Combating Terrorism in Cyberspace

Guest Contributor Sahar Akbarzai is a Research Associate of the Global Futures University Consortium – an initiative of the Rutgers University MA Program in Political Science – United Nations and Global Policy Studies.

Why have over 20,000 foreign fighters - 3,400 fighters from Europe and the United States alone - crossed the Turkish border into Iraq and Syria to join the so-called Islamic State? This unprecedented wave of mostly Muslim youth who have been recruited to the so-called Islamic State (Da^csh) speaks to the power of its savvy social media campaign.

 According to a March 2015 Brookings Institution report, Da^csh has 46,000 Twitter accounts.  However, these data only measured English, not Arabic, language accounts.  Its social media followers not only utilize Twitter, but Facebook, Instagram, Youtube and thus have multiple accounts.  Da^csh has an army of online followers and the group has successfully trended twitter hashtags, broadcast well-produced videos, and disseminated its message globally (http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2015/03/isis-twitter-census-berger-morgan/isis_twitter_census_berger_morgan.pdf).
 
Da^csh is said to transmit 90,000 Tweets each day, many of which are computer generated.  It has extremely difficult to shut down these Tweets as they simply reappear under different hashtags. To date, US government and other nations' efforts to combat the terrorist organization's social media campaign have been a dismal failure. 

But the real success of the so-called Islamic State comes from the fact that these extremists know their audience - a socially and politically disenfranchised and ostracized generation of young Muslims, especially in Europe. And they use their sophisticated and global marketing apparatus to prey upon the vulnerabilities of this audience.

The Obama Administration has got it right in understanding that besides a military strategy, the other battleground against Da^csh is through cyberspace. That is why at the “White House Summit on Countering Violent Extremism” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/02/18/fact-sheet-white-house-summit-countering-violent-extremism). 

 

At last February’s summit, President Obama called upon tech companies and the private sector to fight terrorist recruitment. Although companies like Twitter, Facebook, and Google are offering social media training and advise to organizations to counter extremist narratives, the real solutions are come from ordinary but very talented Muslims all across the globe.

In addition to encouraging the investment of Muslim start-ups, small businesses must also join in the movement to counter extremism. The most well-known company is Affinis Lab, an incubator that fosters the talent of Muslim entrepreneurs all over the world to grow their companies and tackle global challenges, such as countering violent extremism (http://www.affinislabs.com).  Affinis Lab founder, Shahed Amanullah, is a Silicon Valley entrepreneur himself and former Senior Advisor of Technology to the Department of State from 2011-2014 (http://www.affinislabs.com/shahed-amanullah.html)

Affinis CEO Shahed Amanullah

Affinis Lab has held “hackathons” all over the world, including the most recent one in Abu Dhabi called the haqqathon (haqq means truth in Arabic). Such events pose problems to participants, such as how to make traditional Islamic scholarship relevant to the millennial generation. Participants then must come up with digital solutions.  The winning solutions are provided mentorship, investment, and even become fully operational as start-ups with the help of Affinis Lab.

Multiple successful social media networks and apps have been produced as a result of these global hackathons. Amanullah has stated, “I want to build a community that has so much going for it a person doesn’t have to leave for some illusory utopia (referring to Da^csh). [We] are speaking to a vacuum that exists in Muslim youth identity. It’s giving them an exciting, empowering path to express their identity.”

A sociopolitical atmosphere exists, especially in Europe and the United States, where Muslim youth are being ostracized and even demonized. These youth face education and employment discrimination as well as discrimination in terms of religious dress, especially for Muslim women. Further, they face the constant Islamophobic rhetoric and negative, if not racist, ads by European political parties like The National Front and, in the United States, by groups like Stop Islamization of America and the Freedom Defense Initiative (http://freedomdefense.typepad.com/)

Thus it is imperative that Muslim youth possess global and local connections through online social media where they can share their stories and find solutions to their problems that counter the solutions and rhetoric of terrorist organizations such as Da^csh.  In this context, apps have become a critical part of the solution to the efforts of terrorist organizations to attract gullible youth.

As Amanullah has noted, “Very simplified, radicalization is the combination of anger and disempowerment. Entrepreneurship is the ultimate narrative of empowerment. Apps empower them, answers their questions, and connects them with a society that has ostracized them.” Apps that include spiritual Islam teaches alienated Muslim youth an empowerment that Islam gives that counters the narrative of ISIS.

The latest app produced by Affinis Lab is QuickFiqh - an app that connects Muslim youth to mainstream Islamic scholars. Teens can ask mainstream scholars their most pressing questions about Islamic theology in a 60 second clip and scholars provide 60 second answers in video formats while emphasizing Islamic themes such as mercy and compassion (http://www.affinislabs.com/incubation.html).

Another app called 52Jumaa was created by tech-savvy Muslim Australian teens Abdire Shire and Ahmed Ali. The app is designed to help Muslim youth who are facing identity crises develop a constructive identity over a period a period of a year, 52 Fridays which translates to 52 Jumaa. By providing these individuals with empowering, Islamic spiritual guidance, teens are helped to feel empowered after their one-year journey and hopefully dissuaded from being attracted by extremist rhetoric (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YF79VoijBXI).

Another app created by a Muslim entrepreneur is Pentor. The app aims to connect and network Muslim youth with positive Muslim role models and even professionals

(https://au.tv.yahoo.com/sunrise/video/watch/28432106/digital-battle-for-hearts-and-minds/#page1).  Pentor uses Tinder-style interface connection based on shared interests and even trains mentors so they can provide safe and responsible online guidance. It was created by Yasmine Abdel-Maguid, a Muslim Australian social advocate and writer who won the hackathon in Sydney.

Pentor aims to connect Muslim teens with Muslim professionals in their region: including doctors, engineers, writers, and other professionals.  It is especially useful as it provides much needed Muslim youth with mentors who can guide them to possible career paths and teaches them how to thrive in the 21^st century as Muslim professionals.  More importantly, professionals show that there is a future for Muslims in their respective countries!

Most of these apps to try to dissuade teens from falling into the trap of being seduced by extremist narratives. But what about the thousands of individuals in Syria, Iraq, and else where who have already made their decisions and left to join Da^csh and other terrorist organizations? Social networking is trying to reach out to them as well.

An app called One 2 One, produced by Affinis lab, helps to identify people who use extremist rhetoric and imagery. By identifying these individuals, Affinis Lab hopes to steer people away from them.  Another tool designed to counter terrorist propaganda is also produced by Affinis Lab - a website called Come Back 2 Us, which reaches out directly to individuals who have joined the so-called “Islamic State.” (http://www.comeback2.us)

This site allows family and friends to reach out to loved ones who have left home by posting pictures and stories in hopes it will trigger an emotional response and persuade them to come back. Even more remarkable, it has created a digital “underground railroad” for people who want to return home. By using an automated panic button on the site, information will be provided to government contacts who can help them track their way home.

Muslim youth need to understand Islam in a way that resonates with the pressing issues of their lives. That’s why Jihad Turk, President of Bayan Claremont Islamic Graduate School in Southern California, has started a YouTube video series featuring prominent imams, titled “Shakes and Shaykhs.” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi3Mn4ZwcQM). But the clerics in these videos aren’t your ordinary imams. Dressed in jeans and casual shirts, the video series takes place in local eateries where people can hang out with imams and discuss issues like countering extremism and even love and marriage!

The cyber battle against Da^csh continues to be extremely challenging. Governments must showcase and support the extraordinary work that Muslim entrepreneurs are doing globally through social media to counter extremism.  By supporting Muslim start-ups, governments are not only standing in solidarity with their Muslim citizenry, they are also sending a message to the so-called Islamic State that they are in culturally, ethnically and religiously unified. 

The Psychology of Electricity Shortages in the context of the Iraqi Character سيكولوجية قطع الكهرباء عن الروح العراقية

Guest contributor, Dr. Faris Kamal Nadhmi, is professor of social psychology at Salahaddin University, Arbil, Kurdish Regional Government, Iraq, and a noted analyst of Iraqi politics and society   

قدّم "لينين" زعيم الثورة الروسية 1917 معادلته الشهيرة التي صارت فيما بعد مثاراً للنقاش والإعجاب حيناً وللتندر السياسي حيناً آخر، إذ قال: ((الشيوعية= سلطة السوفييتات + كهربة البلاد)). وبعيداً عن المناقشة الايديولوجية والاقتصادية لمفهوم الشيوعية، فمن المؤكد أن كهربة روسيا وبقية الجمهوريات السوفياتية آنذاك قد أسهم حقاً في تأسيس تلك الدولة العظمى التي قفزت خلال أربعين عاماً تخللتها حربان مدمرتان: الأهلية والعالمية الثانية، من الاستعانة بالمحراث اليدوي عشية الثورة إلى توظيف أعقد أنواع التكنولوجيا في غزو الفضاء بشرياً على يد "يوري غاغارين" 1961م.

إلا إن العراقيين اليوم لا يراودهم بالتأكيد حلم "لينين" بتطبيق المبدأ الشيوعي الخالد: ((من كلٍ حسب قدرته، ولكلٍ حسب حاجته))، بل أن أقصى ما يتمنونه في أحلام يقظتهم هو تحقيق حد أدنى من الاستقرار السياسي والأمن الاجتماعي، وهذا يتطلب بدوره حداً أدنى من استقرار منظومة الطاقة الكهربائية بوصفها المغذي المادي المباشر لديمومة الحياة البشرية بأبنيتها الفزيولوجية والاجتماعية والثقافية، إذ لا صحة جسمية أو نفسية ولا تعليم ولا راحة بدنية ولا نشاطات اجتماعية أو جمالية أو ذهنية عليا، وبالتالي لا كرامة بشرية، دونما كهرباء تسري في عروق هذه الحضارة كما يسري الدم النقي في شرايين المخ! فماذا تحقق من كهربة العراق؟
 

وصل معدل تجهيز التيار الكهربائي هذا الأسبوع إلى (1-4) ساعات فقط يومياً في بغداد (باستثناء المنطقة الخضراء) ومدن أخرى، في تفاقم تراجيدي لأزمة ما تزال مستمرة بكيفيات ودرجات مختلفة منذ حرب الكويت 1991م، حافرةً أخدوداً عميقاً في الوعي واللاوعي الجمعيينِ لأجيال من العراقيين. وهنا تبرز أمامنا فرضيتان لتفسير الأزمة:
- إما إنها انقطاع "موضوعي" لا مفر منه بسبب الحروب وتقويض البنى التحتية والفساد والفوضى الإدارية وتصدع أجهزة الدولة الخدمية!
- أو إنها قطع متعمد له قصديته المخطط لها لغايات اجتماعية ونفسية معينة!

ولأن الفرضية الأولى باتت بديهيةً يجترها جميع المهتمين بالأزمة من عوام وإعلاميين ومسؤولين في الدولة، فإن تحليلنا الحالي يتجه إلى تسليط الضوء على الفرضية الثانية دون أن ينكر منطقية الفرضية الأولى وتفاعلها الوظيفي مع الفرضية الثانية، مستنداً في ذلك إلى عدد من المعطيات النفسية-الاجتماعية الملموسة الناجمة عن الاستمرار الغرائبي لهذه الأزمة، على الرغم من مليارات الدولارات التي أنفقت لتأهيل المنظومة الكهربائية خلال السنوات السبعة الماضية. كما ينطلق تحليلنا من مسلّمة أن البرامج السياسية للنخب الحاكمة في الشرق الأوسط من حكومات محلية وجيوش احتلال لا يمكن أن تخضع لمبدأ المصادفة العشوائية ولا يمكن عزلها عن نظريات علم النفس ذات الصلة بسيكولوجيا المجتمع.

فما يسمى بجداول القطع "المبرمج" للكهرباء (وهي تسمية "مهذبة" أطلقتها الماكنة الإعلامية للنظام السياسي السابق للإشارة إلى قطع الكهرباء لساعات محددة يومياً على نحو نادراً ما يكون منتظماً وغالباً ما يكون عشوائياً)، هو في جوهره تطبيق "مبتكر" لجداول التعزيز Schedules of Reinforcement التي اكتشفها عالم النفس السلوكي الأمريكي "بورهوس سكنر"B. F. Skinner (1904-1990)م، مستخدماً إياها ببراعة كبيرة في تشكيل سلوك الحيوانات كالفئران والحمام، معمماً هذا التكنيك فيما بعد على السلوك البشري، ضمن ما صار يُعرف بمذهب "الحتمية الاجتماعية"، إذ يقول "سكنر" أن السلوك البشري جبري تحدده الأحداث البيئية، أما حرية الإنسان فمحض وهم. وقد لخص رؤيته هذه في رواية يوتوبية له بعنوان Walden Two 1948م عن مجتمع فاضل جرى بناؤه تجريبياً على أساس جداول التعزيز.
 

يُقصد بجداول التعزيز أن تُقدم مكافأة (تعزيز) للكائن الحي حينما تتبدى منه عفوياً استجابة معينة خلال مدة زمنية ثابتة أو متغيرة، أو بعد أن يكرر تلك الاستجابة لعدد ثابت أو متغير من المرات. وعندها سيتشكل سلوكه تدريجياً وتلقائياً كما تتشكل قطعة النحت بأصابع النحات، عبر مسارات يحددها مهندس السلوك المختص. فنرى مثلاً حصان السيرك يدور حول نفسه لمدة (5) ثوان ثم يحني رأسه لمدة (3) ثوان ثم يرفع قائمتاه لمدة (4) ثوان، لا لإنه يرغب واعياً بإمتاع الجمهور، ولكنه لأنه تعلّم عبر جداول تعزيز سابقة تعرّضَ لها أن حصوله على المكافأة (تفاحة مثلاً) أصبح مرهوناً بانتهائه النمطي من كل تلك الحركات التي قد تكون مرهقةً له لكنها تبدو مدهشة و"ذكية" للمشاهد. أما في المجتمعات البشرية، فإن نجاح عملية الترويض يبقى مرهوناً بالمستوى الثقافي لمواطني تلك المجتمعات، إذ كلما ازداد تفكير الفرد تشعباً وكبرت ذخيرته المعرفية، انخفض احتمال خضوعه للترويض.

وقد جرى فعلاً تشكيل جزء مهم من السلوك الاجتماعي للعراقيين ضمن جداول ترويضية غير ثابتة زمنياً، مماثلة لجداول "سكنر"، بوشر بها منذ عقدين من الزمن، إذ فقدوا مرونة الكينونة الحياتية التلقائية المسترخية التي تتيحها الكهرباء الدائمية التدفق، وأمسوا يقننون مواقيت كل نشاطاتهم اليومية (العمل/ النوم/ تناول الطعام/ الدراسة/ الزيارات الاجتماعية/ مشاهدة التلفاز/ النشاطات الثقافية/ العلاقات العاطفية/ مراجعة الطبيب/ الأعمال المنزلية...) على نحو وسواسي-قهري رتيب، بانتظار مجيء الكهرباء (التي مصدرها الدولة أو المولدات الأهلية على حد سواء) بوصفها "الجائزة" التي تهون من أجلها كل أنواع المعاناة التي تسبقها. فأصبح الصبر والتقنين والحذف والتأجيل والإلغاء والإنكار والتخلي هي "القاعدة" المتاحة للعيش، فيما باتت التلقائية والمبادرة والإشباع والإبداع والثقة بالحياة هي الاستثناءات شبه الغائبة!
 

وبمعنى أكثر تحديداً، جرت محاولة "تدجين" العراقيين على قبول أدنى الحقوق البديهية (كمجيء الكهرباء) كما لو إنها "جوائز" كبرى لا يمكن نيلها إلا بعد مرورهم الميكانيكي الحتمي بجداول التخلي عن نيل الحقوق.

يقول مبرمج السلوك الذي يشرف على هذه الجداول: ((الكهرباء هي المكافأة العرضية الوقتية لمعاناتكم الضرورية الدائمية يا عراقيين، ولا مجال للتفكير بحياة متدفقة ليس فيها انقطاع للكهرباء. عليكم أن تنشغلوا بمسألة متى وكيف سيتم الحصول على هذه "المكافأة" التي تتحكم بها قوى غامضة غير مشخصنة، وليس لكم أن تتفكروا بأسباب غيابها معظم الوقت! عليكم أن تفقدوا كبريائكم الآدمي، وأن تفقدوا الرغبة بالاعتراض، وأن يصبح هذان الفقدانان أمرين "مألوفين" ما دام قد جرى تخليقهما تدريجياً عبر تكنيك تحويل الكهرباء -أي الحياة نفسها- إلى "رشوة" أو "مكرمة"، تُعطى أو تحجب حسب جداول زمنية متغيرة يحركها منطق العشوائية القصدية)).
 

إنها محاولة لمكننة السلوك البشري، وإفراغه من مضمونه الإنساني الكامن، واستلابه بيولوجياً ونفسياً عبر تقنية تقطير الحياة في فم الإنسان، وصولاً به إلى فقدان الأمل والعجز المتعلم والاكتئاب الجمعي والخواء الوجودي المر، أي تعطيل المشروع الحضاري والجمالي للجماعة العراقية، وإحالته إلى محض جدول انتظارات خائبة لساعات القطع "المبرمج". فلكي تحصل أيها العراقي على الكهرباء، عليك أن تعاني وتُهان وتتحنط ويُنكل بكرامتك وتموت روحياً. فالألم الثابت والقهر المستمر هما طريقك الوحيد لقطاف راحة ما مؤقتة. فأي فلسفة عبثية لمعنى الحياة، جرت محاولة فرضها على هذا المجتمع؟ّ
 

إن الفئران التي طبّق عليها "سكنر" تجاربه وجداوله قدمت أنساقاً من قوانين سلوكية محايدة يمكن توظيفها لتحرير الجوهر الإنساني أو تشويهه تبعاً للمنظور الغرضي للمؤسسة. فجرى استثمارها من المؤسسة الرأسمالية الأمريكية لإدامة مشاريعها الكولونيالية الساعية لتسليع الإنسان وتعليبه وحتى "تحوينه" في كل البلدان التي وطأتها جزمتهم السادية على نحو مباشر أو غير مباشر، ومنها العراق.

لكن العراقيين لم يعشقوا آلامهم كما خُطط لهم، ولم يفتتنوا بها، بل ظلوا (بحكم التراكم الحضاري في الشخصية العراقية) مشاكسين لقسوة تلك الجداول المكتوبة بحبر المخططين لحشرهم في اسطبل القطيع. فاستمر أطفال مدرسة الموسيقى والباليه ببغداد يتدربون على مقطوعات "باخ" حتى في العتمة والأجواء الخانقة، وواصل تلاميذ المدارس وطلبة الجامعات دراستهم على ضوء الفوانيس النفطية وتحت درجات حرارة تفوق قدرة التحمل البشري حراً وبرداً، وثابر الأدباء والفنانون والباحثون والمفكرون والإعلاميون على اقتناص الرؤى العقلية العليا رغم التسمم الحياتي الشامل الذي أشاعه قطع الكهرباء عن الجسد العراقي. وأخيراً، انطلقت الأسبوع الحالي تظاهراتُ احتجاج غير مسبوقة على "قتل" الكهرباء في بغداد والبصرة والناصرية، سواء بصيغة أعمال شغب منفلتة أو بصيغ سلمية رمزية ممسرحة بالغة الدلالة والجمال.

إن البنية المعتقدية للفكر الرأسمالي لا تستطيع أن تتعامل مع "المنطق الجدلي" ولا أن تنفتح عليه. ولذلك فهي لا تستطيع أن تفهم كيف يخرج التقدم من التخلف، والأمل من اليأس، والتحرر من الاستعباد. وكلها معطيات باتت تؤرشف يومياً جدليةَ الحياة العراقية.

This article was originally published in the electronic journal, al-Ahwar al-Mutamaddun

Israeli Foreign Policy following the P5+1-Iran Agreement on Nuclear Weapons

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei

How should Israel react to the P5+1-Iran agreement to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons?  There are two approaches to this question.  First, there is what we may call the “rational response.”  What should Israel do to minimize its national security risks in light of the agreement?  Second, there is the political response.  Here we refer to how Israel responds to the agreement in terms of domestic political considerations.

The response thus far by the Israeli government suggests that politics – not improving domestic security – is the main driver, if the words and deeds of the current Likud government are any indication.  The agreement is posed as representing an existential threat to the existence of Israel.  Prime Minister Netanyahu’s blustering tone is meant for American audiences, particularly members of the US Congress.

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Governing with a razor thin margin in the Israeli parliament (Knesset), Netanyahu knows that any perceived flexibility on the Iran agreement could be interpreted as an opening for political forces to his right to mount an attack on his policies and even cause his government to collapse.  Thus domestic politics and a commitment to a regional foreign policy that continues to isolate Israel from the larger Middle East suggests that Israel is pursuing a self-defeating policy towards the Iran agreement.

The Netanyahu government and all Israeli political forces view ties to the United States as the central component of its foreign and security policy.  Unfortunately, the current Likud government views this relationship in static and historically outdated terms.  To assume that Israel can depend on the relationship that it established with the United States after its founding in 1948, and especially after it traded military ties to France for those with the US in the mid-1950s, is naïve and dangerous.

First, Israel is no longer viewed in most of the world as a small threatened outpost in a hostile Middle East ready to attack and destroy it.  For many states, including those in the European Union, Israel is increasingly viewed as a regional superpower which treats the Palestinian population in the West Bank, and its domestic Israeli Palestinian population, in a discriminatory, if not repressive manner. 

Second, many young Americans, including many Jewish-Americans, have moved from what once was a completely uncritical view of Israel to one that has joined the world-wide critique of its policies towards the Occupied Territories. The organization, J Street, is a good example of this new perspective among young Jewish-Americans (and many older ones as well). Israeli speakers on US college campuses have become accustomed to demonstrations against Israel’s policies towards the Palestinians that include large numbers of Jewish Americans students who are pro-Israel but against Likud government policies.

Third, the efforts of the US to end the nuclear arms race in the Middle East means that it is only a matter of time before the military relationship between the US and Israel will no longer continue to Israel’s advantage.  Indeed, if the nuclear agreement with Iran leads to a lessening of radicalism in its foreign policy, one could envision a change in the region such as happened following the visit of President Richard Nixon to China in 1973 which led to a significant decline in the importance of Taiwan to American foreign policy (although ultimately leading a significant growth in Taiwan's economic ties to mainland China and its status as one of the "Asian Tigers").

Fourth, with pressing domestic problems, a decline in the US defense budget and the concomitant rise in the cost of entitlement spending, as well as needed infrastructure investment, future Congresses cannot be counted on to provide carte blanche foreign aid to Israel at the levels that we have seen in the past.

Finally, Israel is suffering from many of the problem facing the political economies of advanced industrialized societies.  It has its own “99 vs 1%” political-economic cleavage as wages for much of the middle and lower classes stagnate, urban rents increase and home ownership becomes more difficult to realize.  The increasing gap between the well-to-do and the middle and lower classes means that a large segment of the Israeli population is more concerned with employment, housing, education and making ends meet than with the ideology of the ultra-nationalist Israeli right, especially the settler movement in the Occupied Territories on the West Bank.

What then would be a “rational” as opposed to a political response to the P5+1-Iran Agreement on nuclear weapons?  Despite the threat of Hamas rocket attacks (which Israel’s Golden Dome missile defense system has largely rendered ineffective) and possible rocket attacks by Hizballah to the north (highly unlikely with the huge threat that the organization faces from Jabhat al-Nusra, the Islamic State and other Sunni extremist groups to the East), the possibility of Israel entering a conventional war with its immediate neighbors – Egypt, Syria and Jordan - is now a distant memory.

The old Hebrew slogan – ain breira (there is no choice) – meaning that the only way for Israel to confront its Arab neighbors is through force, a concept so eloquently critiqued in the Israeli director Ilan Ziv’s film Abraham and Isaac, no longer resonates with most of the Israeli populace.  To be sure, security, especially in relationship to Iran and terrorist attacks within Israel, remains a major concern for Israelis.  However, the old Labor Party–Histadrut quasi-socialist society that ruled from 1948 until 1977 is long gone and Israeli concerns are currently focused as much, if not more so, on domestic rather than foreign problems.

An effective strategy that has long-term implications would entail Israel developing a coalition with Palestinians in the Palestine National Authority on the West Bank and with the Hashimite Kingdom of Jordan.  This collaboration already has a precedent.  During the period following the Oslo Accords of 1993 and up until the second Intifada of 2000, there were tentative efforts to develop joint Israeli-Palestinian-Jordanian companies, e.g., the Salam-Shalom real estate and tourism venture.  Even today, there are many Israeli companies operating in Jordan, e.g., in factories along the Amman-International Airport Road, run by Israelis and making products marked “made in Israel.”

A tripartite coalition linking Israel, the PNA and Jordan could isolate Hamas, which has only brought misery to the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip.  This outcome would result both due to political stability, and through the economic prosperity that would result from a true economic integration of the three economics –which largely exists in any event today, but largely to the Palestinians’ detriment.  If Palestinians in the PNA could become true and equal partners with Israel and Jordanian firms, a mini-common market could be developed to the benefit of all three nation-states.

Of course, these developments would neccessitate a major realignment of Israeli politics.  But Benjamin Netanyahu has always been more concerned with his personal political power than with ideology.  If he could shed the small ultra-nationalist parties upon which he currently depends, and form a more centrist coalition, aligning with political parties which are amenable to new foreign policy initiatives, this would allow the Israeli government to halt construction of settlements on the West Bank and in East Jerusalem – the first step towards rapprochement with the PNA and building trust and hence a stronger alliance with Jordan.

The Israeli government could begin by not only ending new housing construction on the West Bank but ending government subsidies for the settlements.  Many in the West are unaware that a large number of Israelis on the West Bank live there to benefit from cheap mortgages, and housing, electricity and other subsidies, rather than for ideological reasons.
 

Second, the Israeli government could develop a “buy back” plan whereby the government would purchase houses on the West Bank at market value and turn them over to the PNA in return for financial compensation from the US, EU and other international financial agencies.  (There is at least one private Israeli organization, made up of ex-settlers, that is already engaged in such activity).

Without a doubt, the problem of Jerusalem would be the most difficult to solve.  However, many Palestinians are willing to allow the Gush Etzion settlements on the outskirts of Jerusalem to remain in return for Israel ceding territory elsewhere to a full-blown independent Palestinian state, e.g., in the Negev.  As far as Jerusalem is concerned, Israeli polls have shown that few Israelis (apart from the small ultra-nationalist community) want to live in Arab East Jerusalem and Palestinians have no desire to live in Jewish West Jerusalem.

The Old City of Jerusalem could become an interim “international city,” with the US as guarantor of its status, which could be renegotiated according to 5 year intervals.  In other words, every 5 years Israel and the new Palestinian state would sit down and see if they could negotiate a final status agreement for this critical but very small area (2%) that comprises the Old City of Jerusalem.  If they were unable to reach an agreement, the Old City of Jerusalem would continue as an “international city” for an additional 5 years.

Such a realignment of Israeli politics would draw immediate accolades from the European Union, elicit strong support from the Obama (or Clinton or even Jeb Bush administrations) because it would involve a major step forward in solving the Israeli-Palestinian dispute.  Further, it would open the door to Israel to develop stronger economic ties with other Middle Eastern states, including the Arab Gulf states and Saudi Arabia.  It would no doubt improve Israeli-Turkish relations as well, relations that Israel sees as critical to its regional security and economic interests.

Can’t happen, you say?  Who would have predicted the Egypt-Israeli Camp David peace Accords 12 years after the devastating June 1967 Arab-Israeli War.  Who would have predicted Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat shaking hands on the White House lawn on September 11, 1993 when signing the Israel-PLO Peace Accord?  Who would have predicted the extensive talks in 2000 between Ehud Barak and Yasser Arafat that almost concluded a comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement? And who, two years ago, would have predicted the historic P5+1-Iran Agreement that was signed this week in Vienna.

For all their failings – and there were many, Anwar al-Sadat and Menachem Begin, with the brilliant diplomacy of President Jimmy Carter, thought in terms of big ideas (even if their ideas excluded the Palestinians).  If Israel is to find its place in what may become in the next decade a post-nuclear Middle East, it must change its foreign policy.  It is time for all parties in the region breaking with the destructive policies of the past.  The peoples of the region deserve no less.