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| Russian arms at the Dubai Arms Fair in 2023 |
What impact is the war in Ukraine having on the Middle East? How have key states in the Middle East affected the progress of the war? What do these developments tell us about the future of the MENA region and the role and influence of the United States in it?
One key takeaway from the Ukraine's war and its impact on the Middle East is the lack of any support by the countries of the region for United States policy towards the war. There have been no condemnations of Putin's invasion of a sovereign country and the attempt to overthrow a duly elected government. Indeed, a number of the regions' countries have shown a predisposition towards Russia in the war.
The foreign policy posture by MENA region states underscores their authoritarian nature and natural disposition to support a dictatorial regime rather than a democracy. A defeat for Putin in the war - not an unlikely scenario - might encourage citizens in MENA region countries to act more vigorously to promote democracy. Of course, the threat of democracy is what keeps repressive rulers in the Middle East up at night.
Another takeaway is the declining influence the United States has in the MENA region. Even the United States' closest ally, Israel - who some would argue is a 51st state - has refused to vigorously oppose Putin's brutal invasion or supply Ukraine with meaningful arms, e.g., fighter jets which would allow Ukrainian forces to challenge Russia's dominance of the air.
Other supposed American allies - Turkey, Saudi Arabia the UAE and Egypt - have also been very equivocal in their foreign policy positions towards the war. President Erdogan has benefitted enormously from the war. At the beginning of the conflict, Turkey sold large numbers of Bayrakdar mini drones to Ukraine. These low flying drones were critical in devastating tank columns sent across the Russian-Ukraine border to seize Kyiv.
As is well known, southern Russia and Ukraine serve as the "breadbasket" to the MENA region and much of Africa. Erdogan's role in helping to broker a deal between Putin and Ukraine to allow grain shipments to travel through the Black Sea and then through Turkey's Dardanelles Straits was critical to preventing widespread hunger in countries which regularly import Ukrainian and Russian wheat, fertilizers and other agricultural products.
Turkey has also become a place of (temporary?) exile for many Russian oligarchs. Becase a number of prominent oligarchs have died to Russia under mysterious circumstances, large numbers of oligarchs have travelled outside Russia in an attempt to protect their physical safety and their wealth. Russian yachts dot the Istanbul harbor.
Despite being a member of NATO, Erdogan has yet to directly criticize Putin for his illegitimate and brutal invasion of Ukraine. Instead, Erdogan has in effect declared his "neutrality" and offered his services as a mediator to bring the war. to an end. Of course, Putin hasn;t taken him up on his offer because that would force him to negotiate with Ukraine and derail his effort to place the country's under Russian control.
Another supporter of Putin's war is the United Arab Emirates. On February 23, 2022, A day after the invasion began, the United States and its Western allies asked the United Nations Security Council to demand an immediate withdrawal of Russian troops. Russia vetoed the resolution but the UAE, together with India and China, abstained on the vote
In February, 2023, Russia was welcomed at a UAE arms fair where it was allowed to exhibit a wide variety of military arms and equipment. Eight Russian arms manufacturing firms were exhibiting at the fair, including the Kalashnikov Group and Rosoboronexport. In 2022, trade between the UAE and Russia increased by 68%. Despite claiming to be "neutral," the UAE has decidedly supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The UAE is on team Russia in war against Ukraine
The UAE has benefitted from the Ukraine war in unexpected ways. A flood of Russian oligarchs have made Dubai their new home in the hope of evading Western sanctions on the Putin regime. One Dubai real estate firm saw a 100% increases in property sales during 2022. Real estate merchants have received hundreds of millions of dollars in commissions in selling properties to oligarchs such as Roman Abramovich, former owner of the Chelsea Football club.
That thousands of Ukrainians have been killed as a result of Putin's illegitimate war, often in the most brutal manner, means nothing to those UAE merchants who are profiting from the deaths happening far beyond their shores. Villas by the sea: Rich Russians fleeing sanctions are pumping up Dubai’s property sector
In neighboring Saudi Arabia, realtions with the Putin regime have changed from hostility duo to its support for the Bashar al-Asad's brutal dictatorship which is propped up by the kingdom's enemy Iran to a warm relationship since 2017.
Saudi Arabia, historically a staunch ally of the United States, has recently cooperated with Russia to sustain high oil prices through the so-called OPEC+ agreement between the two states. Together the 2 states are the largest producers of oil in the world. Saudi Arabia, along with other Arab states, such as the UAE, continue to purchase large amounts of refined oil from Russia and often resell it in the international market. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas to Saudi Arabia.
Although Saudi Arabia voted with he majority of countries in the United Nations against Russia's annexation of 4 regions in Ukraine and another resolution calling on Russia to end the war the kingdom has invested millions of dollars in the Russian economy since the war began through its Kingdom Holding Company.
Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman has moved to develop cooperation with Russia on arms purchases. In March 2022, six internationally sanction arms companies were allowed to exhibit weapons systems at World Defense Show in Riyadh. This track record demonstrates considerable Saudi political and economic suport which helps Putin continue to pursue his brutal war in Ukraine.
Finally, there is the important impact of the Ukraine war on Iran. Its hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi, has been unable to improve the country's economy. Growth is stagnant, inflation is increasing and the rial has lost much of its value. One of the key problems is that Iran is suffering from United Nations and Western sanctions and has been cut off from the international banking system and other critical sectors of the global economy.
The war in Ukraine, however, has allowed Iran to find new political support from Russia. In return for delivering its Shahed-136 drones and other UAVs to Russia, Putin has provided Iran with discounted oil supplies and fighter aircraft. The Shahed costs about $20,000 and is used as a "suicide" aircraft designed to destroy civilian infrastructure and housing. While the Ukrainian air defenses have been very successful in shooting down these drones, each effort to bring a drone uses precious anti-aircraft missiles. Thus, waves of Shahed drones have enabled Russia to deplete Ukraine's air defense system.
Although this project began prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is also helping Iran build a nuclear reactor which will facilitate development of its nuclear weapons program. Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapon, especially its parallel development of ballistic missiles able to carry a nuclear warhead, have a high probability of prompting an attack by Israel. That Putin is helping Iran circumvent its international isolation due to its nuclear weapons program and human rights record, constitutes a destabilizing factor in the MENA region.
Egypt represents another untrustworthy US and Western ally in the MENA region. Leaked Pentagon documents indicate that Egypt was planning in 2023 to send 40,000 rockets to Putin as well large amounts of artillery shells to be used by the Russia armed forces in Ukraine. Only when the United States discovered this plan did Egypt abandon these efforts. Perhaps Egypt thought it might receive Russian grain if it assisted Putin, in light of the struggle it's having with acquiring grain to feed its population which has added to the country's high inflation rate.Egypt agreed to supply arms to Ukraine after US talks: Report
That the country which is the second largest recipient of American foreign aid, after Israel, was ready to ignore international sanctions against the Putin regime should lead American leaders to rethink its support of the 'Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi regime. Egypt is a key sources of intelligence in the MENA region. However, if it is to work against the international community in supporting Putin, it should face consequences for such behavior.
The United States and the West should be concerned with developments in the MENA region following Putin's invasion of Ukraine. That the three most powerful countries in the region - Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE - have come to Putin's rescue is disconcerting. Ironically, the US' "turn to the East to confront China - has led to a significant decline in its influence in the Middle East.
Apart from China's doing an end run around the United States (see my May 2023 post: "Will China Become the New Hegemon in the Middle East"), Russia's ties to Iran, Turkey Saudi Arabia and the UAE have not only allowed him to more effectively pursue his invasion of Ukraine but pose serious problems for the MENA region's future relationship to the United States and the West. Will China Become the New Hegemon in the Middle East?
As I argued in my May 2023 post, it is clear that the MENA region will no longer remain a primary sphere of United States influence. New thinking is needed. Resurrecting the idea of a League of Democracy, which John McCain proposed in the 2008 presidential elections, could create an international coalition which could act in tandem to prevent authoritarian regimes like Russia and China from further destabilizing the MENA region.
