Thursday, March 31, 2022

The Middle East and the Globalization of the Ukraine War

How has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affected the Middle East?  There have been many attempts to address this issue.  However, several key issues still need to be examined.  What are these issues and why are they significant?  How do they reflect on the tendency of local wars to become globalized, namely to affect regions far beyond the conflict arena?

Food shortages, poverty and authoritarian rule 

It’s already become clear that the Ukraine War has led to a spike in food prices as Russian and Ukrainian exports of corn, barley, sunflowers (for cooking oil), and especially wheat, have been dramatically curtailed.  Even if hostilities were halted soon, the 2022 agricultural  season has been irreparably damaged.  

 

With many MENA region countries dependent on wheat and other products from Ukraine and Russia, as well as Belarus, which is an important exporter of fertilizer, predictions are that severe food shortages will affect both the MENA region and the African continent.  Starvation may even result in a number of countries. Regarding wheat, the most important crop, other countries such as the United States, Brazil and Argentina will not be able to make up the shortfall caused by the Ukraine war. 

 

To take Egypt as an example, 85% of its wheat is imported. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, inflation was growing, and food prices were on the rise.  In 2016, Egypt received a large $12 billion IMF loan, which was intended to diversify the economy and address poverty, with afflicts a third of the country. 

Mideast Feels Pinch of Rising Food Prices as Ramadan Nears

 

Instead, President ‘Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi’s regime used the IMF loan for other purposes.  Funds were invested in real estate development and to construct a lavish new Egyptian in the desert outside Cairo.   Clearly, al-Sisi was more interested in meeting his personal interests and those of the Egyptian political elite, than the needs of the populace at large.  Understandably, there has been rising discontent at the inability of the regime to address rising prices which have skyrocketed just before the onset of the month of Ramadan. 

 

Not only will Putin’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine cause disadvantaged sectors of society throughout the Middle East, Africa and other countries of the Global South to suffer, but it will increase political instability.  As the Egyptian case suggests, rising food prices and the resulting food insecurity will intensify the focus on state corruption and the manner in which authoritarian regimes fulfill the interests of the small elites which support them while ignoring the needs of their citizenry. 

 

Increased opportunities for mercenaries 

Russian miscalculations of Ukrainian resistance have not only foiled its efforts to seize Ukraine’s major cities but have resulted in a very large casualties among its forces.  Indeed, Putin has been forced to move troops from eastern Russia and even from the breakaway Russian occupied regions of Georgia to come fight in Ukraine. 


Reports indicate that over 40,000 Syrians have volunteered to fight for Russia in Ukraine.  While one might think this reflects support for Russia and its goals in attacking Ukraine, interviews with Syrians going to fight in Ukraine indicate otherwise.  Those getting ready to fly to Russia indicate that they cannot support themselves and their families given Syria’s ravaged economy. With Russia willing to pay $7000 per month for those willing to serve on the frontlines, and $3500 for those willing to serve in ancillary military roles, the material needs of many males of combat age are such that they are drawn to taking up Putin’s offer, albeit reluctantly. 

Ukraine War: The Syrians Signing Up to Fight for Russia

 

With the MENA region facing droughts, water shortages and rising temperatures, resulting from the impact of the global Climate Emergency, we can expect instability in the region to increase, regardless of the Ukraine war, especially in those countries which lack significant resources, such as oil and natural gas.  As local economies, such as those of Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Yemen, Algeria and Lebanon, face ever greater challenges, autocrats like Putin will find a growing source of mercenaries ready to fight for whoever is willing to pay them salaries. 

 

Russia’s ability to exercise power in the MENA region 

What few analysts have speculated on thus far is the extent to which the sanctions to which Russia has been subjected will affect its global foreign policy. What will be the sanctions’ long term impact?  While the impact has yet to be fully felt, Russia will no doubt remain a pariah state long after the Ukraine war has ended, especially if Vladimir Putin retains power.  Will the myriad Western corporations which have shut down their operations in Russia be willing to return to the status quo ante after the war is over? 


When looking at Russia’s role in the MENA region, Syria immediately comes to mind. Will Russia have the economic wherewithal and the manpower needed to continue its active support of Bashar al-Asad’s regime in Syria?  The Syrian economy is on life support and al-Asad’s control of much of the country is tenuous at best.  In what ways could the Russian-Syrian alliance be a causality of what is increasingly an enormous blunder which Putin made in attacking Ukraine? 

 

Russia has committed to building a new nuclear reactor in Iran.  However, the rigorous sanctions which have been imposed by the West, Japan, South Korea, and other countries have severed Russia’s access to crucial technology, such as microchips.  There have been reports that Russia is having difficulty in servicing and repairing its energy industry’s infrastructure due to a lack of spare parts and other technical requirements. Under these circumstances, will Russia be able to exert political influence though development projects which it can no longer implement? 

 

Turkey’s relationship to Russia will certainly undergo change as well. There was great concern when Turkey concluded an agreement with Russia to purchase its S-400 missile system.  However, Putin’s miscalculation that the invasion of Ukraine would lead to a quick Russian victory and replacing the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy has lengthened the invasion far beyond Russia’s initial expectation. This delay in bringing Putin’s “Special military Operation” to a close has forced Turkey to close the Straits of the Bosporus and Dardanelles, preventing Russian access to the Black Sea, thereby impeding its ability to attack southern Ukrainian port cities. 

 

Perhaps more significant is the drones which Turkey has supplied to Ukraine’s military.  The Bayrakter TB2 is an inexpensive ($2 million each) and slow-moving drone.  However, it is simple to operate and has been responsible for large numbers of Russian casualties thus far in the Ukraine war.  Further, the drones have been key in providing the Ukrainian government with visual imagery of the large number of Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers which Ukraine has been able to destroy. 

Cheap but lethal Turkish drones bolster Ukraine’s defenses


Changing alliance structures in the Middle East 

Another area which requires more study is the impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have on local alliance structures.  Israel has been criticized for its tepid condemnation of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and its unwillingness to impose sanctions on Russia.  Israel has developed a tacit agreement with Russia that it can attack Hizballah units in Syria and Lebanon, as well as Iranian arms shipments to Syria, despite Russia’s support of the al-Asad regime.   


However, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has come under increasing criticism from within his own governing coalition, especially from Foreign Minister, Yair Lapid, and members of the US Congress. Will the Israeli-Russian tacit agreement over Syrian and Lebanon withstand the test of the Ukraine war, especially as Russia reduces Ukrainian cities to rubble, as it has already done with Mariupol? 

 

Finally, what impact has the war had on the MENA region’s core conflict, namely the struggle for regional hegemony between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies?  With the recent summit in Israel’s Negev Desert, which bought together the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco and Israel, will the anti-Iranian alliance become stronger?  Will Russia lose influence as it’s left to maneuver between the competing forces, namely Iran and the Arab-Israel alliance?     

 

If anti-Iranian forces feel empowered through Israel's support, and become more aggressive towards Iran, especially if its Houthi allies in Yemen continue to send drones to bomb Saudi and UAE targets, how will Putin respond?  Will Putin double down on Russia’s support for the Tehran regime, or will he moderate his support for Iran in hopes of retaining ties to Arab states, some of which have purchased Russian arms, such as Egypt, as well as Israel? 


A spread of terrorism? 

Little attention has been given to the possible spread of terrorism in the MENA region caused by rising food prices, an important driver of the Arab Spring uprisings.  With increased economic disruption, it is conceivable to envision Libya and Syria becoming venues for the spread of terrorist groups loyal to the Islamic State, and to seeing an increase of the Islamic State’s ongoing attacks in northern and north central Iraq.  

Wednesday, March 9, 2022

The World Changed on February 24, 2022: What Impact will Putin's War Have on the Middle East العالم تغير في 24 فبراير 2022: ما هو تأثير حرب بوتين على الشرق الأوسط؟

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy leading Ukraine's war against Putin's aggression
What impact’s is Vladimir Putin’s brutal attack on Ukraine having on the Middle East?  Many observers, both analysts and lay people, feel that, as long as NATO stays out of the conflict, the rest of the world need not worry about the war because no nuclear weapons will be used as a result.  However, we only need look at one region of the world, the Middle East, to realize that it’s naïve to think that the invasion of Ukraine’s impact will be limited to the two countries fighting the current war. 

First, there is the issue of food insecurity.  The MENA region and much of Africa is highly dependent on Russia and Ukraine which produce roughly 30% of the world’s wheat, a grain critical to the diet of millions of people and one that helps prevent starvation. 

In North Africa, Ukraine War Strains Economies Weakened by Pandemic  

 

Egypt, for example, has been having problems feeding its ever-growing population for many decades. Already food prices are high and the lack of wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine will only increase prices still further.  What is highly disturbing is that rising wheat process may lead to serious problems for the poor in Egypt and many other nations. 

Egypt: Bread Prices Soar Amid Effects of Crisis

 

Second, there is the increased tension between the major Arab oil producing countries in the MENA region, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and the US and European Union.  The West’s stringent sanctions regime has made it much harder for Russia to not only export its oil and natural gas but to sustain the financing of its energy industry given its inability to access foreign currency.  Investors always fears of the economic consequences war. The reduction of Russian oil and natural gas exports, however limited, still is forcing the price of oil and natural gas to skyrocket. 

 

In natural gas production, Qatar has stepped in willingly to try and meet rising global demand to offset cuts in Russian natural gas to Europe, whether as a result of sanctions or Putin’s decisions to reduce the flow.  However, both Saudi Arabia and, initially, the UAE have refused to increase production which they both could do quickly. 

 

What is especially disturbing is that leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE refused to take telephone calls from President Joe Biden.  Not only was this an insult to the US president, but it demonstrated how the US and the West can no longer depend on these two powerful oil-producing countries to sacrifice profits when it comes to global security. 

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls with Biden during Ukraine Crisis  

 

However, today we learned that the UAE has agreed to increase oil production outside the OPEC+ agreement with Russia. Putin shrewdly pushed this agreement prior to the invasion of Ukraine in an effort to prevent Saudi Arabia and the UAE – which have spare capacity (2 million barrels/day and one million barrels/per day respectively) – from filling the gap if Russian oil was sanctioned. 

Oil Prices Retreat as UAE Proposes OPEC Increase Oil Production at a Faster Pace

 

If Saudi Arabia, which indicated it was disturbed not to have been informed of the UAE decision before it was announced, thinks that partnering with Russia (and China) offers a better option than its traditional alliance with the United States and Europe, then Muhammad Bin Salman and the Saudi leadership are very foolish indeed.  Russia is led by an unpredictable leader, as his strategically disastrous miscalculation of the invasion of Ukraine demonstrates.   


China is a global economic power which is still constrained in its technological growth by a highly authoritarian and likewise unpredictable regime.  In nether Russia or China, does the rule of law exercise much influence.  Further, the Saudi and Arab Gulf economies are highly intertwined with American banks, investment firms and corporations. To jeopardize these ties makes no sense.  

 

A third area of impact is less visible but may play a greater role in the coming days and weeks.  There have been reports that Putin is trying to recruit Syrian fighters from Bashar al-Asad’s regime.  These fighters have been involved in urban warfare against radical Islamists in Syria.  Using foreign fighters like these could cut Russian troop losses which are already estimated to be 12,000 killed and over 30,000 wounded. In Putin's view, instead of having troops in body bags returned to Russia, have them go to Syria and other MENA region allies. 

Russia Recruiting Syrians for Urban Combat in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say

 

Other candidates for Putin’s recruitment strategy could be Iran, Iraq and Lebanon.  Iranian troops, who are part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), could join the mercenaries brought to the battlefield in Ukraine to augment Russian forces.  In Iraq, there has been a not inconsiderable public support for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine from militias (al-Hashad al-Shacbi) which support Iran.  Posters of Putin haven been seen in parts of Baghdad and elsewhere.  Finally, Lebanon’s Hizballah might also send forces to fight in Ukraine. 

Ukraine war highlights internal divides in Mideast nations 

 

Needless to say, fighters participating in Ukraine’s war with Russia will further contribute to political polarization and instability in the Middle East.  Because the fighters would be overwhelmingly Alawites or Shica, this development would frighten Sunni Arab countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states. Their response would be to use sectarian rhetoric to prop up their social base in their respective countries. 

 

Fourth, there is the possible global impact of Russia’s inability to service its foreign debt. According to most projections, it will default on its foreign debt in April and beyond. The impact of Russia's default will be to frighten foreign investors, especially those with exposure to emerging market countries, such as Brazil, India, China and, in the Middle East, Egypt and Turkey, and withdraw their funding for projects in these countries. 

Russia's 'Imminent' Default would be Catastrophic. Here's Why


The lack of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which many emerging market countries have depended on, will only further erode their economic development.  Thus, we see that the international sanctions, historically the most stringent on a country the size of Russia, are not only directly affecting Putin’s regime, but having an economic impact far beyond the Ukraine war.   

 

Finally, there is the strong inventive which Putin’s invasion has sparked for European countries to switch their energy supplies from dependence on Russia. While natural gas will no doubt play a longer term role in Europe’s energy needs, the reduction of oil imports will speed up as governments ramp up building wind and solar energy farms and use financial incentives to foster their citizens to switch from combustion vehicles to electric cars. 


This means a decline in demand for oil from MENA region oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Libya and the Arab Gulf states. Because most analysts have believed that demand for oil wouldn't experience a serious decline before 2030, the huge mistake Putin made by invading Ukraine may actually be to speed up the transition to renewable sources of energy, thereby reducing revenues to Russia and Middle East oil producers.