Last Man Standing: What is the Fate of Iran's Proxy Militias in Iraq

al-Hashad al-Sha'bi fighters on parade

What is the future of Iran's proxy militias in Iraq? The militias - known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (al-Hashad al-Sha'bi) - have been wielding extensive political and economic power in Iraq ever since they played an important role, together with Iranian, US and Iraqi forces, in protecting Iraq  and defeating the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq between 2014 and 2019. 

Since HAMAS' surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, there has been a major shift in power relations in the Middle East. Following well over a year of Israeli air and ground attacks, the Gaza War seriously degraded HAMAS' military strength. Hizballah, once the most powerful political and military force in Lebanon, is a shell of its former self.  Syria, formerly Iran's closest Arab ally, is no longer ruled by the al-Asad family. 

With the fall of the al-Asad regime, Iran has lost a critical land bridge which allowed it to extend its political control to the Mediterranean.  The loss HAMAS, Hizballah and Syria has ended Iran's ability to surround its arch-enemy, Israel, with loyal forces. After Iran attacked Israel in May 2024, Israeli airstrikes subsequently degraded Iran's air defenses and seriously damaged its energy sector by destroying natural gas pipelines, creating a severe economic crisis.  

Only Iraq's Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) have avoided the negative consequences of. the Israel-HAMAS War.  While some militias have fired rockets at Israel, the PMUs have largely remained on the sidelines of the conflict. Most of their attention continues to be directed at forcing the United States to withdraw its last troops from Iraq through rocket attacks on Iraqi air bases where US troops are stationed. As the last member of Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance, what is its future?

The defeat of the Axis of Resistance With Israel's destruction of Iran's proxies in Gaza and Lebanon and indirectly causing the collapse of the al-Asad regime,.  As a result, the political winds in Iraq are beginning to change. Iraq's Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has stated that it's time for the PMUs to be integrated into the Iraqi Army, something that was supposed to happen several years ago. 

With the government aware that the PMUs' benefactor, Iran, faces serious economic crisis and has lost of much of its regional political clout, now is the time in the view of many of Iraq's political elite to reign in the Tehran regime's local agents. 

In November 2024, following a stark warning from Israel, stop the drone attacks. Fearful of suffering the same fate as HAMAS and Hizballah, the PMUs cut back on their drone attacks on Israel.  The Iraqi government, on the other hand, has tried, without success, to end PMU attacks on the United States Embassy in Baghdad and the airbase where US troops are stationed.

A state within a state  PMUs are despised by much of the Iraqi population.  They promote Iranian interests in Iraq such as the sale of Iranian goods which compete with Iraqi companies.  Militias have seized houses, agricultural land and businesses, and threatened families and lawyers who have attempted regain possession of their property.

In the Jurf al-Sakhr region along the Tigris River in Babel Governorate, the PMUs expelled the local farmers and establish a large limits area which they store illicit goods which are sold on the black market throughout Arab Iraq.  Even Iraq's Prime Minister and Armed Force Chief of Staff are forbidden from entering this area.  

In 2023, the PMUs won 101 of 285 seats in Iraq's Provincial Council elections. Using a carrot and stick, the PMUs used their extensive resources to offer voters jobs in construction and road paving industry, contracts to business interests, government employment to local residents and other bribes.  Candidates who opposed PMU candidates were threatened in an effort to force them to drop out of the elections.  The Leadership and Purpose of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces

Iraqis have responded to PMU corruption by boycotting Iranis goods which they see aas competing with Iraqi products. While Iraqis welcome the 1000s of Iranian pilgrims who visit Iraq's Shi'a shrine cities each year, they resent the PMUs using their politcial power to privilege Iranian products in local markets.

As an example of the kind of corruption in which the PMU is involved, a scandal was recently discovered in which the Islamic University of Lebanon in Beirut had awarded more than a 1000 PMU militia members doctoral degrees in engineering and other specialized degrees.  

The problem with these degrees is that those who received Ph.D.s never attended any classes at the Islamic University of Lebanon.  With 40% of Iraqis living below the poverty level and thousands of Iraqi youth who have graduates but haven't been able to find gainful employment, this type of corruption infuriates the Iraqi people. New Corruption on the Part of the Islamists: More than 1000 Doctorates for al-Hashad al-Sha'bi

Cracks in the PMU alliance The impact of the Gaza War and Iran's economic crisis has seriously undermined the PMUs power in Iraq.  Already three years ago, the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps informed the PMUs that they could no longer count on financial support from Iran given the poor state of its economy. 

With the colapse of the Axis of Resistance and weakened Iran, a schism has developed within the PMU ranks.  Efforts are underway to remove Falih Fayyadh, the PMU commander, from his post.  Qa'is al-Khazali, head of the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haqq militia, is using Fayydh's call for a more moderate posture on the PMUs part towards cooperating with the Iraqi government to accuse him of undermining the PMUs' mission.  

US foreign policy in Iraq and Syria What should the Trump administration do to undermine the last militia movement in the so-called Axis of Resistance? First, Trump must abandon the lens through which he views American foreign policy. There is no "deal" to be made in Iraq. Unlike Iram there are no sanctions or tariffs which can be levied on Iraq to rid it of the PMUs.

Second, if Trump wants to eventually eliminate the threat Iran's proxy militias pose to American interests in the Middle East and the region's security, he must maintain current troop levels in Iraq and Syria.  If he withdraws these troops, it will be "penny wise and pound foolish."  Without US forces to support our closest ally in the MENA region, the Syrian Democratic Forces, Islamic State terrorist cells will be able to reestablish bases Eastern Syria.

Third, if the Islamic State establishes more bases in Syria, it will not only strengthen the its attempted comeback there, but facilitate the terrorists' ability to increase its already numerous attacks in North Central Iraq.  While it makes sense to support replacing some US troops  in Iraq with NATO forces, there is no substitute for the logistical and intelligence support the US can provide the Iraqi government.  

Current US forces in Iraq have a lengthy experience fighting the Islamic State terrorists  and training Iraq's counter-terrorism forces.  Should US forces be withdrawn from Iraq, Iran would claim a victory over the "Great Satan."

Equally important, US forces withdrawal from Iraq would encourage Islamic State fighters to increase their attacks in Iraq. They would view such a withdrawal as evidence of American weakness and lack of interest in defending Iraq.  

Precisely when the PMUs are weak isn't the time to strengthen their control of Iraqi politics and its economy.   We need remember that the PMUs achieved their original legitimacy not only from the fatwa Ayatollah 'Ali al-Sistani issued in 2014 justifying their creation, but from their success in preventing Islamic State forces from reaching Baghdad in 2014.With US forces no longer in Iraq, the PMUs can argue that they are needed once again to assure the Islamic State doesn't reestablish itself in Iraq. 

Needless to say, Trump's withdrawal of US forces in Iraq will have a domino effect.  It will also embolden the Islamic State in Syria placing greater pressure on our key ally, the Syrian Democratic Forces, which is a large prison camp and other prisons in Eastern Syria which hold over 60,000 Islamic State fighters and their families.

After the Gaza Ceasefire: A New "Trail of Tears" or a March Towards Peace?

The immediate question following the ceasefire in Gaza is whether it will hold. However, the larger question still remains: can Israel and Palestinians come to terms and establish a peaceful solution to the Forever War which has persisted since 1948? Can the elusive goal of a two state solution, where both sides live in peace and security, be realized? Beyond Historical Amnesia, Revenge and the Good-Evil Binary: Solving the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute Once and For All

Displaced Palestinians fleeing to Lebanon during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War

Israel and the Palestinians are at a critical juncture. Gaza can either be rebuilt with funds from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates and HAMAS replaced with a joint Palestinian National Authority and Arab states, e.g., Egypt and Jordan, . Or the territory can be seized by the Israeli far-right and the Gazan Palestinians be expelled for the second time in their lives (the first in 1948 when Palestinians along Israel's Mediterranean Coast were forced into the Gaza Strip, then controlled by Egypt).Causes of the 1948 Palestinian expulsion and flight

Unfortunately, HAMAS is still in control in the Gaza Strip which presents a major impediment to moving towards peace. The Arab League should establish an interim administration comprised of Jordan and Egypt.  The Jordanians and Egyptians should make clear to HAMAS that it needs to shed its weapons and then become one of several political parties in Gaza which will win or lose in fair and free elections. If HAMAS refuses, the Arab League should sponsor a military force dispatched to Gaza to remove its weapons and disarm it.

A new "Trail of Tears? The alternative to the scenario just described is the Israeli far-right's plan to either force or have Gazans "voluntarily" evacuate the Gaza Strip. The far right settlers would take control of it. This would constitute a latter day "Trail of Tears," as was implemented during the Andrew Jackson administration in 1830. Native American tribes were removed from their ancestral lands east of the Mississippi River and forced to move westward to government controlled reservations in regions, such as present-day Oklahoma, which were not yet states. 

The brutal HAMAS attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 upended Middle East politics.  Over 1200 Israelis were killed during the attack, and a wrenching hostage crisis ensued with 250 Israelis were seized by HAMAS and taken to Gaza (many of whom died while in captivity). Israeli survivors recount terror at music festival, where Hamas militants killed at least 260 

At least 47,000 Palestinians living in Gaza, mostly women and children, have been killed, although recent excavation of bodies from destroyed buildings will make that figure much higher. Over 80% of the Gaza Strip's buildings and infrastructure has been destroyed by Israel's bombing campaign.

What has the violence over the past 75 years accomplished? Perhaps we should answer this question by invoking the colloquial definition of insanity: "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result." When will more rational heads prevail to end the never ending cycle of violence?

The Gaza War's cost to Israel and the Palestinians Israel has secured its position as nation-state in the Middle East, but at great the cost. While it won all the Arab-Israeli wars, save for the 1956 tripartite invasion of Egypt, it has done less well in conflict with asymmetric forces.  

After invading Lebanon in 1982 to destroy the Palestine Liberation Organization bases in South Lebanon and its leadership in Beirut, Israel was forced to withdraw from the south in 2000 following repeated guerrilla attacks on its forces. The 2006 war with Hizballah ended in a draw. And HAMAS still controls the Gaza Strip following the ceasefire.

With the January 2025 Ceasefire in place, Israeli politics has entered a new phase. The far-right minister of national security, Itamar Ben Gvir, resigned in protest. Bezalel Smotrich, the Minister of Finance, also on the far-right, has threatened to resign as well if the ceasefire becomes permanent. It is unclear whether the Netanyahu government will continue its efforts priro to the HAMAS attack to strip Israel's Supreme Court of its power to declare laws passed by the Knesset (parliament) as unconstitutional.

Tensions have increased between religious and secular Israels as a result of the Gaza War.  The 2024 court order that Haredim (orthodox males who dedicate their lives to religious studies) must join the military provoked outrage among many orthodox rabbis and their followers. The Haredim, who receive state subsidies to conduct their religious studies, are not required to pay taxes and, until now, have been exempt from serving in the armed forces. Given their large families, they will constitute a majority of Israel's population by 2050.

Apart from the technology sector, Israel's economy has suffered a s result of the war.  A large percentage of the employed males, who are overwhelmingly secular and taxpayers, were called up to serve in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).  Economic growth has slowed and the government has faced severe budget constraints to fund the war and the Israelis displaced by the conflict with Hizballah in southern Lebanon along Israel's northern border.How Benjamin Netanyahu and the Extremist Far Right are Leading Israel Along a Path to Ruin

Perhaps most significant, and difficult to quantify, is Israel's loss of international support as a result of the ferocious bombing campaigning in Gaza. Those who have suffered most are not the HAMAS terrorists but innocent civilians. The international loss of legitimacy, especially in light of the Netanyahu government's failure to reign in West Bank settlers on the West Bank whose terrorist attacks have wounded and killed innocent Palestinians (more than 600 deaths as of this writing) and destroyed their property and crops. The war is in Gaza, but Palestinians in the West Bank are targeted with violence too 

Israel will find it difficult, if not impossible, to reestablish its international legitimacy in the short term.  That Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu, and former Defense Minster, Yoav Gallant, have been indicted on war crimes charges by the International Criminal Court in the Hague, further undermines Israel's credibility in prosecuting the war against HAMAS in the Gaza Strip.  

This image captures Gaza's destruction during the Israel-HAMAS war

 
The current status of Palestinians is dire. With over 80% of the Gaza Strip completely destroyed, most of the two and a half million residents lack homes, jobs, food, healthcare and security. In addition to the 47,000 plus Gazans who have been killed, many residents have lost limbs and youth have no access to education because all schools and universities have been destroyed. These maps and images show what's left of Gaza, 1 year into the Israel-Hamas war

In the West Bank , Palestinians have been subject to increasing violence from settler terrorists who destroy their houses (which subsequently aren't legally allowed to be rebuilt) and crops and even murder them. Over 600 West Bank Palestinians have lost their lives since the HAMAS October 2023 attack on Israel. Mapping 1,800 Israeli settler attacks in the West Bank since October 2023

The Palestine National Authority (PNA) is headed by an 89 year old autocrat, Mahmoud Abbas, who hasn't allowed elections to be held in the PNA's areas of control in the West Bank since 2013. President Abbas is extremely corrupt, diverting millions of dollars in funds designated for the Palestinian people to his sons, Yasser and Tariq. His current approval rating hovers at 13%.

The Gaza War presents the opportunity to remove Abbas from his illegally held office and create a new PNA leadership.  One name which has been proposed is Dr. Salam Fayyad, who served as Prime Minister from 2007 until 2013, but who was removed from office by Abbas because he wouldn't support the PNA president's corrupt behavior. Fayyad, who holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Texas at Austin, is highly respected among West Bank Palestinians and internationally.Salam Fayyad

The need to move quickly to rebuild Gaza Recently, President Donald Trump proposed that Gaza's Palestinian residents be relocated to Jordan and Egypt. His rationale for this proposal is that Gaza has been largely destroyed and thus it's best to "clean out the territory."  Unsurprisingly, this proposal has been universally rejected by all Arab countries.  However, with the Gaza Strip in ruin, the idea of removing its residents does possess some logic, however perverse. Trump says to ‘clean out’ Gaza, urges Arab countries to take more refugees

Thus, time is of the essence.  The longer the Gazan Palestinians remain without water, electricity and housing, the louder the chorus of those who want to remove them from their homes and land will become.

Here is where the "rubber meets the road."  If the Arab states, who have manipulated the Palestinian cause for decades to serve their own national interests, truly want to promote peace and a meaningful solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, they must put their money where their mouth is - walk the walk, not just talk the talk. 

Saudi leader Muhammad Bin Salman would do better using the $600 billion he has promised Donald Trump he will invest in the United States to rebuild Gaza instead. Qatar and the UAE should follow suit. Quick action by these wealthy Arab oil producers could have the critical impact of cutting off the Israeli far-right's attempt to seize yet more Palestinian land.Saudi Prince promises Donald Trump $600 billion trade, investment boost