If Israel, with the assistance of the United States, had created an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank following the 1993 Oslo Accords, there would be no war today between HAMAS and the Israeli army. The wind would have been taken out of the extremists' sails once an independent Palestinian state existed and controlled most of the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
What follows is an analysis of how both Israel and the United States have engaged in self-inflicted harm by not establishing an independent Palestinian state as was agreed upon in principle with the signing of the Oslo Accords by Israeli and Palestinian negotiators in 1993.
Because radical Islamists, whether Palestinian (i.e., HAMAS), or non-Palestinian, reject democracy and the nation-state, they are the enemies of Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and its dominant faction, Fatah. Had the Oslo Accords led to the establishment of a Palestinian state under the aegis of the PLO, Israeli and Palestinian forces could have joined in a common effort to eradicate the rise of radical Islamist extremists, if they did find a foothold among some sectors of Palestinian society.
A far fetched idea? As of today, Palestinian National Authority President Mahmud Abbas (who should more correctly be referred to as the PNA's ruling autocrat) provides policing services to Israeli security forces in the West Bank in return for not being pressured to hold elections and being allowed to engage in large scale corruption. As a result, Abbas is reviled by Palestinians and would be thrown out of office if he did allow the elections which he has prevented from taking place NGO Report Exposes Corruption Within President Abbas’ Inner Circle, Prompting PA Backlash
The threat posed by illegal settlements in the West Bank A second way in which both Israel and the United States are guilty of self-inflicted wounds is to have allowed illegal settlements in the West Bank to proliferate. Since Benjamin Netanyahu and his right wing Likud party took power in the early 2000s, we have seen "creeping annexationism," namely the speeding up of building of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, often on land seized from Palestinians living there. To add insult to injury, most of these settlements have been built with Palestinian labor. The situation of workers of the occupied Arab territories
Netanyahu and Israel's far-right belive that there will be a "tipping point" at which time there will be so many settlements in the West Bank, that it will be impossible to establish an independent Palestinian state. Because of the number of settlements is already so large, and Palestinians must drive hours to complete an automobile journey that normally would take 15-30 minutes. Palestinians must use special roads which circumvent settlements and which now prevent the creation of a state with a contiguous area. Land Grab: Israel's Settlement Policy in the West Bank
As the settlement movement has grown, recently exponentially, the United States has looked the other way. At most, presidents from George W. Bush to Joe Biden have issued only tepid criticism of settlement expansion, which is illegal under international law, or politely asked that it be curtailed. However, no president has enacted any policy to sanction Israel for building these settlements.
Knowing that there are no consequences for building new settlement, Israel 's settlement movement has created a powerful political bloc in Israeli politcis comprised of the 700,000 settlers, who live in the West Bank, often with low interest mortgages and generous government subsidies. Under Belalzel Smotrich, Israel's far-right Finance Minister, huge amounts of funds have been designated for settlement expansion. Israel's finance minister defends settlement funds in budget row
The Israeli economy is under threat Israel's economic growth to slow to 2% in 2023 due to war -finance ministry. Already, Israel's Central Bank and Ministry of Finance project a decline in the GDP for 2024. Despite the large amount of reserves Israel possesses from several years of rapid economic growth, the problem is deeper that just the GDP. Israel has had to move large numbers of citizens from both the northern and southern borders due to Hizballah shelling, on the one hand, and the war with HAMAS, on the other.
Many Israelis who have been moved from the north have indicated that they don't want to return to the area because they fear Hizballah shelling. Not only could this "shrink" the size of Israel as Thomas Friedman argues, but it will come with a negative economic cost. Not only will production in the vacated areas be lost, but Israels moved to other areas will need new housing and upkeep until able to reestablish themselves and their families Understanding the True Nature of the Hamas-Israel War
When HAMAS terrorists attacked the south on October 7th, they massacred 23 Thai and Nepalese farm workers, leading foreign farmworkers to leave Israel. Many former farmworkers have indicated that they don't want to return to Israel. At the moment Israel needs 10,000 farm workers to help harvest crops. While many volunteers have stepped in, this can only be a temporary solution. Israel receives 15% of ots revenues from agricultural production. How the war with HAMAS will affect Israel's agrarian sector in the long term has yet to be seen, especially it it continues for several more months.
Post-war governance in Gaza Who will govern and what nation-states and agencies will rebuild Gaza? These are key questions The Gaza Strip was already poverty stricken before the HAMAS-Israel War. Now most of the population lacks any means to support itself. Two-thirds of Gaza's buildings have been damaged or destroyed and most of the businesses which functioned before October 7th are no longer operational.
How will Palestinians living in Gaza rule themselves? Benjamin Netanyahu wants Israel to maintain an "indefinite presence" in the enclave. The United States and the global community strongly oppose this proposal. Further, who will rebuild Gazan society? With homes, businesses and infrastructure seriously damaged or destroyed, there is no way for Gazan Palestinians to sustain themselves.
If Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states are to contribute funds to rebuild Gaza, there must be some sort of Palestinian state under the auspices of the PNA/PLO. The United States and its Western allies support the idea of revitalizing the PNA (read rid ot of the sclerotic and corrupt leadership of the aged Mahmoud Abbas).
However, an expanded PNA which would control a post-war Gaza is certainly going to be opposed by the far-right members of Netanyahu's current government. That Netanyahu's Likud Party has lost a third of its members and the Prime Minister himself only enjoys ratings of 25% among Israeli voters, suggests that a new government more favorable to the Biden administration's initiative might take office after the war ends and agree to a revitalized and expanded PNA.
In my following post, "The Day After: Israel at a Crossroads after the Gazan War," I will explore the challenges Israel faces when the war with HAMAS ends.
The Biden administration's foreign policy team is already overwhelmed. It is helping Ukraine fight a war against Russia, seeking to assure sanctions imposed on Russia are applied globally, working to keep China from acquiring advanced technology which could put it on a parity militarily with the United States, and struggling to contain a migrant crisis at the southern border caused by authoritarian rule and climate change in Central and South America. Now the Gaza crisis looms large and must be addressed. Will the US' foreign policy and intelligence communities be overwhelmed?
Ever since Bill Clinton tried to translate the 1993 Oslo Accords into an independent Palestinian state which would have solved the Israel-Palestine dispute, subsequent administrations have ignored. Donald Trump poured oil on the fire by not including the dispute in the Abraham Accords and by moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Each administration thought that the dispute could be ignored and would somehow magically disappear.
The Israel-HAMAS War could cost Joe Biden the 2024 presidential election. If Arab-American voters in Michigan fail to vote for Biden and the 18-30 voter demographic-the demographic which put Obama in office in 2008-Biden may lose to the presumptive GOP nominee, Donald Trump. Trump would certainly favor the Israeli far right which would preclude any solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict and harm Israel by encouraging more secular Israelis to leave the country.
Israel Is Silencing Internal Critics
