ISIS-K's Attack Underscores the Interdependence of Cross-Regional Violence and the Folly of Putin's Rule

Four Alleged Tajik assailants in Russian court, Mar 23, 2024

The March 22nd ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) attack on the Crocus Concert Hall in the Moscow suburb of Krasnogorsk not only indicated that the Islamic State group is alive and dangerous but underscores the increasing interdependence of violence extremism across multiple regions of the world.  At first glance, it  might be asked why the Islamic State attacked an entertainment venue near Moscow.  A deeper look shows that Russia is increasingly in the cross hairs of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State.

Russia's support for Syrian dictator Bashar al-Asad over the past decade has created intense anger among terrorist groups seeking to overthrow his highly repressive Ba'thist regime. Asad has used chemical weapons against his own people and his security services are infamous for the severity of the torture they inflict on real and supposed enemies of the regime. 

The Islamic State groups deeply resent Russia for propping up the Iranian regime which played a central role in destroying the Islamic State so-called Caliphate headquartered in Raqqa, Syria. Russia is supplying Iran with fighter aircraft in exchange for its cheap Shahed drones which enables Putin'a military to attack Ukrainian forces and and infrastructure.  

Deep hostility to Putin's regime extends back to its brutal suppression of an uprising by Chechens seeking greater local autonomy which began after the collapse of the USSR in 1991 but was not completely suppressed until 2017.  In repressing the Chechen insurgency, Russia completely destroyed Grozny, the capital city of the region.  Resentment of Russia can be traced even earlier
to the USSR's almost decade long invasion of Afghanistan during the 1980s. 

Grozny, Chechnya's capital, after Russia's 1999-2000 assault 

Adding the Tehran regime's critical role in propping up the Asad regime, we see why ISIS-K not only attacked Russia but also Iran.  On January 3, 2024, large numbers of Iranians had gathered at the grave of former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, Qasem Solimani, in his hime town of Kerman to commemorate his death by an American drone strike in January 2020. Suicide bombers from ISIS-K detonated two devices during the ceremony killing 94 mourners and wounding 284 others.

ISIS-K became particularly infamous in the West for its attack on the Kabul Airport during the evacuation of Afghans in the summer of 2021. The bombing killed 13 US soldiers and 170 Afghans gathered at the airport, leading the US government to place a $10 million bounty of the terrorist organization's leader, Sanalluh Ghafari.

What is ISIS-K? The Islamic State-Khorasan Province developed in the 2010s. It is largely comprised of members who broke away from radical Islamic groups in Pakistan, such as Tehrik e-Taliban, and the Afghan Taliban. Despite being most active in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the group has shown its far reach as the Moscow attack demonstrates. In 2010, it convinced an American citizen of Pakistani heritage, Faisal Shazad, to attempt to detonate a bomb in New York City's Times Square.

ISIS-K views the ancient region of Khorosan as the site for a new "Caliphate."  This differs, of course, from the region which the Islamic State (originally the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant/Syria or ISIL) declared to be the new Caliphate in large series of Syria and north central Iraq.  Indeed, ISIS-K has benefitted from the destruction of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.  Its claim that Khorosan should be the site of the new Caliphate. 

Clearly, the moniker, "Islamic State," has become a terrorist brand.  A terrorist group can spring up in any part of the world and claim to be an Islamic State affiliate. This is exactly what ISIS-K has done. However, this proliferation of Islamic State groups also contains the seeds of internal conflict. ISIS-K has moved the proposed future Caliphate from Arabic speaking lands to those in "Khorosan" which speak Central Asian languages. Its prominence as the leading Islamic State terrorist organization is bound to create resentment among terrorists in the now defunct Iraq-Syria group and their Arab supporters .

Russia finds itself in a new and difficult position. Having lost a large number of soldiers fighting in Putin's ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine between 290,000 and 460,00 men), originally conceived as a short and easy victory, Russia is facing a man-power shortage.  Even before the war began, migrants from Central Asian republics, such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, have provided menial labor in Russian cities for jobs Russians don't want to do. The Russian Interior Ministry has said that there are 10.5 million workers Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan currently in the country. How Many Russian Soldiers Have Died in Ukraine?

Migrants from Central Asia receive sub-standard wages, are looked down upon, and often treated badly by the police and security forces. That these migrants resent such treatment, and thus would be susceptible to recruitment by terrorist groups such as ISIS-K is understandable. 

Central Asian migrants' ability to travel visa-free and easily acquire work permits in Russia, and the lack of employment opportunities in their home countries, are the main incentives to work in Russia.  However, working conditions are only becoming worse after the Crocus Concert Hall attack.  In the wake of the Crocus Concert Hall attack, conditions have become even more difficult, especially for Tajiks who have been threatened and attacked. 

Putin views himself as a latter day Peter the Great ruling a new EurAsian global order

Putin's grand scheme for a new world order under the doctrine of EurAsianism constitutes pie in the sky. This vision, which situates  Russia as the centerpiece of in a new regional bloc designed to challenge Western global hegemony, seems like pie in the sky. The Russian military assured Putin that the invasion of Ukraine would last a week, that the Zelensky government in Kyiv would easily be toppled and that Ukraine made once again become part of Mother Russia.  Obviously, Putin's general staff grossly underestimated Ukrainian forces and the will of Ukrainians not to allow Russia to force their country to be annexed by a latter day Soviet Union. Putin’s ‘Eurasian’ fixation reveals ambitions beyond Ukraine

If the Russia's military doesn't meet credible standards, the same can be said of its security services led by the FSB.  Not only did it fail to prevent the Crocus Concert Hall massacre, it likewise failed to warn Putin of the June 23 rebellion when units of Yevgeny Prigozhin's private mercenary army, the Wagner Group, marched on Moscow in an attempt to remove the Minister of Defense and the army Chief of Staff for purported incompetence in the Ukraine War.

To be fair, Russia's security services are stretched thin as a result of Putin's paranoia in seeing an enemy behind every tree and his categorization of countless groups as traitors, e.g., independent journalists, members of Russia's LGBTQ+ community and Jehovah's Witnesses, many of whom have been imprisoned.

Where does the Crocus Concert Hall attack leave Putin? Russia's manpower shortage will only grow as the Ukraine War grinds on. The Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Economics found Russia lacking 4.8 million workers in 2023, who are key to the construction, transportation and retail sectors. With a xenophobic anti-immigrant campaign underway after the attack, egged on by Russian neo-Nazis, efforts are being made to boycott Tajik restaurants, taxis and other migrant provided services.

If such hostility spreads, it will cause many Central Asian workers to return home, further undermining the Russian economy.  Such a development would seem to favor the recruitment of more terrorists to ISIS-K whose message that Russia seeks to eradicate the Islamic religion will resonate more strongly.

Authoritarians such as Putin are often shrewd in centralizing political power in the short term. However, their egos, which are nurtured by loyalist supporters, causes them to make decisions which ultimately bring down their regimes. Putin is now facing several crises, not just the war in Ukraine and more terrorist attacks. He must worry that Russians no longer view him as capable of providing iron-clad security, as the Wagner Group and the Crocus Concert Hall attacks indicate. Putin must also worry that those surrounding him may feel that his time as Russia's leader has reached its productive end. Central Asian migrants face xenophobic backlash in Russia after Moscow terror attack 

   

If You Want Peace and Stability in the Middle East, There is only One Choice for POTUS: Joe Biden

The Israel-HAMAS War has created another divisive issue in the 2024 United States presidential elections.  Following the brutal HAMAS attack on Israel on October 7, 2024, Israel immediately began a huge bombing of Gaza which has resulted, at the time of this writing, in deaths of over 30,000 Palestinians and the destruction or significant damage of over 80% of its infrastructure and buildings. The Benjamin Netanyahu's government's response to the HAMAS attack, which resulted in over 1200 Israeli deaths, has infuriated large swaths of the global community, including thousands of Americans.

A key question is how the ongoing Israel-HAMAS War will affect this year's elections.  Ax the recent Michigan Democratic Party primary indicated, many of Joe Bidne's supporters are highly disappointed with his Gaza War policy.  They feel he has been too meek in his criticism of Netanyahu. The Israeli leader seeks to continue the war to prevent elections which he would lose and also possibly face jail time due to his ongoing corruption trial.  Will the Israel-HAMAS War cause Biden to lose the presidential elections?  

The answer to this question depends on whether Biden can reenergize the base which allowed him to win in 2020.  This coalition will need to mobilize young voters in the 18-30 demographic, people of color, union members and, in Michigan, a key battle ground state, Arab-American voters who are several hundred thousand strong.  Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 150,000 votes. If Arab-American defect die to their anger at his Gaza War policy, they could hand the election to Donald Trump.

Arab-American anger, as well as that of African-Americans who identify with the Palestinian cause, young people, including many Jewish youth, and large numbers of Americans more broadly who are revulsed by the daily images of death and destrcution in Gaza, is understandable.  I count myself among those who find Netahyahu's policies in Gaza reprehensible. 

These considerations notwithstanding, let's return to the Trump presidency to see what American policy towards Israel and the Palestinians looked lime then.  First, Trump appointed David M. Friedman ambassador to Israel, a post which won narrow US Senate confirmation. 

A founder of Americans Friends of Beit-El Institutions and a columnist for the settlement news website, Arutz Sheva, Friedman has been a supporter of the Israeli far -right, raising funds for settlements, and actively involved in preventing the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. He had no diplomatic experience prior to being appointed ambassador.

David Friedman with far-right Minister of
Finance, Bezalel Smotrich

Breaking with a tradition of both Republican and Democartic presidents, Trump moved the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.  He did nothing to stop the rapid growth of settlements in the West Bank whose construction on occupied territory is considered illegal under international law. Indeed, the Trump administration gave the Netanyahu government a green light to pursue whatever policies it wanted in the West Bank and Palestinian East Jerusalem.

The Trump administration implemented the Abraham Accords in September 2020 which normalized realtions between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.  In October, Morocco and Sudan, which was removed from a list of states supporting terrorism and received a $1.2 billion loan from the United States, joined the accords. 

While the Abraham Accords constituted a step forward in reducing tensions between the Arab world and Israel, there was a noticeable absence of any reference to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state as stipulated by the United Nations which it approved the partition of Palestine into two states - one Arab and one Jewish - with Resolution 181 of November 1947.  Clearly the accords were an effort to consolidate ties between Israel and the Arab Gulf at the expense of the Palestinians.

Trump's return to office would see an intensification of his support for the Israeli settlement movement, if not the expulsion of Palestinian from the West Bank. It could possibly entail support for Israel 

A Clear and Present Danger: How Benjamin Netanyahu Threatens Peace in the Middle East and Global Stability

Itamar Ben-Giver, Benjamin Netanyahu and Bezalel Smotrich 

Four months after the brutal HAMAS attack on southern Israel, it is clear that Benjamin Netanyahu represents a serious threat to Middle East peace and potentially to global stability as well. The list of Netanyahu's political sins is a long one.  It begins with his lifelong effort to prevent the establishment of an independent Palestinian state living peacefully side-by-side with Israel. What are the implications if the current prime minister remains in office and the Israel-HAMAS war continues?

First, it has become clear that Netanyahu wants the current war to continue. He doesn't care about the over 100 Israeli hostages still held by HAMAS.  All that concerns him, as myriad political analysts have argued, is to keep his hold on power and avoid the playing out to the end of his current trial for political corruption. Netanyahu Puts Political Survival Ahead of Tough Decisions on Gaza

Second, it was Netanyahu who ignored numerous warnings from Mossad, Israel's main intelligence organization, and members of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), that HAMAS was planing an attack on Israel.  It has been noted that he refused to read a report on the terrorists' plan of attack in July 2023 when delivered to him by a high ranking military officer. 

As a result of the massive security failure on October 7th, more than 40 former high ranking army officers and intelligence chiefs signed a petition saying that Netanyahu's rule constitutes a "clear and present danger" to Israel and that he can no longer remain Israel's prime minister.  Although he doesn't have the right to do so, the petition asked Israel's president Isaac Herzog to remove Netanyahu from office. Netanyahu must be removed, top former Israeli national security officials say

To retake the office of prime minister in 2022, Netanyahu's only option in forming a cabinet was to include far right extremists, the most notorious of which are Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Giver, and Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich.  All the far right cabinet ministers seek to expel the Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza. 

Smotrich created a domestic controversy by diverting large amounts of funding to expand illegal West Bank settlements while Ben-Giver has given arms to settlers with the implicit message that using them on Palestinians won't result in repercussions. Because after Netanyahu returned to power in 2022, attacks on Palestinian farmers, especially in remote areas of the West Bank, created a Palestinian backlash, IDF troops were moved to the West Bank leaving the Israel-Gaza border only lightly patrolled.

Third, in another ploy to please his far right cabinet ministers, Netanyahu initiated a plan to strip the Israeli Supreme Court of its powers to overrule laws passed in the Knesset, Israel's parliament. Arguing that the Court was too "liberal," Netanyahu provoked 33 weeks of demonstrations by hundreds of thousands of Israelis demanding that his withdraw his effort to undermine Israel's democracy. 

While the October 7th attack brought national unity against the HAMAS terrorists, Netanyahu's effort to turn Israel into an authoritarian state had many consequences prior to the attack. One was that a 100,000 air force reservists, and those in many other parts of Israel's reserve sector (designed to supplement the small IDF in times of need), refused to report for service. As many analysts have argued, this emboldened Israel's enemies, such as Iran and its proxies, including HAMAS, to increase their military pressure on Israel.

The ill-conceived Israel attack on Gaza began immediately after the HAMAS terrorist attack. Rather than develop a strategic plan, the IDF was sent to bomb the small Gaza strip (about the size of New York City). Using 2000 lb. "bunker busting" bombs and "dumb" (unguided) bombs, Israel has killed over 26,000 Gazans (many buried under building rubble), and wounded more than 62,000.  Many women and children have been killed while amputations and permanent physical and psychological ailments among children provide fertile soil for a new generation of extremists. Palestinian death toll in Gaza surpasses 25,000 while Israel announces the death of another hostage

Netanyahu's refusal to consider a permanent ceasefire in exchange for Israeli hostages held by HAMAS has severely damaged Israel's international standing and largely wiped out the sympathy people throughout the world felt for the victims of HAMAS' brutal October 7th attack.  

Even the United States, Israel's strongest ally, has decried the large number of civilians casualties in Gaza.  The Biden administration has called for establishing a Palestinian state when the war ends - an outcome abhorred by Netanyahu and his far right supporters - and is considering slowing arms deliveries to Israel to pressure Netanyahu to wind down the war. US mulling using arms deliveries to Israel as leverage to pressure Netanyahu: Report 

Netanyahu's failure to delineate when the war will end and detail a post-HAMAS Gaza and who will govern it, together with the large numbers of civilian deaths caused by Israel's bombing and shelling of northern and southern Gaza, has incentivized Iran and its local proxies to enter the fray. This has taken 3 forms: 1) constant shelling of northern Israel by Lebanon's powerful Hizballah militia; 2) attacks by Iranian trained and funded militias in Iraq on US forces stationed there; and 3) attacks by Iranian funded Houthi forces in northern Yemen on ships navigating the Gulf of Aden, the Bab al-Mandab entrance to the Red Sea and the southern Red Sea itself.  

The Hizballah shelling has taken a social psychological and economic toll on the residents of northern Israel and increased the desire of hawkish members of Netanyahu's cabinet to attack the militia and push it back from the Israel-Lebanon border.  However, others Israelis remember the fiasco which resulted from Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon and the human and material losses it suffered until it withdrew its forces in 2000.

Hizballah today is a very formidable military force. Both Iran which funds it, and the militia, seek to avoid an all out war with Israel.  Lebanon suffered greatly during the 2006 Israel-Hizballah war with much of its infrastructure damaged by Israeli air raids. Today, Lebanon is a failed state, with its economy in shambles and 40% of the population living in poverty.  But an Israeli ground attack seeking to push Hizballah forces back into Lebanon would leave the militia no choice but to respond.  

With over 150,000 missiles supplied by Iran, many with precision targeting capabilities, no place in Israel would be safe from Hizballah missiles which could overwhelm Israel's "Iron Dome" anti-missile system.  Under such circumstances, the United States would feel pressured to intervene in the fighting. Such an eventuality could bring Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in neighboring Syria into the conflict leading to a regional war in the Middle East.

Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping is causing serious economic damage to global shipping.  Insurance rates for ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab en route to the Suez Canal have skyrocketed.  Many shipping companies are rerouting their cargo around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Houthi attacks. This decision increases travel time from the Gulf of Aden to Europe and the United States by 40 days, adding millions of dollars to shipping costs, constraining supply chains and raising prices to consumers.

Operation Prosperity Guardian, an international effort organized by the Pentagon to interdict Houthi drones and missies and to destroy their caches of arms, has thus far been unsuccessful. An invasion of Yemeni territory held by Houthi fighters - battle hardened, by years of fighting with Saudi and UAE forces - would embroil the US and Western partners in yet another unending military adventure. 

The continuing attacks by Iranian funded militias in Iraq and Syria on US forces forces stationed in the region finally resulted in the deaths of three service members at Tower 22, a base at the intersection of the Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi borders. The Biden administration has promised a strong military response to these deaths. 

Meanwhile, GOP hawks in the US Senate, including Lindsay Graham (R-SC), John Cornyn (R-TX) and Tom Cotton (R-AK), have called for the United States to strike Iran inside its borders. However, such a strike could lead Iran to close the Straits of Hormuz at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, thereby choking off much of the world's oil supplies.  Such action in response to an American attack on Iran itself could provoke a regional war in the Middle East.

As I argued in an earlier post, all the problems mentioned above, including the HAMAS attack, could have been avoided if Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to establish an independent Palestinian state. There are numerous moderate Palestinian leaders who, since the 1990s, have recognized Israel's right to exist as a sovereign state. Among the most prominent are Mustafa Barghuti, Salam Fayyad (a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at Princeton University's School of Public and International Studies this academic year), and Sari Nusseibeh.  Establishing an independent Palestinian state under the control of secular moderates would have helped marginalize terrorist groups such as HAMAS, which is really more loyal to Iran than it is to the Palestinian people. Beyond Historical Amnesia, Revenge and the Good-Evil Binary: Solving the Israel-Palestinian Conflict Once and for All

The question now becomes: when will rational, solution-oriented leadership on both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute take control of the process to bring this 75 year old conflict to a final, peaceful resolution?