Guest contributor, Dr. Ghaidaa Hetou, is founder of I-Strategic, a political consulting firm that
provides specialized guidance on Middle East and North Africa affairs,
to governments and businesses, in the United States and around the
world.www.i-strategic.com
It is
time for the Syrian opposition and the Syrian government to negotiate a
settlement and unite in their efforts to ease the unimaginable suffering of
millions of Syrian refugees, the sick, and the orphaned. A Syrian coalition government could still save
state institutions and establish a united front to fight ISIS and other al-Qa’ida
linked groups that enjoy safe haven in Syria.
These
groups not only pose an existential threat to Syria but they also threaten to
destabilize Lebanon’s delicate confessional balance as well as overwhelm Jordan that is already
having difficulty coping with the massive numbers of refuges that have poured
across its borders.
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| A UN camp for Syrian refugees in Jordan |
Accepting
facts, in other words facing reality, might not be a priority for those who
seek an “all-or-nothing” outcome. In
the early days of the Syrian uprising, the opposition’s idea of eradicating the
regime and rebuilding political institutions was a dangerous mirage that only
prolonged the suffering. The unrealistic expectation of Bashar al-Asad’s regime
of eradicating dissent and rehabilitating the pre-2011 Syrian polity is another
mirage, that also causes prolonged suffering.
It is
time to bring both utopian discourses to an end, and confront the facts and
realities that behold Middle Eastern states and their societies. Most observers agree by now that the
so-called “Arab Spring” long ago shed the pretense of civility.
The
uprisings, that began in late 2010, did prompt some modest reforms, such as in
Tunisia, for example. Yet the most
notable and disturbing realization is that the mythology of radical Islamists,
such as ISIS, can benefit from political disruptions. It can flourish, take control
of youth aspirations for change, and eventually impose its ideological mission
of domination over the “other,” mostly minorities. This is a far cry from the original promise
of the “Arab Spring.”
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| Devastation in Aleppo |
Not that
change, reform and democratization, historically speaking, would have
necessitated a peaceful path. But the
collapse of authority, in a fragile Middle East state system, where ethnic and
sectarian loyalties trump citizenship, has created a dreaded security vacuum in
a number of states. Libya, Iraq, Yemen,
Syria – even Egypt and Tunisia - are suffering from terrorist operations on
their respective territory, in varying degrees.
My aim is not to discuss the origins of
terrorism and their evolution to a state-like entity (ISIS), that controls
territory and resources in Iraq and Syria. The aim here is to propose
intermediary steps to garner a wider state level, and regional consensus, to
foster manageable reforms and combat terrorism in the Middle East.
Protecting Institutions
This
proposal is symbolized by one of the most meaningful and telling conversations
in recent days. Mohamed Muncif Marzouki,
president of Tunisia, was asked in a Council of Foreign Relations session, why Tunisian security forces have not
been prosecuted for human rights violations committed during the uprising in
2010/2011.
His response set an example of critical application of practical
wisdom in a certain context. He responded by pointing out Tunisia’s need for an
intact military and security apparatus. These two institutions protect and
defend Tunisia from internal as well as external threats. The decision not to prosecute was a political
decision, he explained. (http://www.cfr.org/tunisia/conversation-mohamed-moncef-marzouki/p33493).
Iraq has
yet to recover from the collapse of its army in 2003. Just when Iraq was most
in need of a strong intact military and security apparatus, with a clear
command structure, strategic Iraqi territory, including its second largest
city, Mosul, fell and was occupied by ISIS fighters who attacked on trucks in June, 2014. The same scenario has
been unfolding in Libya since 2011.
There Islamist militias have been gaining ground against a collapsed
Libyan military and security institutions.
Military Component
A
critical component of why a coalition government in Syria is essential at this
time is that the US-lead coalition airstrikes in Syria against al-Qa’ida and the
Nusra Front (Jabhat al-Nusra) require
a “boots-on-the-ground” component. In
this sense, the Syrian army, paramilitary, and future trained counter-terrorism
force would fill the gap in coordination with US and coalition partners’
airpower.
The
political cover for this united military effort would be the coalition
government. Since we are in the habit of mentioning facts, Iran’s influence in
Syria, exercised through Hezbollah,
needs to be part of the negotiation process, whereby Iran’s influence is geared
towards counter-terrorism efforts. Iran
can be a stabilizing factor in the region.
Saudi
Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, once in sync with the ISIS-on-our-doorsteps reality,
can contribute, in addition to their military capabilities, to providing humanitarian
aid and funding rebuilding efforts in Syria. While both Qatar and Saudi Arabia have clearly
made efforts to curb funding for terrorist organizations, it is harder to
control individual funding by no-state
groups and individuals, which is still a problem. Turkey is advocating a
security zone at its borders on the Syrian side, with little success thus far.
No one should
minimize the suffering experienced by millions of Syrians. Chemical attacks, barrel bombs, missile
attacks, beheadings, rape and sectarian revenge massacres have created a humanitarian
crisis that is unprecedented since WWII. Syrians have endured unimaginable hardship. Thousands of children are orphaned and lost
without family, education and permanent shelter.
The
Syrian crisis has witnessed the epitome of human apathy, not just from the
international community, but seen also in a strongly held perception by Syrians
themselves. This sad and destructive
apathy is flourishing among Syrian populace and threatens to leave a negative
legacy for the Middle East for decades to come.
It behooves
both sides, the al-Asad regime and the moderate opposition, to prioritize
easing the suffering of Syrians, support inclusive reforms, join in the
rebuilding of the country, and unite efforts to combat an existential regional
threat.
