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| Four Alleged Tajik assailants in Russian court, Mar 23, 2024 |
The March 22nd ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) attack on the Crocus Concert Hall in the Moscow suburb of Krasnogorsk not only indicated that the Islamic State group is alive and dangerous but underscores the increasing interdependence of violence extremism across multiple regions of the world. At first glance, it might be asked why the Islamic State attacked an entertainment venue near Moscow. A deeper look shows that Russia is increasingly in the cross hairs of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State.
Russia's support for Syrian dictator Bashar al-Asad over the past decade has created intense anger among terrorist groups seeking to overthrow his highly repressive Ba'thist regime. Asad has used chemical weapons against his own people and his security services are infamous for the severity of the torture they inflict on real and supposed enemies of the regime.
The Islamic State groups deeply resent Russia for propping up the Iranian regime which played a central role in destroying the Islamic State so-called Caliphate headquartered in Raqqa, Syria. Russia is supplying Iran with fighter aircraft in exchange for its cheap Shahed drones which enables Putin'a military to attack Ukrainian forces and and infrastructure.
Deep hostility to Putin's regime extends back to its brutal suppression of an uprising by Chechens seeking greater local autonomy which began after the collapse of the USSR in 1991 but was not completely suppressed until 2017. In repressing the Chechen insurgency, Russia completely destroyed Grozny, the capital city of the region. Resentment of Russia can be traced even earlier
to the USSR's almost decade long invasion of Afghanistan during the 1980s.
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| Grozny, Chechnya's capital, after Russia's 1999-2000 assault |
Adding the Tehran regime's critical role in propping up the Asad regime, we see why ISIS-K not only attacked Russia but also Iran. On January 3, 2024, large numbers of Iranians had gathered at the grave of former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, Qasem Solimani, in his hime town of Kerman to commemorate his death by an American drone strike in January 2020. Suicide bombers from ISIS-K detonated two devices during the ceremony killing 94 mourners and wounding 284 others.
ISIS-K became particularly infamous in the West for its attack on the Kabul Airport during the evacuation of Afghans in the summer of 2021. The bombing killed 13 US soldiers and 170 Afghans gathered at the airport, leading the US government to place a $10 million bounty of the terrorist organization's leader, Sanalluh Ghafari.
What is ISIS-K? The Islamic State-Khorasan Province developed in the 2010s. It is largely comprised of members who broke away from radical Islamic groups in Pakistan, such as Tehrik e-Taliban, and the Afghan Taliban. Despite being most active in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the group has shown its far reach as the Moscow attack demonstrates. In 2010, it convinced an American citizen of Pakistani heritage, Faisal Shazad, to attempt to detonate a bomb in New York City's Times Square.
ISIS-K views the ancient region of Khorosan as the site for a new "Caliphate." This differs, of course, from the region which the Islamic State (originally the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant/Syria or ISIL) declared to be the new Caliphate in large series of Syria and north central Iraq. Indeed, ISIS-K has benefitted from the destruction of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. Its claim that Khorosan should be the site of the new Caliphate.
Clearly, the moniker, "Islamic State," has become a terrorist brand. A terrorist group can spring up in any part of the world and claim to be an Islamic State affiliate. This is exactly what ISIS-K has done. However, this proliferation of Islamic State groups also contains the seeds of internal conflict. ISIS-K has moved the proposed future Caliphate from Arabic speaking lands to those in "Khorosan" which speak Central Asian languages. Its prominence as the leading Islamic State terrorist organization is bound to create resentment among terrorists in the now defunct Iraq-Syria group and their Arab supporters .
Russia finds itself in a new and difficult position. Having lost a large number of soldiers fighting in Putin's ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine between 290,000 and 460,00 men), originally conceived as a short and easy victory, Russia is facing a man-power shortage. Even before the war began, migrants from Central Asian republics, such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, have provided menial labor in Russian cities for jobs Russians don't want to do. The Russian Interior Ministry has said that there are 10.5 million workers Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan currently in the country. How Many Russian Soldiers Have Died in Ukraine?
Migrants from Central Asia receive sub-standard wages, are looked down upon, and often treated badly by the police and security forces. That these migrants resent such treatment, and thus would be susceptible to recruitment by terrorist groups such as ISIS-K is understandable.
Central Asian migrants' ability to travel visa-free and easily acquire work permits in Russia, and the lack of employment opportunities in their home countries, are the main incentives to work in Russia. However, working conditions are only becoming worse after the Crocus Concert Hall attack. In the wake of the Crocus Concert Hall attack, conditions have become even more difficult, especially for Tajiks who have been threatened and attacked.
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| Putin views himself as a latter day Peter the Great ruling a new EurAsian global order |
Putin's grand scheme for a new world order under the doctrine of EurAsianism constitutes pie in the sky. This vision, which situates Russia as the centerpiece of in a new regional bloc designed to challenge Western global hegemony, seems like pie in the sky. The Russian military assured Putin that the invasion of Ukraine would last a week, that the Zelensky government in Kyiv would easily be toppled and that Ukraine made once again become part of Mother Russia. Obviously, Putin's general staff grossly underestimated Ukrainian forces and the will of Ukrainians not to allow Russia to force their country to be annexed by a latter day Soviet Union. Putin’s ‘Eurasian’ fixation reveals ambitions beyond Ukraine
If the Russia's military doesn't meet credible standards, the same can be said of its security services led by the FSB. Not only did it fail to prevent the Crocus Concert Hall massacre, it likewise failed to warn Putin of the June 23 rebellion when units of Yevgeny Prigozhin's private mercenary army, the Wagner Group, marched on Moscow in an attempt to remove the Minister of Defense and the army Chief of Staff for purported incompetence in the Ukraine War.
To be fair, Russia's security services are stretched thin as a result of Putin's paranoia in seeing an enemy behind every tree and his categorization of countless groups as traitors, e.g., independent journalists, members of Russia's LGBTQ+ community and Jehovah's Witnesses, many of whom have been imprisoned.
Where does the Crocus Concert Hall attack leave Putin? Russia's manpower shortage will only grow as the Ukraine War grinds on. The Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Economics found Russia lacking 4.8 million workers in 2023, who are key to the construction, transportation and retail sectors. With a xenophobic anti-immigrant campaign underway after the attack, egged on by Russian neo-Nazis, efforts are being made to boycott Tajik restaurants, taxis and other migrant provided services.
If such hostility spreads, it will cause many Central Asian workers to return home, further undermining the Russian economy. Such a development would seem to favor the recruitment of more terrorists to ISIS-K whose message that Russia seeks to eradicate the Islamic religion will resonate more strongly.
Authoritarians such as Putin are often shrewd in centralizing political power in the short term. However, their egos, which are nurtured by loyalist supporters, causes them to make decisions which ultimately bring down their regimes. Putin is now facing several crises, not just the war in Ukraine and more terrorist attacks. He must worry that Russians no longer view him as capable of providing iron-clad security, as the Wagner Group and the Crocus Concert Hall attacks indicate. Putin must also worry that those surrounding him may feel that his time as Russia's leader has reached its productive end. Central Asian migrants face xenophobic backlash in Russia after Moscow terror attack
