Even a superficial look at the Middle East shows that the region is facing a series of crises like none it has encountered before. Is the problem one that Orientalists once proposed, namely the incompatibility of Islam and politics,. which inevitability leads to political instability? Or are there more complex explanations required to make sense of the crises plaguing the Middle East?
A core answer to this question is captured by the saying that "the fish rots from the head down." In other words, throughout the Middle East, political leaders has failed miserably to improve the lives of their citizens and implement tolerant and democratic governance. Had a number of political leaders made different decisions over the past several decades, the Middle East would look very different today.
Whether we're talking about Iran, Israel, HAMAS, Turkey, Lebanon, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Sudan, Syria, Yemen or Tunisia, everywhere one looks politics is repressive, unstable or both. And lurking in the shadows are extremist groups like the Islamic State waiting to pounce once the moment is ripe with instability.
Where to begin? The five most volatile MENA region crises are, in my view:1) Iran's foreign policy in the region; 2) the Israeli-HAMAS War; 3) the Sudanese civil war; 4) the policies of the post-Asad regime in Syria; and 5) Recep Tayyip Erdogan's repression at home and meddling in Syrian politics and other MENA region issues beyond Turkey. I Am the Turkish President’s Main Challenger. I Was Arrested.
In this post, I focus on the two most dangerous crises. Iran's continued effort to develop nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them threatens to provoke a massive Israeli attack with serious regional consequences. If the Gaza War continues, that too presents a major threat to regional stability. It will encourage more Gazan youth to join HAMAS and embolden the Israeli far-right to demand the Gaza Strip's annexation and expulsion of its residents.
Iran's threat to regional stability Iran created a so-called "Axis of Evil" comprising a number of regional proxy militias: Hizballah in Lebanon, HAMAS in the Gaza Strip, the Popular Mobilization Units (al-hashad al-sha'bi) in Iraq, and Houthi rebels in Yemen. As the Tehran regime has spread its political influence throughout the Eastern MENA region (al-Mashriq), its actions has been among the most destabilizing in the Middle East. See my post: Last Man Standing: What is the Fate of Iran's Proxy Militias in Iraq?
The culmination of Iran's overreach, all legitimized by its efforts to destroy Israel and "liberate" Jerusalem, was the brutal HAMAS attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Although it seems the Iranian regime was not informed of the attack, it was responsible for arming HAMAS, funding the organization, and even training some of its fighters in Iran.
But after a year and a half of the Gaza War, Iran's proxy forces lie in shambles. Hizballah and HAMAS have been seriously degraded with their senior leadership killed. Bashar al-Asad's regime in Syria, which supported Iran and provided a land bridge to Lebanon, has been toppled. Meanwhile, Iraq's PMUs are engaged in a struggle over how closely they should be tied to Tehran. Meanwhile, Houthi forces in Yemen are subject to an ongoing air attack by the United States. US airstrikes pound Yemen overnight, killing at least 3, Houthi rebels say
Iran has recently indicated a willingness to discuss, via indirect talks, its nuclear enrichment program with the Trump administration. Because most analysts see Iran attempting to develop nuclear weapons, Israel has made clear its intention to strike Iran if its uranium enrichment reaches a level which would allow to to produce a bomb. Given hardliners' political control, and that fact that Iran's nuclear program is one of the last cards it holds, it is doubtful such talks would produce any meaningful results.
Complicating matters is the weakness of Iran's current president, Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate who was elected on a reformist platform. Iran's presidency is a largely symbolic position because real power lies in the hands of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Further, hardliners have used Pezeshkian's desire for direct talks with the United States as an excuse to attack him and remove his allies from power. Meanwhile, his popularity has fallen due to his failure to confront Iran's decaying economy. President Pezeshkian: Already a lost cause?
Because no solution is in sight, the probability is that the United States will give Israel the green light to attack Iran sometime in the near future. During its attacks in April and October, 2024, Israeli jets destroyed not only the Russian supplied air defense system around Tehran but key components of Iran's natural gas infrastructure. The October attacks seriously disrupted electricity generation and reduced industrial production to 30% of normal output. Iran's currency has tanked, electricity is rationed and prices for consumer goods have skyrocketed. The regime is aware that its popularity has dropped precipitously.
How Iran would respond to an Israeli attack designed to destroy its nuclear enrichment program is difficult to predict. However, it would certainly add to the MENA region's instability. Because China (and India) are dependent on Iranian oil, exports of crude could drop sharply, incentivizing China to become more involved in the Persian Gulf.
It took intense pressure from the Biden administration in 2021 to prevent China from building a military base in the United Arab Emirates near Abu Dhabi. An Israeli attack on Iran could lead China to renew its efforts to court Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states. Because many Arab states see the Trump administration as giving the Netanyahu regime carte blanche in attacking Gaza and Lebanon, and even expelling the Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza, they may view expanding their alliances with China as increasing their ability to extract more concessions from Trump Work on ‘Chinese military base’ in UAE abandoned after US intervenes – report
An Israeli attack would undermine efforts by Israel and the United States to normalize relations between the Jewish state and Saudi Arabia. As with the Gaza War, Israel's ties with the Arab states with which it already has relations have become much more chilly. Thus, it isn't possible to separate Iran's nuclear program from the other big regional crisis, the ongoing conflict between Israel and HAMAS.
Apart from Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners, such as Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, there is little appetite in Israel and the rest of the Middle East for the war in Gaza to continue. Nevertheless, many hostages still remain under HAMAS control and Netanyahu uses its failure to release them to legitimize his continuation of bombing Gaza which has raised the Palestinian death toll to over 50,000 at the time of this writing.
Meanwhile, the attacks on Palestinians in the Occupied West Bank continue. Anyone who has seen the 2024 Oscar winner for Best Documentary film, No Other Land, cannot fail to find the brutality of Israeli soldiers and West Bank settler repulsive. Unlike the Biden administration which sanctioned some West Bank settlers for their violent acts, Trump remains silent, only angering the Arab-Americans who voted for him and the MENA region's Arab populations. Film academy apologizes for not naming ‘No Other Land’ co-director in response to attack on him
Where are the leaders? As these two major crises underscore, little or nothing is being done to solve them in the West. In the past, the United States has played a major role in addressing the MENA region's problems (although often not in a constructive manner). While the Trump administration, to its credit, is attempting to bring Iran to the negotiating table, it has undermined its credibility with its threat to take over the Gaza Strip, expel its residents and turn the region into a tourist destination, a so-called "Riviera of the Middle East."
Netanyahu has made clear, as numerous Israeli analysts - many in the military and security services - have argued, that his policies towards peace with the Palestinians are shaped by his political ambitions, not his concern for the well being of the Israeli people, let alone the Palestinians. HAMAS has only brought suffering and destruction to the Palestinians of Gaza. But Netanyahu's continued bombing of the area will not bring political change to the Strip. It will only help HAMAS recruit more Gazan youth to its ranks.
Netanyahu has still to own up to his role in promoting HAMAS' 2023 attack. He funded HAMAS to weaken the Palestine National Authority with the goal of preventing moderate Palestinians making any progress towards the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. ‘Buying Quiet’: Inside the Israeli Plan That Propped Up Hamas
Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan A third group of leaders who have the ability to be more actively involved in defusing the two major crises facing the MENA region are Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. Although Saudi Prime Minister Muhammad Bin Salman has hosted multiple talks to end the war in Ukraine, he has expended little effort to mediate between Iran and the United States, or to help end the war in Gaza.
Egypt, on the other hand, has offered its services to bring the Gaza War to an end and have the remaining Israeli hostages which HAMAS holds released. Representatives of Israel and HAMAS have negotiated indirectly through Egypt's auspices for several months. Qatar has also served in this capacity and hosted delegations, especially because it has allowed HAMAS senior political leadership to live in Doha. (At this writing, the hostage crisis appears on the verge of a possible breakthrough).
However, the key stumbling block to a final end to the war in Gaza is removing HAMAS as a military force. Here there are only two Arab states who could accomplish this end - Egypt and Jordan. Egypt has the largest army in the Arab world and Jordan's military is one of the best trained.
Given recent Gaza protests and HAMAS' military and political weakness, Arab military forces could occupy the Gaza Strip. Egyptian and Jordanian forces would gain much more cooperation from the Gazan Palestinians than an Israeli occupying force. One of the key to defeating HAMAS would be locating the tunnels in which HAMAS fighters hide. Identifying tunnel openings and air ducts requires help from the Gazan residents. If they could be effectively blocked, HAMAS fighters would need to surrender or face death by starvation or lack of oxygen.
Also central to the success of an Arab military mission would be the promise that the Egyptian and Jordanian forces would give the Gazan Palestinians that they would no longer face the prospect of being expelled from the Gaza Strip. The United States and Israel would need to give their blessing to a military incursion by Arab forces.
If Egypt and Jordan would commit to keeping the Gaza Strip free of HAMAS fighters, and Saudi Arabia would agree to fund the military operation, the Gaza War would give Donald Trump a win. It would prevent the Israeli far-right from annexing the Strip to Israel and expelling Gaza's residents. With HAMAS neutralized, Netanyahu could claim victory and the United States could return to its efforts to normalize diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Ridding the Gaza Strip of HAMAS, preventing the Israeli far-right from expelling its residents, and allowing Saudi Arabia ands the Arab Gulf states to help the Gazan Palestinians rebuild their society would be the best outcome we could expect at the moment.
The Trump administration has no creative ideas for ending the Israeli-HAMAS War or for the future of Gaza's residents. Netanyahu can't be trusted to pursue an agreement which would end the war and lead to long-term stability in Gaza. Thus, the question of the hour is the following: Will Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan step up to the plate and bring the horrors which the Palestinians of Gaza have now suffered for a year and a half to an end?
