The Syrian Earthquake: What Role Should the United States Play الزلزال السوري: ما هو الدور الذي يجب أن تلعبه الولايات المتحدة؟

Syrians celebrating the downfall of Bashar al-Asad's regime

The Middle East never fails to surprise. The despotic al-Asad regime's fall is no exception. No one would have predicted in late November that the regime was about to be toppled, and then in little more than a week. Now that Bashar al-Asad and the sclerotic regime he ruled is gone, what is Syria's future? How will the ancien regime's fall affect the larger Middle East and beyond? What role should the US play in a post-Asad Syria?

Above all, the central question is whether the new regime, dominated by the Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS), will be able to rule a country which has experienced 13 years of a devastating civil war.  Statements made by HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara' (nom de guerre, Abu Muhammad al-Julani) have emphasized that the new order will not be based on radical Islamism to which HTS once adhered. Ideology, he says, is one thing, ruling a multi-ethnic and multi-confessional state is another. If symbols matter, al-Shara' has already shed his military uniform for a suit and tie. 

al-Shara' has sought to reassure Syria's minority populations, especially Christians, Alawites and Druze, that they have nothing to fear from the new regime and that their traditions and religious practices will be respected. HTS' relation to Syria's Kurdish population (the Rojava or "Western" Kurds) is less clear. Its military, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), control one-third of the northeastern portion of the country. 

The threat posed by the Islamic State The new Syrian regime lacks adequate human resources to rule the entire country. This means that a power vacuum has opened in different parts of the country. There is a reason why, shortly after Bashar al-Asad was deposed, the United States bombed Islamic State camps in Central and Eastern Syria. The US messaged the IS that it would not tolerate the change in regimes leading to a return of the IS' "caliphate" which could plunge Syria into yet another protracted conflict.

Most importantly for the Syrian people's sake, it is critical that the Islamic State not be allowed to capture territory that it once controlled after Syria's Arab Spring uprisings. But the concern with the reestablishment of the Islamic State also has regional and international implications. Should the Islamic State reconstitute itself, it would present a threat not only to Syria but to Iraq, Jordan and other parts of the Arab world as well. 

Currently, there are 60,000 Islamic State fighters and their families being held in prisons in Eastern Syria, mostly in the al-Hawl (al-Hol) Camp and the al-Hasakah Prison.  Despite limited resources, it is the SDF which struggles to keep order inside the detention centers, particular at the large al-Hawl Camp. Few countries have agreed to repatriate their imprisoned citizens, leaving the Rojava Kurds to deal with the problem. CENTCOM Commander General Michael Kurilla says ISIS Detainees are "an army in waiting"

The Future of the Rojava Kurds Syria's Kurdish population in the north and northeast of the country was horribly mistreated by the al-Asad regime, both Hafez al-Asad (1973-2000), and then Bashar. The Ba'thist regime in Damascus considered the Kurds non-Syrian and refused them citizenship and landownership rights. Under the al-Asad regimes, Kurds could lose their land at any time and be imprisoned without cause.

The Arab Spring uprisings, which began in Syria in 2011, allowed the Rojava Kurds to break away from Damascus' control and establish a quasi-state in 3 non-contiguous areas along the Turkish border in the north and northeastern parts of the country. The Kurds, in cooperation with local Arabs, established the Autonomous Administration in North and North East Syria (ANEES) in 2012.  

When United States, Iraqi and Iranian forces began their assault on the Islamic State, the SDF's military arm, the YPG (People's Protection Unit), which includes male and female units, played an essential role in helping to fight and later defeat the Islamic State.  The YPG was able to prevent the Islamic State from seizing the city of Kobane on the Northern border with Turkey after a 9 month battle in 2015. Their forces rolled into Raqqa, the Islamic States's capital, which they seized in 2017.The People’s Protection Units’ Branding Problem Syrian Kurds and Potential Destabilization in Northeastern Syria

Why do the Rojava Kurds need international protection? The reasons are domestic, regional and international. Most importantly, the Kurds have been critical in preventing the return of the Islamic State.  Should they lose international support, particularly from the United States which maintains a force of almost 2000 troops in Eastern Syria, the SDF would have difficulty containing a resurgent Islamic State.

When the Islamic State began to expand its grip on large areas of east and central Syria, the SDF, working with American and Iraqi forces, played a key role in the ultimate collapsed of the Islamic State's so-called Caliphate in March 2019. The ability of the SDF and allied forces, such as its female militia the YPJ, earned the AANES the gratitude of all ethnic and confessional groups in eastern and northern Syria for ridding the region of Islamic State terrorists.

Erdogan, HTS and the Islamic State The two villains in Syria's ongoing political crisis have been Bashar al-Asad and President Recip Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey.  Bashar al-Asad ruled a tyrannical regime. His war on the Syrian people led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands and the displacement of half the country's population.  His prisons, such as the notorious Saydnaya prison in Damascus, were known as slaughterhouses where tens of thousands of prisoners died under horrible conditions, including the widespread use of torture.

But Bashar is finished, having fled Syria on December 8th for Russia where he was granted political asylum.  The key leader standing in the way of a potentially positive transition to a more tolerant and even democratic country is Turkiye's Recip Tayyip Erdogan.  Turkiye's president is determined to destroy the experiment in self-rule that the Kurds and other ethnic groups enjoy in the AANES.

Erdogan's attitude towards Islamist extremists has been highly equivocal. As an example, during the 9 month siege of Kobane, Turkish troops stood by with their tanks overlooking the town from the Turkish side of the border while hundreds of SDF fighters were wounded and died repulsing continued Islamic State assaults. Had the Turkish army intervened on the side of the SDF, the IS would have been quickly defeated.

Because Erdogan has been a strong backer of HTS, and funds Syrian militias, such as the Syrian National Army, whose name belies its complete control by Turkiye's armed forces, he now wields significant influence in post-Aaad Syria. Erdogan has threatened on numerous occasions that he will invade northeastern Syria if the SDF do not lay down their arms. Speaking to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdogan said on December 24th that: “The separatist murderers will either bid farewell to their weapons, or they will be buried in Syrian lands along with their weapons.” Erdogan says YPG ‘will be buried’ in Syria if it doesn’t lay down arms

The US role in post-Asad Syria. The US is central to preventing a reconstituted Islamic State from gaining power again in Syria.  Not only is the US the most important military force in Eastern Syria, but it has the backing of NATO and the European Union in containing the Islamic State. If the new Syrian regime wants to be internationally recognized and receive the desperately needed foreign aid to rebuild the Syrian state, it will depend in this process on the US and the West.

The US maintains a force of roughly 2000 troops in Eastern Syria. It should make clear to the new regime in Damascus that it has no desire to permanently station troops in Syria. Because the HTS has fought the Islamic State in the area it controlled surrounding the city of Idlib in northern Syria, it is committed to eliminating the IS as is the US and its Western and Arab allies, Iraq and Jordan. 

Meanwhile, the chaos caused by the rapid collapse of the Syrian Army in face of the HTS attacks meant that considerable weaponry was abandoned.  Many Syrian Army units saw little reason to confront the HTS and simply abandoned their posts, shedding uniforms and weapons. Thus, a large amount of weapons fell into the hands of Islamic State terrorists. Their threat to Syria's new regime has only increased since Bashar al-Asad's ouster. Fears Grow of Islamic State’s Re-Emergence in Syria

Working together with the new regime to defeat the IS would serve to create new ties and trust between the US and the HTS. A relationship of trust will be crucial if the US is to wean the new regime away from its traditional dependence on Turkiye. Erdogan will use every tool he has to use the HTS to undermine the AANES and the SDF in Eastern Turkey.

Beyond establishing a working relation ship with Ahmad Shara' and the HTS regime, the US must make clear to Erdogan that it will not tolerate a Turkish military incursion into northeastern Syria. If the SDF was attacked by Turkish forces and many of its fighters killed or wounded, that would constitute a severe setback in the effort to prevent the Islamic State from using the resulting power vacuum to reestablish more bases in central and Eastern Syria.

Donald Trump has indicated that he "wants nothing to do" with the current political upheaval in Syria.  Fortunately, both Senator Marco Rubio, Secretary of State designate, and former congressman Michael Waltz, National Security Advisor designate, both understand the danger that the Islamic State still poses.  

Their job should be to convince Trump that withdrawing US forces from Syria would have grave consequences for Syria and the larger MENA region. It would send a message to Islamic State terrorists in Iraq that they now enjoy greater latitude of action in north central Iraq as well as in Syria.  Trump must be informed that use of airpower again the IS is no substitute for American boots on the ground.

Even before he assumes office, Donald Trump is learning that isolationism is not a viable policy when it comes to dealing with terrorism.  The Islamic State continues to mount attacks in in Syria and Iraq and has large sums of money hidden away with which to purchase arms and compensate its fighters. The IS-inspired attack in New Orleans in the early morning hours of New Year's Day, which killed 14 people and wounded dozens, underscores how its global reach still threatens countries around the world. What to Know About the Islamic State

Climate Migration and the Populist Threat to Europe

The Climate Emergency is upon us. Extreme weather events, droughts, wildfires and rising sea levels which were predicted to occur between 20-230 and 2050 are already running rampant globally.  No region is most prone to global warming than the Middle East (MENA).  What are the political implications of the Climate Emergency for MENA and what will be the affect on regions beyond?

The most significant impact of the Climate Emergency on the MENA region is to dramatically increase climate migration.  The core problem is increasing temperatures and drought which are producing a regional water crisis.  In Iraq, home of the storied Fertile Crescent, the country's water shortage is reaching a crisis level.  Salt water from the Mediterranean is encroaching on the Nile's 2 tributaries rendering adjacent farm land uncultivable. Jordan's aquifer is being depleted while Tunisia's agricultural sector is facing collapse due to lack of irrigation. Jordan gets $250m funding to tackle water crisis

In the Gulf region, Iran has been forced to move residents 2 of its southwest provinces becase water resources have dried up.  It is rated as the country with fourth most sever water crisis.

Middle East is home to 1/2 billion with roughly 40% under the age of 18.  The combination of a "youth bulge," authoritarian rule, widespread corruption and few options for employment without "wasta" (elite connections), MENA youth are highly discontented. Add the deleterious impact of rapid climate change, ad we see a toxic brew.

Many regimes in the Middle East used their purported revolutionary bona fides to establish political legitimacy. While Nasser's Arab socialism, or the Ba'th Party's vow in Syrian and Iraq to reestablish the glory of the ancient Arab-Islamic empires, or the National Liberation Front (FLN) in Algeria. 

The so-called Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the few regimes which still keeps up the illusion of revolutionary change.  However, its "revolutionary" activity is to have crated a network of militias in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen and to have propped up the sclerotic regime of Bashar al-Asad in Syria. Domestically, its "revolutionary" activity involves arresting, imprisoning ans sexually abusing women who fail to adhere to the regime's hijab law and to executing males who dare to criticize the regime's repression. 

Instead, most regimes in the Middle East, whether republican or monarchical, no longer pretend to be pursuing major political-structural change. Ideology is dead. Instead, a corrupt crony capitalism defines the nature of rule in the MENA region. Even in Turkey, which once posed a "neo-Ottoman" Islamism, ideology has given way to force and imprisonment. Antonio Gramsci once defined hegemony as "an iron fist clothed in velvet."  In the MENA region today, no regime enjoys hegemonic control.

In his classic study, Exit, Voice and Loyalty, Albert O. Hirschman argued that firms or political systems in decline offered its members 3 options, leave the troubled venue, protests against the crisis, or keeping a stiff upper lip and accepting the status quo. For youth in the MENA region, protest has been violently suppressed, whether the Arab Spring uprisings or the Green Revolution in Iran. For youth who desire a better future, exit is the only possible response 

Even the 2005 Cedars Revolution in Lebanon, which forced the Syrian Army o leave Lebanon, and the 2022 Hirak protests in Algeria, which ousted President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika, failed to bring about meaningful political change. Tunisia, the one purported success story of the Arab Spring uprisings, reverted to authoritarians under the rule of President Ka'is Said in 2021.  Under these circumstances - political repression and unemployment or underemployment, the climate crisis will only exacerbate the problems facing youth in the MENA region.  

There are 3 routes to Europe for migrants leaving the MENA region. Two are no longer viable. It is difficult to cross Turkey and Greece and then travel to the European Union through the the Balkans. Crossing the Mediterranean from Morocco to Spain is also no longer an option given border controls in place in both countries. Thus, the main route is to cross the Mediterranean from Libya to Italy, either to the Island of Lambadusa to to Sicily.

Officials have struggled to estimate the number of migrants who have crossed the Mediterranean Sea.  Many migrants have travelled in non-seaworthy vessels and died as a result. We do know that 157,631 migrants arrived in Italy in 2023.  The vast majority of migrants who leave North Africa do so from the beaches of Tunisia and to a lesser extent, from Libya

Saving American Democracy: The Most Consequential Election of our Lifetime!

Has any presidential candidate in US history ever made such a threat?

What makes a strong country? The unity of its people, their commitment to respect one another, the equal treatment of all citizens under the rule of law, the right of political participation for all citizens, and tolerance for ethnic, racial and religious diversity. These qualities create a powerful sense of community which engenders trust, a bedrock upon which democracy rests. 

What makes a weak country? Social disunity, "culture wars," the refusal to acknowledge difference - whether political, religious, ethnic or cultural - and the feeling by one demographic that it has a monopoly on virtue. Thus, its values and definition of the nation should prevail over all other groups. Once a particular demographic decides its social political cultural views must prevail over all others, democracy lacks the fertile soil it needs to survive.  As a result, it gradually withers away.

It is this context which leads to the question: Why is the November 2024 presidential election the most consequential in our lifetime?  The answer is that our democracy and the rule of law, the future of the planet, and the American economy will all be in jeopardy if Donald Trump becomes president of the United States. Why is this the case?

Democracy under threat Donald Trump demonstrated his contempt for democracy and the US Constitution during his term in office. He is the only president in US history to have organized efforts to subvert a presidential election. His mobilization of a crowd on January 6, 2021 to prevent the certification of Joe Biden, elected in fair and free election, was the first time in American history that a sitting president tried to prevent the peaceful transfer of power to his successor. Bob Woodward on ‘The Trump Tapes’ we haven’t heard

Recently, we learned that considerable financial support was provided by a variety of organizations for the January 6 demonstration. As we know, it turned into a violent attack designed to prevent Congress from certifying Joe Biden as POTUS. Police officers were severely injured by the mob which breached the US Capitol and one died as a result. Congressional representatives, including Vice President Mike Pence, had to fear for their lives and the Capitol building experienced serious property damage. New evidence unsealed of how Trump's Jan. 6, 2021 rally was funded

Trump's incitement of a mob attack on the US Capitol was accompanied by the creation of fake elector slates in several battleground states. Phony slates from Georgia, Arizona Michigan and other states argued that they, the supporters of Donald Trump, were the true electors. Some of these fraudulent electors are now on trial. 

Yet Trump has been able to delay his own legal reckoning through decisions. He has been helped by the Supreme Court, to which he appointed 3 justices who have formed a pro-Trump majority, and by a decision by a Florida district court judge, Aileen Cannon, who he also appointed, to dismiss the Department of Justice case of stolen government documents which were illegally transferred to Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate. 

Trump's consistent claim that the 2020 election was "stolen,"and his refusal even today to concede that he lost, have undermined democracy in the eyes of many Americans, especially members of the Republican Party. Over two-thirds of Republican voters actually believe that Trump won the 2020 election. As noted above, trust constitutes a precious form of social capital in any democracy. For a candidate for the American presidency to knowingly undermine such trust disqualifies that candidate from holding public office.

The Trump economy  Compounding Trump's threat to democratic governance was his incompetence  in running the United States. There continue to be voters who say that the economy defines their choice for POTUS. They point to the economy while Trump was in office when they say their financial condition was better than today. 

Trump claims he created a strong economy. Not true. Trump never admitted that he benefitted from the strong economy he inherited from the Obama administration. It was President Obama, not Trump, who pulled the US out of the global recession of 2008. Trump was the only president since Herbert Hoover in 1932 to leave office with less jobs in the American economy than when he became president.  

One reason the US economy lost jobs was the tariffs Trump imposed while in office. His policy sparked retaliatory tariffs which damaged the US economy causing a loss of jobs.  Trump says that, if elected, he will impose a new round of massive tariffs. Virtually all economists argue that the blanket tariffs Trump advocates will raise prices in the US, imposing in effect a sales tax of over $4000 for a family of four.  In other words, tariff is another word for tax.

Despite his promise to stem the offshoring of US manufacturing jobs,Trump neither created new manufacturing jobs nor did he stop their offshoring during his presidency (remember his promise to keep Carrier Air Conditioning jobs in the US after he took office?).  Trump vetoed a minimum wage bill and applauded Elon Musk when he fired Tesla workers who tried to establish a union. A friend of the working man and woman? Not at all. 

Trump's Covid-19 pandemic response Trump's policy on the Covid-19 pandemic was a disaster which caused many unnecessary deaths (Remember his suggestion that people with Covid-19 inject themselves with a cleaning agent?).  Trump's refusal to accept the advice of medical experts such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, who had led efforts to combat contagious diseases at the Center for Diseases Control in Atlanta since the 1980s, because members of his MAGA base, such as Florida governor Ron DeSantis, opposed vaccinations. As a result of Trump's politicization of the pandemic, many lives were lost which could have been saved. Coronavirus: Outcry after Trump suggests injecting disinfectant as treatment

How the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 will dismantle the US government

Project 2025 Despite his denials of knowing anything about Project 2025, when 78% of the contributors are former members of his administration. As Steven Rattner notes in his analysis of the 900 plus page document published by the ultra-conservative Heritage Foundation, "The plan would also raise taxes for American families making under $170,000 a year — nearly tripling them for a family earning $75,000 — while cutting them substantially for those with higher incomes." Project 2025 Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise

Rattner goes on to point out that the corporate tax rate, which Trump slashed from 36 to 21%, would be reduced still further.  The tax on capital gains would likewise be reduced, further benefitting the wealthy. Those middle class voters who think Trump will help their financial bottom line are sorely mistaken. How Project 2025 Would Change the Country 

Medical coverage for the American people would be significantly reduced should Trump be reelected.  In 1921, almost 95 million people were enrolled in Medicaid which equals about 5% of the US population. Lifetime enrollment would be capped causing many to lose their healthcare protection. Project 2025 Blueprint Also Includes Draconian Cuts to Medicaid 

The Head Start Program which primarily benefits rural counties would be cut. As Rattner points out, the share of Head Start childcare centers is 45% in very rural counties and 32% in rural counties, and only 13% in metropolitan areas. For rural Americans, voting for Donald Trump is. as my late mother used to say, "cutting off your nose to spite your face."

Project 2025 also attacks our public education system, both municipal and charter schools.  It would transfer taxpayer funds to private schools, many promoting a politicized religious education.  Not only would this undermine our national sense of community but promoting more divisiveness, but deprive poorer school districts, already suffering from lack of resources, of funds.

The abortion pill would be banned the drug mifepristone which is used to prevent the onset of pregnancy.  Project 2025, written almost exclusively by men, indicates no support for women's reproductive heath care rights. Indeed,  stringent anti-abortion bills, such as in Texas and Georgia, have already led to there deaths of women who needed to terminate their pregnancies due to health reasons because local physicians were afraid they would be prosecuted and jailed if they aborted those pregnancies.     

The Heritage Foundation is known for its hostility to labor unions. While Project 2025 contains a section on labor but offers no material benefits to the working men and women of our country.  It proposes top reduce the budget of the Department of Labor and restrict the powers of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC). It strongly condemns efforts to make the American work forces more diversified, implicitly marginalizing workers who are women and people of color.

Project 2025's conclusion to its section on labor (p. 681) shows no attention to the US government's need to train American workers in the skills needed for the 21st century economy, no support for laborers unionizing to protect their wages and working conditions, and no concern about how huge wealth inequality (which the  Project will dramatically increase) adversely affects workers

"The good of the American family is at the heart of conservative labor policy recommendations. The longstanding tradition of a strong work ethic in American culture must be encouraged and strengthened by policies that promote family-sustaining jobs. By eliminating the policies promoted by the DEI agenda, promoting pro-life policies that support family life, expanding available apprenticeship programs including by encouraging the role of religious organizations in apprenticeships, making family-sustaining jobs accessible, simplifying employment requirements, and allowing employers to prefer American citizens when making hiring decisions, among the other policy recommendations discussed above, we can begin to secure a future in which the American worker, and by extension the American family, can thrive and prosper."

Finally, Project 2025 would greatly expand the president's power by stripping Federal employees of their civil service protections. Trump would be able to fire government employees at will and replace them with toady loyalists. 

In short, a Trump victory on November 5th would result in a serious negative impact on the United States. It would produce greater divisiveness and conflict in American society, undermine the economic fortunes of the middle and working classes, weaken US alliances like NATO and ties to the European union designed to prevent foreign enemies like Russia and China from threatening our country and its democracy, and further marginalize the "Other," namely, women, people of color, and members of the LGBTQ+ community. 

Trump has made clear that, if elected, his second administration will be dominated by three "Rs": reviling, revenge and retribution.  Analyses of Trump's speeches since 2016 demonstrate an increased calls for violence against those he perceives as enemies. Trump has promised to appoint loyalists to the Department of Justice which he will use to prosecute his opponents and put them in jail. This plan, which has repeatedly stated during his campaign rallies, has all the hallmarks of authoritarian rule.We analyzed 9 years of Trump political speeches, and his violent rhetoric has increased dramatically

Through imposing authoritarian rule on the United States, not addressing the growing climate crisis, and enacting policies which will cripple our public education system, Trump will deprive us of our most important investment in America's future - our youth. The "generation in waiting" - will become disillusioned with politics and be prevented from developing their aspirations and the initiatives we need to keep America great as we move further into the 21st century.

How Benjamin Netanyahu and the Extremist Far Right are Leading Israel Along a Path to Ruin

HAMAS' brutal attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, shocked the world. With young people at a music festival shot in cold blood, members of kibbutzim - many of whom had been working for peace - burned in their homes, and hostages taken into Gaza, including the very elderly, Israel engendered widespread sympathy and international support for destroying HAMAS and ending its rule in Gaza.

Subsequently, however, Israel has lost much of the support expressed at the time of the HAMAS incursion. Countless countries have heavily criticized its response to the attack which has destroyed 80% of Gaza's infrastructure and killed more than 41,000 Palestinians, the vast majority of whom are innocent civilians who have nothing to do with HAMAS' brutal policies.

HAMAS' ease in crossing the border into Israel exposed a colossal intelligence failure. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, it was revealed, had ignored warnings from the military of a possible attack in July 2023 while on vacation. Despite HAMAS' creation of a mock-up of an Israeli village next to its border with Israel, where fighters had been training for over a year and a half prior to the attack, the Israeli intelligence community didn't believe the terrorist organization posed a threat.

Following the attack, it was also revealed that Netanyahu had been funneling millions of dollars in aid, donated by Qatar, to the HAMAS terrorists. His goal was to weaken the Palestinian National Authority by propping up HAMAS and thwart the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. ‘Buying Quiet’: Inside the Israeli Plan That Propped Up Hamas

At first, it seemed that Israel's overwhelming air and fire power would quickly destroy HAMAS. However, as many analysts warned, Israel was being drawn into a trap.  Their predictions have come true. The Gaza War is now a year old. Israel has significantly degraded HAMAS as a military force, but has not been able to definitively defeat it. Despite sharp criticism, Netanyahu has refused to articulate a "day after" proposal for ending the Gaza War.

What does the year long Gaza War imply for Israel's future? In this post I make several arguments. First, Israel has lost a significant amount of legitimacy in the international community. Its ferocious bombing of Gaza has undermined a number perceptions of Israel as a result of its bombing campaign in Gaza. Second, the policies Benjamin Netanyahu has pursued in the fight against HAMAS have deepened political and cultural divides in Israeli society. 

Third, fighting a lengthy two front war, both in Gaza and against Hizballah in Lebanon, while sending security forces to protect settlers who are seizing Palestinian land in the West Bank, has placed a serious strain on the Israeli economy. Fourth, the war has damaged Israel's psyche. Finally, Israel has isolated itself from the Arab world, making it more vulnerable to Iranian attacks.

The end of the David vs. Goliath myth As the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have engaged in a ferocious bombing campaign in Gaza, and more recently in Lebanon, it is clear that Israel possesses a vast superiority in air power, intelligence, military technology, and ground forces compared to its adversaries. Thus, the traditional view of Israel as a small state surrounded by powerful enemies  - a view that was already undermined by its decisive victories in the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars - has been shattered once and for all.

The end of the idea of Israel as the sole democracy in the Middle East  Before the October 2023 HAMAS attack, Israel's democracy was under severe threat as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in an effort to please the extremist far right parties in his coalition on which his government depends, sought to eliminate the power of Israel's Supreme Court. 

Because the court is the only institution which can check the power of the Knesset, Israel's unicameral legislature, hundreds of thousands of Israelis mounted demonstration's for 33 weeks to protest these efforts. It was only a national general strike, which shut down the Israeli economy, which forced Netanyahu to put his attack on the Supreme Court on hold.

Efforts by the Netanyahu government to curb foreign press coverage of the Gaza War, its failure to curb violent attacks by West Bank settlers against Palestinians, which have resulted in over 600  deaths since the October 7th HAMAS attack, and the destruction of their homes and crops, demonstrates an absence of the rule of law. The loss of employment by Palestinian Israelis who have either expressed sympathy for civilian deaths in Gaza or criticized Netanyahu's war policies underscore still further the curtailing of free speech by Israeli citizens.  

Undermining the Israeli economy. What has largely slipped under radar in media reporting on the Gaza War's damage to Israel's economy. The year long war with HAMAS, which has now extended to Hizballah in Lebanon and the West Bank, has has had a serious negative financial impact. In 2019, for example, tourism accounted for $8.5bn in national revenue. That revenue has now largely dried up.  Since the war began, tourism has dropped by 75% War in Gaza has plunged Israel’s tourism industry into a crisis it will struggle to recover from

Much more damaging is the cost to the Israel's economy resulting from the large numbers of its citizens being called up for military duty. Maintaining a small standing army, Israel instead depends on reservists who train regularly. At least 350,000 reservists have been called for duty since the Gaza War began. With hundreds of thousands of Israelis leaving their jobs to fight on in a three front war, many businesses have been hard pressed to function. Israel-Gaza War: As war widens and costs mount, Israel’s economy is in ‘serious danger’

The overall economic impact  While Israel possesses military superiority, the one area in which it is deficient is in its small population. Add to this the large number of male religious Jews, the Haredim - who study Torah and are exempt from military duty , and the scope oif the problem is clear. 

According to the Bank of Israel, Israel's military operations are costing the Israeli economy $600M a week due to work absences, according to the Bank of Israel, about 6% of the weekly GDP.  The bank's estimate don't reflect the total damage to the economy or damages caused by the absence of Palestinian and foreign workers. Israel's treasury minister indicated that the Gaza war's daily cost is about $246 million per day. Over 100,000 Palestinian workers are no longer employed by Israeli companies.  

After the war began, it was estimated that if fighting continued for eight to twelve months, the cost of the war to the Israeli economy would be more than $50bn, or close to 10% of GDP, according to Calcalist, the daily Israeli business and economics newspaper. 

Citing early Ministry of Finance figures, Calcalist's estimates assumed the war would be limited to Gaza. It did not account for further escalation, such as with Hizballah and West Bank Palestinians, especially youth, who have responded to settlement attacks. It also assumed that the 350,000  reservists called up for military duty would soon return to work. 

The war's has already reduced Israel's GDP growth from 6.5% in the year before the HAMAS attack to its current 2%. The war is expected to cost Israel's economy over $400bn over the next decade.  Consumer spending, imports, and exports have all declined significantly, adversely affecting Israel's credit rating Moody's Ratings downgrades Israel's ratings to Baa1, maintains negative outlook

In 2015, the RAND Corporation conducted a study to determine the long term impact if Israel became involved in a protracted war. It argued that 90 percent of the economic shock for Israel would be indirect effects: reduced investment, a disrupted labor market, and slowed productivity growth. From the Ashes of Hamas-Israel War, Can Economics Drive Peace?

Agriculture and the construction sectors One of the areas hit hardest in the Israeli economy are the agricultural and construction sectors.  Palestinian workers from the West Bank, and to a lesser degree from Gaza, played a central role in planting and harvesting crops. In Israel, these workers have been central to the construction industry, including, ironically, building new settlements on the West Bank on land seized from Palestinians.

Despite attempts to recruit Indian and Sri Lankan workers, its remains unclear how Israel will be able to sustain its agricultural production and construction projects. After the HAMAS attack, Thai, Nepali and Tanzanian workers returned home. As it stands now, much of Israel's agricultural production will be lost due to the lack of labor to harvest it. As Agriculture Minister Oren Lavi noted, Israel is facing the greatest agricultural crisis since it was founded in 1948. War plunges Israeli agriculture into the greatest crisis in its history

Another negative impact of the Gaza War has been the attacks by Yemen's Houthis rebels on ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab as they enter the Red Sea. The Houthis claim they are preventing ships headed for Israel using the Red Sea in expressing solidarity with Palestinians being bombarded in Gaza.

Despite an international military coalition led by the United States, and attacks by Israel's air force on Houthi bases, the shelling and drone attacks on Red Sea shipping continue.  The dramatic reduction in shipping led the Israel Port Authority in Eliat to declare bankruptcy. Port of Eilat declares bankruptcy

Although Israel has killed Hasan Nasrallah and decimated the top leadership of Hizballah, the only way to end its launching of rockets into Israel is for the IDF to invade southern Lebanon.  However, as the Israeli occupation of south Lebanon between 1982 and 2000, and the 2006 Israel-Hizballah War has shown, an incursion into Lebanon will be extremely costly in terms of human losses on both sides. Can Israel’s economy survive an all-out war with Hizbullah

The Israeli psyche is hurting An unquantifiable impact of the Gaza War on Israel is the toll it is taking on the country's psyche. A number of Israelis who disagree with the war have left Israel. Large numbers of Israelis have continued to organzine large ongoing demonstrations. Angry with Benjamin Netanyahu, they have demanded that he implement an immediate ceasefire in Gaza so the remaining Israeli hostages who are still alive can return home.

Other Israelis who have been forced to leave from area along the northern border with Lebanon due to the rocket fire from Hizballah criticize the Netanyahu government for not clearing south Lebanon of Hizballah forces so they can return to their homes. Complaints have also been expressed by large number of Israelis who see the cost of living on the rise.

Yet the majority of Israelis have failed to confront the traditional response to the ongoing conflict with the Palestinians and their surrounding Arab neighbors. Responding to his participation the June 1967 Arab Israeli War, in which he lost a many friends, Israeli filmmaker, Ilan Ziv, directed and produced a powerful film, Abraham and Isaac (Icarus Films, 1977).

The film's purpose was to challenge the notion of 'ayn briera ("there is no choice").  In other words, Israel was condemned to a perpetual armed struggle with the Arab world which sought to destroy it.  For Ziv, the "no choice" mentality, namely to engage in armed conflict with the Arab world was self-defeating. His film's prediction that continuous conflict would severely damage Israel in the future has come to pass.

Abraham and Isaac's theme was the core of a recent commentary by the distinguished Haaretz newspaper commentator, Gideon Levy. He calls again into question of whether Israel can survive if it continues to embrace the notion of 'ayn breira.  Leyy poses the critical question: Do Israelis want to become a country that lives on Blood? 

In his column, Levy argues that: "The daily crimes of the occupation are already less relevant. Over the past year, a new reality of mass killings and crimes of an entirely different scale has emerged. We are in a genocidal reality, the blood of tens of thousands of people has flowed." The question remains: Will Israel continue to be embroiled in a "Forever War"? Israels Must Ask Themselves if They're Willing to Live in a Country That Lives on Blood.  

The danger the Netanyahu government poses to Israel  Fully cognizant that it was HAMAS' terrorist attack which started the war in Gaza, countless experts have argued that Netanyahu could have pursued the war without the massive destruction of Gaza, the 41,000 deaths, and hundreds of thousands wounded. 

But Netanyahu realizes that it was his failure which allowed HAMAS to attack Israel in the first place. He also heads a government of far right ultranationalist theocrats whose policies the majority of Israelis do not support, e.g., the transfer of funds by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich from their legally designated uses to illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank. 

These far right cabinet members, Itamar Ben Gvir, Minister of National Security, and Belazel Smotrich, Minister of Finance in particular, refuse to continuance any ceasefire with HAMAS. If Netanyahu agrees to a ceasefire, they threaten to bring down the government. They don't care about the fate of the remaining Israeli hostages.

Without continuing the Gaza War, Netanyahu fears that his far right extremists s will withdraw their support and he will lose his prime ministership.  Under indictment for corruption charges since 2019, Netanyahu fears that once he is no longer prime minister, he will be subject to trail again and possibly sent to jail.

The challenge of the Haredim. Israel's Supreme Court recently decided that the Haredim are no longer exempt from military duty.  This resulted in sharp rebukes from rabbis that thre decision was unjust.  Because the Haredim will constitute a majority of Israel's population by 2050, how can the military function if a large number of male Israelis refuse to serve in the military?

Israel's secular-religious divide is becoming ever more sharply defined. Secular Israelis, who provide the bulk of the country's tax revenues (because the Haredim don't work) and serve in the IDF, where they put themselves in harms way, are highly resentful of a "two tier" system of citizenship.  Some citizens, namely the Haredim, receive benefits such as the government's subsidies who neither pay taxes nor serve in the armed forces.

The future of Israel  Israel faces three threats in the future.  First, continued conflict will have a negative impact on foreign direct investment.  Despite Israel's reputation as a "startup country," foreign firms will not find a conflict zone to be an appealing investment venue.  

Given the charges against Prime Minister Netanyahu for engaging in genocide by the International Criminal Court, the first sanctions by the US on West Bank settlers who have attacked and killed Palestinian residents, and the rising crescendo of criticism throughout the world at the devastation being wreaked on Palestinian civilians in Gaza and the West Bank, and now Lebanon, will further disincentive foreign firms to invest in Israel.

Arab states which would find cooperating with Israel in financial initiatives and military purchases are unable or unwilling to participate in such ventures for fear of the Arab street. This barrier to rapprochement with powerful Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is yet another ares where the Israeli economy will be hurt.

The solution If Israel had pushed for the establishment of a Palestinian state after the the 1993 Oslo Accords, and before Yitzhak Rabin's assassination by a far right Israeli terrorist, I would not be writing this post today.  Palestinians have legitimate rights to self determination as voted on by the United Nations in 1947 through resolution 183 which created two states in Palestine- one Arab and one Jewish.

Attachment to the notion of 'ayn breira cannot bring a powerful end toi the Israel-Palestine dispute.  As long as the extremist far right, which seeks to transform Israel into a theocracy, remains in power, conflict will continue. Israel may win thecurrent battle with HAMAS and Hizballah, but lose the war in the process. 

By failing to pursue a peace with moderate Palestinians, who already agreed in 1993 at Oslo to recognize Israel and live side by side with the Jewish state, Israel may be signing its own death warrant. Beyond Historical Amnesia, Revenge and the Good-Evil Binary: Solving the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute Once and For All

How Jill Stein Poses a Threat to Palestinian Self-Determination and an American Post-Election Progressive Agenda

Jill Stein as a 2015 gala dinner guest of Vladimir Putin

Why is Jill Stein running for president of the United States? Why do we only see her active in national politics at presidential election time? While she claims to be an environmentalist, why is there no website which lists her accomplishments in saving our planet?  

Before answering these questions, let me offer the key arguments I raise: 1) Jill Stein only appears on the national scene during presidential elections; 2) she has not spent time apart from presidential elections building a national movement of environmentally active citizens as her Green Party title would suggest; 3) Jill Stein appears frequently on Russian dictator's Vladimir Putin's RT (Russian Today) propaganda television network, but rarely on appears in American media.

To continue: 4) her political criticism have been directed exclusively at the Biden administration and Democrats, with none directed at Trump; 5) the threat she presents to the Palestinians in Israel's Occupied Territories by helping elect Trump is an existential one which could see them expelled from their ancestral homeland; and 6) her helping Trump win will prevent the implementation of the progressive political agenda for the American middle and working classes which the Harris-Walz administration will enact. Russians launched pro-Jill Stein social media blitz to help Trump win election, reports say

In short, this post suggests that Stein's true motives for entering the 2024 presidential election have more to do with being a spoiler and helping to elect Donald Trump, than the reasons she publicly cites on social media. She disingenuously claims she is trying to break the two party hold on American elections and ending the rule of "corrupt elites." Stein's true goal is to prevent Harris-Walz ticket from winning Michigan and thus acquiring the 270 votes in the Electoral College required to win the presidency.Jill Stein: The Grifter Who May Hand Trump the White House Again

If we examine her campaign, and the Muslim running mate she chose to join her ticket as her vice presidential candidate, it's clear she's trying to prevent Kamala Harris and Tim Walz from winning in the state of Michigan. Because she has been able to get on the ballot in neighboring Wisconsin, she will try and prevent a Harris-Walz victory there as well. Because Stein knows full well that she has no chance of winning the 2024 election, why does she want Trump to win? Trump Allies Have a Plan to Hurt Biden’s Chances: Elevate Outsider Candidates

One doesn't have to believe in conspiracy theories to realize that Stein has close ties to Russian dictator, Vladimir Putin. This has been obvious now for over a decade. Of course, Putin would like Donald Trump to win the 2024 election because he knows the former president admires him and will certainly withdraw US military and financial aid to Ukraine if he beats the Harris-Walz ticket. Stein is part of Putin's effort to influence the 2024 American presidential election to promote his aggressive goals in Ukraine and Europe to recreate a new Soviet Union in the form of a Eurasian "Greater Russia."

How then does Stein pose a threat not only to the Harris-Walz ticket but to a progressive political agenda and the Palestinian attempts at self-determination? First, we need to disabuse ourselves of the idea that Stein's campaign is about breaking the hold of the Democrats and Republicans on elections. 

Stein's goal is not to reform our political system. There is no evidence of her working towards these ends when the United States isn't in a presidential election cycle. If Stein is against the two-party system why is she accepting support from the MAGA movement? GOP-connected super PAC spending to boost Jill Stein in Wisconsin

Second, Stein indicates that she strongly supports the Palestinian cause and the need for the Palestinian people to establish their own independent state. This is a goal which I've been advocating for for over 50 years - the two state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. A two state solution involves Israel and Palestine living side by side in peace and security and, over time, developing ties of economic cooperation and cultural exchanges.  

The two state solution is International law because the United Nations voted to create two states, one Jewish and one Arab, through Resolution 181 of November, 1947, following the end of Great Britain's League of Nations Mandate which ended in 1948. Thus, establishing a Palestinian state is not doing the Palestinians a "favor." Rather it is mandated by International Law. Beyond Historical Amnesia, Revenge and the Good-Evil Binary: Solving the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute Once and For All

But Stein is a "Mary Come Lately" supporter of the Palestinian cause. Reviewing her statements over the past 4 years, we see little to indicate that she has done anything to promote Palestinians' right to self-determination. Instead, her criticisms have been directed exclusively at the Biden administration and the Democratic Party. Nothing she has done during her career indicates any special concern for the Palestinian cause. 

To win votes in Michigan and Wisconsin, where she is trying to have her name placed on the ballot, Stein has recruited Dr. Butch Ware, a professor who teaches history at the University of California at Santa Barbara. Given Ware's West African heritage and Muslim faith, this choice is clearly designed to attract Arab American and Muslim votes as well as those of people of color, especially in Michigan.

Biden won Michigan by 154,000 votes in 2020. There are 220,000 registered Arab American voters in Michigan and, of course, large African American and Muslim demographics. By constantly attacking Biden, and directing none of her criticism at Trump, Stein's strategy is clear. Defeat the Harris-Walz ticket and throw the election to Trump by giving him Michigan's electoral votes, even if he receives a minority of the national popular vote as in 2016.

Who would be most pleased by a Trump victory? Certainly not Palestinians and those who support the Palestinian cause. As POTUS, Trump was a consistent supporter of Israel's far right. The vaunted Abraham Accords were designed to not only make money for the Trump family, including Jared Kushner, but to isolate the Palestinians still further and undermine their efforts to establish an independent state.Kushner Firm Got Hundreds of Millions From 2 Persian Gulf Nation

It is reported that Trump has asked Netanyahu, who visited his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida after his joint speech to Congress this past July, not to agree to ceasefire in Gaza so as not to strengthen the Harris-Walz ticket who he sees benefitting from ending the massive suffering there.

The Trump campaign's largest single contributor, Miriam Adelson, the widow of the late Las Vegas casino mogul, Sheldon Adelson, and Medal of Freedom winner for her contributions to the Trump campaign, has pledged to donate $100 million. Adelson, a dual-national who served in the Israeli army and lives in Israel, is one of the most powerful supporter of far right extremists in Israel. 

For Adelson, as for Israel's far right ultranationalist extremists such as Minsiter of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, and Bezalel Smotrich, Minister of Finance, expelling all Palestinians from East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza (the far right's equivalent to "From the River to the Sea") is the central goal of Israeli politics. GOP megadonor Miriam Adelson to fund colossal super PAC for Trump

If Stein is able to win Michigan for Trump, and Netanyahu and the far right are able to hang on to power, the expulsion of the Palestinians from their ancestral homeland is a forgone conclusion. Israel's far right extremists know that  Trump would do nothing to stop it. Once expelled to Jordan and into the Sinai Peninsula, the Palestinian cause would come to resemble the fate of native North Americans. They would never be able to return to their former homeland. A Clear and Present Danger: How Benjamin Netanyahu Threatens Peace in the Middle East and Global Stability

As of this writing, a poll shows Netanyahu beating his closest rival, former defense minister General Benny Gantz, in national elections by 2 points. By keeping the war going in Gaza, Netanyahu is clawing his way back into Israeli politics after being blamed, rightfully so, for the worst attack on the Jewish people since the Holocaust. Netanyahu has also been blamed for funding HAMAS with millions of Qatari dollars to weaken the Palestine National Authority and thereby prevent the establishment of an independent  Palestinian state ‘Buying Quiet’: Inside the Israeli Plan That Propped Up Hamas

There is another major player who will be delighted if Jill Stein helps defeat the Harris-Walz ticket, namely Vladimir Putin. Putin fears a Harris-Walz victory because he knows they will continue to support for Ukraine after the Russian dictator ordered an unprovoked invasion in February 2022. Ukraine needs United States and Western support as it struggles to prevent Russia from incorporating it into Putin's Greater Russia . Russians launched pro-Jill Stein social media blitz to help Trump win election, reports say

Jill Stein meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to
celebrate 10th anniversary of RT-Russia's propaganda outlet-in 2015

Stein has been on Putin's radar ever since she made her first presidential bid in 2012. While not appearing on American television or other media outlets, Stein has been a frequent guest of Putin's RT (Russia Today) propaganda media outlet. The US Senate launched an investigation after the 2016 election into Stein's ties to Russia. Did Jill Stein Help Elect Donald Trump?  

While Stein claims that the US Senate investigation found nothing illegal in her behavior, that isn't the point. Simply being on the Michigan ballot in 2016 helped defeat Hillary Clinton. She now seeks to do the same to Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in Michigan,Wisconsin and other states. Senate Russia investigators are interested in Jill Stein

Jill Stein is a plant for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. She is exploiting the horrors of the Gaza War which has devastated Palestinian society there and led to the death of over 41,000 Palestinians, the majority women and children. We can and should be critical of Joe Biden for not forcefully preventing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from using American heavy weaponry to turn Gaza into a moonscape.

However, Kamala Harris is the only American political leader who will be able and willing to curb the excesses of Israel's far right extremists.  She has made it clear that she supports a Palestinian state as she did in her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention last week. The two state solution is part of the Democratic Party's official platform, but not part of the GOP's policy agenda. This commitment by the Democrats is the first time ever that an American political party has officially committed to establishing an independent Palestinian state.

As Vice President, it has been Harris who has pushed Biden to bring about an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and provide more civilian aid to starving Palestinians. Her concern with civilian deaths was evident in her speech after meeting Netanyahu in Washington, DC, this past July. Harris told him that Israel has the right of self defense but that it matters "how Israel defends itself."

A vote for Harris is a vote for a POTUS who cares about the American people and will bring justice to the Palestinian cause. Solving the Israel-Palestine dispute will also give Israel the peace it longs for and deserves. As Peter Beinart points out in an excellent essay, Harris can start the peace process by invoking the Leahy Law which makes it illegal to use American weaponry to cause human rights abuses. Harris Can Change Biden’s Policy on Israel Just by Upholding the Law

A vote for Jill Stein is a vote against the Palestinian people, against the American middle and working classes and a vote for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, one a wannabe autocrat, the other a vicious dictator. Green Party's Jill Stein 'refuses' to call Assad, Putin war criminals like Israel's Netanyahu

Presidential Candidate Jill Stein pictured in Moscow’s
Red Square during the RT Anniversary Conference.

Who will Best Serve American and Middle East Interests Following the US Presidential Elections?

One of the most important issues which will confront the next US president is the political instability in the Middle East. Which candidate is up to the job? What crises will she or he face and what policies will the US need to put in play to address them?

Donald Trump When answering these questions, we already have Donald Trump's four year track record in Middle East foreign policy. Trump made some decisive decisions. For example, he ordered the US withdrawal in May 2018 from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or "Iran Nuclear Deal," which sought to slow Iran's development of enriched uranium which could be used to manufacture nuclear weapons.  

Trump was also known for killing Maj. General Qasem Sulemani, head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which is responsbile for organizing and funding pro-Iranian militias in Lebanon, Iraq, and Gaza and protecting Bashar al-Asad's Syrian regime. Sulemani's assassination by a drone strike at the Baghdad airport in January 3, 2020 dealt a major blow to Iran's military establishment.

The Trump administration was best known for the Abraham Accords. This agreement led the United Arab Emirates, Bahrein, Morocco and the Sudan to recognize Israel (in the case of Sudan, in exchange for considerable amount of US funds and debt relief).  The Accords sought to lay the basis for enticing Saudi Arabia to join the accords. The process of establishing Israeli-Saudi diplomatic ties was underway when the brutal HAMAS attack on Israel occurred on October 7, 2023.

Trump moved the United States Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Because Jerusalem remains a contested city, Trump's decision reversed the policy of all prior US presidents since Israel was established in 1948.  Trump's decision helped promote the fortunes of Israel's far right, ultranationalist coalition which now rules Israel, albeit with only a few seat margin in Israel's Knesset (parliament).  

Israel's far right has been arguing for years that Jerusalem belongs entirely to Israel. Thus, Trump's decision strengthened their political position. Those Palestinians, Israelis and American policy-makers who see a two state solution as the only way to solve the Israel-Palestine dispute were completely marginalized during the Trump administration.  

As part of the two state solution, in which Trump showed no interest, Israel and a new Palestinian state would share Jerusalem (West to Israel, East to Palestine) as their mutual capital. However, the Abraham Accords were designed to strengthen Israel's right wing, exclude the Palestine National Authority, and undermine the possibility of an independent Palestinian state. 

However, the real driver behind the Trump administration's Abraham Accords was not creating peace between Arabs and Israelis. In developing the Accords, Trump hoped his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, would use the Accords to generate more investment opportunities for their real estate ventures in the United States and Middle East and eventually open a path to Saudi Arabia's huge sovereign wealth fund and burgeoning real estate market. 

Under Saudi ruler, Muhammad bin Salman's Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia is attempting to diversity its economy and move away from dependence on oil. One avenue of the plan is developing a large tourist industry.  The new tourist sector requires significant investments in infrastructure, e.g., hotels, transportation, restaurants, tourist attractions and domestic and foreign tourist agencies.

That the profit motive was a key factor in the Abraham Accords can be seen by the $200 million the United Arab Emirates invested in Jared Kushner's firm Affinity Partners which was followed by a similar amount by Qatar.  Exiting the White House in 2021, Affinity Partners benefited from $2.5 billion in investments by Persian Gulf states. 

While such wheeling and dealing with foreign governments has occurred in previous administrations after leaving office, the funds Kushner received far exceed those of the past officials. Former Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, also benefitted financially from ties to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. (So much for "draining the swamp.") Kushner Firm Got Hundreds of Millions From 2 Persian Gulf Nations

While Trump devoted relatively little attention to the Middle East, leaving development of the Abraham Accords to Jared Kushner, he did try and withdraw American forces from Northeast Syria.  Despite its small size, roughly 900 troops in all, Trump wanted to save money. Fortunately, he deferred to his generals who argued that US forces in Syria played a critical role in preventing the Islamic State (IS) from reestablishing itself along the Syrian-Iraqi border region.  

Having overseen the killing of the IS' "caliph," Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October 2019, Trump and then President Mike Pence declared that the Islamic State had been defeated. Just like President George W. Bush's declaration of the end of the war in Iraq under a large banner on the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln which said "mission accomplished," this statement was premature. Significant numbers of IS attacks continue to this day in eastern Syrian and north western Iraq.

Finally, we should remember that, in January 2017, Trump imposed his infamous "Muslim ban," which prevented Muslims from from Iraq, Syria, Sudan, Somalia and Yemen from entering the United States. While this ban played well with his political base, it left a very sour taste in the minds of many Muslims in the Arab world.  

Trump's strong support of Benjamin Netanyahu while president, who has been responsbile for appropriating Palestinian land in the West Bank, and the excessively large numbers of Palestinians killed in the Gaza War (40,000 at this writing), has stirred up significant anger in the Middle East.  If Trump is reelected president, many Arab leaders may be reluctant to engage his administration for fear of the negative reaction among their populaces.

In sum, as president, Trump showed little interest in the Middle East or foreign affairs generally.  His foreign policy, when it came into play, was largely transactional and short-term in focus. There was no global vision. His isolationism didn't serve the United States well while he was in office and it won't serve the United States well if he's reelected.

Kamala Harris Vice-President Harris benefits from not having the political baggage of Donald Trump's policies in the Middle East. At the same time, she needs to articulate a positive vision of United States policy in the Middle East both to attract voters in November but also, if elected, to establish quickly, a strong rapport with political leaders and the peoples of the region.

Jim Zogby, a highly respected Arab-American commentator, recently spoke with Harris and commented that she shows much more empathy towards the innocent Palestinians who are being killed in the Gaza War than Biden.  In fact, there has been reporting that she has been responsible for urging Biden to more forcefully express his concerns for civilian deaths and the suffering millions of Gazans are experiencing from a war none of them started.How to Pick Biden’s Replacement? James Zogby & LaTosha Brown Debate Wisdom of an Open Convention

After meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House following his speech to a Joint Session of Congress on July 24th, Harris told him that she supports Israel but that the way in which it defends itself matters. As Vice-President, Harris would usually be expected to chair the Joint Session. However, she said she had prior appointments which prevented her from doing attending Netanyahu's speech.

Kamala Harris will also strongly support NATO, unlike Trump who has shown little interest in US participation in the alliance.  Indeed, Trump might decide to withdraw the US from NATO if reelected.  A strong US hand in NATO has implications for the Middle East. With less US involvement, Turkish president Recip Tayyip Erdogan will feel freer to pursue destabilizing policies which contradict US and European Union goals in the region.  

Erdogan's attacks on the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), one of the few examples of democratic governance in the Middle East, would only intensify if there is a less cohesive NATO devoid of active US participation. Erdogan sees the AANES's focus on gender equality, ethnic diversity and sustainable development as an enticing  model for Turkey's own Kurds who he has marginalized politically and economically. Thus, he seeks to destroy the AANES.

Not only has the Turkish president attacked the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a militarily sophisticated multiethnic force in the AANES, but he has helped the Islamic State in its efforts to reestablish itself in eastern Syria and north central Iraq.  If Trump were elected and removed the existing contingent of US forces in eastern Syria, this would encourage Erdogan's to increase his attacks on the AANES still further which would facilitate the return of the IS.

Harris will continue the NATO policy of strongly supporting Ukraine in its struggle against Putin's invasion which has wreaked havoc on the country. Strong support for Ukraine policy has implications for the Middle East, namely Iran's economic stability.  If Trump were elected and decided to withhold further military and financial support for Ukraine, thus allowing Putin to annex those parts of Ukraine Russian forces have already seized, then Russia would find funds freed to provide further military support for Iran and its nuclear weapons program.

To date, Putin has benefitted form the purchase of cheap Iranian drones which have strengthened Russian forces on the battlefield. In exchange, Russia has supplied Iran with fighter jets and provided technology for building a nuclear reactor which most analysts believe will be used by Tehran to further its nuclear weapons program. If Iran were strengthened, this could have a "domino effect" as Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf states might then turn to China for weapons, fearing lack of US support for their regimes. 

Although it doesn't receive adequate attention, the Middle East is facing the world's worst climate crisis.  Speaking with Egyptian and Iraqi friends and colleagues, they indicate that water is on the minds of everyone. Both Egypt and Iraq are completely dependent for their water supply on two main river systems, the Nile in Egypt and the Tigris and Euphrates in Iraq.  

Both river systems are experiencing problems. In Egypt, these include saline water entering the Nile from the Mediterranean as seawater rises globally as well as possible constraints on Nile water supplies caused by Ethiopia's new Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. 

In Iraq, saline water has entered the Shatt al-'Arab (confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates north of Basra) from rising Persian Gulf waters which has destroyed its storied date trees and crop along the riverbanks. Turkey's damming of the Euphrates River has significantly reduced water flow in the river as have dams constructed in Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government and in Iran reduced water flow in the Tigris.

Having passed the most comprehensive climate legislation of any nation in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration has had its eyes focused on confronting the climate emergency caused by drought, excessive heat and weather events, and wildfires and the air pollution it produces. The Inflation Reduction Act has sped up the transition to Green Energy and the reduction of burning fossil fuels. (Trump has promised to terminate all the climate programs of the Biden administration).

Kamala Harris brings to the presidency the same concern with the existential threat posed climate change as Joe Biden.  She's conversant with details and workings of the Inflation Reduction Act.  As president, I would expect her to focus on the potential conflict caused by water shortages, drought and climate driven migration in the Middle East which will only add to the region's already dangerous level of instability. 

Contra Trump's isolationism, Harris is much more attuned to the intricacies of foreign policy given her experience in a wide variety of high level conferences and meetings with world leaders in all parts of the world. Certainly she understands the need to bring stability to the Middle East. 

Let's not forget that the Syrian Civil War, which is still raging, started with the climate crisis, namely the drought along the Euphrates River in Eastern Syria in the early 2000s which forced large numbers of farmers and their families to leave their villages due to lack of water and proceed westward towards other Syrian cities where they sought government assistance. When that assistance wasn't forthcoming, demonstration broke out and the Bashar al-Asad regime responded with violence against the peaceful demonstrators, leading to armed conflict and a civil war which has displaced half of Syria's population.

Harris is committed to a two state solution to the Israel-Palestine dispute. Once the Gaza War has ended and the Netanyahu government is replaced by a more centrist coalition, there might be an opening for movement towards establishing an independent Palestinian state, especially if the US plays a more active role in supporting security arrangements for both sides once the process is underway.

If Saudi Arabia, which has made progress on establishing ties with Israel contingent on steps towards creating a Palestinian state, then agrees to establish diplomatic relations with Israel, we might see the development of the type of economic cooperation which we saw in embryo in the years after the 1993 Oslo Accords when joint Israeli-Palestinian-Jordanian firms were formed in the communications, real estate and tourism sectors.

Israeli agriculture is well know for its use of drip agriculture and it has made great strides in growing crops in excessive heat. Thus, Israeli technology would be very attractive to its neighbors as the climate crisis in the Middle East intensifies. These ideas may sound like "pie in the sky." However, solving the Palestinian dispute once and for all may turn the Middle East's focus to a greater awareness that the entire region is at a significant risk from the greatest emergency it has faced to date. See my: Beyond Historical Amnesia, Revenge and the Good-Evil Binary: Solving the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute Once and For All 

Solving the Israel-Palestine conflict could facilitate the development of a cooperative approach among the countries of the region to address the climate crisis. Given Kamala Harris' commitment to a robust foreign policy, the United States could play a central role in promoting that approach. Thus, a Harris administration could make a critical contribution to Middle East's development centered around addressing the region's climate crisis.  If that occurred, it would establish an important legacy of Harris' presidency.