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| Syrians celebrating the downfall of Bashar al-Asad's regime |
The Middle East never fails to surprise. The despotic al-Asad regime's fall is no exception. No one would have predicted in late November that the regime was about to be toppled, and then in little more than a week. Now that Bashar al-Asad and the sclerotic regime he ruled is gone, what is Syria's future? How will the fall of the ancien regime's fall affect the larger Middle East and beyond? What role should the US play in a post-Asad Syria?
Above all, the central question is whether the new regime, dominated by the Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS), will be able to rule a country which has experienced 13 years of a devastating civil war. Statements made by HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara' (nom de guerre, Abu Muhammad al-Julani) have emphasized that the new order is not based on radical Islamism to which HTS once adhered. Ideology, he says, is one thing, ruling a multi-ethnic and multi-confessional state is another. If symbols matter, al-Shara' has already shed his military uniform for a suit and tie.
al-Shara' has sought to reassure Syria's minority populations, especially Christians, Alawites and Druze, that they have nothing to fear from the new regime and that their traditions and religious practices will be respected. HTS' relation to Syria's Kurdish population is less clear. Its military, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), control one-third of the northeastern portion of the country.
The threat posed by the Islamic State The new Syrian regime lacks adequate human resources to rule the entire country. This means that a power vacuum has opened in different parts of the country. There is a reason why, shortly after Bashar al-Asad was deposed, the United States bombed Islamic State camps in central and eastern Syria. The US' messaged the IS that it would not tolerate the change in regimes. The return of the IS' "caliphate" could plunge Syria back into a new protracted conflict.
Most importantly for the Syrian people's sake, it is critical that the Islamic State not be allowed to capture territory that it once controlled after Syria's Arab Spring uprisings. But this concern with the reestablishment of the Islamic State also has regional and international implications. Should the Islamic State reconstitute itself, it would present a threat not only to Syria but to Iraq, Jordan and other parts of the Arab world as well.
Currenetly, there are 60,000 Islamic State fighters and their families being held in prisons in Eastern Syria, mostly in al-Hawl (al-Hol) Camp and the al-Hasakah Prison. Since the IS' defeat in August 2019, these prisoneres have been guarded by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who struggle to keep order inside the detention centers, particular the large al-Hawl Camp. Few countries have agreed to repatriate their imprisoned citizens leaving the Rojava Kurds to deal with the problem. CENTCOM Commander General Michael Kurilla says ISIS Detainees are "an army in waiting"
The Future of the Rojava Kurds Syria's Kurdish population in the north and northeast of the country was horribly mistreated by the al-Asad regime, both Hafez al-Asad (1973-2000), and then his son Bashar. The Ba'thist regiem in Damascus considered the Kurds non-Syrian and refused them citizenship and landownership rights. Under the Asad regime, Kurds could lose their land at any time and be imprisoned without cause.
The Arab Spring uprisings, which began in Syria in 2011, allowed the Rojava (Western) Kurds to break away from Damascus' control; and establish a quasi-state in 3 non-contiguous areas along the Turkish border in the north and northeastern parts of the country. The Kurds, in cooperation with Arabs, established the Autonomous Administration in North and North East Syria (ANEES) in 2012.
When United States, Iraqi and Iranian forces began their assault on the Islamic State, the SDF's military arm, the YPG (People's Protection Unit), which includes male and female units, played an essential role in helping to fight and later defeat the Islamic State. The YPG was able to prevent the Islamic State from seizing the city of Kobane on the Northern border with Turkey after a 9 month battle in 2015. Their forces rolled into Raqqa, the Islamic States's capital, which they seized in 2017.The People’s Protection Units’ Branding Problem Syrian Kurds and Potential Destabilization in Northeastern Syria
Why do the Rojava Kurds need international protection? The reasons are domestic, regional and international. Most importantly, the Kurds have been critical in preventing the return of the Islamic State. Should they lose International support, particularly from the United States which maintains a force of almost 2000 troops in Eastern Syria, the SDF would have difficulty containing a resurgent Islamic State.
When the Islamic State began to expand its grip on large areas of east and central Syria, the SDF, working with American and Iraqi forces, played a key role in the ultimate collapsed of the Islamic State's so-called Caliphate in March 2019. The ability of the SDF and allied forces, such as its female militia the YPJ, earned the AANES the gratitude of all ethnic and confessional groups in eastern and northern Syria for ridding the region of Islamic State terrorists.
Erdogan, HTS and the Islamic State The two villains in Syria's ongoing political crisis have been Bashar al-Asad and President Recip Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. Bashar al-Asad ruled a tyrannical regime. His war on the Syrian people led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands and the displacement of half the country's population. His prisons, such as the notorious Saydnaya prison in Damascus, were known as slaughterhouses where tens of thousands of prisoners died under horrible conditions, including the widespread use of torture.
But Bashar is finished having fled Syria on December 8th for Russia where he was granted political asylum. The key leader standing in the way of a potentially positive transition to a more tolerant and even democratic country is Turkiye's Recip Tayyip Erdogan. Turkiye's president is determined to destroy the experiment in rule that the Kurds and other ethnic groups enjoy in the AANES.
Erdogan's attitude towards Islamist extremists has been highly equivocal. As an example, during the 9 month siege of Kobane, Turkish troops stood by with their tanks overlooking the town from the Turkish side of the border while hundreds of SDF fighters were wounded and died repulsing continued Islamic State assaults. Had the Turkish army intervened on the side of the SDF, the IS would have been quickly defeated.
Because Erdogan has been a strong backer of HTS, and funded Syrian militias, such as the Syrian National Army whose name belies its complete control by Turkiye's armed forces. Erdogan has threatened on numerous occasions that he will invade northeastern Syria if the SDF do not lay down their arms. Speaking to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdogan said on December 24th that: “The separatist murderers will either bid farewell to their weapons, or they will be buried in Syrian lands along with their weapons.” Erdogan says YPG ‘will be buried’ in Syria if it doesn’t lay down arms
The US role in post-Asad Syria. The US is central to preventing a reconstituted Islamic State from gaining power again in post-Asad Syria. Not only is the US the most important military force in Eastern Syria, but it has the backing of NATO and the European Union in containing the Islamic State. If the new Syrian regime wants to be internationally recognized and receive the desperately needed foreign aid to rebuild the Syrian state, it will depend in this process on the US and the West.
The US maintains a force of roughly 2000 troops in Eastern Syria. It should make clear to the new regime in Damascus that it has no desire to permanently station troops in Syria. Because the HTS has fought the Islamic State in the area it controlled surrounding the city of Idlib in northern Syria, it is committed to eliminating the IS as is the US and its Western and Arab allies, Iraq and Jordan.
Working together with the new regime to defeat the IS would serve to create new ties and trust between the US and the HTS. A relationship of trust will be crucial if the US is to wean the new regime away from its traditional dependence on Turkiye. Erdogan will use every tool he has to use the HTS to undermine the AANES and the SDF in Eastern Turkey.
Beyond establishing a working relation ship with Ahmad Sahara' and the HTS regime, the Us must make clear to Erdogan that it will not tolerate a Turkish military incursion into northeastern Syria. If the SDF was attacked by Turkish forces and many of its fighters killed or wounded, that would constitute a sever setback in the effort to prevent the Islamic State from using the resulting power vacuum to reestablish bases in central and Eastern Syria.
Donald Trump has indicated that he "wants nothing to do" with the current political upheaval in Syria. Fortunately, both Senator Marco Rubio, Secretary of State designate, and former congressman Michael Waltz, National Security Advisor designate, both understand the danger that the Islamic State still poses.
Their job should be to convince Trump that withdrawing US forces from Syria would have grave consequences for Syria and the larger MENA region. It would send a message to Islamic State terrorists in Iraq that they would now enjoy greater latitude of action in north central Iraq as well as in Syria. Trump must be informed that use of airpower again the IS is no substitute for American boots on the ground.
Even before it assumes office, Donald Trump is learning that isolationism is not a viable policy when it comes to dealing with terrorism. The Islamic State continues to mount attacks in in Syria and Iraq and has large sums of money hidden away to use to purchase arms and compensate its fighters. The IS-inspired attack on New Orleans in the early morning hours of New Year's Day underscores how its global reach still threatens countries around the world.
