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| Joe Biden meet with Xi Jinping, November 2022 |
Much ink has been shed over China's success in reestablishing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Middle East's most antagonistic powers. China's role in MENA region politics hasn't just been limited to bringing two antagonists together to reestablish diplomatic relations. Since 2005, China has invested $273 billion in the region, more than any other country. Do developments in the first 2 decades of the 21st century point to China becoming the main power in the MENA region?
There is little doubt that China represents a major component of the economic fabric of the MENA region. Further it supplies weapons to several countries in the Middle East. In 2017, the People's Liberation Army built its first regional base in Djibouti. In 2013, China launched its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which is designed to provide funds for infrastructural development to the countries of the Global South. BRI is helping Egypt develop a new (highly over budget) capital east of Cairo and it built a metro in Mecca, Saudi Arabia.
Analysts have failed, however, to consider what constraints domestic developments in China itself might place on its desire to play a more central role as a political and economic power broker in the MENA region. I would argue that, under the rule of Xi Jinping, China, is shooting itself in the foot. Xi's policies, together with structural changes over which he and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have little control, suggest that China may very well face a decline in its global power in the decades to come.
Leadership How has China achieved the position of a global superpower today? If Mao deserves credit for seizing control of China from Chang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang, he doesn't receive high marks for developing the Chinese economy after 1949. Mao's disastrous Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution were ideologically driven policies which severely cramped China's economic growth.
It was Deng Xiaoping's decision in 1978 to open the Chinese economy to market forces which led to China's economic miracle reflected in growth rates which reached between 6 and 8% per year. Reacting to Mao's lengthy rule, the CCP adopted a policy of two terms for the Party Secretary. While China remained an authoritarian state, state policies became more pragmatic and less ideological in orientation.
Under current president and party secretary, Xi Jinping, the pendulum haas swing back to a Mao style rule. If Mao had his little Red Book, Xi has his 14 Points which every Chinese citizen must learn by heart. Xi seeks total control over the CCP, the state apparatus and the economy. China Puts Spymaster in Charge of Overseeing Western Businesses
Fearful that the prosperous entrepreneurial class has attained too much power and present a challenge to his rule, Xi has cracked down on private enterprise. The result has been the disappearance of a number of prominent business men, the arrest and trail of others on charges of corruption and tax evasion, and the moving of many businesses out of China to safe havens like Singapore and the United States.
Xi's hostile policies towards private enterprise have slowed and even, in many instances, reversed, foreign investment in China. Xi ignores the fact that it was China's economic growth and large market which attracted foreign capital and catapulted China into its position as a global power. China’s Fading Recovery Reveals Deeper Economic Struggles
Structural change China is experiencing an aging population. Workers are harder to come by and thus wages have been pushed upward. The main incentive for foreign capital to invest in China was not just its large market, but its large workforce and low wages. As wages have risen, many foreign firms were already leaving China and moving to Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia and Malaysia where labor costs are lower. Even before Xi's intervention in the Chinese economy, foreign capital was beginning to turn negative on producing its products in China. China’s Shrinking Population Is Deeper Problem Than Slow Growth for Its Economy
Much of China's rapid economic growth was based upon the expansion of its housing market. However, that market has now been saturated. Many Chinese can't afford the cost of new apartments, leaving large numbers of housing projects sitting empty throughout the country's major cities. That many large cities face thousands of empty apartment buildings indicates the distorted nature of China's economic growth which has been powered by housing and infrastructure.
A critical issue which has not received adequate attention is China's looming water crisis. As a 2022 report from the Lowy Institute noted, approximately half of China's aquifers are too polluted for farming or industrial use. and 80-90% of its groundwater is unfit for drinking. The Himalayan glaciers are rapidly melting. Because waters from the Himalayan mountains feed China's Yangtze River, this development poses a major threat to water security. Water security will require much more focus on domestic rather than foreign affairs by the Xi regime. Water scarcity challenges China’s development model
Chinese youth Xi's authoritarian style extends to youth who have been exhorted to adhere to the "9-9-6" work schedule, i.e., 9 am to 9 pm, 6 days a week. Xi has also stipulated that young Chinese should be limited in the number of hours they spend each day on social media and playing video games.
Given an aging population, educated youth have become an ever more important component of China's workforce. It is clear, however, that Chines youth c=don;t want to become the "economic shock troops" for Xi's ultra-authoritarian order. In fact, large numbers of youth have created an ingenious response to the "9-9-6" protocol. It is, in effect "lying flat," namely prone on a couch or bed for large parts of the day involved in leisure activities like consuming social media or reading.
Given the example of large numbers of Russian youth - the best and the brightest of its rising professional, technocratic and scientific class - who have fled Russia as a result of Putin's invasion and war in Ukraine, Xi's threat to forcibly seize Taiwan is not well received by the next generation. Indeed, one result of Xi's authoritarianism may be to lead young Chinese with needed skills to leave the country and take up residence in the West. China’s Young People Can’t Find Jobs. Xi Jinping Says to ‘Eat Bitterness’
What makes matters worse is the high unemployment rate among Chinese youth. Even students university degrees are having great difficulty finding employment. One problem is that universities have been graduating students with degrees which don't match China's needs. The outcome is a souring on the Chineses economy by its youth 1 in 5 Young Chinese Is Jobless, and Millions More Are About to Graduate
Competition with the West With the United States building an International coalition to deny China access to cutting edge technology in the manufacture of semiconductor chips, China will lag behind the West in developing in producing this critical resource. Xi's efforts to extend China's influence in the South China Sea through building military bases, often on artificially created islands, his bellicose language and posture towards Taiwan, his repression of Hong Kong democracy demonstrators, and his crackdown on private enterprise, including foreign firms, is one reason why the United States has become more concerned with China's foreign policy intentions .
Based on denying China access to the latest chip technology, its weapons systems will be less effective and thus less desirable to countries like Saudi Arabia. We also need remember that Chinese arms have not been used in any large scale conflict since the Korean War. Thus, there is still much doubt about how effective it really is compared to American and European weapons. This consideration means the United States, European (and possibly Israeli) weapons systems will remain the default source of arms for most MENA region states. Investors Have Soured on China’s Stocks, Renewing Fears About Economy
Negotiating the complexities of MENA region rivalries and conflict It is one thing for China to facilitate Saudi Arabia and Iran reestablishing diplomatic relations. It is quite another for it to create a balance in which its is able to maintain close realtions with both countries. Muhammad bin Salman sees close ties with Iran as a means of extricating Saudi Arabic from the disastrous war in Yemen and reducing its dependency on the United States which it views as an unreliable ally.
However, the recent rapprochement between the 2 enemy states should be viewed more as a latter day Molotov-von Ribbentrop Pact, namely a temporary policy of convenience which will not last. It is only a matter of time before renewed tensions emerge putting Iran and Saudi Arabia at loggerheads.
Iran continues to develop weapons grade uranium. It possesses 6 times the amount allowed under the 2016 JCPOA nuclear agreement. Israel has vowed that it will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, especially with Iran having developed ballistic missiles which could carry a nuclear warhead. Iran nuclear: IAEA inspectors find uranium particles enriched to 83.7% Published
What if Israel attacks Iran in a preemptive strike against its nuclear facilities? Would China come to the aid of Iran? Almost certainly, China would condemn the Israeli attack but, I suspect, do little more. Would such lack of support anger the Tehran regime and undermine its relationship with China?
If the Yemen civil war erupts again, and Saudi Arabia is drawn into the conflict leading the pro-Iranian Houthi forces to repeat their shelling of the kingdom, would China intervene to support MBS' regime? Again, little more than verbal support for Saudi Arabia could be expected.
If a renewal of the Yemen war brought Saudi Arabia and Iran to blows, what policy would China follow? While it would probably seek to mediate the conflict, it would find itself immersed in a conflict which is stoked by a larger regional rivalry. Xi's regime would be drawn into a web of conflicting interests with little possibility for reaching any long-term solution.
Finally, what if Saudi Arabia acquires nuclear weapons? In light of China's current assistance to help the kingdom develop what is said to be a peaceful nuclear program, many observers, including the United States, think the program is ultimately aimed at developing nuclear weapons. As an ally of both Iran and Saudi Arabis, how would China preclude what could be a catastrophic war between the two Gulf powers? Inside Saudi Arabia’s Global Push for Nuclear Power
Is the Concept of a Regional Hegemon Outdated? The United States has been criticized, both in the MENA region and elsewhere, for "withdrawing" from the region. Putting aside China entry into the region's politics, can the United States sustain its traditional role as a hegemon given the massive changes affecting the Middle East?
In the Israeli-Palestine dispute, the United States has lost almost all its historic influence in affecting the crisis. In Saudi Arabia, MBS is developing a new type of authoritarian rule which rejects traditional Sa'ud family and tribal rule in favor of a model which characterizes Russia and China. The US still has influence through its arms sales to Saudi Arabia, but much less ability to influence MBS' decision-making and policies.
The United States has been unable to prevent the reversal of democracy in Tunisia, the one success story which emerged from the Arab Spring. In neighboring Libya, civil strife still prevails, despite NATO intervention in 2011 to help overthrow the Qaddafi regime. The Biden administration has had little success in changing 'Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi's intolerance towards dissent as Egypt's prison population continues to grow.
In short, it is no longer possible for one power to play the role of hegemon in the Middle East. The spread of political repression, corruption, civil strife and failed states presents a level of challenges that no one superpower can effectively move the region in ways which accord with its national interests.
In the 2008 presidential election, John McCain proposed the creation of a "League of Democracies." While not my preferred candidate, McCain did have a good idea. The United States, Canada, European democracies and democracies from other parts of the world need to create an organization which can use both the carrot and the stick to promote democracy and civically minded leaders who seek to raise the standard of living of their citizens, not line their own pockets.
While this proposal may seem naive, let's remember that Western support of repressive authoritarian regimes has been an abject failure. Having a League of Democracies promote social democracy which affords citizens a decent standard of living and personal freedoms would give them hope in the future and go a long way towards ending the rising level of conflict that consumes the MENA region.
