Arab-China Summit, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Dec 9, 2022
More than any other region of the world, authoritarian rule is pervasive and institutionalized in the Middle East (MENA). In the one Arab Spring success, Tunisia is now ruled by Ka'is Said, a quasi-dictator who has eviscerated its constitution and created a rubber-stamp parliament. This week the Algerian military shut down Radio M, the last free media outlet in the country.
In Egypt, 'Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi has imprisoned thousands of dissidents for mild criticism of his regime. In the country's notorious prisons, they suffer brutal conditions including torture. In Iran, youth are hung in public for demonstrating against the government (accused of "warring against God") while young women demonstrators are raped in security forces detention facilities.
Saudi dictator Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) represents a new type of autocrat in the mold of Saddam Husayn. Gone is the norm of consultation among Saudi royals with the king acting as primus inter pares. After fleecing all Saudi princes who might be future opponents, MBS has offered the Saudi people "bread and circus," such as Western wrestling matches and rock concerts while simultaneously engaging in massive human rights abuses.
MBS has ordered mass executions of Saudi citizens, most of whom are innocent of any crime, and the jailing of dissidents. The execution of 81 Saudis , 41 of whom were from the Kingdon's Shi'a minority, occurred 3 days before former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's visit in May 2022. During the visit, MBS hypocritically discussed the need for human rights with the British leader. And let's not forget MBS' ordering the murder and dismemberment of the respected Washington Post journalist, Jamal al-Khashoggi, a dual national with US and Saudi citizenship, for which the Saudi dictator has suffered no consequences.
Meanwhile, the few traditional democracies in MENA have collapsed or are in the process of collapsing. Lebanon is a failed state which is under the control of Hizballah, an armed militia supported by Iran. An estimated 80% of the population lives in poverty and Lebanese citizens can't even withdraw funds from their bank accounts. Grain imports are tenuous and serious food insecurity is on the rise throughout the country.
In Turkey, Recip Tayyib Erdogan has transitioned from a mild-mannered Islamist who supported the trappings of democracy to a full-on autocratic. Turkey enjoys the dubious distinction of having the largest per capita imprisonment of journalists of any country in the world. To ensure that he wins this coming year's presidential elections, Erdogan engineered the 2 and a half year imprisonment of his strongest rival, Ekrem Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul.
Israel, long touted as the MENA region's only democracy, is now ruled by a hard right government which seeks to marginalize the judiciary by giving parliament the right to override Supreme Court decisions. Because Israel lacks a formal constitution, the Court has been the main institution in Israel which has protected minority rights and the rule of law.
With the Ministry of Defense and new Ministry of National Security, which controls the police, under ministers who seek to expel Palestinians from the West bank and East Jerusalem and potentially annul the citizenship of Israel's Palestinian Arab citizens if they engage in "anti-national" behavior, Israel is on the road to autocracy. Meanwhile, talk of annexing the West Bank - the Palestine National Authority - grows, as do plans for dramatically expanding illegal settlements on Palestinian land.
If these examples of increased authoritarian rule in the MENA region weren't bad enough, a new development threatens to further strengthen the rule of local autocrats. This threat stems from the increased involvement of Russia and China in MENA region affairs.
Russia has been supporting the scelrotic Syrian regime of Bashar al-Asad, primarily to protect its sole Mediterranean naval base at Tartus and its Khmeimim airfield near Latakia. Russia has sent the Wagner Group, a brutal mercenary organization, to help the al-Asad regime fight radical jihadists in Syria.
However, after Putin's invasion of Ukraine, the degree to which Russia and Saudi Arabia under MBS have formed an alliance in OPEC+. is clear. In a major snub to the United States, one almost unheard of in past Saudi-US relations, MBS refused to increase oil output to dampen rising global energy prices. Instead, the Saudis maintained a small increase in production which helped keep prices high, providing higher revenues for Putin with which to pursue his brutal war in Ukraine.
Facing an unexpected protracted war in Ukraine, Putin recently turned to Iran (and North Korea) to bolster his forces with munitions and arms as Russian supplies have dwindled. The most serious threat to Ukraine has come from Iran which has supplied hundreds of Shahed 129 drones to Russia. These drones have been used to attack Ukraine's electrical, water and other infrastructure to devastating effect.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been training Russian forces how to use the drones in occupied Crimea and there is a proposal to build a factory in Russia to produce the drones. In exchange, Russia has promised the Iranian regime that it will supply it with fighter aircraft, adversely impacting the balance of military power in the Gulf region.
As other NATO members have imposed sanctions on Putin's regime following the invasion of Ukraine, Turkey has drawn closer to the Russian dictator. Russian oil sales to Turkey have dramatically increased, providing Putin with desperately needed revenue to pursue his illegitimate war. Istanbul has become a refuge for Russian oligarchs and their wealth, e,g., their super yachts.
Turkey isn't the only MENA region state to assist Putin in his war making. Neither Saudi Arabia nor the any of the Arab Gulf states have imposed sanctions on Russia. Indeed, Dubai has become a desired destination for Russian oligarchs who need not worry that their assets will be seized while staying there.
A greater threat is the increased presence of China in the MENA region. Xi Jinping's recent visit to Saudi Arabia stood out for the extravagance and pageantry with which the Chinese president and his delegation were received by MBS, compared to the much more muted and low-key reception of President Biden during his state visit to the Kingdom this past July.
This year Saudi Arabia made a $10 billion investment through its oil company, Aramco, to develop a refinery and petrochemical complex in China’s northeast. That Xi's visit led to a joint statement following 3 days of meetings which stressed the future of Saudi-Chinese energy cooperation demonstrates the degree to which the United States has been shoved aside by the kingdom in its traditional role of providing security in exchange for purchasing Saudi oil.
What was left unsaid in the Saudi-Chinese joint statement at the end of Xi's visit was whether China will supply its highly sophisticated surveillance technology to Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf states with which it is cultivating relations. This technology would place a weapon in the hands of MENA region dictators which would greatly enhance their capacity to intensify repression of their respective populations.
It is ironic that, with the United States emphasizing its "shift to the East," namely to confront growing Chinese power in East Asia, China has moved to fill the vacuum in the MENA region caused the downgrading of American policy in the MENA region. Disturbed by what they see as growing threats from Iran's influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and a feeling that the United States can no longer be trusted to protect their security, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors are looking to China for arms sales.
Are there potential problems with MENA region autocrats shifting their policy towards Russia and China? First, how is Putin going to reconcile his closer military ties with Iran and the close relations he wants to maintain with Saudi Arabia in the context of OPEC+? Second, neither Russian weaponry, which has performed terribly in Ukraine, nor untested Chinese weaponry, can serve as a substitute for much higher quality American and Western arms. China likewise will need to find ways to balance its Arab ties with those it maintains with Iran.
Third, will Arabs and Iranians view these new ties favorably? The populations of most MENA region countries are comprised of youth under the age of 30. Will Russian and Chinese culture and the authoritarian policies they embody be attractive to these highly Westernized demographics? Will MENA region youth find the Chinese 9/9/6 model acceptable, namely working 9 am to 9 pm, 6 days a week?
Could expanded ties with Russia and China, potentially leading to even intensified repression, encourage a large "brain drain" from the region? While a growing brain drain might not harm a country like Egypt, the Arab Gulf states suffer from small populations and can ill afford their youth leaving the country for Europe, the United States and other countries where political and cultural freedoms are less restrictive.
What is clear is that the United States does itself no favors but focusing on China and East Asia to the exclusion of the MENA region. Xi promised MBS that China would help the Kingdom develop nuclear energy. Could that assistance lead to a nuclear arms race between the Saudi and Iranian regimes? With the war in Ukraine, global inflation and supply chain problems, and the ongoing Covid pandemic, the Biden administration has a lot on its plate. But its neglecting the MENA region is a policy that is penny-wise and pound foolish.
