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| A section of the Euphrates River |
Extreme heat, torrential rains and droughts which have plagued the world this summer have been conclusively linked to the continued burning of fossil fuels. All the Earth's regions are negatively affected by the intensifying Climate Emergency. But no other region is more susceptible to the impact of climate change than the Middle East. It is experiencing rising global temperatures at rates much higher than other areas of the planet. Iraq's temperature rise, for example, is 4-7 times the rate of other regions.
What is being done to protect the MENA region from the Climate Emergency? The answer is basically nothing. Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states possess extremely large sovereign wealth funds. The largest producers of fossil fuels, especially oil and natural gas, they boast about the progress theyr have amde with their Green Energy initiatives domestically, such as the UAE's carbon neutral city, al-Masdar, and Saudi Arabia's huge solar energy farms.
However, as OPEC members - and in Saudi Arabia's case an OPEC+ partner with Russia - Arab oil-producing states produce the largest percentage of the world's fossil fuels. Despite their promises to transition to Green Energy in the future, by the time they do the damage to the Earth's environment will be irreversible.
Authoritarianism and the Climate Emergency Many studies have analyzed the threats from climate change confronting the Middle East. They also offer many proposals to confront the Climate Emergency. However, almost none focus on the manner in which authoritarian rule continues to prevent any serious efforts to confront global warming (or what UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres now calls "global boiling"). The key point is that all the suggested initiatives in the world can be proposed. If the state refuses to act on them, they remain simply words on paper.
The authoritarian state in the MENA region constitutes a particular variant - what we can call the "kleptocratic state." To paraphrase Sarah Chase, the authoritarian who rule them are the "thieves of state." Authoritarian rulers and the elites who support them lack any legitimizing ideology, civic consciousness, and do little or noting to improve the lives of the populace at large. Indeed, the only element that unites them is their crony corruption and the use of force to repress any dissent directed at their rule. It is no wonder that one of the largest expenditure of the kleptocratic state is on its security services.
The Problem of Water Security Many countries in the Middle East are running out of water. Yemen is the most prominent but Iran and Iraq are also confronting serious water insecurity. Not all of the problems are directly caused by global warming. In Yemen, Qat, a mild addictive plant which many Yemeni men chew, has taken over a third of all agricultural land and consumed large amounts of water.
In Iraq and Iran, the state has failed to develop a national water policy which would include promoting water conservation in the agrarian sector. Indeed farmers still use irrigation methods which dare back to ancient Mesopotamia which waste enormous amounts of water. In neither country has the Ministry of Agriculture developed policies which would conserve water much less sent agronomists to the agrarian sector to help farmers conserve water.
When asked by a New York Times reporter what the Iraqi government was doing to address Iraq's severe wager crisis, the Ministry of Water's director in the city of al-Nasiriya in the south responded by saying Iraq has no money. "Maybe next year," he said. This disingenuous reply belies the fact that Iraq is the fourth largest oil producer in the world . It recently signed a $27 billion contract with France TotalEnergy.
Dies Iraq truly lack funds to confront the Climate Emergency? The long list of foreign oil companies operating in Iraq suggests otherwise: BP, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China National Offshore Oil, China National Petroleum Company (CNPC), Dragon Oil, Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), Eni, ExxonMobil, Gazprom, Inpex, Itochu, Japan Petroleum Exploration Company (Japex), Kogas (Korean Gas Corporation), Lukoil, Pakistan Petroleum Corporation, Pretamina, PetroChina, Petronas, Rosnoft, Sinopec (China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation), Sonogol, TotalEnergy, Turkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortagligi (TPAO), and United Energy Group (UEG).
The problem is that the Federal Government in Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government in Erbil engage in such massive corruption that much of Iraq's education, health, electricity infrastructure and other social services continue to deteriorate. With one of fastest going populations in the MENA region and experiencing some of the most severe consequences of the Climate Emergency, one would think that the state would be actively involved in addressing the challenges facing Iraq.
Thus far, that has not been the case. Much is published in official circles about new oil drilling contracts but almost nothing about Iraq's existential threat from climate change. Lack of water and desertification have led Iraq to lose 40% of its agricultural land, an area about the size of the state of Florida. Dust storms have intensified health problems and disrupted daily life including flights in and out of Iraq.
Iran running out of water as well. Water insecurity will plague KSA and Gulf states by mid-century. Two Iranian provinces will run out of water this coming September displacing 2 million people. Iraq has been experiencing a severe drought since 2007 and suffers from dams in Turkey and Iran which have reduced water in both the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. In Iran, Some Are Chasing the Last Drops of Water
Egypt is highly vulnerable to a number of climate induced threats. These threats include heatwaves, sea level rise, increased salinization of agricultural land near the Mediterranean Sea and desertification. If not confronted, the Climate Emergency will have a devastating impacts on the country's economy, food security as well as people's health and well being. As the Mediterranean's water levels rise, the two branches of the Nile which empty into the sea have become increasing saline, rendering 17% of Egyptian farmland no longer suitable for agriculture.
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| Egypt's new capital east of Cairo |
Despite hosting the United Nations COP27 Summit in Sharm al-Shaykh, there is little evidence that the 'Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi regime has developed any initiatives to combat the Climate Emergency. The Sisi regime claims it lacks funds to confront the Climate Emergency. Nevertheless it is building a lavish and very costly new capital to the east of Cairo which has failed to attract many new inhabitants. Egypt Is Spending Billions on a New Capital That Egyptians May Not Visit
The capital seems to have been developed to attract and benefit the wealthy,. However, few well-t0-do Egyptians purchased the new high end apartments in the would-be capital. The new capital will leave the poor and lower middle classes to struggle with Cairo's traffic congestion, poor municipal services and highly polluted air. Meanwhile, the al-Sisi regime has failed to curtail its exploding population which requires housing that eats into precious agricultural land. How Sisi Ruined Egypt
The proposals for Egypt to confront the Climate Emergency are bizarre. A Brookings Institution report argues that Egypt should increases its natural gas exports to Europe and somehow, through this process, become a key player in the production of Green Hydrogen. The problem with this approach is that it says nothing about what the state should be doing to help its citizens now, not in the future, to stave off the ravages of the Climate Emergency.Action in Egypt—Challenges and Opportunities.
Meanwhile, the Egyptian military skims off huge amounts of revenue as part of its corrupt business practices. It produces consumer goods, food items, collects highway tolls and benefited from unreported fees derived from foreign firms which have invested in Egypt. It is telling that it is illegal to report on or publish the military's annual budget.
While the Brookings Report cited above emphasizes the need of the private sector to play an important role in combatting the Climate Emergency. However, it is difficult for entrepreneurs to develop new ventures if they don't have wasta, namely close ties to the governing elite. This political bias thwarts the efforts of many creative social entrepreneurs from trying to create new firms.
One exception that proves the rule is Sharikat Karam li-l- Ta'qa al-Shamsiya (Karm Solar Power Company). Founded by youth, the firm was denied access to Egypt's electric grid when ot started in 2011. However, Karm Solar;s founders persisted and is now an established energy company in Egypt. It was able to provide many Egyptian farmers with solar panels which has had 2 very positive results. First, farmers now have enhanced pumping capacity to access water deeper in the ground. Second, they no longer need to use polluting diesel fuel which is expensive and often doesn't arrive on schedule. Karm Solar Energy Company
What the Egyptian case points to is the failure of the state throughout the MENA region to mobilize youth to combat the Climate Emergency. In the Youth Social Entrepreneurship and Sustainable Development Program which I have directed, I have met youth social entrepreneurs from Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Pakistan, the UAE, Egypt and a number of other MENA region countries. Many have excellent ideas about fighting the devastating effects of climate change but have been stymied because they receive no support from the state. Youth Building the New Iraq: The 2020 Iraq Public Leadership Program
If we realize that youth constitutes a large demographic in the MENA region, we quickly see a huge human capital resource going to waste. In Iraq, where youth comprise 70% of the population under the age of 30, there are thousands of well-trained engineers and other professionals who all too often are unable to find employment after graduate from university.
Taking jobs in the construction industry or driving taxis after receiving a university degree not only underscores the lack of the state's interest in its youth demographic, but a failure to use youth to address pressing problems like desertification and training farmers how to more efficiently use water for their crops. The Ministry of Agriculture could help ameliorate the irrigation crisis facing farmers by training local youth to help famers in their region.
The Impact of Excessive Heat Excessive heat is already reducing productivity in advanced industrialized states. Farming, construction, delivery services, infrastructure repairs and many other aspects of daily economic life are facing problems as workers are unable to spend time outdoors at certain times of day. This means that agriculture in particular will see a significant drop in output saddling countries of the region with even greater food insecurity.Heat Is Costing the U.S. Economy Billions in Lost Productivity
In Iraq and other MENA region, the pressure of excessive heat on the health care infrastructure has increased dramatically. Cases of heat strokes and, due to dirty polluted water, Typhoid, Hepatitis A and Cholera are on the rise. Ambulances lack the necessary air conditioning when taking patients to emergency rooms. Hospitals won't be able to keep up with the demand for health services
Many MENA region countries are dependent on tourism. Egypt and Tunisia are two of the poorer countries that rely heavily on tourist revenues. Visiting the ancient monuments and tombs of the Pharaohs in Upper Egypt will be much inviting given extreme temperatures.
With global ocean temperatures rising (recently reaching a 100 degrees in the Atlantic Ocean along the Florida coast), swimming in the Mediterranean Sea will not be as attractive as in the past. Turkey and Greece, including the islands of Rhodes and Corfu, will most likely also see fewer tourists given the wildfires which have battered the forests of both countries.
Other states seek to attract tourism as well. Saudi Arabia has invested an enormous amount of funds into developing its tourist sector as apart of Muhammad Bin Salman's Vision 2030. Tourism is a key part of the Crown Price's goal to diversify the economy as make it less dependent on oil. Tourism in the Saudi Arabia primarily targets wealthy tourists by offering luxury hotels and accommodation when they visit the kingdom Saudi Arabia is world’s second fastest growing tourism destination: WTO
However, excessive heat will make it impossible for humans to go outdoors during much of the day. Will Saudi Arabia under these circumstances still attract the large number of tourists required to make this sector profitable and provide the return on investment the Bin Salman regime expects?
Climate refugees As sub-Saharan countries struggle with drought, drought and torrential rains from cyclones and other storms, more and more people will migrate north seeking to enter the European Union. This will only create more problems in countries like Libya and Tunisia which are already increasingly unstable - Libya with its civil war and Tunisia with opposition to the dictatorial rule of President Kais Sa'id.
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| Sub-Saharan migrants expelled from Tunisia |
Recently, Sa'id encouraged Tunisians to attack sub-Saharan migrants, many of whom have lived in Tunisia for years. The president tried to blame Tunisia's increasingly serious economic problems on the migrants which led to many being physically assaulted and forced to leave the country.
While not facing the same levels of political instability as Libya and Tunisia, Morocco has also seen ever larger numbers of migrants entering the country as they try to enter Spain across its northern border. Security forces have responded with violence as Sudanese and other African migrants have tried to enter Spain's north African enclave of Mellila.
Meanwhile there is rising hostility to the over 4 million Syrian refugees in Turkey. The Syrian civil war was one of the first indicators of what the MENA region's future might look like. As the Euphrates River has been drying up in the forst decade of this century, both due to an extended drought extending back to 2007, and Turkey damning the river's waters within its own boundaries, 175 villages had to be evacuated. The flow of displaced persons and their demands for state assistance to help them resettle was one of the key factors that led to the Syrian civil war and Syria's status today as a failed state.
The Political Context The MENA region not only has the dubious honor of being ruled almost exclusively by authoritarian regimes, but regimes which lack any legitimating ideology and are devoid of any civic commitment to the people they rule. One of the key developments which will need to occur soon is that youth - and members of the older generation who support them - must find ways to pressure the state to move beyond corruption and confront the existential crisis facing he countries of the region.
MENA region states have within their power the ability to affect the Climate Emergency in the short term. Following the example of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt during the Great Depression of the 1930s who founded the Civilian Conservation Corps to restock forests with tress and develop local infrastructure, similar youth organizations coud be developed in the MENA region.
Such organizations could plant trees and foliage in urban areas to mitigate the impact of dust storms on the cities' residents. As we know in Cairo and many other MENA region cities, roofs of large buildings are where many people live and frequently use the area to raise chickens and other livestock. Building owners could be paid a stipend if they allow these areas to be populated by bushes and other foliage and have building employees or those living on the roofs attend to them.
Morocco is one of the few MENA region countries which has confronted the Climate Emergency. Because it is poor and lack hydrocarbon resources, it has developed some of the largest solar farms in the region. These solar farms are particularly efficient because the sun is used to heat large tubes containing salt water during the day which allows energy to continue to be produced for 3 hours after the sun sets.
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| Noor Ouarzazate Solar Plant - largest in the world |
While Morocco's efforts in developing Green Energy are commendable, little effort has been made to subsidize placing solar panels on the homes and apartment buildings of residents of the MENA region. Interestingly, solar panels began to be placed on buildings in central Baghdad in the early 1980s but stopped after the Iran-Iraq War intensified later in the decade. The cost of installing solar panels throughout the region would not be prohibitive and could be funded by the World Bank. Wind energy also can thrive in many areas of the MENA region given the windy climate.
Israel is one of the MENA region countries that developed policies to deal with an arid climate decades ago. It os famous for example for saving water through the use of drip agriculture. More recently, it has developed heat resistant grapes for its wine industry and begun to grow crops in shaded areas.
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| Israel uses woven protection covers to shied crops from heat |
Unfortunately, the current far-right and extremist nationalist Netanyahu government seeks to annex the West Bank of the River Jordan to preclude the possibility of an independent Palestinian state ever being developed. Even Arab states who signed the Abraham Accords during the Trump administration have withdrawn from interaction with the Netanyahu regime, as has Saudi Arabia which is considering joining the Accords.
Based on Israel's illegal efforts to seize more Palestinian land and populate the West Bank with Israeli settlements, the possibility of other countries, such as neighboring Jordan which is running out of water, cooperating with Israel to benefit from its climate mitigation strategies has been precluded.
The Role of the International Community The international community must help those with civic consciousness and commitment to be successful in their efforts to develop projects designed to combat climate change. This must involve the carrot and the stick. The World Bank, Western foundations and NGOs should provide youth social entrepreneurs with the funds they need to establish companies like Karm Solar. The United States and European Union should withhold funds from countries like Egypt which engage in massive human rights abuses but still receive large sums of foreign aid. Time is not on the side of the MENA region. Senate Democrats urge Biden to withhold $320 million in military aid to Egypt over Human Rights Abuses
