Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant recently opined that "America First doesn't mean America Alone." In other words, the Trump administration isn't isolationist. What Bessant failed to mention is that US foreign policy has abandoned a system of shared values with our traditional allies designed to promote democracy and international economic growth.
Trumpian foreign policy is transactional, not value-based. Its guiding criterion when dealing with a foreign country or international agency is to ask: Will the United States directly benefit in some material way from the issue at hand? As many analysts have noted, this stance has upended 80 years of post-WWII US policy by viewing international relations strictly through a transactional lens.
When Donald Trump looks beyond America's shores, all that matters to him is deals, and especially deals that in some way add to his personal wealth. This approach to the world was on view in the deal the United States signed with Ukraine. In return for continued support for its war with Russia, Ukraine was required to sign away much of its rights to its rare earth and other precious minerals which are critical to electronics, clean energy technologies and military production.
Trump's dramatic revision of US foreign policy was also front and center during his recent trip to the Middle East where he visited Saudi Arabia and two Arab Gulf states, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Although the trip was officially billed as promoting US security interests in the MENA region, it was in fact meant to conclude a set of financial deals, many of which directly benefitted Trump and his family.
Why and how has United States foreign policy become commodified? Who benefits from Trump's foreign policy and who are the losers? Donald Trump's trip to the Middle East provides some key answers.
The big winners of the deals which were struck were the three richest Arab states - Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. All three contain enormous quantiles of fossil fuels, including natural gas in Qatar. In the UAE, Dubai has become one of the world's most powerful financial centers (including the ability of foreign monied interests to hide their wealth). All three states have enormous sovereign wealth funds. At a Dubai Conference, Trump’s Conflicts Take Center Stage
Having much to offer in the way of financial deals, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE are uniquely positioned to attract Trump's interest. In return for its investment in the United States, the UAE is set to become a major player in the development of Artificial Intelligence and cryptocurrency. Huge AI data centers will be constructed there, and also in Saudi Arabia, despite the region's extreme heat which will require these centers to consume enormous amounts of water to keep them running. Sam Altman, president of OpenAI, and Jensen Hwang, Nividia CEO, announced that their companies will support the development of these centers.
As Forbes noted: "Trump’s visit to the Middle East, so far, has centered around economic investments, rather than broader geopolitical strategy. The region is home to multiple new projects by Trump’s family businesses, including a Trump golf resort in Qatar and Trump residential towers in Dubai and Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. An investment fund backed by the United Arab Emirates, MGX, also used $2 billion in stablecoin issued by the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial to invest in Binance earlier this year." U.S. Will Build Massive AI Data Center In Abu Dhabi: See The List Of Deals Trump Announced In The Middle East
Iran itself has been severely weakened. Its ineffectual missile attacks on Israel in 2024 showed it to be a paper tiger, not a regional military power. Israeli counterattacks destroyed Tehran anti-missile defense system and severely damaged its natural gas infrastructure, cutting off electricity to homes and crippling industrial production. The Trump regime's threat to increase what are already onerous sanctions and attack Iran if it doesn't curtail its enrichment of uranium has forced it to come to the table and negotiate curtailing its nuclear weapons program.
All of this seemed to bode well for Benjamin Netanyahu once Trump returned to office. Trump's threat to turn Gaza into a "Mediterranean Riviera" after expelling the Palestinian population delighted him and his far-right cabinet ministers, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir Trump's "Mediterranean Riviera".
A changing policy towards Israel? But Netanyahu and the Israeli far-right has since discovered that Trump is not in their court. He increasingly sees Netanyahu as a "loser" (one of his favorite designations of those he dislikes or whose behavior he sees as failing). Netanyahu's far-right consiglieres' vision of a Greater Israel which would include not just the West Bank and Gaza but Greater Syria as well as Jordan doesn't interest Trump, if only for the reason that it offers no financial benefit to him. Suddenly Trump Is No Longer Buying What Bibi Has Been Selling
Recent decisions by Trump indicate a divergence between Netanyahu's goals and those of the United States. First, the Trump regime has backed away from the idea of expelling the Palestinian populace from Gaza and turning the strip into an international tourist destination. Trump himself has recently criticized Netanyahu for the uptick in bombings in Gaza which has resulted in ever large numbers of civilian deaths, now at more than 50,000, including one family which recently lost 9 of its 10 children, with the father and remaining child in critical condition Gaza doctor loses 9 children as Israel bears down on war amid growing pressure
In a direct slap to Netanyahu, Trump reached out to HAMAS, without consulting him, to free Edan Alexander, a dual Israeli-American who enlisted in the IDF and was subsequently captured by HAMAS. Alexander is the last hostage with American citizenship held by HAMAS. His release underlined the lack of attention which the Netanyahu regime has placed on freeing the remaining hostages HAMAS holds, an issue which is at the top of mind of the majority of Israelis. It didn't help Netanyahu's standing when Alexander refused to meet with him after HAMAS freed him. Large and Increasing Majority of Israelis Prioritize Bringing Hostages Home Over Toppling Hamas
Houthi attacks on shipping near the Bab al-Mandab, the entrance to the Red Sea, and in the southern Red Sea, led to intense US bombing of the militia's forces and missile launch sites. After two weeks of devastating damage, and many civilian casualties, the Houthis came to an agreement with the US. The Houthis would end their attacks on American ships in exchange for an end of the bombing campaign.
However, the bilateral negotiations between the Trump regime and the Houthis did not include Israel. The Houthis indicated that they retained the right to attack Israeli ships to which Trump seems not to have raised any objections. Once again.Netanyahu was excluded from American contact with an Iranian proxy.
Soon after Trump was sworn in, Netanyahu proposed an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Because such an attack could not proceed without American logistical support, Netanyahu required Trump's permission. However, Trump refused. Trump blocked Israeli-proposed joint attack on Iran to pursue nuclear deal — report
To add insult to injury, Trump subsequently proposed to Iran to that it enter talks to end its nuclear enrichment program which would eventually allow it to develop nuclear weapons. While he told Iran that failure to begin talks would result in a devastating American attack, Netanyahu, to his chagrin, was left out of the decision-making. Instead, Trump seeks to negotiate an end to the ongoing conflict with the Iran (which threatens his closest Arab allies, namely Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states in which he maintains important financial interests).
For Netanyahu, an attack on Iran would further shelter him from attacks that he is keeping the Gaza War going to placate his far-right ministers, Smotrich and Ben Gvir, without whose support he can't sustain his political coalition and remain prime minster. In his mind, attacking Iran would divert public opinion away from his efforts to eviscerate Israel's Supreme Court by stripping it of its right of constitutional review of laws passed by the Israeli Knesset as well as prevent his ongoing trial for corruption leading him to go to jail.
Perhaps most telling of all was Trump's recent trip to the Middle East. He visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates but avoided a stop in Israel. Indeed, Israel was hardly mentioned during the trip. Increasingly, it seems that Trump views Netanyahu as playing the United States. The Israeli leader continues to press ahead with a war which his military and intelligence chiefs say no longer has any strategic value.
Finally, Netanyahu's two month blockade of food and medical aid entering Gaza has led to severe criticism from some of Israel's closest allies, including the U.K. (which has frozen trade relations with Israel), France, Canada, and its staunchest European ally, Germany. It is noteworthy that Trump has not disavowed any of this criticism and has also called for a quick end to the war.
As a final comment, the negative impact the continued war in Gaza is having on the Israeli economy is often ignored. In its 2024 report on the war's impact on a critical sector of Israel's economy, the Israel Innovation Authority noted that the high tech sector has seen a significant drop in investment capital, the loss of profits due to 30,000 or 7% of high tech company employees called up for military service, the relocation of some companies' operations to Europe, and that the sector is no longer seen as a desirable partner by many foreign companies as a result of the decline in Israel's global standing, The War on Gaza and Israel’s Technology Sector
If Netanyahu had proposed cooperation with Israel's allies, especially Egypt and Jordan, which have powerful armies, and the UAE which has enormous financial resources, and agreed to begin talks on establishing a Palestinian state, administered by a revised (read non-corrupt) Palestinian National Authority, he could have rid Gaza of HAMAS forces (see my post: The Middle East is in Crisis: Where Are the Leaders?) and secured the release of Israeli hostages a long time ago. Because Qatar hosts and funds HAMAS' political leadership, it could have pressured the organization to agree to release the hostages.
Such actions by Netanyahu would have allowed Israel to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia and the new regime in Syria. It would have provided an huge economic windfall if Israel had been included in the many high tech projects recently agreed upon during Trump's visit to the Middle East.
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Arab League summit, Baghdad, Iraq, May 17, 2025 |
Ironically, Israel's defeat of Iran and its proxies and the toppling of the Asad regime has led to renewed inter-Arab cooperation. Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and the UAE are the core of s new economically focused alliance. Arab states which recently were at odds are now cooperating across boundaries on a host of new economic ventures. This new coalition is even bringing Lebanon into the fold now that Hizballah has lost its dominant role in Lebanese politics. Across Arab Mideast, a new alignment rises: An axis of cooperation
While Netanyahu and his messianic, far-right, ultra-nationalist regime pursue a fantasy which is eroding Israel's social cohesion, sharpening political cleavages and harming Israel's economy, the Arab world seems ready to put aside sectarianism, politicized religion and fantasies such as Pan-Arabism (and hopefully open more paths to democracy). No wonder Trump views the deals to be made residing in the Arab world, not in Israel.Tom Friedman on Why Life Is Getting Much, Much Harder for Benjamin Netanyahu