How "Ayn Breira," Monopoly's Get Out of Jail Free Card, and Yogi Berra Help Explain the Israel-Iran-United States Crisis

President Donald Trump and Ayatolla Ali Khamenei

After the Israeli attack and US bombing of Iran, a number of analysts now speak of a "New Middle East." The MENA region is already difficult enough to understand. So how do we address the question of how we should interpret what the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, in which the United States is now directly involved, implies for understanding the region?

Ayn breira Let's begin with the Hebrew expression "ayn breira"(there is no choice). Since the 1948 Arab-Israeli War which followed the foundation of Israel, a mentality developed that there was no choice facing Israel in terms of its Arab neighbors other than the use of force. Indeed, force rather than negotiation  has been the strategy of choice for most of Israel's existence.  

Netanyahu has built on this worldview to pursue his attacks on Gaza which have, according to Israel's military and intelligence establishment, killed more than 55,000 Gaza Palestinians, mostly women and children.  If we look back at Israel's wars, 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, 2006, 2014, 2023-25, do we find Israel stronger or weaker in the large Middle East? 

In his film, Abraham and Isaac, Israeli filmmaker Ilan Ziv uses the metaphor of God's order to Abraham to kill his son Isaac.  Abraham's devotion and loyalty to God is tested and Isaac is give a reprieve just as he is about to be slain.  Ziv focuses on the idea of "ayn breira" as a metaphor for condemning future Israelis generations to conflict and a "fortress mentality," namely, teaching them that violence and death are the only recourse the country has to defend itself.

In the film, Ziv argues with his mother who remembers the battles of the 1948 Arab-Israeli War that there are other choice beyond war to deal with Israel's enemies. He also argues with his younger brother who wants to become a paratrooper in the Israeli army. Neither relative recognizes the consequences of war. These are clear in Ziv's poignant comments about his military unit's comrades who died in the June 1967 Arab-Israeli War but who are now "are only memories represented in photographs." 

Israel did choose negotiations at one point in its history.  Following the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Israel and Egypt established diplomatic relations through signing the historic 1978 Camp David Accords mediated by President Jimmy Carter.  The Accords led to the ties established with Jordan in 1994.  Israel and its two former enemies have sustained peaceful relations ever since.  

However, a major incentive for then Israeli prime minister Menachem Began was the failure of the Camp David Accords to address the Israel-Palestine conflict and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.  Indeed, the Accords created widespread anger in the Arab world because the Palestinians.  The Accords certainly contributed to Anwar al-Sadat's assassination while reviewing a military parade celebrating the October 1973 War in October 1981. 

The take away from this analysis is that, had Israel pushed a policy of creating an independent state, including using its Shin Bet and Mossad intelligence agencies to protect the leaders of the new Palestinian state, Iran would have lost much of the legitimacy for its raison d'être, namely the "liberation of Jerusalem." In fact, I would probably not be writing this post had an dependent Palestinian state been established after Camp David or the 1995 Oslo Accords.

Monopoly's "Get Out of Free" card Any of us who played Monopoly are familiar with the "Get Out of Jail Free" card. How does this card help explain the Israel-Iran crisis?  Benjamin Netanyahu, who is under indictment for widespread corruption, desperately seeks to avoid being convicted and sent to jail.  In Israel's history, one president and one prime minister have spent time in jail after being convicted of crimes.

Despite the sword of Demacles hanging over Netanyahu's head, the Western media has almost entirely ignored one of the main drivers behind his order to attack Iran. This is also true of Netanyahu's motive in keeping the war in Gaza going, even though his generals and intelligence chiefs have indicated that Israel has achieved all its military goals.  The universal support Netanyahu has engendered among Israels after the attack on Iran, multiple intelligence agencies in Israel, the United States and elsewhere have argued that Iran was not on the cusp of developing a nuclear weapon.

If Netanyahu loses the support of the ultra-nationalist far-right ,members of his cabinet, particularly, Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, and Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, his government will fall and he will lose his immunity from prosecution. Riding high in national polls as a result of his attack on Iran, continuing the struggle with Iran and the Gaza War gives him a "get out of jail free" card.

Yogi Berra Anyone who has followed American baseball knows Yogi Berra, the late great catcher for the New York Yankees during the 1950s and 1960s. Berra is know for his sayings, e.g., "the place is so crowded, no one goes there anymore."  For our purposes, two Yogisms stand out.  The first is: "It ain't over, til' it's over."

Trump sees his foreign policy decisions through the lens of his career in real estate. Every foreign decision is a discrete event. The deal involves negotiation - even bluster and threats - until the deal is concluded. Once the deal is signed, put it in the books and move on to the next issue.  Unfortunately for Trump, foreign policy cannot be treated as a series of real estate deals.

While Iran should never be allowed to possess a nuclear bomb, its seems clear from the International Atomic Energy Commission that, while severely damaged, Iran still has the capacity to enrich uranium and ultimately build a nuclear bomb. Thus, echoing Yogi's saying, Irans' threat to the Middle East is definitely not over  U.N. nuclear watchdog says Iran could enrich uranium again in 'a matter of months

"If you come to a fork in the road, take it" is yet another well-known Yogism. Trump came to a fork in the road and decided first to negotiate with Iran to end its nuclear enrichment program, telling Netanyahu that the US wouldn't support an attack on Iran. However, Netanyahu, fearful that a US-Iran deal would negatively affect his political fortunes, decided to attack anyway, with or without the US' permission., 

Once Trump saw Israel's success in its attack, he decided to take another fork in the road. Suddenly, POTUS was using the term "We," meaning "We (the United States) are in control of the skies over Iran." Following the US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, Trump was furious when leaked intelligence reports contradicted his assertion that Iran's nuclear program had been "obliterated." 

Contra Trump's claim, the deal was not settled and permanently placed in the books. Trump should have remembered George W. Bush's presumptuous May 1, 2003 "Mission Accomplished" speech aboard the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln when he declared victory in Iraq. It took until 2011 before US troops left Iraq, even though a residual 2,500 member contingent still remains there today to fight Islamic State terrorists. 

Where does the Israel-US-Iran crisis go from here? If the United States had pressured Israel to establish an independent Palestinian state a long time ago, the repressive Tehran regime would have had the wind taken out of its sails. Under multiple proposals in the past, Israel and the new Palestinian state would have shared Jerusalem as their respective capitals. The Old City would have been placed under an international condominium for 25 years until both parties decided on its final status in relation to the larger city.

As long as Netanyahu is at the helm in Israel and Trump in the White House, we will not see that type of effort anytime in the near future.  Still, a reformed Palestinian National Authority, with Mahmoud Abbas removed from office because he's thoroughly corrupt and hasn't held elections since 2013 when they were legislatively scheduled, could administer the new Palestinian state.  

Dr. Salam Fayyad, who Abbas fired as prime minister in 2013, as a result of his efforts to tackle PNA corruption, would make an excellent head of the new Palestinian state. Meanwhile, an Arab military force could rid the Gaza Strip of the HAMAS terrorists.  Such developments would open the way for diplomatic and commercial ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It would also empower Israel's Palestinian citizens who could serve as interlocutors between the two states and the large Arab Gulf. Beyond Historical Amnesia, Revenge and the Good-Evil Binary: Solving the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute Once and For All

In a recent article, Thomas Friedman argues that the continuation of the status quo could result in a great irony.  We could see Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli far-right return to its efforts to eviscerate the power of Israel's Supreme Court and move Israel in the direction of the type of the theocracy we currently see in Iran. Iran, in turn, might see the fall of the Tehran regime and the country move towards a moderate form of democracy. If This Mideast War Is Over, Get Ready for Some Interesting Politics

Whether such changes will occur has yet to be seen.  Clearly, new initiatives to bring peace and stability to the Middle East are needed.  Unfortunately, neither the current Israeli or American political leadership has a strategy to move in that direction.