied the hopes of liberal minded clerics, professionals, the business sector which wanted to ope the Iranian economy to foreign investment, leftists and youth. In 2001, the United nations named the year as that of "Dialogue of Civilizations," following Khatami's suggestion.
Despite very little media attention, Khatami defeated his conservative rival winning 70% of the vote. The election itself saw a remarkable 80% turnout. Even in the conservative theological seminary city of Qum, Khatami received 70% of the vote. Clearly the election indicated that Iranians wanted a new, more open and democartic political system.
After winning 2 terms, Khatami stepped down in 2055 after serving the limit of 2 terms. He was succeeded bu a har-liber Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. In 2009, he threw his support to his colleague, another reformer, Mir-Hossein Mousavi. Most observers believe the election was fraudulent and characterized by massive voting irregularities as Ahmedinejad was proclaimed to have won a second term. The result was an outpouring of opposition in the streets to the election. In the repression of the demonstrations, thousands of Iranian protestors, the vast majority of whom were peaceful, were arrested or killed by security forces. The Other Iran
Ahmedinejad's presidency was characterized by increased human rights violations. The number of death sentences for juveniles tripled under his rule and attacks on the LGBTQ community were commonplace. Indeed, Ahmedinejad asserted that there were no LGBTQ Iranians at all. His consistent attacks on Israel which threatened to destroy the state raised international fears as Iran continued its nuclear energy program which was viewed by most international analysts to really constitutes an effort to develop nuclear weapons.
In 2006, the United Nations Security Council began imposing sanctions on Iraq when it refused to terminate its uranium enrichment efforts. These sanctions were increased in 2007 and 2008 and in 2010, Iran was subject to a complete arms embargo. Ahmedinejad argued that the sanctions were "illegal," adding power to his hardline supporters.
The sanctions, combined with widespread corruption among the clerical elite and expenditures on Iran's nuclear program and support for allies in Lebanon and Iraq and Syrian president Bashar al-Asad's regime, undermined the economy. Youth found it difficult to find employment and careers, even with a university degree, unless they had ties to the regime.
In 2013, centrist reformer, and well respected cleric, Hassan Rouhani, won the presidency. Although he maintained close ties to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Rouhani grained the support from reformers and youth given his promises to open Iran to foreign investment, improve the economy and seek to resolve its conflicts with the international community. His close ties not just to the regime but to the Green Movement which had contested the 2009 elections results led to a decisive victory.
By 2017, when Rouhani sought a second term, hardliners nominated Ebrahim Raisi to run against him. Raisi, is infamously known as the "hanging judge" for his brutal repression of dissidents in 1988 when Ayatollah Khomeini ordered the mass executions of members of the opposition group, Mujahidin al-Khalq and large numbers of leftists. The estimates of those executed were as high as 30,000 people. Raisi ran a lackluster campaign. Rouhani beat him with an impressive 57% of the vote in an elections that saw a 71% voter turnout rate.
Having had enough of reformers, Iran's Guardian Council, which must approve all candidates for public office, disqualified anyone with reformist credential from running in the 2021 presidentail elections. Meanwhile, Raisi, now seen as a possible successor to Khamenei, who is ill with leukemia, ran for president again, This time he was successful, winning 65% of the votes but with a voter turnout of 48% and 3,7 million ballots left blank as protests votes.
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| High school girls are leading protests in Iran |
Raisi is part of the gentrifications of Iran's clergy who are increasingly out of touch with the younger generation, 80% of which is under the age of 40. His support for strict sex segregation and reference to same sex marriage as "savagery" is rejected by large numbers of Iranian youth, especially urban educated youth. His support for amputation as a punishment for theft and refusal to accept that the Holocaust occurred underscores his hardline and rigid approach to political and social affairs.
On September 9, 2023, a young woman, Mahsa Jina Amini, was traveling to Teheran from her home in Iran's Kurdish region in the northwest, when she was stopped by Iran's "morality police." She was accused of wearing her hijab improperly. Amini was arrested and taken to prison where she was beaten. Taken to a hospital, she died the next day.Protests in Iran Spread, Including to Oil Sector, Despite Violent Crackdown
Once the news began to circulate, thousands of Iranians too to the streets to protest Amini's death, including large numbers of female youth. Wide scale demonstrations brought sections of many of Iran's major cities to a halt. As of the writing of this post, security forces still face sporadic protests throughout the country.
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