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| al-Hashad al-Sha'bi fighters on parade |
What is the future of Iran's proxy militias in Iraq? The militias - known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (al-Hashad al-Sha'bi) - have been wielding extensive political and economic power in Iraq ever since they played an important role, together with Iranian, US and Iraqi forces, in protecting Iraq and defeating the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq between 2014 and 2019.
Since HAMAS' surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, there has been a major shift in power relations in the Middle East. Following well over a year of Israeli air and ground attacks, the Gaza War seriously degraded HAMAS' military strength. Hizballah, once the most powerful political and military force in Lebanon, is a shell of its former self. Syria, formerly Iran's closest Arab ally, is no longer ruled by the al-Asad family.
With the fall of the al-Asad regime, Iran has lost a critical land bridge which allowed it to extend its political control to the Mediterranean. The loss HAMAS, Hizballah and Syria has ended Iran's ability to surround its arch-enemy, Israel, with loyal forces. After Iran attacked Israel in May 2024, Israeli airstrikes subsequently degraded Iran's air defenses and seriously damaged its energy sector by destroying natural gas pipelines, creating a severe economic crisis.
Only Iraq's Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) have avoided the negative consequences of. the Israel-HAMAS War. While some militias have fired rockets at Israel, the PMUs have largely remained on the sidelines of the conflict. Most of their attention continues to be directed at forcing the United States to withdraw its last troops from Iraq through rocket attacks on Iraqi air bases where US troops are stationed. As the last member of Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance, what is its future?
The defeat of the Axis of Resistance With Israel's destruction of Iran's proxies in Gaza and Lebanon and indirectly causing the collapse of the al-Asad regime,. As a result, the political winds in Iraq are beginning to change. Iraq's Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has stated that it's time for the PMUs to be integrated into the Iraqi Army, something that was supposed to happen several years ago.
With the government aware that the PMUs' benefactor, Iran, faces serious economic crisis and has lost of much of its regional political clout, now is the time in the view of many of Iraq's political elite to reign in the Tehran regime's local agents.
In November 2024, following a stark warning from Israel, stop the drone attacks. Fearful of suffering the same fate as HAMAS and Hizballah, the PMUs cut back on their drone attacks on Israel. The Iraqi government, on the other hand, has tried, without success, to end PMU attacks on the United States Embassy in Baghdad and the airbase where US troops are stationed.
A state within a state PMUs are despised by much of the Iraqi population. They promote Iranian interests in Iraq such as the sale of Iranian goods which compete with Iraqi companies. Militias have seized houses, agricultural land and businesses, and threatened families and lawyers who have attempted regain possession of their property.
In the Jurf al-Sakhr region along the Tigris River in Babel Governorate, the PMUs expelled the local farmers and establish a large limits area which they store illicit goods which are sold on the black market throughout Arab Iraq. Even Iraq's Prime Minister and Armed Force Chief of Staff are forbidden from entering this area.
In 2023, the PMUs won 101 of 285 seats in Iraq's Provincial Council elections. Using a carrot and stick, the PMUs used their extensive resources to offer voters jobs in construction and road paving industry, contracts to business interests, government employment to local residents and other bribes. Candidates who opposed PMU candidates were threatened in an effort to force them to drop out of the elections. The Leadership and Purpose of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces
Iraqis have responded to PMU corruption by boycotting Iranis goods which they see aas competing with Iraqi products. While Iraqis welcome the 1000s of Iranian pilgrims who visit Iraq's Shi'a shrine cities each year, they resent the PMUs using their politcial power to privilege Iranian products in local markets.
As an example of the kind of corruption in which the PMU is involved, a scandal was recently discovered in which the Islamic University of Lebanon in Beirut had awarded more than a 1000 PMU militia members doctoral degrees in engineering and other specialized degrees.
The problem with these degrees is that those who received Ph.D.s never attended any classes at the Islamic University of Lebanon. With 40% of Iraqis living below the poverty level and thousands of Iraqi youth who have graduates but haven't been able to find gainful employment, this type of corruption infuriates the Iraqi people. New Corruption on the Part of the Islamists: More than 1000 Doctorates for al-Hashad al-Sha'bi
Cracks in the PMU alliance The impact of the Gaza War and Iran's economic crisis has seriously undermined the PMUs power in Iraq. Already three years ago, the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps informed the PMUs that they could no longer count on financial support from Iran given the poor state of its economy.
With the colapse of the Axis of Resistance and weakened Iran, a schism has developed within the PMU ranks. Efforts are underway to remove Falih Fayyadh, the PMU commander, from his post. Qa'is al-Khazali, head of the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haqq militia, is using Fayydh's call for a more moderate posture on the PMUs part towards cooperating with the Iraqi government to accuse him of undermining the PMUs' mission.
US foreign policy in Iraq and Syria What should the Trump administration do to undermine the last militia movement in the so-called Axis of Resistance? First, Trump must abandon the lens through which he views American foreign policy. There is no "deal" to be made in Iraq. Unlike Iram there are no sanctions or tariffs which can be levied on Iraq to rid it of the PMUs.
Second, if Trump wants to eventually eliminate the threat Iran's proxy militias pose to American interests in the Middle East and the region's security, he must maintain current troop levels in Iraq and Syria. If he withdraws these troops, it will be "penny wise and pound foolish." Without US forces to support our closest ally in the MENA region, the Syrian Democratic Forces, Islamic State terrorist cells will be able to reestablish bases Eastern Syria.
Third, if the Islamic State establishes more bases in Syria, it will not only strengthen the its attempted comeback there, but facilitate the terrorists' ability to increase its already numerous attacks in North Central Iraq. While it makes sense to support replacing some US troops in Iraq with NATO forces, there is no substitute for the logistical and intelligence support the US can provide the Iraqi government.
Current US forces in Iraq have a lengthy experience fighting the Islamic State terrorists and training Iraq's counter-terrorism forces. Should US forces be withdrawn from Iraq, Iran would claim a victory over the "Great Satan."
Equally important, US forces withdrawal from Iraq would encourage Islamic State fighters to increase their attacks in Iraq. They would view such a withdrawal as evidence of American weakness and lack of interest in defending Iraq.
Precisely when the PMUs are weak isn't the time to strengthen their control of Iraqi politics and its economy. We need remember that the PMUs achieved their original legitimacy not only from the fatwa Ayatollah 'Ali al-Sistani issued in 2014 justifying their creation, but from their success in preventing Islamic State forces from reaching Baghdad in 2014.With US forces no longer in Iraq, the PMUs can argue that they are needed once again to assure the Islamic State doesn't reestablish itself in Iraq.
Needless to say, Trump's withdrawal of US forces in Iraq will have a domino effect. It will also embolden the Islamic State in Syria placing greater pressure on our key ally, the Syrian Democratic Forces, which is a large prison camp and other prisons in Eastern Syria which hold over 60,000 Islamic State fighters and their families.
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