What will be the outcome of the current conflict between the United States and Israel and Iran? What are the goals which each side seeks to achieve? Even if the fighting ends, what will be the regional and global ramifications? What lessons should we learn from the prosecution of the current war?
The Iran War has already become one of the defining events of the twenty first century. It has caused a large amount of deaths and destruction in Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf and Israel. It is estimated that the war is costing million per minute. Whatever the correct figure, the expenditures are huge and will have significant effects on the societies of those countries fighting the war The $1.3-Million-a-Minute War
Both the US and Israel began the war seeking regime change in Tehran. However, neither side realized the degree to which the current Tehran regime has embedded itself in Iranian society. One of the most brutal regimes in the world, it tolerates no dissent, and has killed tens of thousands of its citizens since consolidating power after the 1979 Revolution.
The idea that the joint US-Israeli attack would lead to a popular uprising which would overthrow the current regime was always a fantasy. As public opinion polling has shown, Iran experts believe that at least 80% of the population despise the current regime. Of the remaining 20%, only 10% are ideologically motivated while another 10% rely on the regime for their financial well being.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps numbers 150,000 members and its Basij militia, from 400,000 to 600,000 members who are available to be called up when needed. There security forces are structured according to a "Mosaic System," namely a dispersed form of authority. Iran has 31 provinces with each one, in effect, having its own a separately organized army. The command structure at the local level is multi-layered. Thus, if the top leadership is killed, those lower down in the ranks are immediately able to take over and fill their roles.
During demonstrations in 2009 against what was considered a fraudulent presidential election, and in 2022 when a young Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, was arrested and then killed in custody by security forces for improperly wearing her hijab (headdress), and then again this past January after Iran's currency collapsed, hundreds of thousands of protesters were killed. Protestors were shot at point black range by security forces and as many as 30,000 may have been killed. An uprising now by unarmed civilians would only lead to thousands more Iranians dying.
The third goal of the war was to destroy Iran's ballistic missile system. If Iran no longer had ballistic missiles, then it could not threaten Israel and other countries in the eastern Middle East. Much of this missile system has been destroyed by US and Israeli air attacks. However, it is believed that Iran still has ballistic missiles hidden in underground bunkers and is saving them if the regime faces a serious possibility of collapse.
Even though, Iran's daily use of ballistic missiles and its Shahed-136 drone, which have already caused extensive damage in Saudi Arabia the Arab Gulf states and Israel, its attacks have been increasingly effective in damaging or destroying its targets. Many observers believe that. Russia is providing it with targeting intelligence which has enabled Iran to use its missiles and drones to destroy US radar installations in the Persian Gulf to undermine US and Israeli bombing of Iran A Toothless Iran? Missile and Drone Strikes Show It Can Still Inflict Pain
After the 12 day war in June 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran had delivered an "historic victory" that would "stand for generations. However, in the 9 months following the 12 day June war, Iran quickly rebuilt much of its ballistic missile arsenal. It dramatically increased its number of drones which some analysts say still number around 2000.
Once the June War ended, President Trump declared that the US and Israeli bombings had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear industry and its ability to develop a nuclear weapon. Trump's statement highlights the Holy Grail of the current US-Israeli attacks on Iran, namely dismantling Iran's nuclear weapons program once and for all. However, it wasn't "obliterated" last June. Iran still possesses a 1000 lbs. of 60% enriched uranium, most of it in two nuclear facilities.
Most if not all of the enriched uranium is buried in the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center south of the city of Isfahan in central Iran. The uranium is stored in tunnels under a mountain which was bombed heavily in June 2025, together with two other nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz. The enriched uranium could be increased, without too much difficulty, to 90%, at which point it could be used to develop a nuclear weapon. However, first Iran would need to develop the missile technology to arm a missile with a nuclear payload which is technologically challenging Analysis: Iran likely transferred highly enriched uranium to Isfahan before the June strikes
Because Iran still possesses enriched uranium, the US and Israel will not have achieved victory unless they can either force Iran to voluntarily surrender the uranium as a part of a peace agreement, or extract the uranium from Iran using US forces if Iran refuses to give it up Trump May Seize Iran’s Nuclear Stockpile: Why Airstrikes Alone Aren’t Enough
To extract the uranium from the Isfahan facility would be highly complex and dangerous. First, US forces would need to secure the site by establishing a perimeter around it. Second, the US would need to construct an airfield to which it could bring it earth moving equipment to assure US forces could gain access to the underground tunnels where the uranium is stored.
Third, a team of experts would be needed to remove mines and booby traps at the entrance to the facility and in its tunnels. Fourth, the troops who extracted the material would need to be specially trained to handle the uranium which is packed in scuba tank sized canisters. However, if the canisters began to leak, troops could die from the radiation poisoning. An even more dangerous scenario might be setting off a nuclear chain reaction if tanks broke while being moved, resulting in an explosion which killed all those in the tunnels of the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center.
Because both Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have consistently maintained that there will be no "boots on the ground" in Iran, talk of using US forces to extract the uranium contradicts this assertion. Given the American public's strong hostility to the Iran War, the uranium extraction scenario seems even more unlikely. A Pew Research Center poll shows, 61% of Americans oppose the war, while a Times of Israel poll shows that 55% of American Jews oppose it as well Most American Jews disapprove of US military action against Iran, new poll shows
Thus, all indicators underscore that a large number of American troops dying in Iran would add to the already poor election prospects facing the Republican Party in the November 2026 mid-term elections. As it is, natural gas facilities in the Persian Gulf have been severely damaged. After Israel bombed Iran's South Pars gas field, which it shares with Qatar, Iran attacked Qatar's portion. Estimates are that it take 3-5 years to repair the facility.
Because Qatar provides 20% of the world's liquified natural gas and over 80% of the LNG used in Asia, the shortage of gas will raise the price globally, leading to an economic slowdown. While the United States is a net exporter of LNG, the rise in prices will have a negative impact on US exports and International trade generally. The US is already feeling a helium shortage which is a by-product of natural gas production an d a crucial component in manufacturing high-pend semiconductor chips Why helium is essential to the future of semiconductor manufacturing
All experts on Iran, academic and military, knew that a likely outcome of the attack would lead the Tehran regime to close the Straits of Hormuz. Only 200 ft deep and thus only providing a two mile wide channel for large oil tankers and container ships to traverse, it is a strategic chokepoint for a large percentage of the world's oil exported by Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states as well as Qatari and Iranian natural gas This Is What Happens When the Gas Runs Out
Laden with sensor-activated mines on the straits' floor, no ship dares enter the area without assurance from Tehran that it wouldn't be attacked. Deploying US troops along the Iranian coast would be a very dangerous maneuver. The coast is mountainous and filled with coves where IRGC speedboats lurk with rocket propelled grenade launchers ready to attack ships.
Trump's effort to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty that an attack on one member is an attack on all failed. NATO allies have indicated they will not become involved in a war in which they were not consulted and which they thought foolish to start.
Lessons Learned One lesson that needs to be learned from the Iran War is that the United States should always develop coalitions before proceeding with a large-scale military initiative such as the attack on Iran. Basing military decisions on a Secretary of Defense who was a television news commentator who lacking military experience and spends time developing footage of US bombings with video game clips such as "Call of Duty." Presenting war as a video game turns war, as the human tragedy it is, into social media spectacle.
Likewise, it was shortsighted to employ two real estate developers with little to no foreign policy experiences to negotiate with the Iranian regime. The Omani Foreign Minister, who mediated the talks between Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, indicated that they failed to grasp essential facts of Iran's nuclear capacity, confusing a nuclear reactor given to the former Shah of Iran in 1968 for medical purposes with Iran's current efforts to develop a nuclear weapon.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio also serves as National Security Advisor and thus has a huge portfolio. He has been deeply involved in efforts to maintain US control over Venezuela and in efforts to depose the community regime in Cuba. Further, ha has overseen the firing of hundreds of US State Department officers, perceived as disloyal to Trump, which include many experts on Iran and the Middle East. In short, Trump';s team wasn't the best team to help plan a major military operation like the Iran War
Second, countries shouldn't initiate wars with ill-defined aims. Donald Trump was unable to define the goals of the war with any precision when the US and Israeli attacks began. At first, the goal was regime change and depriving Iran of its ability to develop a nuclear weapon (even though Trump told the public that the US and Israel had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear weapons program.
Later the goals became destroying Iran's military and ballistic missiles. Most recently, the goal has been to reopen the Straits of Hormuz to get oil and natural gas flowing through it again. Now it appears that Trump is willing to walk away from the war by declaring that it has accomplished regime change and that other countries, such as those in Europe and Asias which are dependent on Iranian, Saudi and Gulf oil should take responsibility for reopening access though the Straits Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz
Finally, planning a war with the current Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu was likewise a mistake. Netanyahu played on Trump's ego to convince him that a joint attack could topple the regime and give Trump a legacy which presidents from Reagan to Biden have been unable to claim.
Netanyahu has had a lifelong goal, of destroying Iran's nuclear weapons program and deposing the Tehran regime, both important objectives However, he is just as much concerned with forthcoming Israeli elections and holding his far right cabinet together. He also wants to remain prime minister to retain immunity form prosecution for his ongoing corruption trial which could send him to jail. Thus far, his attacks on Iran have not improved his low polling numbers.
Netanyahu's attack on the South Pars natural gas field and refineries in Iran was the beginning of an effort to destroy the Iranian economy. Fortunately Trump immediately stopped these attacks, arguing that a new regime would need Iran's energy infrastructure to run the country should new leadership friendly to the West come to power America and Israel United to Fight Iran. Both Will Pay a Price
Netanyahu has also ordered Israel forces to attack Hizballah in southern Lebanon and the suburbs of Beirut where it has offices and command centers after it fired rockets into northern Israel once the US and Israeli attacks on Iran began. Israeli forces entered Lebanon in 1982 to dislodge Palestine Liberation Organizations (PLO) bases there but continued on tot Beirut.
Lebanon's Shi'a population, the largest ethnic group in Lebanon and concentrated in the south, has been ignored by the central government in Beirut. First a Shi'a organization, Amal,(Hope), arose to protect their interests. It was superseded by the more radical and Iran allied Hizballah (Party of God) movement. After losing many soldiers to attacks by Shi'a militants, the IDF finally withdrew from Lebanon in 2000.
Now the US will find itself caught between two allies, Israel and Lebanon. Because Israeli lacks the numbers of soldiers it needs to both fight in Lebanon and keep the county's economy running, the new war in Lebanon will increase calls for more American funding to support it. When such requests are forthcoming, it will only increase calls in anti-Semitic corners of the GOP and MAGA movement to cut off funding to Israel.
Moving Forward Toppling The Iranian government should not be just an American and Israeli goal but an International one (although it's notable that Trump never mentions North Korea, a more potent military threat with nuclear weapons which can reach the US). The Tehran regime has not only killed hundreds of thousands of its citizens but people throughout the Middle East at the hands of its proxy forces in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
The Trump administration views the world through a transactional lens. Act and be done, rather than long term planning. However, developing meaningful policy in the international arena isn't the equivalent of a real estate transaction or a video game. It requires expertise and hard work in planning successful strategies.
The International community. needs to come together to rid Iran of its brutal. Iran';s economy is already on the ropes. As the result of an extensive drought and state mismanagement of water resources, the country is drying up. Already parts of the country in the southeast are uninhabitable due to lack of water After Ruining a Treasured Water Resource, Iran Is Drying Up
The International community must seize the oil tanker "shadow fleet," several hundred decrepit tankers of secret ownership and dubious national registration which Iran (as Russia) uses to export oil and circumvent US and global sanctions. Iran transfers oil once it leaves the Persian Gulf to such tankers as it ships sanctioned oil to China, India and the countries around the world.
The IRGC is more than a military organization. It controls much of Iran's economy. Its commanders have large amounts funds hidden away in foreign banks, e.g., in Europe. These funds in foreign bank accounts must be frozen. Once the Tehran regime and its enforcers in the IRGC and the Basij militia can no longer pay their agents, then the regime will be in a position to collapse.
Does the US, the EU and their International issues have the patience and fortitude to bring Iran's nightmare under the so-called Islamic Republic to an end? Only time will tell.
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