Youth and Confronting the Climate Emergency in Iraq: Examples from the American New Deal الشباب ومواجهة طوارئ المناخ في العراق: أمثلة من الصفقة الأمريكية الجديدة؟

Iraqi youth democracy protesters serve fish and rice to the poor in Baghdad 's Liberation Square

Iraq is one of five countries suffering from the most serious effects of rapid increase in temperatures.  Already high temperatures, combined with a weak electricity infrastructure, has resulted in serious health consequences for elderly and ill Iraqis, and young children.  Combined with a serious drought which began in 2007, and a decline in the water levels of Iraq’s two main rivers, the Tigris and Euphrates, Iraq is facing a Climate Emergency. What can be done to mitigate its effects?  

In addition to the Climate Emergency, Iraq is facing several other key problems.  One of the most serious is the extensive unemployment which bedevils the country, especially high among youth, both uneducated and educated alike. Iraq's youth population represents the next generation of Iraqis, in all sectors of society.  How can unemployed youth help Iraq address what could be an existential threat to society? 

 

Another problem is the ongoing attacks by cells of the Islamic State which seeks to reestablish itself in Iraq.  While these attacks do not threaten to destabilize the government, both the Federal Government in Baghdad and the KRG in Erbil, IS attacks are having an impact on Iraq’s infrastructure and agriculture.  Oil pipelines have been attacked, power lines toppled, crops have been burned, and local officials in towns and villages have been assassinated.

 

Recently, Iraq’s Minister of Infrastructure, Jasim al-Falahi, proposed that the state engage in multiple infrastructure projects, especially in electricity and agriculture.  He also suggested that the state employ large numbers of Iraqi youth to reduce waste by promoting recycling. The Minister argued that, by dramatically expanding the recycling sector, Iraq could enhance economic growth and improve health conditions.  Of course, by providing jobs, Iraq would address the discontent of many youth who can’t find employment, even those who are university graduates with advanced degrees. 

وزير البيئة لـ(المدى): مشروع لتدوير النفايات يوفر آلاف فرص العمل

As the October Revolution (Thawrat Tishreen) which began in October 2019 has demonstrated, many Iraqi youth are imbued with a strong civic consciousness and spirit. During their peaceful protests which demanded the elimination of widespread state corruption and democratic reforms, demonstrators invariably engaged in cleaning refuse in the city and town centers where their protests were held.  Food was often served to the poor and makeshift health clinics provided medical care and advice to those in need of treatment and medicine. 

 

What these developments suggest is the possibility to address two of Iraq’s most serious problems: the Climate Emergency and youth unemployment.  Currently, Iraq is enjoying increased revenues due to higher oil prices.  Using these increased funds, Iraq could establish its own CCC, comprised primarily of youth. What is suggested here is the creation of an Iraq Youth Corps (IYC) which would employ youth to tackle problems created by Iraq’s Climate Emergency. 

 

During the Great Depression of the 1930s, President Franklin Roosevelt established the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC).  Employing Americans who had lost their jobs because of the Depression, the CCC was funded by the government to build important projects throughout the United States.  One of these projects was to plant trees and cull undergrowth to increase the size and quality of American forests.  Another was building infrastructure projects in more remote and poorer areas of the United States to stimulate the local economy. 

An Iraqi Youth Corps could create groups of Arab, Kurdish, Turkmen Iraqis, as well as other ethnic and confessional groups, to participate together in these planting and infrastructural development projects in both Arab Iraq and the KRG. Thus, the CCC could become a vehicle for bringing youth from different ethnic and confessional heritages to get to know one another better, thereby contributing to a greater sense of federal unity. 

 

As the October Revolution (Thawrat Tishreen) which began in October 2019 has demonstrated, many Iraqi youth are imbued with a civic consciousness and spirit. During their peaceful protests demanding the elimination of widespread state corruption and democratic reforms, demonstrators invariably engaged in cleaning refuse in the city and town centers where protests were held.  Food was often served to the poor and makeshift health clinics provide medical care and advice to those needing treatment and medicine. 

 

What these developments suggest is the possibility of confronting two of Iraq’s most serious problems: the Climate Emergency and youth unemployment.  Currently, Iraq is enjoying increased revenues due to higher oil prices.  Using these additional funds, Iraq could establish its own CCC, comprised primarily of youth. What is suggested here is the creation of an Iraq Youth Corps (IYC) which would employ youth to tackle problems created by Iraq’s Climate Emergency. 

Iraq's 2022 Economic Forecast

 

During the Great Depression of the 1930s, President Franklin Roosevelt established the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC).  Employing Americans who had lost their jobs because of the Depression, the CCC was funded by the government to build important projects throughout the United States.  One of these projects was to plant trees and cull undergrowth to increase the size and quality of American forests.  Another was building infrastructure projects in more remote and poorer areas of the United States to stimulate the local economy. 

An Iraqi Youth Corps, modelled on the CCC, could create groups of Arab, Kurdish, Turkmen Iraqis, as well as other ethnic and confessional groups, to participate together in these planting and infrastructural development projects in both Arab Iraq and the KRG. Thus, the CCC could become a vehicle for bringing youth from different ethnic and confessional heritages to get to know one another better, thereby contributing to a greater sense of federal unity. 

 

One of the critical areas confronting Iraq is addressing is its shortage of electricity.  Since the ousting of Saddam Husayn in 2003, whose Ba^cthist regime had distributed electricity to Baghdad to the detriment of southern Iraq, electric power remains in short supply throughout the country.  The lack of electricity has forced many Iraqis to purchase generators which run on highly polluting diesel fuel.  Not only is this costly, but it has dramatically increased air pollution in many Iraqi cities and towns.  Serious negative health consequences have been caused by the resultant air pollution. 

 

To improve national electric production, Iraq is currently building large solar farms, especially in the south of the country, with the help of Chinese and German firms.  However, these solar farms won’t meet the immediate needs of Iraqis in the south of the country, where temperatures rise to above 50 degrees Celsius (125 F), during the summer months.  

 

Through installing affordable solar panels, either placed on roof of houses, or in small solar farms near residential areas, Iraq could address the lack of air conditioning which has led to the death of the elderly, ill and very young.  Given the abundance of sunlight, solar energy is a natural step in developing Iraq’s energy infrastructure. 

Training youth to install solar energy panels would address several problems at once. Most importantly, Iraqis wouldn’t have to wait until large electricity generators are built to gain access to electricity.  Instead, they could benefit immediately from the installation of solar panels. Second, the installation process would offer employment to Iraqi youth. Offering jobs and a steady income would reducing discontent among youth who constitute Iraq's largest demographic, comprising 70% of the population under the age of 30. 

 

One way to promote solar energy would be to recruit local notables, clerics, tribal leaders and merchants to support these projects, thereby lending them greater legitimacy.  In return, these notables could take partial credit for the solar panels having been installed and assume added responsibility for their security. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken credit for solar energy provided to farmers in the village of Palli in Indian controlled Kashmir. This has delighted village residents who heretofore had to burn wood and lacked a continuous source of energy. 

Modi, in restive region, trumpets Green Energy

 

By developing a solar energy industry in Iraq, youth would engage in training which could teach them critical skills which, to those who sought to remain in the industry, would be useful for a lifetime.  The use of solar panels would allow many Iraqi families to dispense with diesel fueled generators which are often the only sources of electricity.  Air pollution would be reduced in the process of transitioning to solar energy. 

  

Further, providing electricity, the lack of which has led to consistent protests during the extremely hot summer months, would quell much of the anger directed at the government in Baghdad which is considered remote and uninterested in the difficulties ordinary Iraqis face in their everyday lives.  Lack of electricity has sparked violent protests in southern Iraq over the past several summers and show no sign of abating if the issue isn’t addressed. 

 

As temperatures rise, and its drought continues, Iraq faces increasing desertification.  This process has led to the development of dust storms, in part due to reduced vegetation. Recent dust storms not only halted flights into and out of Iraq as airports were forced to close, but also led to increased attacks by the Islamic State terrorist group which benefited from the poor visibility caused by the storms. 

Dozens hospitalised as Iraq engulfed by dust storm  

 

By planting more vegetation, Iraq can offset the desertification process, while once again giving large numbers of youth work at the same time. To frame this work as confronting Iraq’s climate emergency, the Federal and KRG governments can make youth proud of their civic contribution to Iraq.  While planting trees is possible in the cooler climates of the hilly areas of the KRG, perennial grasses, shrubs and herbs need to be planted extensively throughout the hotter areas of the south.   

 

Members of the Iraqi Youth Corps could also be trained to help farmers in water management.  Making irrigation more efficient, planting crops in shady areas where possible, using “drip” agriculture, and teaching water conservation measures could contribute to improving the quality of Iraq’s agrarian sector and the lives of ots farmers. 

 

In the KRG, many government employees, who receive sporadic salary payments, have moved to the countryside to engage in farming for supplemental income.  Saddam’s brutal ANFAL campaign of the 1980s destroyed much of Iraqi Kurdistan’s agrarian sector.  Here Kurdish and Arab youth, who were members of the Iraqi Youth Corps, could help increase the size of the KRG’s agriculture, thereby contributing to Iraq’s food security. 

 

In many areas of Iraq, potable water is unavailable or, if available, polluted and unhealthy to drink.  This problem has seriously affected the Marshes of southern Iraq (al-Ahwar), which once enjoyed the benefit of large amounts of water, purified by the extensive papyrus and other plants which grew in the region, but which have now been seriously reduced by Iraq’s persistent drought. 

In Iraq, Drought and Abundance in the Southern Marshes

 

The Iraqi Youth Corps could work with appropriate ministries and regional agencies to engage in two important activities.  First, they could help identify areas where potable water is unavailable and report this data to government officials.  Second, they could actually deliver water to the areas where it is unavailable, thereby improving the health conditions of the local residents.  Already, we have seen in southern Iraq that lack of access to potable water has depressed birth rates and contributed to ill health among the inhabitants and their children. 

The Southern Mesopotamia: Draught and Pemphigus Threaten Women and Children

Finally, there are ongoing efforts to empower youth social entrepreneurs. Baghdad’s Kapita Business Hub, for example, incubates 20 start-ups per month. To return to Minister Jasim al-Fallahi’s proposed initiative on recycling mentioned earlier, the Iraqi Youth Corps could become a source of skilled Iraqis who could move beyond government employment to develop their own start-ups.  

KAPITA Start-up SME Incubator - Baghdad

One set of start-ups could be establishing recycling companies throughout Iraq.  Because there are already such companies in Erbil, Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq, these new firms could help create a string recycling sector in Iraq’s economy.   However, one could imagine Green Energy startups, agricultural mentoring firms, startups designed to promote civic education in schools, and Citizenship and Service Education (CASE) which would enables Iraqi students in secondary school and universities to engage in internships providing services to their country.

 

The Middle East and the Globalization of the Ukraine War

How has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affected the Middle East?  There have been many attempts to address this issue.  However, several key issues still need to be examined.  What are these issues and why are they significant?  How do they reflect on the tendency of local wars to become globalized, namely to affect regions far beyond the conflict arena?

Food shortages, poverty and authoritarian rule 

It’s already become clear that the Ukraine War has led to a spike in food prices as Russian and Ukrainian exports of corn, barley, sunflowers (for cooking oil), and especially wheat, have been dramatically curtailed.  Even if hostilities were halted soon, the 2022 agricultural  season has been irreparably damaged.  

 

With many MENA region countries dependent on wheat and other products from Ukraine and Russia, as well as Belarus, which is an important exporter of fertilizer, predictions are that severe food shortages will affect both the MENA region and the African continent.  Starvation may even result in a number of countries. Regarding wheat, the most important crop, other countries such as the United States, Brazil and Argentina will not be able to make up the shortfall caused by the Ukraine war. 

 

To take Egypt as an example, 85% of its wheat is imported. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, inflation was growing, and food prices were on the rise.  In 2016, Egypt received a large $12 billion IMF loan, which was intended to diversify the economy and address poverty, with afflicts a third of the country. 

Mideast Feels Pinch of Rising Food Prices as Ramadan Nears

 

Instead, President ‘Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi’s regime used the IMF loan for other purposes.  Funds were invested in real estate development and to construct a lavish new Egyptian in the desert outside Cairo.   Clearly, al-Sisi was more interested in meeting his personal interests and those of the Egyptian political elite, than the needs of the populace at large.  Understandably, there has been rising discontent at the inability of the regime to address rising prices which have skyrocketed just before the onset of the month of Ramadan. 

 

Not only will Putin’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine cause disadvantaged sectors of society throughout the Middle East, Africa and other countries of the Global South to suffer, but it will increase political instability.  As the Egyptian case suggests, rising food prices and the resulting food insecurity will intensify the focus on state corruption and the manner in which authoritarian regimes fulfill the interests of the small elites which support them while ignoring the needs of their citizenry. 

 

Increased opportunities for mercenaries 

Russian miscalculations of Ukrainian resistance have not only foiled its efforts to seize Ukraine’s major cities but have resulted in a very large casualties among its forces.  Indeed, Putin has been forced to move troops from eastern Russia and even from the breakaway Russian occupied regions of Georgia to come fight in Ukraine. 

Reports indicate that over 40,000 Syrians have volunteered to fight for Russia in Ukraine.  While one might think this reflects support for Russia and its goals in attacking Ukraine, interviews with Syrians going to fight in Ukraine indicate otherwise.  Those getting ready to fly to Russia indicate that they cannot support themselves and their families given Syria’s ravaged economy. With Russia willing to pay $7000 per month for those willing to serve on the frontlines, and $3500 for those willing to serve in ancillary military roles, the material needs of many males of combat age are such that they are drawn to taking up Putin’s offer, albeit reluctantly. 

Ukraine War: The Syrians Signing Up to Fight for Russia

 

With the MENA region facing droughts, water shortages and rising temperatures, resulting from the impact of the global Climate Emergency, we can expect instability in the region to increase, regardless of the Ukraine war, especially in those countries which lack significant resources, such as oil and natural gas.  As local economies, such as those of Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Yemen, Algeria and Lebanon, face ever greater challenges, autocrats like Putin will find a growing source of mercenaries ready to fight for whoever is willing to pay them salaries. 

 

Russia’s ability to exercise power in the MENA region 

What few analysts have speculated on thus far is the extent to which the sanctions to which Russia has been subjected will affect its global foreign policy. What will be the sanctions’ long term impact?  While the impact has yet to be fully felt, Russia will no doubt remain a pariah state long after the Ukraine war has ended, especially if Vladimir Putin retains power.  Will the myriad Western corporations which have shut down their operations in Russia be willing to return to the status quo ante after the war is over? 

When looking at Russia’s role in the MENA region, Syria immediately comes to mind. Will Russia have the economic wherewithal and the manpower needed to continue its active support of Bashar al-Asad’s regime in Syria?  The Syrian economy is on life support and al-Asad’s control of much of the country is tenuous at best.  In what ways could the Russian-Syrian alliance be a causality of what is increasingly an enormous blunder which Putin made in attacking Ukraine? 

 

Russia has committed to building a new nuclear reactor in Iran.  However, the rigorous sanctions which have been imposed by the West, Japan, South Korea, and other countries have severed Russia’s access to crucial technology, such as microchips.  There have been reports that Russia is having difficulty in servicing and repairing its energy industry’s infrastructure due to a lack of spare parts and other technical requirements. Under these circumstances, will Russia be able to exert political influence though development projects which it can no longer implement? 

 

Turkey’s relationship to Russia will certainly undergo change as well. There was great concern when Turkey concluded an agreement with Russia to purchase its S-400 missile system.  However, Putin’s miscalculation that the invasion of Ukraine would lead to a quick Russian victory and replacing the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy has lengthened the invasion far beyond Russia’s initial expectation. This delay in bringing Putin’s “Special military Operation” to a close has forced Turkey to close the Straits of the Bosporus and Dardanelles, preventing Russian access to the Black Sea, thereby impeding its ability to attack southern Ukrainian port cities. 

 

Perhaps more significant is the drones which Turkey has supplied to Ukraine’s military.  The Bayrakter TB2 is an inexpensive ($2 million each) and slow-moving drone.  However, it is simple to operate and has been responsible for large numbers of Russian casualties thus far in the Ukraine war.  Further, the drones have been key in providing the Ukrainian government with visual imagery of the large number of Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers which Ukraine has been able to destroy. 

Cheap but lethal Turkish drones bolster Ukraine’s defenses

Changing alliance structures in the Middle East 

Another area which requires more study is the impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have on local alliance structures.  Israel has been criticized for its tepid condemnation of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and its unwillingness to impose sanctions on Russia.  Israel has developed a tacit agreement with Russia that it can attack Hizballah units in Syria and Lebanon, as well as Iranian arms shipments to Syria, despite Russia’s support of the al-Asad regime.   

However, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has come under increasing criticism from within his own governing coalition, especially from Foreign Minister, Yair Lapid, and members of the US Congress. Will the Israeli-Russian tacit agreement over Syrian and Lebanon withstand the test of the Ukraine war, especially as Russia reduces Ukrainian cities to rubble, as it has already done with Mariupol? 

 

Finally, what impact has the war had on the MENA region’s core conflict, namely the struggle for regional hegemony between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies?  With the recent summit in Israel’s Negev Desert, which bought together the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco and Israel, will the anti-Iranian alliance become stronger?  Will Russia lose influence as it’s left to maneuver between the competing forces, namely Iran and the Arab-Israel alliance?     

 

If anti-Iranian forces feel empowered through Israel's support, and become more aggressive towards Iran, especially if its Houthi allies in Yemen continue to send drones to bomb Saudi and UAE targets, how will Putin respond?  Will Putin double down on Russia’s support for the Tehran regime, or will he moderate his support for Iran in hopes of retaining ties to Arab states, some of which have purchased Russian arms, such as Egypt, as well as Israel? 

A spread of terrorism? 

Little attention has been given to the possible spread of terrorism in the MENA region caused by rising food prices, an important driver of the Arab Spring uprisings.  With increased economic disruption, it is conceivable to envision Libya and Syria becoming venues for the spread of terrorist groups loyal to the Islamic State, and to seeing an increase of the Islamic State’s ongoing attacks in northern and north central Iraq.  

The World Changed on February 24, 2022: What Impact will Putin's War Have on the Middle East العالم تغير في 24 فبراير 2022: ما هو تأثير حرب بوتين على الشرق الأوسط؟

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy leading Ukraine's war against Putin's aggression

What impact’s is Vladimir Putin’s brutal attack on Ukraine having on the Middle East?  Many observers, both analysts and lay people, feel that, as long as NATO stays out of the conflict, the rest of the world need not worry about the war because no nuclear weapons will be used as a result.  However, we only need look at one region of the world, the Middle East, to realize that it’s naïve to think that the invasion of Ukraine’s impact will be limited to the two countries fighting the current war. 

First, there is the issue of food insecurity.  The MENA region and much of Africa is highly dependent on Russia and Ukraine which produce roughly 30% of the world’s wheat, a grain critical to the diet of millions of people and one that helps prevent starvation. 

In North Africa, Ukraine War Strains Economies Weakened by Pandemic  

 

Egypt, for example, has been having problems feeding its ever-growing population for many decades. Already food prices are high and the lack of wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine will only increase prices still further.  What is highly disturbing is that rising wheat process may lead to serious problems for the poor in Egypt and many other nations. 

Egypt: Bread Prices Soar Amid Effects of Crisis

 

Second, there is the increased tension between the major Arab oil producing countries in the MENA region, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and the US and European Union.  The West’s stringent sanctions regime has made it much harder for Russia to not only export its oil and natural gas but to sustain the financing of its energy industry given its inability to access foreign currency.  Investors always fears of the economic consequences war. The reduction of Russian oil and natural gas exports, however limited, still is forcing the price of oil and natural gas to skyrocket. 

 

In natural gas production, Qatar has stepped in willingly to try and meet rising global demand to offset cuts in Russian natural gas to Europe, whether as a result of sanctions or Putin’s decisions to reduce the flow.  However, both Saudi Arabia and, initially, the UAE have refused to increase production which they both could do quickly. 

 

What is especially disturbing is that leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE refused to take telephone calls from President Joe Biden.  Not only was this an insult to the US president, but it demonstrated how the US and the West can no longer depend on these two powerful oil-producing countries to sacrifice profits when it comes to global security. 

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls with Biden during Ukraine Crisis  

 

However, today we learned that the UAE has agreed to increase oil production outside the OPEC+ agreement with Russia. Putin shrewdly pushed this agreement prior to the invasion of Ukraine in an effort to prevent Saudi Arabia and the UAE – which have spare capacity (2 million barrels/day and one million barrels/per day respectively) – from filling the gap if Russian oil was sanctioned. 

Oil Prices Retreat as UAE Proposes OPEC Increase Oil Production at a Faster Pace

 

If Saudi Arabia, which indicated it was disturbed not to have been informed of the UAE decision before it was announced, thinks that partnering with Russia (and China) offers a better option than its traditional alliance with the United States and Europe, then Muhammad Bin Salman and the Saudi leadership are very foolish indeed.  Russia is led by an unpredictable leader, as his strategically disastrous miscalculation of the invasion of Ukraine demonstrates.   

China is a global economic power which is still constrained in its technological growth by a highly authoritarian and likewise unpredictable regime.  In nether Russia or China, does the rule of law exercise much influence.  Further, the Saudi and Arab Gulf economies are highly intertwined with American banks, investment firms and corporations. To jeopardize these ties makes no sense.  

 

A third area of impact is less visible but may play a greater role in the coming days and weeks.  There have been reports that Putin is trying to recruit Syrian fighters from Bashar al-Asad’s regime.  These fighters have been involved in urban warfare against radical Islamists in Syria.  Using foreign fighters like these could cut Russian troop losses which are already estimated to be 12,000 killed and over 30,000 wounded. In Putin's view, instead of having troops in body bags returned to Russia, have them go to Syria and other MENA region allies. 

Russia Recruiting Syrians for Urban Combat in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say

 

Other candidates for Putin’s recruitment strategy could be Iran, Iraq and Lebanon.  Iranian troops, who are part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), could join the mercenaries brought to the battlefield in Ukraine to augment Russian forces.  In Iraq, there has been a not inconsiderable public support for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine from militias (al-Hashad al-Sha^cbi) which support Iran.  Posters of Putin haven been seen in parts of Baghdad and elsewhere.  Finally, Lebanon’s Hizballah might also send forces to fight in Ukraine. 

Ukraine war highlights internal divides in Mideast nations 

 

Needless to say, fighters participating in Ukraine’s war with Russia will further contribute to political polarization and instability in the Middle East.  Because the fighters would be overwhelmingly Alawites or Shi^ca, this development would frighten Sunni Arab countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states. Their response would be to use sectarian rhetoric to prop up their social base in their respective countries. 

 

Fourth, there is the possible global impact of Russia’s inability to service its foreign debt. According to most projections, it will default on its foreign debt in April and beyond. The impact of Russia's default will be to frighten foreign investors, especially those with exposure to emerging market countries, such as Brazil, India, China and, in the Middle East, Egypt and Turkey, and withdraw their funding for projects in these countries. 

Russia's 'Imminent' Default would be Catastrophic. Here's Why

The lack of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which many emerging market countries have depended on, will only further erode their economic development.  Thus, we see that the international sanctions, historically the most stringent on a country the size of Russia, are not only directly affecting Putin’s regime, but having an economic impact far beyond the Ukraine war.   

 

Finally, there is the strong inventive which Putin’s invasion has sparked for European countries to switch their energy supplies from dependence on Russia. While natural gas will no doubt play a longer term role in Europe’s energy needs, the reduction of oil imports will speed up as governments ramp up building wind and solar energy farms and use financial incentives to foster their citizens to switch from combustion vehicles to electric cars. 

This means a decline in demand for oil from MENA region oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Libya and the Arab Gulf states. Because most analysts have believed that demand for oil wouldn't experience a serious decline before 2030, the huge mistake Putin made by invading Ukraine may actually be to speed up the transition to renewable sources of energy, thereby reducing revenues to Russia and Middle East oil producers. 

Why Putin's Invasion of Ukraine Cannot be Allowed to Stand

A Russian soldier killed in Putin's invasion - for what end?

Vladimir Putin continues his brutal and unprovoked attack on Ukraine. The Russian dictator has ordered an illegal, unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine, a democratic, sovereign nation, and United Nations member. There is no reason for the attack and it has been condemned by virtually every member nation of the UN as contravening international law.

Hundreds of Ukrainian civilians and members of its armed forces have already been killed, along with invading Russian troops. Russian saboteurs have infiltrated Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.  Their goal is to topple the government and kill Volodymyr Zelensky, the democratically elected president (who won his election with 73% of the national vote).  

Putin claims that his attack is to "de-Nazify" Ukraine, despite the fact that President Zelensky is Jewish, that members of his family died in the Holocaust, and that other family members joined the Red (Soviet) Army to fight the Nazis and died in that struggle .

President Zelensky has asked Putin to begin negotiations so the fighting can stop.  Putin's response was to ask Ukrainians to take up arms against their government who he referred to as " a group of drug addicts and neo-Nazis."  Although Putin continues to say he wants negotiations, his response to Zelensky was not that of someone who is serious about ending the current war peacefully.
Putin references neo-Nazis and drug addicts in bizarre speech to Russian security council

Putin's invasion is an attack on democracy and human rights, and threatens to destabilize Europe and the world beyond.  Already, wheat supplies from Ukraine, one of the world's largest exporters of wheat, have been disrupted, threatening food supplies to countries dependent on it. What is happening is the result of the ego of an aging Russian leader who has rehabilitated Josef Stalin, the Soviet dictator who is responsible for killing over 30 million Soviet citizens, and who seeks to resurrect the Soviet Union to cement his "legacy" as a "Great Russian Leader."

What have we learned thus far about Putin's war? 
When Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky proposed talks to end the war, Putin response demonstrated that only regime change and the destruction of Ukraine's democracy will end his vicious attack.  Having indicated that Ukraine has always been part of Russia, and that it has no legitimate status as an independent nation-state, it is clear Putin wants to incorporate Ukraine into the Russian Federation.   

This week Donald Trump called Putin a “savvy and smart guy” for launching his invasion of Ukraine to serve as a "peacekeeper.".  Meanwhile, China and India were among the handful of nations which have not condemned Russia’s attack and abstained in a UN Security Council resolution condemning the invasion.  Meanwhile, Italy said it would join the European Union in imposing sanctions on Russia, but they wouldn’t include “luxury goods,” such as Ferrari automobiles. Belgium said its sanctions wouldn’t apply to diamonds. 

Italy's luxury sector and Belgium's diamond leaders question effectiveness of Russian sanctions 

 

What do these comments and decisions tell us about the state of global democracy?  Two things. First, autocracy is on the move and democratic Western nations are doing little to stop it.  Autocratic government comes in “soft” and “hard” forms. It either manifests itself as populism or sham democracy, or as strong repression. The latter form includes the imprisonment and torture of anyone who expresses dissent with the reigning leader and political order.  We have seen this repression in the arrest and imprisonment of over a thousand Russians who have taken to the streets of Russian cities to protest the war. 

Second, money talks. Profits, the currency of the neoliberal realm, increasingly trump democratic values.  In this framing of society, all citizens are engaged in an implicit “war of all against all,” not in the Hobbesian state of nature sense of the term, but in their goal-oriented behavior in liberal democratic societies. Status is defined by wealth. Building political community and civic engagement are relics of the past.  Individual advancement, whether it adversely affects society or not, is what the young are being taught to value by their elders. 

 

Current sanctions are not enough 

Despite President Biden’s assertion that the US and its European Union allies have imposed the toughest sanctions ever deployed on the Putin regime and Russia, they are insufficient.  It is understandable that the West seeks to avoid a military confrontation with Putin.  However, the US and the West have come up seriously short in the sanctions regime they have applied thus far.  Placing sanctions on Russia’s oil and natural gas exports, breaking diplomatic relations with Putin's regime, and refusing to issue any visas to Russians seeking to travel to the West are necessary if the sanctions are to have any immediate impact.    

 

Above all, sanctions must include uncovering the stashes of the illicit gains of the Russian Oligarchs who benefit from and support Putin if the sanctions are to really bite.  Putin's Oligarchs own mansions, yachts, and football clubs in Western countries and have money deposited in Western banks and invested in Western corporations.  Their ill-gotten wealth is, in fact, constantly being laundered through Western countries. 

 

The Oligarchs’ influence is especially strong in the United Kingdom. Their families often maintain permanent residence in London and elsewhere, obtain education in elite schools and universities, and vacation there as well. Many Oligarchs have made significant contributions to Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party in an effort to deflect any inquiry into the status of the funds they bring to the United Kingdom. 

Exclusive: 623 new ‘British’ companies are actually controlled from Russia 

 

As Paul Krugman and others have noted, Europe unwisely tethered its energy needs to Russian supplies of oil and natural gas. The resultant dependence on Russian energy has led Putin to believe that any political behavior in which he engages, no matter how destructive and beyond the parameters of international law, will not engender a Western response. 

Laundered Money Could Be Putin’s Achilles’ Heel

 

It is to Chancellor Olaf Scholtz’s credit that, immediately after Russia attacked Ukraine, he stopped the process of approving the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.  However, Scholtz’s courageous act, which will increase still further the already high prices Germans pay for natural gas, stands in sharp contrast to the behavior of former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.  

How to Stop Former Western Leaders From Becoming Paid Shills for Autocrats

Despite serving as the former leader of Germany’s august Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has stood for social justice since its founding in the late 19^th century, Schroeder recently accepted a position on the Board of Directors of Russia’s Gazprom, one of the most corrupt state-owned energy companies in the world, and a major source of Putin’s power. Gazprom’s profits have given the Russian dictator the ability to develop a new generation of hypersonic missiles which can carry nuclear warheads.  

Why Russia's Hypersonic Missiles Can't Be Seen on Radar

 

Putin’s message to the world’s authoritarian leaders  

Great Britain, the United States and other Western countries should launch a comprehensive investigation to uncover and seize the assets of Putin’s Oligarch allies.  Removing the Oligarchs’ funds will drive at least one major spike into Putin’s coffin. The Oligarchs are all dependent on Putin. If they see that their continued relationship with him will lead to their financial ruin, they may be those who flee Russia, undermining his ability to sustain his reckless and destructive policies. 

Russia's "Londongrad" Oligarchs

Putin’s attack on Ukraine and the removal of its democratically elected government will send a dangerous message to other tyrants around the world. Not surprisingly, given Russian military  and financial aid, one of the few countries which has supported Putin’s actions in Ukraine is Syrian dictator Bashar al-Asad, whose policies have reached the level of genocide, given the number of his citizens he has tortured and killed.  

In the wings, stands China, which has refused to condemn Putin’s invasion. For China, any weakness projected by the democracies of the world will be seen as an invitation to follow through on its threat to militarily seize another democracy, Taiwan.  In the MENA region, it will encourage dictators like Egyptian president, ‘Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi, to continue to brutally repress any dissent of his autocratic regime.  Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, will likewise feel that the co-called Islamic Republic has free rein to continue engaging in terrorist behavior in the Middle East.   

 

The need for complete isolation of the Putin regime   

If the international democratic community is serious in its commitment to international law and a stable global order, it must stop Putin in his tracks.  The only way to do that is to cut Russia off from exporting its oil and natural gas. This will impose severe costs on the West.  But to do nothing apart from imposing weak sanctions, the Ukraine crisis will only grow larger as Putin continues to pursue his fantasy of rebuilding the Soviet Union.

The US and Europe can strongly pressure its supposed allies in Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf to dramatically increase their output of oil. The US' strategic reserve can be sued to increase the amount of oil available to the American economy. Gasoline taxes can be temporarily lifted in the United States and Europe. Western governments can subsidize oil prices for the near term and pressure energy companies to contain price rises of oil and natural gas.

Anything less than the maximum effort to cripple the Russian economy will lead to a major defeat for Ukraine, the overthrow of its democratic government, the destruction of its cities and economic infrastructure, and a global defeat for democracy. Are the United States and its Western allies up to the task to prevent this all from happening?