Donald Trump When answering these questions, we already have Donald Trump's four year track record in Middle East foreign policy. Trump made some decisive decisions. For example, he ordered the US withdrawal in May 2018 from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or "Iran Nuclear Deal," which sought to slow Iran's development of enriched uranium which could be used to manufacture nuclear weapons.
Trump was also known for killing Maj. General Qasem Sulemani, head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which is responsbile for organizing and funding pro-Iranian militias in Lebanon, Iraq, and Gaza and protecting Bashar al-Asad's Syrian regime. Sulemani's assassination by a drone strike at the Baghdad airport in January 3, 2020 dealt a major blow to Iran's military establishment.
The Trump administration was best known for the Abraham Accords. This agreement led the United Arab Emirates, Bahrein, Morocco and the Sudan to recognize Israel (in the case of Sudan, in exchange for considerable amount of US funds and debt relief). The Accords sought to lay the basis for enticing Saudi Arabia to join the accords. The process of establishing Israeli-Saudi diplomatic ties was underway when the brutal HAMAS attack on Israel occurred on October 7, 2023.
Trump moved the United States Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Because Jerusalem remains a contested city, Trump's decision reversed the policy of all prior US presidents since Israel was established in 1948. Trump's decision helped promote the fortunes of Israel's far right, ultranationalist coalition which now rules Israel, albeit with only a few seat margin in Israel's Knesset (parliament).
Israel's far right has been arguing for years that Jerusalem belongs entirely to Israel. Thus, Trump's decision strengthened their political position. Those Palestinians, Israelis and American policy-makers who see a two state solution as the only way to solve the Israel-Palestine dispute were completely marginalized during the Trump administration.
As part of the two state solution, in which Trump showed no interest, Israel and a new Palestinian state would share Jerusalem (West to Israel, East to Palestine) as their mutual capital. However, the Abraham Accords were designed to strengthen Israel's right wing, exclude the Palestine National Authority, and undermine the possibility of an independent Palestinian state.
However, the real driver behind the Trump administration's Abraham Accords was not creating peace between Arabs and Israelis. In developing the Accords, Trump hoped his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, would use the Accords to generate more investment opportunities for their real estate ventures in the United States and Middle East and eventually open a path to Saudi Arabia's huge sovereign wealth fund and burgeoning real estate market.
Under Saudi ruler, Muhammad bin Salman's Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia is attempting to diversity its economy and move away from dependence on oil. One avenue of the plan is developing a large tourist industry. The new tourist sector requires significant investments in infrastructure, e.g., hotels, transportation, restaurants, tourist attractions and domestic and foreign tourist agencies.
That the profit motive was a key factor in the Abraham Accords can be seen by the $200 million the United Arab Emirates invested in Jared Kushner's firm Affinity Partners which was followed by a similar amount by Qatar. Exiting the White House in 2021, Affinity Partners benefited from $2.5 billion in investments by Persian Gulf states.
While such wheeling and dealing with foreign governments has occurred in previous administrations after leaving office, the funds Kushner received far exceed those of the past officials. Former Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, also benefitted financially from ties to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. (So much for "draining the swamp.") Kushner Firm Got Hundreds of Millions From 2 Persian Gulf Nations
While Trump devoted relatively little attention to the Middle East, leaving development of the Abraham Accords to Jared Kushner, he did try and withdraw American forces from Northeast Syria. Despite its small size, roughly 900 troops in all, Trump wanted to save money. Fortunately, he deferred to his generals who argued that US forces in Syria played a critical role in preventing the Islamic State (IS) from reestablishing itself along the Syrian-Iraqi border region.
Having overseen the killing of the IS' "caliph," Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October 2019, Trump and then President Mike Pence declared that the Islamic State had been defeated. Just like President George W. Bush's declaration of the end of the war in Iraq under a large banner on the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln which said "mission accomplished," this statement was premature. Significant numbers of IS attacks continue to this day in eastern Syrian and north western Iraq.
Finally, we should remember that, in January 2017, Trump imposed his infamous "Muslim ban," which prevented Muslims from from Iraq, Syria, Sudan, Somalia and Yemen from entering the United States. While this ban played well with his political base, it left a very sour taste in the minds of many Muslims in the Arab world.
Trump's strong support of Benjamin Netanyahu while president, who has been responsbile for appropriating Palestinian land in the West Bank, and the excessively large numbers of Palestinians killed in the Gaza War (40,000 at this writing), has stirred up significant anger in the Middle East. If Trump is reelected president, many Arab leaders may be reluctant to engage his administration for fear of the negative reaction among their populaces.
In sum, as president, Trump showed little interest in the Middle East or foreign affairs generally. His foreign policy, when it came into play, was largely transactional and short-term in focus. There was no global vision. His isolationism didn't serve the United States well while he was in office and it won't serve the United States well if he's reelected.
Kamala Harris Vice-President Harris benefits from not having the political baggage of Donald Trump's policies in the Middle East. At the same time, she needs to articulate a positive vision of United States policy in the Middle East both to attract voters in November but also, if elected, to establish quickly, a strong rapport with political leaders and the peoples of the region.
Jim Zogby, a highly respected Arab-American commentator, recently spoke with Harris and commented that she shows much more empathy towards the innocent Palestinians who are being killed in the Gaza War than Biden. In fact, there has been reporting that she has been responsible for urging Biden to more forcefully express his concerns for civilian deaths and the suffering millions of Gazans are experiencing from a war none of them started.How to Pick Biden’s Replacement? James Zogby & LaTosha Brown Debate Wisdom of an Open Convention
After meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House following his speech to a Joint Session of Congress on July 24th, Harris told him that she supports Israel but that the way in which it defends itself matters. As Vice-President, Harris would usually be expected to chair the Joint Session. However, she said she had prior appointments which prevented her from doing attending Netanyahu's speech.
Kamala Harris will also strongly support NATO, unlike Trump who has shown little interest in US participation in the alliance. Indeed, Trump might decide to withdraw the US from NATO if reelected. A strong US hand in NATO has implications for the Middle East. With less US involvement, Turkish president Recip Tayyip Erdogan will feel freer to pursue destabilizing policies which contradict US and European Union goals in the region.
Erdogan's attacks on the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), one of the few examples of democratic governance in the Middle East, would only intensify if there is a less cohesive NATO devoid of active US participation. Erdogan sees the AANES's focus on gender equality, ethnic diversity and sustainable development as an enticing model for Turkey's own Kurds who he has marginalized politically and economically. Thus, he seeks to destroy the AANES.
Not only has the Turkish president attacked the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a militarily sophisticated multiethnic force in the AANES, but he has helped the Islamic State in its efforts to reestablish itself in eastern Syria and north central Iraq. If Trump were elected and removed the existing contingent of US forces in eastern Syria, this would encourage Erdogan's to increase his attacks on the AANES still further which would facilitate the return of the IS.
Harris will continue the NATO policy of strongly supporting Ukraine in its struggle against Putin's invasion which has wreaked havoc on the country. Strong support for Ukraine policy has implications for the Middle East, namely Iran's economic stability. If Trump were elected and decided to withhold further military and financial support for Ukraine, thus allowing Putin to annex those parts of Ukraine Russian forces have already seized, then Russia would find funds freed to provide further military support for Iran and its nuclear weapons program.
To date, Putin has benefitted form the purchase of cheap Iranian drones which have strengthened Russian forces on the battlefield. In exchange, Russia has supplied Iran with fighter jets and provided technology for building a nuclear reactor which most analysts believe will be used by Tehran to further its nuclear weapons program. If Iran were strengthened, this could have a "domino effect" as Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf states might then turn to China for weapons, fearing lack of US support for their regimes.
Although it doesn't receive adequate attention, the Middle East is facing the world's worst climate crisis. Speaking with Egyptian and Iraqi friends and colleagues, they indicate that water is on the minds of everyone. Both Egypt and Iraq are completely dependent for their water supply on two main river systems, the Nile in Egypt and the Tigris and Euphrates in Iraq.
Both river systems are experiencing problems. In Egypt, these include saline water entering the Nile from the Mediterranean as seawater rises globally as well as possible constraints on Nile water supplies caused by Ethiopia's new Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
In Iraq, saline water has entered the Shatt al-'Arab (confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates north of Basra) from rising Persian Gulf waters which has destroyed its storied date trees and crop along the riverbanks. Turkey's damming of the Euphrates River has significantly reduced water flow in the river as have dams constructed in Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government and in Iran reduced water flow in the Tigris.
Having passed the most comprehensive climate legislation of any nation in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration has had its eyes focused on confronting the climate emergency caused by drought, excessive heat and weather events, and wildfires and the air pollution it produces. The Inflation Reduction Act has sped up the transition to Green Energy and the reduction of burning fossil fuels. (Trump has promised to terminate all the climate programs of the Biden administration).
Kamala Harris brings to the presidency the same concern with the existential threat posed climate change as Joe Biden. She's conversant with details and workings of the Inflation Reduction Act. As president, I would expect her to focus on the potential conflict caused by water shortages, drought and climate driven migration in the Middle East which will only add to the region's already dangerous level of instability.
Contra Trump's isolationism, Harris is much more attuned to the intricacies of foreign policy given her experience in a wide variety of high level conferences and meetings with world leaders in all parts of the world. Certainly she understands the need to bring stability to the Middle East.
Let's not forget that the Syrian Civil War, which is still raging, started with the climate crisis, namely the drought along the Euphrates River in Eastern Syria in the early 2000s which forced large numbers of farmers and their families to leave their villages due to lack of water and proceed westward towards other Syrian cities where they sought government assistance. When that assistance wasn't forthcoming, demonstration broke out and the Bashar al-Asad regime responded with violence against the peaceful demonstrators, leading to armed conflict and a civil war which has displaced half of Syria's population.
Harris is committed to a two state solution to the Israel-Palestine dispute. Once the Gaza War has ended and the Netanyahu government is replaced by a more centrist coalition, there might be an opening for movement towards establishing an independent Palestinian state, especially if the US plays a more active role in supporting security arrangements for both sides once the process is underway.
If Saudi Arabia, which has made progress on establishing ties with Israel contingent on steps towards creating a Palestinian state, then agrees to establish diplomatic relations with Israel, we might see the development of the type of economic cooperation which we saw in embryo in the years after the 1993 Oslo Accords when joint Israeli-Palestinian-Jordanian firms were formed in the communications, real estate and tourism sectors.
Israeli agriculture is well know for its use of drip agriculture and it has made great strides in growing crops in excessive heat. Thus, Israeli technology would be very attractive to its neighbors as the climate crisis in the Middle East intensifies. These ideas may sound like "pie in the sky." However, solving the Palestinian dispute once and for all may turn the Middle East's focus to a greater awareness that the entire region is at a significant risk from the greatest emergency it has faced to date. See my: Beyond Historical Amnesia, Revenge and the Good-Evil Binary: Solving the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute Once and For All
Solving the Israel-Palestine conflict could facilitate the development of a cooperative approach among the countries of the region to address the climate crisis. Given Kamala Harris' commitment to a robust foreign policy, the United States could play a central role in promoting that approach. Thus, a Harris administration could make a critical contribution to Middle East's development centered around addressing the region's climate crisis. If that occurred, it would establish an important legacy of Harris' presidency.
