What will be the outcome of the current conflict between the United States and Israel and Iran? What are the goals which each side seeks to achieve? Even if the fighting ends, what will be the regional and global ramifications? What lessons should we learn from the prosecution of the current war?
The Iran War has already become one of the defining events of the twenty first century. It has caused a large amount of deaths and destruction in Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf and Israel. It is estimated that the war is costing million per minute. Whatever the correct figure, the expenditures are huge and will have significant effects on the societies of those countries fighting the war The $1.3-Million-a-Minute War
A Popular Uprising? Both the US and Israel began the war seeking regime change in Tehran. However, neither side realized the degree to which the current Tehran regime has embedded itself in Iranian society. One of the most brutal regimes in the world, it tolerates no dissent, and has killed tens of thousands of its citizens since consolidating power in 1983.
The idea that the joint US-Israeli attack would lead to a popular uprising which would overthrow the current regime was always a fantasy. While 80% of Iran's population despises the current regime, of the remaining 20%, only 10% are ideologically motivated while another 10% rely on the regime for their financial well being.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps numbers 150,000 members. Its Basij militia, embedded in neighborhoods through the country, has between 400,000 to 600,000 members who are available to be called up when needed. There security forces are structured according to a "Mosaic System," namely a dispersed form of authority.
Iran has 31 provinces with each one, in effect, having its own separately organized security forces. The command structure at the local level is multi-layered. Thus, if the top leadership is in one region of the country is killed, those lower down in the ranks are immediately able to take over and fill their roles.
During demonstrations in 2009 against what was considered a fraudulent presidential election, and in 2022 when a young Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, was arrested and then killed in custody by security forces for improperly wearing her hijab (headdress), and then again this past January after Iran's currency collapsed, hundreds of thousands of protesters were killed. Protestors were shot at point black range by security forces and as many as 30,000 may have been killed. An uprising now by unarmed civilians would only lead to thousands more Iranian deaths.
A major US and Israeli goal of the war was to destroy Iran's ballistic missile system. If Iran no longer possessed ballistic missiles, then it could no longer threaten Israel and other countries in the eastern Middle East. Much of this missile system has been destroyed by US and Israeli air attacks. However, it is believed that Iran still has ballistic missiles hidden in underground bunkers and is saving them if the regime faces a serious possibility of collapse.
Even though, Iran's daily use of ballistic missiles and its Shahed-136 drone, which have already caused extensive damage in Saudi Arabia the Arab Gulf states and Israel, its attacks have been increasingly effective in damaging or destroying its targets. Many observers believe that Russia is providing Iran with targeting intelligence which has enabled Iran to use its missiles and drones to destroy US radar installations in the Persian Gulf to undermine US and Israeli attacks A Toothless Iran? Missile and Drone Strikes Show It Can Still Inflict Pain
After the 12 day war in June 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran had delivered an "historic victory" that would "stand for generations." However, in the 9 months following the 12 day June war, Iran quickly rebuilt much of its ballistic missile arsenal. It dramatically increased its number of drones which some analysts say still number around 2000.
Boots on the Ground Once the June War ended, President Trump declared that the US and Israeli bombings had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear industry and its ability to develop a nuclear weapon. Trump's statement highlights the Holy Grail of the current US-Israeli attacks on Iran, namely dismantling Iran's nuclear weapons program once and for all. However, it wasn't "obliterated" last June. Iran still possesses a 1000 lbs. of 60% enriched uranium which can be increased to 90%, enough to build a nuclear weapon.
Most if not all of the enriched uranium is buried in the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center south of the city of Isfahan in central Iran. The uranium is stored in tunnels under a mountain which was bombed heavily in June 2025, together with two other nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz. Even if the enriched uranium could be increased to 90%, Iran would still need to develop the technology to arm a ballistic missile with a nuclear payload which is challenging Analysis: Iran likely transferred highly enriched uranium to Isfahan before the June strikes
Because Iran still possesses enriched uranium, the US and Israel will not have achieved victory unless they can either force Iran to voluntarily surrender the uranium as a part of a peace agreement, or extract the uranium from Iran using US forces if Iran refuses to give it up Trump May Seize Iran’s Nuclear Stockpile: Why Airstrikes Alone Aren’t Enough
To extract the uranium from the Isfahan facility would be a highly complex and dangerous operation. First, US forces would need to secure the site by establishing a perimeter around it. Second, the US would need to construct an airfield to which it could bring it earth moving equipment to assure US forces could gain access to the underground tunnels where the uranium is stored.
Third, a team of experts would be needed to remove mines and booby traps at the entrance to the facility and in its tunnels. Fourth, the troops who extracted the material would need to be specially trained to handle the uranium which is packed in scuba tank sized canisters. However, if the canisters began to leak, troops could die from the radiation poisoning. An even more dangerous scenario might be setting off a nuclear chain reaction if tanks broke while being moved, resulting in an explosion which would kill everyone in the tunnels of the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center.
Because both Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have consistently maintained that there will be no "boots on the ground" in Iran, talk of using US forces to extract the uranium contradicts this assertion. Given the American public's strong hostility to the Iran War, the uranium extraction scenario seems even more unlikely. A Pew Research Center poll shows, 61% of Americans oppose the war, while a Times of Israel poll shows that 55% of American Jews oppose it as well Most American Jews disapprove of US military action against Iran, new poll shows
Because Qatar provides 20% of the world's liquified natural gas and over 80% of the LNG used in Asia, the shortage of gas will raise the price globally, leading to an economic slowdown. While the United States is a net exporter of LNG, the rise in prices will have a negative impact on US exports and International trade generally. The US is already feeling a helium shortage which is a by-product of natural gas production an d a crucial component in manufacturing high-pend semiconductor chips Why helium is essential to the future of semiconductor manufacturing
All experts on Iran, academic and military, knew that a likely outcome of the attack would lead the Tehran regime to close the Straits of Hormuz. Only 200 ft deep and thus only providing a two mile wide channel for large oil tankers and container ships to traverse, it is a strategic chokepoint for a large percentage of the world's oil exported by Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states as well as Qatari and Iranian natural gas This Is What Happens When the Gas Runs Out
Trump's effort to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty that an attack on one member is an attack on all failed. NATO allies have indicated they will not become involved in a war in which they were not consulted and which they thought foolish to start.
Prior to the war, Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states were seen by American A.I. firms as sources of both investment and as sites for A.I. data centers. Saudi Arabia is already building 67 generating plans which it argues can supply the massive amount of electricity A.I. data centers requires more cheaply than in United States and the West. This policy is part of Saudi Leader Muhammad Bin Salman to make the kingdom an A.I. powerhouse Saudi Arabia’s New Power Play Is Exporting A.I. to the World
 |
| Data Center Hubs in Saudi Arabia - Equinox |
Lessons Learned One lesson learned from the Iran War is that the United States should always develop international coalitions before proceeding with a large-scale military initiative such as the attack on Iran. NATO members states weren't consulted for their advice nor were the Arab states which neighbor Iran. All would have discouraged Trump and warned of the many of the possible negative outcomes of such an attack, such as Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz and causing a significant spike in oil and natural gas prices.
Basing military decisions on advice from a Secretary of Defense whose credentials are those as a combat veteran and television news commentator is highly problematic. Not only does Pete Hegseth lack military planning experience, but he holds press conferences which distort the course of the war and purposely keep reporters from the mainstream US media in the dark. He has presented footage of US bombings paired with video game clips, such as those from "Call of Duty." Presenting the conflict with Iran as a video game turns war - the human tragedy that it is - into a social media spectacle.
Likewise, it was shortsighted to employ two real estate developers with little to no foreign policy experiences and limited knowledge of Iranian politics and society to negotiate with the Tehran regime. The Omani Foreign Minister, who mediated the talks between Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, indicated that they failed to grasp essential facts of Iran's nuclear capacity, e.g., confusing a nuclear reactor given to the former Shah of Iran in 1968 for medical purposes with Iran's current efforts to develop a nuclear weapon.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio also serves as National Security Advisor and thus has a large and complex portfolio. He has been deeply involved in efforts to maintain US control over Venezuela and in efforts to depose the communist regime in Cuba. Further, he has overseen the firing of hundreds of US State Department officers, perceived as disloyal to Trump, which includes many experts on Iran and the Middle East. In short, Trump's team wasn't well prepared to plan a major military operation like the Iran War.
Second, countries shouldn't initiate wars with ill-defined goals. Donald Trump was unable to define the war's objectives with any precision when the US and Israeli attacks began. At first, the goal was regime change and depriving Iran of its ability to develop a nuclear weapon (even though Trump told the public in June 2025 that the US and Israel had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear weapons program).
Later the goals became destroying Iran's military and ballistic missiles. Most recently, the goal has been to reopen the Straits of Hormuz to allow oil and natural gas to flow through it again without Iranian interference. Now it appears that Trump is willing to walk away from the war by declaring that it has accomplished regime change and that other countries, such as those in Europe and Asias which are dependent on Iranian, Saudi and Gulf oil should take responsibility for reopening access though the Straits Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz
Finally, planning a war with the current Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu was likewise a mistake. Netanyahu played on Trump's ego to convince him that a joint attack could topple the Tehran regime and award Trump a legacy which all former presidents from Reagan to Biden have been unable to claim.
Netanyahu has had a lifelong goal of destroying Iran's nuclear weapons program and deposing the Tehran regime, admittedly important objectives However, he is just as much concerned with forthcoming Israeli elections and holding his far right cabinet together. Netanyahu also wants to remain Israel's prime minister to retain immunity from prosecution for his ongoing corruption trial which could send him to jail. To date, his attacks on Iran have been supported by a majority of Israel's population, but have failed yo improve his low polling numbers. Thus, contra Trump, he has every incentive to keep the war with Iran ongoing.
Netanyahu's attack on the South Pars natural gas field and refineries in Iran was the beginning of an effort to destroy the Iranian economy. Fortunately Trump immediately stopped these attacks, arguing that Iran's energy infrastructure would be critical for rebuilding the country should new leadership friendly to the West come to power America and Israel United to Fight Iran. Both Will Pay a Price
Netanyahu has also ordered Israel forces to attack Hizballah in southern Lebanon and the suburbs of Beirut where it has offices and command centers after it fired rockets into northern Israel once the US and Israeli attacks on Iran began. Israeli forces entered Lebanon in 1982 to dislodge Palestine Liberation Organizations (PLO) bases in the south but continued north until they reached Lebanon's capital, Beirut.
Lebanon's Shi'a population, the largest ethnic group in Lebanon which is concentrated in the south, has historically been ignored by the central government in Beirut. First a Shi'a organization, Amal (Movement of Hope), arose to protect their interests. It was superseded by the more radical and Iran-allied Hizballah (Party of God) movement. After losing many soldiers to attacks by Shi'a militants, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) finally withdrew from Lebanon in 2000.
Now the US will find itself caught between two allies, Israel and Lebanon. Because Israeli lacks the numbers of soldiers it needs to both fight in Lebanon and keep the county's economy running, the new war in Lebanon will increase calls for more American funding to support it. When such requests are forthcoming, it will only increase calls in anti-Semitic corners of the GOP and MAGA movement to cut off funding to Israel.
Moving Forward: Toppling the Tehran Regime The Iranian regime should not be just an American and Israeli goal but an International one (although it's notable that Trump never mentions North Korea, a much more potent military threat with nuclear weapons which can reach the US). The Tehran regime has not only killed hundreds of thousands of its citizens but large numbers of people throughout the Middle East at the hands of its proxy forces in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
The Trump administration views the world through a transactional lens. "Act and be done" is its mantra, rather than engage in long term planning. However, developing meaningful policy in the international arena isn't the equivalent of a real estate transaction or a video game. It requires expertise and hard work to plan successful strategies.
The International community. needs to come together to rid Iran of its brutal regime and prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. Having nuclear weapons would allow Iran to further bully its neighbors and also set off a regional nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
Iran's economy is already on the ropes. While the Tehran regime has made significant profits from rising oil prices because it has been able to continue shipping oil through the Straits of Hormuz, the US and Israeli bombing have seriously damaged its manufacturing sector. As the result of an extensive drought and state mismanagement of water resources, the country is drying up. Already parts of the country in the southeast are uninhabitable due to lack of water After Ruining a Treasured Water Resource, Iran Is Drying Up
The International community must seize the oil tanker "shadow fleet," several hundred decrepit tankers of secret ownership and dubious national registration, which Iran (and Russia) uses to export oil and circumvent US and global sanctions. Iran transfers oil once it leaves the Persian Gulf to such tankers as it ships sanctioned oil to China, India and the countries around the world.
The IRGC is more than a military organization. It controls much of Iran's economy. Its commanders have large amounts funds hidden away in foreign banks, e.g., in Europe. These funds in foreign bank accounts must be frozen. Once the Tehran regime and its commanders in the IRGC and the Basij militia can no longer pay their members, the regime will face collapse.
Does the US, the EU and their international partners have the patience and fortitude to bring Iran's nightmare under the so-called Islamic Republic to an end? Only time will tell.
