Democracy, Terrorism and the Climate Emergency in the Middle East

Iraqi farmers survey their parched land

Most analysis of the contemporary Middle East has focused on the instability in the region.  Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons, the civil war in Yemen, the resurgence of the Islamic State in northeastern Syria and Iraq, and the persistent authoritarianism and corruption which characterized most MENA region regimes has dominated attention.  However, why is there no discussion of the climate crisis facing the region – the proverbial “gorilla in the room”? 

What are the consequences of climate change which have already impacted the MENA region? How will the region be affected by the persistence of corrupt and authoritarian rule? How will the climate emergency affect the ability of terrorist groups like the Da'ish to expand their power and influence in the MENA region?

Rising temperatures 

Some of the most dramatic developments will be the inability of the peoples of the Middle East to inhabit or travel in certain areas of the region. Mecca is a case in point.  By the end of the century, temperatures will be so high that the hajj will no longer be possible.  In the Gulf region, temperatures will exceed 60 degrees Celsius by mid-century preventing residents from going outdoors during the afternoon given lethal heat 

 

Droughts and water shortages 

As droughts continue in the MENA region, water shortages are increasing.  In Iraq, the Tigris and Euphrates rivers have experienced serious declines in water.  In Iraq, it is estimated that 30 million people are threatened by the water crisis.  Already, many crops in Iraq have not been harvested because the drought has been accompanied by he intensification of rising temperatures.  In short, much agriculture in Iraq and other parts of the region may no longer be viable, unless new methods of cultivation are developed. 

 

Over the past two decades, Iraq has lost 50% of its agricultural capacity die to salinization which has contaminated arable land.  Little effort has been devoted to swayer management and training farmers in skills to conserve and more effectively utilize water for irrigation. Extensive state corruption and the hiring of unqualified bureaucrats in many ministries has hampered efforts to enact new agricultural and environmental policies. 

Iraq’s climate conundrum: Oil reliance versus vanishing water

 

The provinces of Basra, Dhi Qar and Maysan have seen a 90% decline in population as residents have left the region due to the degradation of agriculture resulting from water shortages and declining quality of water.  As farmers have migrated out of the region, there are less farmers left to cultivate the land resulting in less food production. 

 

Iraq’s southern port city, al-Basra, which faces a severe environmental crisis, provides one of many examples of the access to water.  The Shatt al-‘Arab River, which is the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, 120 miles north of al-Basra, is polluted and thus cannot provide drinking water to the city. This pollution isn’t new but rather extends back to the 1991 Gulf War when numerous ships were sunk in the Shatt al-‘Arab. 

 

At the same time, the decreased water flow of the Tigris and Euphrates has facilitated salt water from the Persian Gulf moving up the Shatt al-‘Arab, further impeding use of the river’s water to meet the city’s needs.  The water table in the area around the city has sunk and the chemical contamination index is 100%.  To the degree that well water is available it is unsafe to drink or even use for bathing.    

 

Egypt’s water shortages have reached a level which has been designated as facing “water scarcity.”  However, access to adequate water in Egypt has now brought the country close to “absolute water scarcity.”  Egypt derives 90% of its water from areas beyond its borders and 95% from the Nile River.  Thus, Egypt is one of the most water dependent countries on the planet. 

 

At the moment, Egypt is facing a challenge from Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which is meant to increase the country’s electricity supply through the hydropower produced by the dam.  For Egypt, however, the dam is viewed as potentially an existential threat.   

With the Mediterranean Sea’s rising waters, which are pushing into the Nile River 2 tributaries which enter the sea, and contaminating arable land with salt, any decline in the Nile’s flow would further exacerbate these problems.  Only 3% of Egypt’s land is arable, while 30% of its population depend on agriculture.  Severe water shortages would have a devastating effect on the country.  It is ironic that the 2 MENA region countries – Iraq and Egypt - where world civilization began are facing the possibility that their agricultural sectors could, by 2050, collapse 

Dual Threat: Water Scarcity and Rising Sea Levels in Egypt.  

 

Negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia have not led to a resolution of the dispute.  Egypt has called upon Ethiopia not to fill the lake behind the dam but, despite American and foreign assistance with negotiations, Ethiopia has so far refused Egypt’s demand, producing a threat of military intervention by Egypt.  With Ethiopia preoccupied with a grinding civil war, the government of Prime Minister Abi Ahmed lie with that conflict, not with reaching an accord on the Nile water flow with Egypt.  

 

Civil strife 

Already, we have seen another serious of the impact of the climate crisis which is an increase in civil strife.  Many Westerners and even Arabs believe that the Syrian civil war was based in radical Islamism.  The actual cause was the impact of a serious drought along the upper Euphrates River which forced the residents of 175 villages to leave them because they lacked enough water to sustain themselves.  As these Syrians moved westward seeking access to government services in large urban areas, that assistance wasn’t forthcoming.

Demonstrations ensued, which morphed into calls for democratic change in Syria, which led to a brutal crackdown by the al-Asad regime.  Once the demonstrations spread to other areas of the country, Bashar al-Asad released imprisoned terrorists in an effort to change the narrative of the opposition to his regime from demands for democratic change, to one based on radical Islamist terrorism versus the continued power of a secular nationalist regime. 

 

The climate crisis along the Euphrates River which caused the population to leave eastern Syria and laid the groundwork of the horrific civil war which subsequently ensued.  Half of Syria’s population has been displaced by the civil war.  Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have been killed and thousands have become refugees, either moving to Lebanon or other Arab countries, or trying to migrate to Europe and other Western countries.    

Iranian farmers and supporters protest water scarcity Isfahan

The Syrian civil war isn’t an isolated phenomenon.  There are many other sources of MENA region civil strife caused by the intensification of the climate crisis.  In Iran, 97% of the population suffers from water shortages. The diverting of water by the Iranian regime from Khuzestan Province in the southeast, which is inhabited by ethnic Arabs, to farmers of Persian ethnicity in Iran’s central plateau, led to widespread demonstrations in July 2021. Farmers in Khuzestan were deeply angered by being deprived of their traditional sources of water. Several demonstrators were killed by security forces. 

Violence Escalates in Water-Shortage Protests in Iran's Khuzestan

 

In Isfahan, farmers, supported by tens of thousands of supporters, protested the dry bed of the city’s Zayanderound River.  Instead of water being allowed in the riverbed, it has been diverted though underground pipes to provide the residents of the Shi’a religious city of Qum and industrial complexes in Yazd Province.  After allowing the demonstration for a few days, the Tehran regime finally cracked down on the protesting farmers who were forced to disperse. 

Iran Forcefully Clamps Down on Protests Against Growing Water Shortage

It is interesting to note that references were made in the report of the Khuzestan demonstrations that “water mafias” had been involved in stealing water from its sources, thus depriving citizens of it.  In other words, as the water crisis in the Middle East grows, we can expect criminal elements to try and benefit from shortages for their material gain.  Thus, the climate crisis will further undermine the region’s stability.   

 

Solutions 

Despite an abundance of sun, and large amounts of vacant land, MENA region countries have yet to mobilize the power of the sun.  One of the few countries which has developed solar energy is Morocco which has the distinction of having built the world’s largest solar power complex in Quarzazate. Four solar power plants produce electricity fo 1;3 million people in an area of 3000 hectares, larger than the city of Paris, in the desert.  

 

Solar panels line the Atlas Mountains facing south where large tubes of synthetic oil heated turbines during the daytime hours. The panels adjust their direction throughout the day to obtain the maximum benefit from the sun’s energy.  Recently, Morocco has used molten salt which it heats in tubes next to the solar panels.  The saltwater is heated to such a temperature that it continues to provide solar energy for 3 hours after the sun has set. 

KFW - Renewable energy: Solar power from the desert

 

Morocco’s incentive to develop solar power is its lack of fossil fuels.  To avoid the possibility of rising oil and natural gas prices, it seeks to reach a 52% threshold of renewable energy by 2030.  Its plans include a goal of developing an excess of solar energy so that it will be able to export some of it to Europe. 

https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/morocco-solar-farm-power-big-as-paris/ 

 

Egypt recently decided to open bids on a huge area of land in the south near the border with Sudan.  This solar plant is intended to be the largest in the MENA region.  Will this plant be constructed in a timely and financially sound manner? The Egyptian military controls 30-40% of Egypt’s budget and may interfere in the project.  In 2011, when a group of youth tried to form Karm Solar – a solar energy firm – the military denied the fledgling company access to the national electric grid.  Karm Solar is now a profitable company but, among the corrupt members of elite, profits always trump civic nationalism. 

www.karmsolar.com  

 

In an effort to tackle its chronic electricity shortage problem and reduce dependence on Iran for electrical energy, Iraq has likewise commissioned the development of solar power plants. In March 2021, Iraq contracted with TotalEnergies for a 1 GW solar power plant, and in August 2021, it signed an agreement with PowerChina, which is state-owned and located in Dubai, to develop 2 solar power plants. In October 2021, it signed a contract for 5 plants with the UAE, which are to be built in Dhi Qar Province in the south, in Ramadi in central Iraq, in Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, and in Amara in 

the country’s southeast.  

Iraq, UAE Contract to Build 5 Solar Power Stations

 

Regional Water Authorities 

An important step in confronting MENA region water shortages would be to establish regional water authority commissions.  In light of the problems mentioned above, one such authority could include Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria.  All 4 countries riverine systems are interdependent, i.e., the Tigris, Euphrates, and Zab rivers and their tributaries. 

 

One of the main problems for water has been the focus on national water priorities.  While this may have made sense 50 years ago, it no longer is a viable strategy.  Turkey is in the strongest negotiating position since it controls the headquarters of the Euphrates River where it has constructed several dams.  These dams have deprived Syria and Iraq of needed water for agricultural irrigation.  Likewise,Iran has constructed dams on the Zab which delivers water to Iraq, diminishing water flows into the Tigris River. 

Cheekha Dar (Kurdish: Black Tent) - Iraq's highest mountain

Iraq possesses a mountainous terrain in the KRG where snow accumulates during the winter months.  Iraqi Kurdistan – the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) – controls an important source of water in terms of runoff from the Zagros and Qandil mountain ranges.  If runoff from the mountains could be captured in larger quantities, Iraq could use that water for mother parts of the country and even offer Turkey water to compensate for what it would lose should it be willing to release water from its dams on the Euphrates. 

Iraq's Highest Mountains

Iran could likewise benefit from this water policy.  If it obtained more water from the Zagros range, it too could use this resource for its agriculture and feel less pressure to dam the Zab and its tributaries, thus having a less adverse effect on the Tigris. 

https://vimeo.com/401658148  

 

Democracy and terrorism 

Many suggestions can be made as to how the Middle East region should confront the region’s growing climate emergency.  However, the persistence of corrupt authoritarian regimes in the region has worked to impede needed reforms, much less bold innovative policies.  Thus, democracy promotion in the MENA region is not just a choice, bit a necessity.  Corrupt rulers are concerned about their pocketbooks, not their citizens’’ well-being. 

 

Movements like the October Revolution (Thawrat Tishreen) in Iraq, and the youth movements in Iraqi Kurdistan (the KRG), the Sudan, Algeria and Lebanon require more international support. Only through removing corrupt ruling elites, can the MENA region move forward in diversifying its oil economies, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy, such as Morocco is doing, and develop strategies to assure water and food security. 

 

The Middle East’s failure to democratize promises not just climate-induced catastrophes but fertile ground for terrorist organizations, such as the Islamic State (Da’ish) and al-Qa’ida to reemerge as major threats to the region.  The most immediate impact of the climate emergency has been the migration of peoples who are adversely affected by it, the Syrian civil war being just one example.  The climate crisis in Darfur, with struggle over shrinking agricultural land, is another case in point, especially since former Sudanese president, Omar al-Bashir, exploited the divisions among local tribes for his personal benefit.

It is critical that the Biden administration, the European Union and the United Nations put more pressure on regimes in the MENA region, such as the al-Sisi regime in Egypt, the MBS regime in Saudi Arabia, and the Erdogan regime in Turkey, to end their repressive policies.  At the end of the day, the Climate Emergency will spare no country in the Global North or Global South. 

 

The 2021 MENA Region Dictator of the Year Award جائزة دكتاتور العام في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا لعام 2021

As 2021 draws to a close, it is clear that authoritarian rule will continue to dominate most of the countries of the MENA region. Given the durability of authoritarian rule in the region, it seems appropriate to recognize those dictators who have been able to cling to power with an award.  Thus, The New Middle East begins a tradition of ending each year with the MENA Region Dictator’s Award. 

What criteria should be used when bestowing this award?  Obviously, the degree of repression that a dictator brings to bear on the population he rules is a paramount criterion (and let us not forget that authoritarianism is a strictly male phenomenon in the MENA region).  This repression should not only be evaluated contemporaneously but diachronically as well.  Namely, how long has the dictator been able to sustain his repression? 

A second criterion is the extent to which the dictator is not only able to repress his countrymen but exercise a negative impact on MENA region areas beyond the nation he rules. To what extent has his dictatorial rule helped spread authoritarianism, and its accompanying repression, beyond his country’s borders? 

 

A third criterion is the special gifts that a dictator brings to his form and style of repressive rule. What is it about the dictator that makes his rule unique?  In other words, what creativity has the dictator exhibited in keeping the nation he rules under his control? In what ways has his actions enhanced the intimidation of the populace so that they don’t challenge his rule? 

 

A fourth criterion is the degree to which the dictator has been able to use corruption and nepotism to strengthen his rule.  A shrewd dictator realizes that force and intimidation are in themselves not an adequate basis for long-term rule.  The ability to steal from the public purse and use this theft for political ends is a key component of any true dictator’s playbook. 

Finally, to what extent has the dictator been able to recruit and mobilize support from nations outside the MENA region?  Clearly, most dictators in the region have been able to use foreign military, financial and diplomatic support to consolidate their rule.  Thus, a successful dictator must be able to enlist foreign benefactors in exchange for providing them with services.  Such services can include military bases, intelligence sharing, privileged investment opportunities and the use of the country for military maneuvers. 

One of the problems in making the 2021 MENA Region Dictator’s Award is the great number of repressive rules from which to choose.  To avoid discriminating between dictators, The New Middle East has decided to make the award to 5 dictators.  In first place is Syria’s Bashar al-Asad.  Second place goes to Iran’s Ebrahim Raisi.  The third-place winner is Egypt’s ‘Abd l-Fattah al-Sisi.  Following in fourth place is Saudi Arabia’s Muhammad bin Salman while fifth place is awarded to Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

How then were the awards decided?  In the case of the first-place winner, Bashar al-Asad is one of the few leaders in the Middle East or elsewhere to oversee the destruction of his country and its descent into chaos and anarchy and still maintain his power and that of his family and hangers on.  Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have been killed since the Arab Spring Uprisings began in 2011 and it is estimated that half of Syria’s population has been dislocated. 

One of Bashar’s shrewdest strategic moves was to release terrorist from prison once the Syrian populace began its demands for democracy.  As he knew, these former prisoners took up arms against the regime allowing it to portray the Syrian conflict as one of radical Islamist terrorism against regional stability, rather than democracy against authoritarianism.  This move was important in mobilizing Arab and international support for Bashar’s regime, and also critical to sustaining the loyalty of the Syrian Army and state security services. 

Ebrahim Raisi is infamously known in Iran as “the hanging judge.”  In 1988, he was one of 4 members of a regime committee which sent thousands of Iranian dissidents to the gallows.  Of course, he has never had to pay the price for his role in these massive executions which rise to the level of crimes against humanity. 

Raisi spent several years inn control of one of the many state “foundations” (bonyad) which are repositories for Iran’s oil wealth.  The corrupt clerical elite draws upon these funds with no accountability.  Thus, while the Iranian economy suffers from international economic sanctions related to its nuclear weapons program and efforts to destabilize Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen and the Arab Gulf, Raisi and the Iranian political elite want for nothing and enjoy comfortable lives. 

 

Although only elected president last August, Raisi has been a core actor in the so-called Islamic Republic since the toppling of the Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi in late 1978 and early 1979. A consistent hardliner, he has blood on his hands not just from the “hanging campaign” of 1988, but the repression of dissent in Iran, the killing of protestors who have contested elections, e.g., in 2009, and enticing dissidents to return from abroad after which they have been tried, imprisoned and even executed. 

Iran still seeks to erase the ‘1988 prison massacre’ from memories, 25 years on

Raisi has adopted a hard line on reinstating the JCPOA, the international agreement to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. While it was a grave mistake for Donald Trump to withdraw the US from the agreement, Raisi's hard line on reinstating the accord threatens to create a MENA region nuclear arms race if the negotiations fail. If Iran subsequently develops such weapons, it might prompt Israel to attack Iran, unleashing serious regional and international instability.

Number three on our list is Egyptian President ^cAbd al-Fattah al-Sisi.  In June 2013, the Egyptian Army overthrew the only democratically elected president, Muhammad Mursi, since the Egyptian July 22^nd 1952, Revolution (coup d’etat). Mursi was a feckless Islamist who tried to strengthen the position of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, a policy rejected by the majority of Egypt’s population. Still, the Army did not seek a new election but rather imposed a new repressive regime. 

Since taking power, the al-Sisi regime has imposed the most oppressive rule since the army seized power in 1952.  With no access to Egypt’s notorious jails and so-called “security camps,” Egyptian and foreign journalists have great difficulty in obtaining information on the hundreds of human rights and civil society activists, as well as journalist and other critics of the regime. 

However, an insight into the brutality of al-Sisi regime came with the killing of Giulio Regeni in Cairo in February 2016.  Regeni was an Italian doctoral student from Cambridge University who was conducting research on Egypt’s labor movement. His mutilated body was discovered in a ditch in poor Cairo neighborhood. Regeni had obviously been tortured.  Indeed, his parents indicated they could not recognize his body when it was returned to his home in Italy. 

Regeni murder: Trial of Egyptians for Italian student's murder suspended

Regeni’s murder caused outrage in Italy and elsewhere.  It led the Italian government to recall its ambassador to Egypt.  However, the al-Sisi regime refused to cooperate with Italian investigators and the crime remains unsolved.  If we think about Regeni’s torture and murder by Egyptian secret police for the sole crime of studying Egypt’s working class, then we realize what the fate is of Egyptians who are arrested and thrown into Egypt’s jails. 

The al-Sisi regime excels in corruption and nepotism which benefits him and his clique        

(al-shilla). The Egyptian Army controls an estimated 30% of the state budget.  It produces many non-military goods such as bottled water and pasta sauce as well as collecting funds from services such as collecting tolls on Egypt’s highways. Not surprisingly, it is illegal in Egypt to publish the military’s budget. 

In many Western circles, Saudi Crown Prince, Muhammad bin Salman ibn Sa'ud, has been hailed as a reformer.  As they say, however, you can’t tell a book by its cover. MBS has introduced many social changes in Saudi society, even as he has suppressed dissent.  For example, he imprisoned a young Saudi woman, Loujain al-Hathloul, who advocated for the right of women to be able to drive automobiles for 3 years.  Even though MBS had already announced that women would have this right, she was imprisoned and subject to torture and sexual harassment and forbidden to be in contact with her. 

After convincing his father, King Salman, to cede the reins of power to him, MBS arrested a large number of princes, including the prominent progressive, Prince al-Walid bin Talal, and locked them up in the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Riyadh. He accused them of corruption and failing to pay taxes.  It is alleged that some princes were hung by their arms to force them to pay up. 

 

Shortly after fleecing the princes of hundreds of millions of dollars, MBS bough a yacht for $452 million and a painting supposedly by Leonardo da Vinci for $450 million while cutting social spending in the Kingdom.  (For details on MBS’ purchase of Leonardo’s Salvator Mundi, which is of dubious provenance, see the film, The Lost Leonardo - https://www.sonyclassics.com/film/thelostleonardo  

Of course, one of the key criteria in awarding MBS a 2021 MENA Region Dictator of the Year Award is his killing ofWashington Post columnist and Saudi dissident, Jamal Khashoggi, in 2018. But MBS went farther than just murdering Khashoogi. He had the columnist's body dismembered, earning him the moniker of MBS (Mr. Buzz Saw).

Meanwhile, MBS decision to enter the civil war in Yemen has led to thousands of causalities due to the indiscriminate bombing of Yemeni targets.  It is estimated that 25% of the casualties caused by Saudi air attacks have been Yemeni civilians, increasing the misery of the populace of the poorest nation in the Arab world. 

The final award goes to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan After beginning his rule as Prime Minister in 2002, Erdogan returned to power in 2008 and has, since then, become increasingly autocratic. Intolerant of dissent, like all dictators, Erdogan has jailed hundreds of journalists, earning his regime the dubious honor of having the largest number of journalists imprisoned per capita of any country in the world. 

The Turkish president has removed secular Turks from educational posts in secondary schools and universities and replaced them with loyal Islamists from his Justice and development Party (AKP).  Thus, he has tried to restructure the educational system to indoctrinate Turkish youth into the AKP's politicized Islamist ideology.

Erdoğan's damage is not limited to Turkey. He has promoted sectarianism and great instability in Eastern Turkey and north eastern Syria where he has used mercenaries - some with ties to the former Islamic State - to attack one of the main opposition groups to terrorists in eastern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces, solely because they are comprised of Syrian (Rojava) Kurds.

Turkey’s Transnational Repression: Abduction, Rendition and Forcible Return of Erdoğan Critics

Meanwhile, Erdoğan is the only one of the dictators who seems to be digging his own grave. The Turkish economy has suffered from speculative growth and the Turkish Lira has suffered as result. Many loans used for construction were inn US dollars. As the Lira has lost value, paying back these loans becomes increasingly difficult. The current rate of inflation may be as high as 60%, but Erdoğan refuses to raise interest rates. As the economy deteriorates, the Turkish president's popularity is plummeting, even among his AKP supporters.

Cashing In Grandma’s Gold Coins, a Turkish Family Struggles to Get By

Where do these dictators leave the MENA region in 2022?  None is tackling the economic crises facing their societies. Even in Saudi Arabia where there is an estimated 25% poverty rate, social services subsidies are being cut.  None of these authoritarians is confronting the existential threat poised by the Climate Emergency.

As temperatures in the region rise and drought and water shortages become more severe, no policies for addressing these problems are being formulated.  Syria's Arab Spring Uprising was caused by the collapse of the agrarian economy due to lack of water along the Euphrates River.  The residents of 170 villages were forced to leave their homes and migrate westward, seeking state assistance in the process.  When these demands went unanswered, calls for democracy began and Syria 's destruction ensued.

Thus, the prospects for 2022 are bleak. The lack of democratic leadership in the region and the massive state corruption accompanying authoritarian rule will continue to cause the MENA region's youth - its best hope for the future - to seek to migrate abroad in search of a better future than they can expect to find in the nations in which they presently reside.

Of course, all these repressive dictators benefit from foreign support, particularly the United States or Russia.  While there is little chance that Putin will withdraw Russia's support of Bashar al-Asad's regime or the dictatorship in Tehran, the Biden administration should reconsider more arms sales to Saudi Arabia and Egypt and publicly call out the ongoing human rights abuses in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Contra the argument of Senator Rand Paul, long-tern support for dictatorial rule will come home to bite the US and undermine ny pretension it has to arguing that it supports democracy globally.