The Middle East and the Globalization of the Ukraine War

How has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affected the Middle East?  There have been many attempts to address this issue.  However, several key issues still need to be examined.  What are these issues and why are they significant?  How do they reflect on the tendency of local wars to become globalized, namely to affect regions far beyond the conflict arena?

Food shortages, poverty and authoritarian rule 

It’s already become clear that the Ukraine War has led to a spike in food prices as Russian and Ukrainian exports of corn, barley, sunflowers (for cooking oil), and especially wheat, have been dramatically curtailed.  Even if hostilities were halted soon, the 2022 agricultural  season has been irreparably damaged.  

 

With many MENA region countries dependent on wheat and other products from Ukraine and Russia, as well as Belarus, which is an important exporter of fertilizer, predictions are that severe food shortages will affect both the MENA region and the African continent.  Starvation may even result in a number of countries. Regarding wheat, the most important crop, other countries such as the United States, Brazil and Argentina will not be able to make up the shortfall caused by the Ukraine war. 

 

To take Egypt as an example, 85% of its wheat is imported. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, inflation was growing, and food prices were on the rise.  In 2016, Egypt received a large $12 billion IMF loan, which was intended to diversify the economy and address poverty, with afflicts a third of the country. 

Mideast Feels Pinch of Rising Food Prices as Ramadan Nears

 

Instead, President ‘Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi’s regime used the IMF loan for other purposes.  Funds were invested in real estate development and to construct a lavish new Egyptian in the desert outside Cairo.   Clearly, al-Sisi was more interested in meeting his personal interests and those of the Egyptian political elite, than the needs of the populace at large.  Understandably, there has been rising discontent at the inability of the regime to address rising prices which have skyrocketed just before the onset of the month of Ramadan. 

 

Not only will Putin’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine cause disadvantaged sectors of society throughout the Middle East, Africa and other countries of the Global South to suffer, but it will increase political instability.  As the Egyptian case suggests, rising food prices and the resulting food insecurity will intensify the focus on state corruption and the manner in which authoritarian regimes fulfill the interests of the small elites which support them while ignoring the needs of their citizenry. 

 

Increased opportunities for mercenaries 

Russian miscalculations of Ukrainian resistance have not only foiled its efforts to seize Ukraine’s major cities but have resulted in a very large casualties among its forces.  Indeed, Putin has been forced to move troops from eastern Russia and even from the breakaway Russian occupied regions of Georgia to come fight in Ukraine. 

Reports indicate that over 40,000 Syrians have volunteered to fight for Russia in Ukraine.  While one might think this reflects support for Russia and its goals in attacking Ukraine, interviews with Syrians going to fight in Ukraine indicate otherwise.  Those getting ready to fly to Russia indicate that they cannot support themselves and their families given Syria’s ravaged economy. With Russia willing to pay $7000 per month for those willing to serve on the frontlines, and $3500 for those willing to serve in ancillary military roles, the material needs of many males of combat age are such that they are drawn to taking up Putin’s offer, albeit reluctantly. 

Ukraine War: The Syrians Signing Up to Fight for Russia

 

With the MENA region facing droughts, water shortages and rising temperatures, resulting from the impact of the global Climate Emergency, we can expect instability in the region to increase, regardless of the Ukraine war, especially in those countries which lack significant resources, such as oil and natural gas.  As local economies, such as those of Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Yemen, Algeria and Lebanon, face ever greater challenges, autocrats like Putin will find a growing source of mercenaries ready to fight for whoever is willing to pay them salaries. 

 

Russia’s ability to exercise power in the MENA region 

What few analysts have speculated on thus far is the extent to which the sanctions to which Russia has been subjected will affect its global foreign policy. What will be the sanctions’ long term impact?  While the impact has yet to be fully felt, Russia will no doubt remain a pariah state long after the Ukraine war has ended, especially if Vladimir Putin retains power.  Will the myriad Western corporations which have shut down their operations in Russia be willing to return to the status quo ante after the war is over? 

When looking at Russia’s role in the MENA region, Syria immediately comes to mind. Will Russia have the economic wherewithal and the manpower needed to continue its active support of Bashar al-Asad’s regime in Syria?  The Syrian economy is on life support and al-Asad’s control of much of the country is tenuous at best.  In what ways could the Russian-Syrian alliance be a causality of what is increasingly an enormous blunder which Putin made in attacking Ukraine? 

 

Russia has committed to building a new nuclear reactor in Iran.  However, the rigorous sanctions which have been imposed by the West, Japan, South Korea, and other countries have severed Russia’s access to crucial technology, such as microchips.  There have been reports that Russia is having difficulty in servicing and repairing its energy industry’s infrastructure due to a lack of spare parts and other technical requirements. Under these circumstances, will Russia be able to exert political influence though development projects which it can no longer implement? 

 

Turkey’s relationship to Russia will certainly undergo change as well. There was great concern when Turkey concluded an agreement with Russia to purchase its S-400 missile system.  However, Putin’s miscalculation that the invasion of Ukraine would lead to a quick Russian victory and replacing the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy has lengthened the invasion far beyond Russia’s initial expectation. This delay in bringing Putin’s “Special military Operation” to a close has forced Turkey to close the Straits of the Bosporus and Dardanelles, preventing Russian access to the Black Sea, thereby impeding its ability to attack southern Ukrainian port cities. 

 

Perhaps more significant is the drones which Turkey has supplied to Ukraine’s military.  The Bayrakter TB2 is an inexpensive ($2 million each) and slow-moving drone.  However, it is simple to operate and has been responsible for large numbers of Russian casualties thus far in the Ukraine war.  Further, the drones have been key in providing the Ukrainian government with visual imagery of the large number of Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers which Ukraine has been able to destroy. 

Cheap but lethal Turkish drones bolster Ukraine’s defenses

Changing alliance structures in the Middle East 

Another area which requires more study is the impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have on local alliance structures.  Israel has been criticized for its tepid condemnation of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and its unwillingness to impose sanctions on Russia.  Israel has developed a tacit agreement with Russia that it can attack Hizballah units in Syria and Lebanon, as well as Iranian arms shipments to Syria, despite Russia’s support of the al-Asad regime.   

However, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has come under increasing criticism from within his own governing coalition, especially from Foreign Minister, Yair Lapid, and members of the US Congress. Will the Israeli-Russian tacit agreement over Syrian and Lebanon withstand the test of the Ukraine war, especially as Russia reduces Ukrainian cities to rubble, as it has already done with Mariupol? 

 

Finally, what impact has the war had on the MENA region’s core conflict, namely the struggle for regional hegemony between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies?  With the recent summit in Israel’s Negev Desert, which bought together the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco and Israel, will the anti-Iranian alliance become stronger?  Will Russia lose influence as it’s left to maneuver between the competing forces, namely Iran and the Arab-Israel alliance?     

 

If anti-Iranian forces feel empowered through Israel's support, and become more aggressive towards Iran, especially if its Houthi allies in Yemen continue to send drones to bomb Saudi and UAE targets, how will Putin respond?  Will Putin double down on Russia’s support for the Tehran regime, or will he moderate his support for Iran in hopes of retaining ties to Arab states, some of which have purchased Russian arms, such as Egypt, as well as Israel? 

A spread of terrorism? 

Little attention has been given to the possible spread of terrorism in the MENA region caused by rising food prices, an important driver of the Arab Spring uprisings.  With increased economic disruption, it is conceivable to envision Libya and Syria becoming venues for the spread of terrorist groups loyal to the Islamic State, and to seeing an increase of the Islamic State’s ongoing attacks in northern and north central Iraq.  

The World Changed on February 24, 2022: What Impact will Putin's War Have on the Middle East العالم تغير في 24 فبراير 2022: ما هو تأثير حرب بوتين على الشرق الأوسط؟

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy leading Ukraine's war against Putin's aggression

What impact’s is Vladimir Putin’s brutal attack on Ukraine having on the Middle East?  Many observers, both analysts and lay people, feel that, as long as NATO stays out of the conflict, the rest of the world need not worry about the war because no nuclear weapons will be used as a result.  However, we only need look at one region of the world, the Middle East, to realize that it’s naïve to think that the invasion of Ukraine’s impact will be limited to the two countries fighting the current war. 

First, there is the issue of food insecurity.  The MENA region and much of Africa is highly dependent on Russia and Ukraine which produce roughly 30% of the world’s wheat, a grain critical to the diet of millions of people and one that helps prevent starvation. 

In North Africa, Ukraine War Strains Economies Weakened by Pandemic  

 

Egypt, for example, has been having problems feeding its ever-growing population for many decades. Already food prices are high and the lack of wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine will only increase prices still further.  What is highly disturbing is that rising wheat process may lead to serious problems for the poor in Egypt and many other nations. 

Egypt: Bread Prices Soar Amid Effects of Crisis

 

Second, there is the increased tension between the major Arab oil producing countries in the MENA region, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and the US and European Union.  The West’s stringent sanctions regime has made it much harder for Russia to not only export its oil and natural gas but to sustain the financing of its energy industry given its inability to access foreign currency.  Investors always fears of the economic consequences war. The reduction of Russian oil and natural gas exports, however limited, still is forcing the price of oil and natural gas to skyrocket. 

 

In natural gas production, Qatar has stepped in willingly to try and meet rising global demand to offset cuts in Russian natural gas to Europe, whether as a result of sanctions or Putin’s decisions to reduce the flow.  However, both Saudi Arabia and, initially, the UAE have refused to increase production which they both could do quickly. 

 

What is especially disturbing is that leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE refused to take telephone calls from President Joe Biden.  Not only was this an insult to the US president, but it demonstrated how the US and the West can no longer depend on these two powerful oil-producing countries to sacrifice profits when it comes to global security. 

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls with Biden during Ukraine Crisis  

 

However, today we learned that the UAE has agreed to increase oil production outside the OPEC+ agreement with Russia. Putin shrewdly pushed this agreement prior to the invasion of Ukraine in an effort to prevent Saudi Arabia and the UAE – which have spare capacity (2 million barrels/day and one million barrels/per day respectively) – from filling the gap if Russian oil was sanctioned. 

Oil Prices Retreat as UAE Proposes OPEC Increase Oil Production at a Faster Pace

 

If Saudi Arabia, which indicated it was disturbed not to have been informed of the UAE decision before it was announced, thinks that partnering with Russia (and China) offers a better option than its traditional alliance with the United States and Europe, then Muhammad Bin Salman and the Saudi leadership are very foolish indeed.  Russia is led by an unpredictable leader, as his strategically disastrous miscalculation of the invasion of Ukraine demonstrates.   

China is a global economic power which is still constrained in its technological growth by a highly authoritarian and likewise unpredictable regime.  In nether Russia or China, does the rule of law exercise much influence.  Further, the Saudi and Arab Gulf economies are highly intertwined with American banks, investment firms and corporations. To jeopardize these ties makes no sense.  

 

A third area of impact is less visible but may play a greater role in the coming days and weeks.  There have been reports that Putin is trying to recruit Syrian fighters from Bashar al-Asad’s regime.  These fighters have been involved in urban warfare against radical Islamists in Syria.  Using foreign fighters like these could cut Russian troop losses which are already estimated to be 12,000 killed and over 30,000 wounded. In Putin's view, instead of having troops in body bags returned to Russia, have them go to Syria and other MENA region allies. 

Russia Recruiting Syrians for Urban Combat in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say

 

Other candidates for Putin’s recruitment strategy could be Iran, Iraq and Lebanon.  Iranian troops, who are part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), could join the mercenaries brought to the battlefield in Ukraine to augment Russian forces.  In Iraq, there has been a not inconsiderable public support for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine from militias (al-Hashad al-Sha^cbi) which support Iran.  Posters of Putin haven been seen in parts of Baghdad and elsewhere.  Finally, Lebanon’s Hizballah might also send forces to fight in Ukraine. 

Ukraine war highlights internal divides in Mideast nations 

 

Needless to say, fighters participating in Ukraine’s war with Russia will further contribute to political polarization and instability in the Middle East.  Because the fighters would be overwhelmingly Alawites or Shi^ca, this development would frighten Sunni Arab countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states. Their response would be to use sectarian rhetoric to prop up their social base in their respective countries. 

 

Fourth, there is the possible global impact of Russia’s inability to service its foreign debt. According to most projections, it will default on its foreign debt in April and beyond. The impact of Russia's default will be to frighten foreign investors, especially those with exposure to emerging market countries, such as Brazil, India, China and, in the Middle East, Egypt and Turkey, and withdraw their funding for projects in these countries. 

Russia's 'Imminent' Default would be Catastrophic. Here's Why

The lack of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which many emerging market countries have depended on, will only further erode their economic development.  Thus, we see that the international sanctions, historically the most stringent on a country the size of Russia, are not only directly affecting Putin’s regime, but having an economic impact far beyond the Ukraine war.   

 

Finally, there is the strong inventive which Putin’s invasion has sparked for European countries to switch their energy supplies from dependence on Russia. While natural gas will no doubt play a longer term role in Europe’s energy needs, the reduction of oil imports will speed up as governments ramp up building wind and solar energy farms and use financial incentives to foster their citizens to switch from combustion vehicles to electric cars. 

This means a decline in demand for oil from MENA region oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Libya and the Arab Gulf states. Because most analysts have believed that demand for oil wouldn't experience a serious decline before 2030, the huge mistake Putin made by invading Ukraine may actually be to speed up the transition to renewable sources of energy, thereby reducing revenues to Russia and Middle East oil producers. 

Why Putin's Invasion of Ukraine Cannot be Allowed to Stand

A Russian soldier killed in Putin's invasion - for what end?

Vladimir Putin continues his brutal and unprovoked attack on Ukraine. The Russian dictator has ordered an illegal, unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine, a democratic, sovereign nation, and United Nations member. There is no reason for the attack and it has been condemned by virtually every member nation of the UN as contravening international law.

Hundreds of Ukrainian civilians and members of its armed forces have already been killed, along with invading Russian troops. Russian saboteurs have infiltrated Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.  Their goal is to topple the government and kill Volodymyr Zelensky, the democratically elected president (who won his election with 73% of the national vote).  

Putin claims that his attack is to "de-Nazify" Ukraine, despite the fact that President Zelensky is Jewish, that members of his family died in the Holocaust, and that other family members joined the Red (Soviet) Army to fight the Nazis and died in that struggle .

President Zelensky has asked Putin to begin negotiations so the fighting can stop.  Putin's response was to ask Ukrainians to take up arms against their government who he referred to as " a group of drug addicts and neo-Nazis."  Although Putin continues to say he wants negotiations, his response to Zelensky was not that of someone who is serious about ending the current war peacefully.
Putin references neo-Nazis and drug addicts in bizarre speech to Russian security council

Putin's invasion is an attack on democracy and human rights, and threatens to destabilize Europe and the world beyond.  Already, wheat supplies from Ukraine, one of the world's largest exporters of wheat, have been disrupted, threatening food supplies to countries dependent on it. What is happening is the result of the ego of an aging Russian leader who has rehabilitated Josef Stalin, the Soviet dictator who is responsible for killing over 30 million Soviet citizens, and who seeks to resurrect the Soviet Union to cement his "legacy" as a "Great Russian Leader."

What have we learned thus far about Putin's war? 
When Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky proposed talks to end the war, Putin response demonstrated that only regime change and the destruction of Ukraine's democracy will end his vicious attack.  Having indicated that Ukraine has always been part of Russia, and that it has no legitimate status as an independent nation-state, it is clear Putin wants to incorporate Ukraine into the Russian Federation.   

This week Donald Trump called Putin a “savvy and smart guy” for launching his invasion of Ukraine to serve as a "peacekeeper.".  Meanwhile, China and India were among the handful of nations which have not condemned Russia’s attack and abstained in a UN Security Council resolution condemning the invasion.  Meanwhile, Italy said it would join the European Union in imposing sanctions on Russia, but they wouldn’t include “luxury goods,” such as Ferrari automobiles. Belgium said its sanctions wouldn’t apply to diamonds. 

Italy's luxury sector and Belgium's diamond leaders question effectiveness of Russian sanctions 

 

What do these comments and decisions tell us about the state of global democracy?  Two things. First, autocracy is on the move and democratic Western nations are doing little to stop it.  Autocratic government comes in “soft” and “hard” forms. It either manifests itself as populism or sham democracy, or as strong repression. The latter form includes the imprisonment and torture of anyone who expresses dissent with the reigning leader and political order.  We have seen this repression in the arrest and imprisonment of over a thousand Russians who have taken to the streets of Russian cities to protest the war. 

Second, money talks. Profits, the currency of the neoliberal realm, increasingly trump democratic values.  In this framing of society, all citizens are engaged in an implicit “war of all against all,” not in the Hobbesian state of nature sense of the term, but in their goal-oriented behavior in liberal democratic societies. Status is defined by wealth. Building political community and civic engagement are relics of the past.  Individual advancement, whether it adversely affects society or not, is what the young are being taught to value by their elders. 

 

Current sanctions are not enough 

Despite President Biden’s assertion that the US and its European Union allies have imposed the toughest sanctions ever deployed on the Putin regime and Russia, they are insufficient.  It is understandable that the West seeks to avoid a military confrontation with Putin.  However, the US and the West have come up seriously short in the sanctions regime they have applied thus far.  Placing sanctions on Russia’s oil and natural gas exports, breaking diplomatic relations with Putin's regime, and refusing to issue any visas to Russians seeking to travel to the West are necessary if the sanctions are to have any immediate impact.    

 

Above all, sanctions must include uncovering the stashes of the illicit gains of the Russian Oligarchs who benefit from and support Putin if the sanctions are to really bite.  Putin's Oligarchs own mansions, yachts, and football clubs in Western countries and have money deposited in Western banks and invested in Western corporations.  Their ill-gotten wealth is, in fact, constantly being laundered through Western countries. 

 

The Oligarchs’ influence is especially strong in the United Kingdom. Their families often maintain permanent residence in London and elsewhere, obtain education in elite schools and universities, and vacation there as well. Many Oligarchs have made significant contributions to Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party in an effort to deflect any inquiry into the status of the funds they bring to the United Kingdom. 

Exclusive: 623 new ‘British’ companies are actually controlled from Russia 

 

As Paul Krugman and others have noted, Europe unwisely tethered its energy needs to Russian supplies of oil and natural gas. The resultant dependence on Russian energy has led Putin to believe that any political behavior in which he engages, no matter how destructive and beyond the parameters of international law, will not engender a Western response. 

Laundered Money Could Be Putin’s Achilles’ Heel

 

It is to Chancellor Olaf Scholtz’s credit that, immediately after Russia attacked Ukraine, he stopped the process of approving the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.  However, Scholtz’s courageous act, which will increase still further the already high prices Germans pay for natural gas, stands in sharp contrast to the behavior of former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.  

How to Stop Former Western Leaders From Becoming Paid Shills for Autocrats

Despite serving as the former leader of Germany’s august Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has stood for social justice since its founding in the late 19^th century, Schroeder recently accepted a position on the Board of Directors of Russia’s Gazprom, one of the most corrupt state-owned energy companies in the world, and a major source of Putin’s power. Gazprom’s profits have given the Russian dictator the ability to develop a new generation of hypersonic missiles which can carry nuclear warheads.  

Why Russia's Hypersonic Missiles Can't Be Seen on Radar

 

Putin’s message to the world’s authoritarian leaders  

Great Britain, the United States and other Western countries should launch a comprehensive investigation to uncover and seize the assets of Putin’s Oligarch allies.  Removing the Oligarchs’ funds will drive at least one major spike into Putin’s coffin. The Oligarchs are all dependent on Putin. If they see that their continued relationship with him will lead to their financial ruin, they may be those who flee Russia, undermining his ability to sustain his reckless and destructive policies. 

Russia's "Londongrad" Oligarchs

Putin’s attack on Ukraine and the removal of its democratically elected government will send a dangerous message to other tyrants around the world. Not surprisingly, given Russian military  and financial aid, one of the few countries which has supported Putin’s actions in Ukraine is Syrian dictator Bashar al-Asad, whose policies have reached the level of genocide, given the number of his citizens he has tortured and killed.  

In the wings, stands China, which has refused to condemn Putin’s invasion. For China, any weakness projected by the democracies of the world will be seen as an invitation to follow through on its threat to militarily seize another democracy, Taiwan.  In the MENA region, it will encourage dictators like Egyptian president, ‘Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi, to continue to brutally repress any dissent of his autocratic regime.  Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, will likewise feel that the co-called Islamic Republic has free rein to continue engaging in terrorist behavior in the Middle East.   

 

The need for complete isolation of the Putin regime   

If the international democratic community is serious in its commitment to international law and a stable global order, it must stop Putin in his tracks.  The only way to do that is to cut Russia off from exporting its oil and natural gas. This will impose severe costs on the West.  But to do nothing apart from imposing weak sanctions, the Ukraine crisis will only grow larger as Putin continues to pursue his fantasy of rebuilding the Soviet Union.

The US and Europe can strongly pressure its supposed allies in Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf to dramatically increase their output of oil. The US' strategic reserve can be sued to increase the amount of oil available to the American economy. Gasoline taxes can be temporarily lifted in the United States and Europe. Western governments can subsidize oil prices for the near term and pressure energy companies to contain price rises of oil and natural gas.

Anything less than the maximum effort to cripple the Russian economy will lead to a major defeat for Ukraine, the overthrow of its democratic government, the destruction of its cities and economic infrastructure, and a global defeat for democracy. Are the United States and its Western allies up to the task to prevent this all from happening? 

Democracy, Terrorism and the Climate Emergency in the Middle East

Iraqi farmers survey their parched land

Most analysis of the contemporary Middle East has focused on the instability in the region.  Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons, the civil war in Yemen, the resurgence of the Islamic State in northeastern Syria and Iraq, and the persistent authoritarianism and corruption which characterized most MENA region regimes has dominated attention.  However, why is there no discussion of the climate crisis facing the region – the proverbial “gorilla in the room”? 

What are the consequences of climate change which have already impacted the MENA region? How will the region be affected by the persistence of corrupt and authoritarian rule? How will the climate emergency affect the ability of terrorist groups like the Da'ish to expand their power and influence in the MENA region?

Rising temperatures 

Some of the most dramatic developments will be the inability of the peoples of the Middle East to inhabit or travel in certain areas of the region. Mecca is a case in point.  By the end of the century, temperatures will be so high that the hajj will no longer be possible.  In the Gulf region, temperatures will exceed 60 degrees Celsius by mid-century preventing residents from going outdoors during the afternoon given lethal heat 

 

Droughts and water shortages 

As droughts continue in the MENA region, water shortages are increasing.  In Iraq, the Tigris and Euphrates rivers have experienced serious declines in water.  In Iraq, it is estimated that 30 million people are threatened by the water crisis.  Already, many crops in Iraq have not been harvested because the drought has been accompanied by he intensification of rising temperatures.  In short, much agriculture in Iraq and other parts of the region may no longer be viable, unless new methods of cultivation are developed. 

 

Over the past two decades, Iraq has lost 50% of its agricultural capacity die to salinization which has contaminated arable land.  Little effort has been devoted to swayer management and training farmers in skills to conserve and more effectively utilize water for irrigation. Extensive state corruption and the hiring of unqualified bureaucrats in many ministries has hampered efforts to enact new agricultural and environmental policies. 

Iraq’s climate conundrum: Oil reliance versus vanishing water

 

The provinces of Basra, Dhi Qar and Maysan have seen a 90% decline in population as residents have left the region due to the degradation of agriculture resulting from water shortages and declining quality of water.  As farmers have migrated out of the region, there are less farmers left to cultivate the land resulting in less food production. 

 

Iraq’s southern port city, al-Basra, which faces a severe environmental crisis, provides one of many examples of the access to water.  The Shatt al-‘Arab River, which is the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, 120 miles north of al-Basra, is polluted and thus cannot provide drinking water to the city. This pollution isn’t new but rather extends back to the 1991 Gulf War when numerous ships were sunk in the Shatt al-‘Arab. 

 

At the same time, the decreased water flow of the Tigris and Euphrates has facilitated salt water from the Persian Gulf moving up the Shatt al-‘Arab, further impeding use of the river’s water to meet the city’s needs.  The water table in the area around the city has sunk and the chemical contamination index is 100%.  To the degree that well water is available it is unsafe to drink or even use for bathing.    

 

Egypt’s water shortages have reached a level which has been designated as facing “water scarcity.”  However, access to adequate water in Egypt has now brought the country close to “absolute water scarcity.”  Egypt derives 90% of its water from areas beyond its borders and 95% from the Nile River.  Thus, Egypt is one of the most water dependent countries on the planet. 

 

At the moment, Egypt is facing a challenge from Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which is meant to increase the country’s electricity supply through the hydropower produced by the dam.  For Egypt, however, the dam is viewed as potentially an existential threat.   

With the Mediterranean Sea’s rising waters, which are pushing into the Nile River 2 tributaries which enter the sea, and contaminating arable land with salt, any decline in the Nile’s flow would further exacerbate these problems.  Only 3% of Egypt’s land is arable, while 30% of its population depend on agriculture.  Severe water shortages would have a devastating effect on the country.  It is ironic that the 2 MENA region countries – Iraq and Egypt - where world civilization began are facing the possibility that their agricultural sectors could, by 2050, collapse 

Dual Threat: Water Scarcity and Rising Sea Levels in Egypt.  

 

Negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia have not led to a resolution of the dispute.  Egypt has called upon Ethiopia not to fill the lake behind the dam but, despite American and foreign assistance with negotiations, Ethiopia has so far refused Egypt’s demand, producing a threat of military intervention by Egypt.  With Ethiopia preoccupied with a grinding civil war, the government of Prime Minister Abi Ahmed lie with that conflict, not with reaching an accord on the Nile water flow with Egypt.  

 

Civil strife 

Already, we have seen another serious of the impact of the climate crisis which is an increase in civil strife.  Many Westerners and even Arabs believe that the Syrian civil war was based in radical Islamism.  The actual cause was the impact of a serious drought along the upper Euphrates River which forced the residents of 175 villages to leave them because they lacked enough water to sustain themselves.  As these Syrians moved westward seeking access to government services in large urban areas, that assistance wasn’t forthcoming.

Demonstrations ensued, which morphed into calls for democratic change in Syria, which led to a brutal crackdown by the al-Asad regime.  Once the demonstrations spread to other areas of the country, Bashar al-Asad released imprisoned terrorists in an effort to change the narrative of the opposition to his regime from demands for democratic change, to one based on radical Islamist terrorism versus the continued power of a secular nationalist regime. 

 

The climate crisis along the Euphrates River which caused the population to leave eastern Syria and laid the groundwork of the horrific civil war which subsequently ensued.  Half of Syria’s population has been displaced by the civil war.  Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have been killed and thousands have become refugees, either moving to Lebanon or other Arab countries, or trying to migrate to Europe and other Western countries.    

Iranian farmers and supporters protest water scarcity Isfahan

The Syrian civil war isn’t an isolated phenomenon.  There are many other sources of MENA region civil strife caused by the intensification of the climate crisis.  In Iran, 97% of the population suffers from water shortages. The diverting of water by the Iranian regime from Khuzestan Province in the southeast, which is inhabited by ethnic Arabs, to farmers of Persian ethnicity in Iran’s central plateau, led to widespread demonstrations in July 2021. Farmers in Khuzestan were deeply angered by being deprived of their traditional sources of water. Several demonstrators were killed by security forces. 

Violence Escalates in Water-Shortage Protests in Iran's Khuzestan

 

In Isfahan, farmers, supported by tens of thousands of supporters, protested the dry bed of the city’s Zayanderound River.  Instead of water being allowed in the riverbed, it has been diverted though underground pipes to provide the residents of the Shi’a religious city of Qum and industrial complexes in Yazd Province.  After allowing the demonstration for a few days, the Tehran regime finally cracked down on the protesting farmers who were forced to disperse. 

Iran Forcefully Clamps Down on Protests Against Growing Water Shortage

It is interesting to note that references were made in the report of the Khuzestan demonstrations that “water mafias” had been involved in stealing water from its sources, thus depriving citizens of it.  In other words, as the water crisis in the Middle East grows, we can expect criminal elements to try and benefit from shortages for their material gain.  Thus, the climate crisis will further undermine the region’s stability.   

 

Solutions 

Despite an abundance of sun, and large amounts of vacant land, MENA region countries have yet to mobilize the power of the sun.  One of the few countries which has developed solar energy is Morocco which has the distinction of having built the world’s largest solar power complex in Quarzazate. Four solar power plants produce electricity fo 1;3 million people in an area of 3000 hectares, larger than the city of Paris, in the desert.  

 

Solar panels line the Atlas Mountains facing south where large tubes of synthetic oil heated turbines during the daytime hours. The panels adjust their direction throughout the day to obtain the maximum benefit from the sun’s energy.  Recently, Morocco has used molten salt which it heats in tubes next to the solar panels.  The saltwater is heated to such a temperature that it continues to provide solar energy for 3 hours after the sun has set. 

KFW - Renewable energy: Solar power from the desert

 

Morocco’s incentive to develop solar power is its lack of fossil fuels.  To avoid the possibility of rising oil and natural gas prices, it seeks to reach a 52% threshold of renewable energy by 2030.  Its plans include a goal of developing an excess of solar energy so that it will be able to export some of it to Europe. 

https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/morocco-solar-farm-power-big-as-paris/ 

 

Egypt recently decided to open bids on a huge area of land in the south near the border with Sudan.  This solar plant is intended to be the largest in the MENA region.  Will this plant be constructed in a timely and financially sound manner? The Egyptian military controls 30-40% of Egypt’s budget and may interfere in the project.  In 2011, when a group of youth tried to form Karm Solar – a solar energy firm – the military denied the fledgling company access to the national electric grid.  Karm Solar is now a profitable company but, among the corrupt members of elite, profits always trump civic nationalism. 

www.karmsolar.com  

 

In an effort to tackle its chronic electricity shortage problem and reduce dependence on Iran for electrical energy, Iraq has likewise commissioned the development of solar power plants. In March 2021, Iraq contracted with TotalEnergies for a 1 GW solar power plant, and in August 2021, it signed an agreement with PowerChina, which is state-owned and located in Dubai, to develop 2 solar power plants. In October 2021, it signed a contract for 5 plants with the UAE, which are to be built in Dhi Qar Province in the south, in Ramadi in central Iraq, in Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, and in Amara in 

the country’s southeast.  

Iraq, UAE Contract to Build 5 Solar Power Stations

 

Regional Water Authorities 

An important step in confronting MENA region water shortages would be to establish regional water authority commissions.  In light of the problems mentioned above, one such authority could include Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria.  All 4 countries riverine systems are interdependent, i.e., the Tigris, Euphrates, and Zab rivers and their tributaries. 

 

One of the main problems for water has been the focus on national water priorities.  While this may have made sense 50 years ago, it no longer is a viable strategy.  Turkey is in the strongest negotiating position since it controls the headquarters of the Euphrates River where it has constructed several dams.  These dams have deprived Syria and Iraq of needed water for agricultural irrigation.  Likewise,Iran has constructed dams on the Zab which delivers water to Iraq, diminishing water flows into the Tigris River. 

Cheekha Dar (Kurdish: Black Tent) - Iraq's highest mountain

Iraq possesses a mountainous terrain in the KRG where snow accumulates during the winter months.  Iraqi Kurdistan – the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) – controls an important source of water in terms of runoff from the Zagros and Qandil mountain ranges.  If runoff from the mountains could be captured in larger quantities, Iraq could use that water for mother parts of the country and even offer Turkey water to compensate for what it would lose should it be willing to release water from its dams on the Euphrates. 

Iraq's Highest Mountains

Iran could likewise benefit from this water policy.  If it obtained more water from the Zagros range, it too could use this resource for its agriculture and feel less pressure to dam the Zab and its tributaries, thus having a less adverse effect on the Tigris. 

https://vimeo.com/401658148  

 

Democracy and terrorism 

Many suggestions can be made as to how the Middle East region should confront the region’s growing climate emergency.  However, the persistence of corrupt authoritarian regimes in the region has worked to impede needed reforms, much less bold innovative policies.  Thus, democracy promotion in the MENA region is not just a choice, bit a necessity.  Corrupt rulers are concerned about their pocketbooks, not their citizens’’ well-being. 

 

Movements like the October Revolution (Thawrat Tishreen) in Iraq, and the youth movements in Iraqi Kurdistan (the KRG), the Sudan, Algeria and Lebanon require more international support. Only through removing corrupt ruling elites, can the MENA region move forward in diversifying its oil economies, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy, such as Morocco is doing, and develop strategies to assure water and food security. 

 

The Middle East’s failure to democratize promises not just climate-induced catastrophes but fertile ground for terrorist organizations, such as the Islamic State (Da’ish) and al-Qa’ida to reemerge as major threats to the region.  The most immediate impact of the climate emergency has been the migration of peoples who are adversely affected by it, the Syrian civil war being just one example.  The climate crisis in Darfur, with struggle over shrinking agricultural land, is another case in point, especially since former Sudanese president, Omar al-Bashir, exploited the divisions among local tribes for his personal benefit.

It is critical that the Biden administration, the European Union and the United Nations put more pressure on regimes in the MENA region, such as the al-Sisi regime in Egypt, the MBS regime in Saudi Arabia, and the Erdogan regime in Turkey, to end their repressive policies.  At the end of the day, the Climate Emergency will spare no country in the Global North or Global South.