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| Ziggurat of Ur |
Iraq is facing a critical juncture. Having decisively defeated the Dacish,
and maintained its territorial integrity, Iraqis – at least its Arab citizens –
face a New Year with great hopes that their country may have finally turned the
corner after all the problems it has faced since 2003. Nevertheless, Iraq faces enormous challenges
in 2018. How can these challenges be
addressed?
Displaced
persons First and
foremost, Iraq needs to find homes and jobs for those Iraqis who were displaced
by the war to rid the country of the Dacish terrorist organization. Schools, hospitals and other municipal
services need to be restored. To date,
progress in solving these problems has been slow. Funds - and not a small amount of politics
and corruption - has impeded progress.
How can Iraq cover the huge costs which are needed to create some semblance of
normality for displaced communities in area formerly controlled by the Dacish,
especially in light of declining oil prices?
One avenue to explore is working with Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Arab Gulf
states to raise the necessary funds.
If the Saudis would provide its own funds and bring
in those from the United Arab Emirates, and perhaps smaller amounts from
Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman, these funds could be used to hire contractors to
speed up the process of rebuilding that is desperately need in al-Anbar, Ninawa
and Salahidin provinces. Over 4.5
million people have been displaced and are not enjoying anything resembling normal
living conditions.
What could Iraq offer the KSA and Gulf states in
return? First, it could open its markets
to larger amounts of investments from the KSA an d the Gulf. Second, it could offer technical help by
offering to provide hundreds of Iraqi engineers, scientists, academics and
school teachers to help the KSA with its new reform program and other Gulf states with projects requiring technical expertise.
The most powerful argument Iraq could make to its
Gulf state partners is that the failure to rebuild the north central region of
Iraq could pave the way for resurgence of the Dacish and other
terrorist organizations. Such resurgence
could inspire youth in the KSA and the Arab Gulf to become attracted to extremism. It also could be argued that the rise of
terrorist groups in north central Iraq would provide the excuse for meddling in
Iraq’s domestic politics by Iran using local militias which it presently funds.
Federalism
In
second order of importance is reconciling the differences between the Federal
Government in Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG). Prime Minister Haydar al-Abadi may be
posturing in public with tough conditions for negotiating with the KRG, but this need not be the negotiating strategy in private meetings with Kurdish leaders..
In private negotiations, al-Abadi and his team
should strive to cut an equitable deal with the KRG. The Iraqi prime minister should offer as gracious a settlement as possible which could then be
implemented in stages after the spring 2018 national elections. In return for the KRG agreeing to remain
within a federated political system, al-Abadi should offer conditions under
which the Kurds could feel more comfortable with local cultural autonomy.
Of course, the most thorny issues remain the distribution of oil revenues and the disputed territories. Here UNAMI, which has already conducted a study of the disputed territories, might be of help as could other impartial international arbiters who could assist the 2 parties in concluding a mutually acceptable national oil law.
Of course, the most thorny issues remain the distribution of oil revenues and the disputed territories. Here UNAMI, which has already conducted a study of the disputed territories, might be of help as could other impartial international arbiters who could assist the 2 parties in concluding a mutually acceptable national oil law.
An especially important negotiating position would be to give the KRG a more central role in Iraq’s national army. If the Kurds could feel that they are true
partners in the Iraqi military, then gradually the Pesh Merga could transition
to a local gendarmerie, on the mode of the Italian carabinieri, which could then play the role of a regional police force
in the KRG.
Creating a joint command of units controlled by a
Kurd and non-Kurdish commander would provide greater interaction between
Kurdish and non-Kurdish troops. This
model already existed in Saddam’s conscript army prior to 1991. In conversations with former Kurdish members of
the conscript army, all officers and conscripts with whom I spoke indicated that cordial relations existed among all sects and ethnicities.
Let’s not forget that, although he often was
sidelined by former PM Nuri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Army’s Commander-in-Chief
between 2004 and 2015 was Babakir Shawkat Zebari, a Kurd. Indeed, Kurdish
officers have always been part of the Iraqi Army. General Bakr Sidqi al-Askari, and a Kurd, led (unfortunately) the first military
coup in the post-WWI Arab world in 1936.
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| Iraqi Commander-in-Chief Babakir Zebari meets Gen Martin Dempsey 2014 |
Minorities
and national reconciliation A key item on Iraq’s
2018 political and social agenda is national reconciliation. Among the most important areas which need to
be addressed are the attempted genocide of a number of Iraq’s minority groups,
especially the Yazidi, Assyrian and Shabak minorities.
Because many members of these minority groups believe
that their Arab neighbors had a role in betraying them to the Dacish, to obtain economic
and political benefits, the process of rebuilding trust among the ethnic mosaic
of north central Iraq will be a long and painful process.
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the Shica
al-marjaciya, Sunni religious clerics and the Shica and
Sunni waqf (religious) endowments should be in the forefront of this process. Respected tribal confederation leaders might also be
asked to contribute to the national reconciliation process, especially in
light of the fact that virtually all Iraqi tribes having Shica and Sunni clans and share many social and cultural characteristics with Kurdish tribes as well.
Excellent assistance could be offered by the UNESCO
Chair for Islamic Inter-Faith Dialogue Studies, co-chaired by Sayyid Jawad
al-Khoei, director of the al-Khoei Institute in al-Najaf, and Dr. Hassan Nadhem,
professor of Islamic History at the University of Kufa, which has worked diligently over
the past several years to promote dialogue, understanding and tolerance among
Iraq’s many religious groups and ethnicities, including Iraqi youth https://new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2017/03/youth-hidden-treasure-of-iraq-and-mena.html
The Iraqi government should devote considerable air
time on national television channels, in social media, and in regional
workshops and conferences to discuss what occurred during the occupation of what was, at
one point, a third of Iraq by the so-called Islamic State. Honest discussions are essential if this
process is to be successful. Most important
is for all groups to be able to deliver their narratives and for other groups
to respect these narratives by listening to them and developing empathy for what they have suffered.
With help from UN agencies and international NGOs specializing
in transitional justice and conflict resolution, using Rwanda, Argentina and
South Africa as case studies, the Iraqi government needs to develop a
comprehensive approach which is sensitive to the raw emotions which still characterize those groups who suffered most under
the Dacish’s oppressive rule.
The
Iraqi military and non-state militias One of the great success of 2017 was the
Iraqi Army’s stellar performance in defeating the Dacish in Mosul and
throughout Iraq , together with the Pesh Merga and the Federal Police. The Iraqi Army benefited greatly from
training by US forces and has emerged as a highly professional force.
Although many excellent officers contributed to the
defeat of the Dacish, Lt. Gen. cAbd al-Wahhab al-Sacdi,
Mosul commander of the elite Golden Brigade – part of Iraq’s Counter Terrorism
Service, also known as the “Golden Division,” has become a national hero. His statement that the CTS has “zero
tolerance” for sectarianism is emblematic of a mindset which is necessary if
Iraq is to continue to defeat extremist forces within its borders.
Now that the Dacish has been soundly defeated,
it is time for the Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) or al-Hashad al-Shacbi to be disbanded. Many PMUs have voluntarily disbanded, but the
3 which are funded by and loyal to Iran – the Badr Organization, the League of
the Righteous People and the Hizballah Brigades – refuse to turn over their
weapons and join the Iraqi Army.
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| Lt. Gen. cAbd al-Wahhab al-Sacdi |
This trifecta of rogue militias represents a danger
to Iraq. First, it is loyal to Iran
first and only secondarily to PM Hayder al-Abadi, the commander-in-chief of
Iraq’s armed forces. Second, Iran has
plans to use the PMUs to fight its battles in Syria to protect Bashar al-Asad's tyrannical regime. Third, the Tehran
regime seeks to create a larger military alliance between the PMUs, Lebanon’s
Hizballah and the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Forces.
According to the fatwa which Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani issued calling upon Iraqis to mobilize to fight the so-called
Islamic State after it seized the city of Mosul in June 2014, this military
effort was only to be temporary. However,
once PMUs were created, providing employment and steady salaries for its young
members, many have now refused to disband.
It would be appropriate if Sayyid al-Sistani issued
a new fatwa requiring militias to either disband or have their members to apply
for positions in the Iraqi Army or national police forces. Disbanding of al-Hashad al-Shacbi would constitute an important step. http://www.niqash.org/en/articles/politics/5791/Will-Senior-Cleric-Disband-The-Militias-Who-Threaten-Iraq%E2%80%99s-Future.htm
Diversification
of the economy Over 50 years have passed since the
steep rise in oil prices between 1972 and 1980 consolidated Iraq’s position as
a “rentier state.” As industrial
production becomes more efficient in the advanced industrialized countries, as
China confronts its environmental crisis by promoting electric automobiles and
solar power, and as Green Energy becomes ever more economically viable, the
demand for carbon based fuels will decline.
It behooves Iraq to vigorously move towards diversifying its economy.
Solar energy represents one area which Iraq has yet
to develop. Using such energy to provide farmers with better access to water
through more efficient pumps would help reduce a stagnant agrarian sector. Solar energy could provide an inexpensive
method to tackle Iraq’s continuing
problem of providing sufficient energy to its citizenry especially in
the port city of Basra and southern Iraq where temperatures are brutal during
the summer months.
The Prime Minister’s Office could create a special
government unit to promote small business in Iraq. This office could work with appropriate
ministries to offer small loans and technical assistance to foster the success
of new enterprises. Iraqi television
could be used to disseminate publicity about contests for new start-ups to foster
economic diversification. Winners of the
contests would see their entrepreneurial spirit rewarded with grants to help
jump-start their new businesses.
Women’s
empowerment Apart from all citizens having equal
rights under the constitution and national laws, there is another compelling
reason why women need to be taken more seriously by the Federal
Government. An estimated 60-65% of the
Iraqi population is comprised of women.
Many did not receive an adequate education during the UN imposed
sanctions regime of the 1990s and after 2003.
The exclusion of women from much of the Iraqi work force
and the lack of opportunities for them to express themselves in entrepreneurial
ventures constitute a huge waste of human resources. The International Labour Office (ILO)
estimated in 2015 that the ratio of male
to female workers in Iraq was 21.65%, far below an optimal situation for the
Iraqi economy.
While Iraqi universities are filled with women
students – in many the majority of
students are female – the higher education of women has not translated into contributing
to the Iraqi economy in the way which it could were the necessary institutional
incentives in place for that to occur. It does not make sense for the state to
educate women who then fail to use the skills which they have because they
spend most of their time in the household.
Once again, women should be offered funds to
establish their own entrepreneurial ventures and NGOs designed to bring more
women into the workforce. This effort
would require more child care facilities which would not only facilitate female
employment but create more jobs.
Youth
As
in much of the MENA region, youth constitute 70% of the population under the
age of 30. As with Iraq’s female population,
youth are likewise a vastly under utilized national resource. At the MA Program in Political Science –
United nations and Global Policy Studies at Rutgers University, we are working
to develop an international project to encourage youth social entrepreneurship
in the MENA and other regions of the non-Western world.
As a country in which national public surveys continually demonstrate a high degree of entrepreneurial consciousness, Iraqis continue a tradition which
began with extensive production and trade of goods in ancient
Mesopotamia. Indeed, one of the reasons
that led ancient Iraq to develop the world’s first language, cuneiform, was
for merchants to be able to keep track of the goods which they had sent to the
far reaches of the Fertile Crescent and what is today Iran.
Tourism
Iraq has huge tourist resources which derive from is ancient civilizations, the
Abbasid Empire, and as the global center of Shiism. The tourist sector provides the opportunity for
Arabs and Kurds to cooperate in bringing tourists to Iraq, thereby further
diversifying the national economy.
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| Baghdad's al-Mutanabbi St., known for its bookshops and coffee houses |
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| The Erbil Citadel |
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| A courtyard in the Erbil Citadel |
The Federal Government could work with the KRG to develop a skiing industry in the beautiful Kurdish mountains (think of Mt. Zozak). Summer youth camps can bring Arab and Kurdish youth to the north for educational, inert-cultural and sports activities.
