 |
| Vladimir Putin & Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in November 2016 |
As Erdogan’s rule has become more repressive, and his foreign
policy more quixotic and anti-Western, American and European analysts continue
to argue that, despite his utterances and behavior, the West should “exercise
caution” and effectively “turn the other cheek.”* After all, doesn’t Turkey occupy a critical
geo-political position between the MENA region, Eastern Europe and Russia? With a population of 80 million people, one
of the most powerful militaries in the MENA region, and an economy four times
the size of neighboring Greece, shouldn’t the West do everything it can to
maintain a close relationship with Erdogan’s Turkey?
The lack of a serious
Western policy towards Erdogan
But does “avoidance behavior” really constitute a serious
policy in any meaningful sense of the term?
Or is such thinking – namely, basing Western policy on “hope” with no
idea of what the ultimate outcome will be – an ostrich-like approach which can
only lead to indecision at best and failure at worst?
“Realists” in Western foreign policy making circles point to
Turkey’s important geo-political position, its military and economic power, and,
above all, the need to maintain its NATO membership. This approach is very much like a therapist
who tells a wife that she should ignore her husband’s infidelities, and then
continues to advocate “not rocking the boat,” even when her husband returns
home drunk and beats her, and in front of their children. No serious therapist would counsel patience
and relying on hope when a women’s physical safety is at stake.
“Realists” seem to think that “waiting” will lead Erdogan to
change his current policies and fall in line behind Turkey’s earlier behavior
when it was far more supportive of Western interests. These analysts should be disabused of such
notions after reading Erdogan’s New York
Times Op-Ed, “Turkey’s Views of the Crisis With the US” (August 13,
2018). https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/10/opinion/turkey-erdogan-trump-crisis-sanctions.html
Yet again, Erdogan offers a laundry list of complaints about US behavior which are linked to unsubstantiated accusations, accusing the US of disrespect for the Turkish nation-state, interference in its internal affairs, and indirect responsibility for the failed July 2016 coup d’état by allowing the coup’s purported mastermind, Fethullah Gulen, to remain in the United States.
Yet again, Erdogan offers a laundry list of complaints about US behavior which are linked to unsubstantiated accusations, accusing the US of disrespect for the Turkish nation-state, interference in its internal affairs, and indirect responsibility for the failed July 2016 coup d’état by allowing the coup’s purported mastermind, Fethullah Gulen, to remain in the United States.
Can Erdogan find new
allies to replace NATO, the EU and the US?
Erdogan ends his Op-Ed with the ominous words: “Failure [of
the US] to reverse this trend of unilateralism and disrespect will require us
to start looking for new friends and allies.” This threat underscores yet again
that Erdogan is not only unreliable and has little concern for Western
strategic interests, let along human rights and democracy, but is not in touch
with reality. Under these circumstances,
what benefit does the US and the West derive from Turkey’s geo-political
position if Turkey’s leader won’t cooperate with NATO, the US or other Western
democracies?
Erdogan’s threats are in fact vacuous. When he suggests Turkey may find “other friends
and allies,” Russia quickly comes to mind.
However, Erdogan has already developed close ties to the Putin
regime. Over NATO objections, he purchased
Russian surface to air missiles and he has pushed closer political and economic
ties between the two countries. Thus, Erdogan has already cozied up to Vladimir
Putin’s equally dysfunctional regime.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-foreign-usa-turkey/pompeo-presses-turkey-on-s-400-missiles-purchase-from-russia-idUSKBN1HY2A6
Further, Erdogan pursues closer ties with Putin’s Russia at his
own peril. Clearly, Russia and Turkey
differ on several key policy areas.
First, Turkey seeks to become the conduit for Europe’s natural gas needs
by constructing a pipeline from Central Asia to deliver the gas. Its
Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and its Trans-Adriatic Pipeline
(TAP) will by 2019 offer natural gas derived
from Central Asia to Europe, which has seen a decline its own natural gas
reserves.
This goal sits in direct competition with Putin’s Nord
Stream 2 Pipeline which, developed by Gazprom, would provide gas to Europe
through a pipeline running under the Baltic Sea. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Merkel-Putin-To-Discuss-Nord-Stream-2-Gas-Pipeline-On-Saturday.html
Turkish policy in Syria also competes with Russian
objectives. Erdogan despises Bashar
al-Asad and is committed to overthrowing his regime. Russia’s goals are to assure that al-Asad
remains in power. The Syrian dictator’s control of Syria ensures that Russia
will retain access to Syrian air bases and the only port it has on the
Mediterranean at Tartus.
Finally, Putin is very suspicious of Erdogan’s efforts to
develop strong tie with the Turkish language speaking countries which were
formally part of the Soviet Union. The
Russian leader views recreating the Soviet
state in all but name as one of his key foreign policy objectives. His efforts
to tie the ex-Soviet republics to Russia through trade and other economic
policies runs against Erdogan’s efforts to tie these republics to Turkey
instead as part of his “neo-Ottomanism.”
In many of the Central Asian “Stans,” Islamist forces have
been gaining strength. With Chechnya (the
Chechen Republic) still under threat from radical Islamists, and the violence
which has occurred there still fresh in the mind of all Russians, any meddling
by Erdogan, himself an Islamist, in Central Asia counters Russia’s strategic interests
in that region.
How has Erdogan
undermined the West and MENA countries’ ability to defeat the Islamic State?
If Erdogan’s ability to enhance ties to Russia are
circumscribed, his policies have followed the opposite trajectory regarding the
US and NATO. In Syria, Erdogan looked the other way for years as Dacish
fighters coming from European countries crossed the Turkish border on their way
to join the terrorist organization. Erdogan has attacked the strongest force in
northern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces, which has been central in helping
the US and coalition forces defeat the Dacish terrorist group. Meanwhile, his own allies are themselves radical islamists. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-civil-war-assad-regime-turkey-afrin-kurds-eastern-ghouta-us-allies-militia-a8252456.html
Erdogan has also attacked the YPG (People’s
Protection Units) which represents the Kurds of northern Syria who were
brutally repressed by the Bashar al-Asad regime in Damascus. In the Kurdish
majority city of Afrin, Erdogan’s allies in the so-called “Free Syrian Army”
have been accused of kidnapping and raping local women.
Beyond Turkey’s negligible help in defeating the Dacish
in Syria, Erdogan has diligently worked to destroy the Rojava Kurds’ egalitarian
and ethnically diverse experiment in northern Syria under the YPG. The Rojava Kurds have eliminated so-called “honor
crimes,” dowries and have created a political structure in which all major
institutions in the Rojava region are co-directed by a man and a woman. Sustainable development benefitting all
residents of the region has now been put at risk by Erdogan’s attack and
designation of the YPG as “terrorists.”
How has Erdogan’s
domestic policy promoted political instability in Turkey?
Erdogan’s human right abuses distinguish him from other NATO
member states. Selahattin Dermirtas, an
ethnic Kurd and leader of one of Turkey’s main opposition parties, the HDP,
sits in jail where he stands accused of “terrorism” due to criticism of
Erdogan. He ran for the office of
president in this past July’s elections from his jail cell. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/20/opinion/president-turkey-elections-demirtas.html
Demirtas’ People’s Democratic Party (HDP received 11% of the votes to win 67
seats in Turkey’s parliament. His party,
co-chaired with female MP Pervin Buldan, is the only cross-ethnic party with a
substantial social base, precisely why Erdogan, who refuses to address the
Turkish-Kurdish divide in Turkey finds the party so threatening.
Within Turkey, countless journalists, university academics
and school teachers languish in jail and face trial for ill-defined offenses. Those arrested are considered disloyal or for
what the Turkish leader considers the slightest criticism. The position of prime minister was eliminated
in a faulty referendum which consolidated power in the position of the president. In effect, Erdogan faces no checks and balances.
Colloquial wisdom has much to tell us regarding the West’s
relationship with Erdogan; “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on
me.” Put differently, how many decisions
does Erdogan need to make until the US, NATO, the EU and other Western
democracies realize that he has no desire to promote stability in the MENA
region, treat the large population of Turkish Kurdish citizens with even a
modicum of respect, much less attend to their social and economic needs, or
deviate from his desire to emulate the sultan-caliphs of the defunct Ottoman
Empire, a desire driven by ego and narcissism.
Why Turkey must have
an independent Central Bank before any
IMF economic bailout
In light of Turkey’s current economic threat to the global
policy, one brought on not only be reckless borrowing which has produced loans
which can’t be replayed, but reflect the country’s excessive economic
corruption, the West should focus less on Turkey as a NATO member and more on
its deeply troubled economy.
European banks in particular have a large exposure to
loans made to Turkey which it appears borrowers are having an increasingly
difficult time repaying. While a
collapse of the lira would affect only %0.2 of the equity of European banks, these
loans total
€140 billion ($159 billion). https://www.marketwatch.com/story/contagion-from-turkish-currency-collapse-to-european-banks-is-overblown-says-analyst-2018-08-14.
Of greater danger is the threat a collapse of the lira would have on other emerging market countries such as Brazil and Indonesia. With Turkey in a downward economic spiral, investors in the industrialized North would be loathe to commit investments to other countries in the emerging market category.
Of greater danger is the threat a collapse of the lira would have on other emerging market countries such as Brazil and Indonesia. With Turkey in a downward economic spiral, investors in the industrialized North would be loathe to commit investments to other countries in the emerging market category.
With the Trump administration having slapped
sanctions on imported Turkish steel, Turkey’s economy has received a further blow. It has been a major source of US rebar which is
essential to the construction industry, especially in erecting tall buildings.
A strong stance towards Erdogan is also the best move by
NATO and the West in light of the increasing instability of the Turkish
economy. The reasons for the Turkish
lira’s recently slide, having lost 62% of its value in relation to the US
dollar this year (trading at 6.4 to the dollar at this writing) is not because Donald
Trump has slapped sanctions on Erdogan and members of his inner circle.
For years, the Erdogan regime has underwritten myriad loans
to support the Turkish business elite with close ties to his AKP (Justice and
Development Party). These loans, which
built on a since dissipated international appetite for emerging markets,
primarily targeted the construction sector,
resulting in the building of a large number of high-end apartment buildings in
Turkish cities, especially Istanbul, to house the AKP elite.
Now that international interest rates have been to rise as
the global economy has finally been able to escape from the worst of the 2008
fiscal crisis, holders of these loans are finding it difficult to repay them as
they are valued in dollars. As the lire
has declined, the cost of relying Turkey huge foreign debt has become even more
onerous.
Adding to Turkey’s economic woes are the constant utterances
of Erdogan which further erode international confidence in the Turkish
economy. With the recent consolidation
of power in the office of the presidency, Turkey’s Central Bank has lost its
independence. As Erdogan rails against
higher interest rates (one of his favorite sayings is: “interest is the mother
of all evil”), the Central Bank’s ability to stabilize the lira has been
compromised. Meanwhile, he appointed his
son-in-law Berat Albayrak,
to the post of finance minister.
Could Erdogan follow
the path of the former Shah of Iran?
The current US and Western relationship with Erdogan remind us
of the relationship the US had with the former Shah of Iran, Mohamed Reza
Pahlavi. After the US restored the Shah to the Peacock Throne in 1953, in
supporting the overthrow of the duly-elected prime minister of Iran, Mohamed
Mossadegh, an aristocratic reformer whose sin was to seek higher royalty
payments from the British owned Anglo-Iranian Oil Company.
As is well known, the Shah was an extremely repressive
leader. His policies were designed to marginalize the powerful bazaar merchant
class and the Shi a clergy, dispossess the rural peasantry, a large sector of
which migrated to urban slums in Iranian cities, and create a powerful Western
economic compradorial elite which
turned the Iranian economy into a satellite for international agrobusiness and assembling
consumer durables for trans-national corporations.
The “tipping point” (or sufficient conditions) which pushed
Iran to the brink of revolution in the late 1970s was the Sha’s decision to cut
back on urban construction to reduce the inflation caused by the rise in
inflation caused by dramatic oil price rises after the Arab Oil Embargo of
1973. This policy led to many rural
migrants who depended on income from construction suddenly facing economic ruin. Their participation in demonstrations against
the Shah and the refusal of the army to attack demonstrators was key to
bringing down the Shah’s regime
As the Shah’s regime increased its strategic importance with
the implementation of the Nixon Doctrine, US policy-makers consistently ignored
its human rights abuses and corruption.
The Nixon Doctrine, which was a response in large measure to the high
casualties of the Vietnam War, designated regional allies in strategic areas,
rather than US forces, to assume the major role in protecting American
interests. With the Persian Gulf
assuming great importance due to its supplying oil to much of the world, the
Shah’s regime became the local US “policeman.”
The sale of large amounts of US arms to Iran, e.g., Grumman Aircraft, also incentivized
policy-makers to look the other way at the increasingly repressive nature of
the Shah’s regime. The US even agreed to curtail its intelligence gathering
forces in Iran at the Shah’s request. Thus,
the US lacked the necessary “eyes and ears” as the Iranian Revolution of
1978-79 loomed as an ever-larger possibility.
Together with North
Korea, the US’ relationship with the so-called Islamic Republic of Iran is the worst
of any country in the world. In a misguided
effort which allowed an abstract understanding of “geo-political position” to
guide American policy, the result was that the US has suffered almost 30 years
of foreign policy crisis with the current Teheran regime.
What needs to be placed at the forefront of any US and
Western policy is political leadership and political institutions. The “fish rots from the head down.” A country can possess enormous strategic interest. However, if a nation-state is ruled by an
authoritarian, corrupt and erratic leader, and if there are no institutional
checks and balances on that leader, strategic value as a concept possesses
little if no value to those countries which seek to cooperate with the country
in question.
At present, the US should worry less about Turkey’s standing
in NATO, and whether Erdogan will try and strengthen ties with Russia and perhaps
China, two of the West’s strongest adversaries.
Instead the US, NATO and the EU should:
1) prevent the IMF or other international lender from
offering Erdogan relief from the economic crisis he created unless the Turkish
Central Bank is independent and competent economists, rather than his relatives,
administer the appropriate state ministries and agencies concerned with the
economy;
2) stand firm against Erdogan
in northern Syria and not allow Turkish forces, and especially their surrogate militia,
the “Free Syrian Army” attack the Rojava Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Forces;
3) maintain a steady criticism of
Erdogan’s policies of firing and imprisoning teachers, academics, journalists,
professionals and members of opposition parties who criticize his authoritarian
rule;
4) stop worrying about Turkey’s efforts to strengthen its
ties with Russia, a policy it would follow no matter what the policy positions of the
US and the West, because Erdogan will only
create problems for Putin which will undermine, not enhance, Russia’s position
in the MENA region.
2 comments:
nice
This is why I put so much time, money, and effort into creating exceptional content with all the persuasive checks and balances. And I’ve told you this before: When I started blogging, my content failed to hit the mark.
Post a Comment