The World Health Organization predicts that 50% of the world's population will face water shortages by 2100. The United Nations forecasts that 700 milion people will be displaced by water shortages by 2030. Little effort is being made to address this intensifying crisis. Nowhere is the crisis Tehran's leadership continues to threaten Israel with massive retaliation if it attacks Iran again and that Europe will experience "severe consequences" if it reimposes sanctions on Iran for not accounting for its enriched uranium. The absurdity of such statements becomes clear when the world sees that the Islamic Republic is unable to provide its population with adequate water. In Tehran, the problem is so severe that the capital city may run out of water in the coming three months.
Further, Israeli attacks destroyed much of Iran's natural gas infrastructure which has dramatically cut deliveries of electricity to Iranian industries. Not only has industrial production been severely diminished, but Iranians are experiencing rolling blackouts of electricity during on the worst heat waves Iran has ever experienced. Iran’s triple crisis is reshaping daily life
Iran is perhaps the most serious example of the manner in which climate change and global warming are restructuring the MENA region. Although it is the region which is experiencing the worst impact of climate change globally, few governments, aside from Israel, have taken the problem seriously. What could the outcome of the climate threat be to the Middle East if no action is taken to confront it?
During the last century, much of the discussion centered on the degree to which water scarcity could lead to conflict in the MENA region. However, that outcome hasn't come to pass. There is no neighboring country which Iran could attack to ameliorate its water crisis. Iraq, whose Euphrates River water supply has been reduced by upstream Turkish dams lacks the military wherewithal to force Turkey to open its dams and allow more water to flow downstream.
Syria, like Iraq, highly dependent on external water supplies. Indeed, most analysts agree that thr origins of the Syrian civil war began with the drying up of the Euphrates River which forced Syrian farmers and their families to leave their villages along the rive and proceed West hoping for material relief from the regime of Bashar al-Asad.
Instead, the village residents were ignored and, when they began peaceful demonstrations, were attacked by regime forces. Nevertheless, these internal developments had no impact on Turkey agreeing to provide more water to Syria's section of the Euphrates River.
Jordan is likewise facing a water shortage crisis. It is the second most threatened nation in the world in terms of water scarcity. In Jordan's case, military issues don't enter the picture. Jordan has lost water in the Yarmouk River as a result of diversions upstream by Israel and Syria. There is obviously no way Jordan could force Israel and Syria to help alleviate its access to additional water resources.
Population growth, dilapidated infrastructure, and unsustainable agricultural practices poses serious problems which have yet to be addressed. The aquifer which provides water to Amman is dangerously low. As water shortages grow, Jordan's poorer residents will suffer most. Stanford study reveals a deepening water crisis in Jordan – and a way forward
One of the few options available to Jordan is to use desalination of water from the Gulf of Aqaba and the Red Sea. In January of this year, the Jordanian government announced a contract with Meridiam-SUEZ to build the second largest water desalinization plant in the world, known as the The Aqaba-Amman Water Desalination and Conveyance Project, water will be extracted from below sea level to reduce disruption of marine life and photo-voltaic energy will be used to power the transmission. Major desalination project in Jordan receives a financial boost from the Netherlands
If Jordan is confronting its water scarcity crisis, at least for its capital, Amman, and its port city of Aqaba, Tunisia's water problem is far worse. In many areas of the country, agriculture has collapsed forcing farmers and farm workers to move to urban areas in search of jobs. The threat of water scarcity began in the 1990s but now has reached crisis proportions. Dam water levels have dropped from 65% in 2019 to 40% in 2020 and have remained at that low level ever since.
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| A map of the problems caused by Tunisia's water shortage in 2025 |
Tunisia's agricultural sector consumes 80% of the country's water supply, largely to grow crops for export to European markets. Environmental specialist have argued that Tunisia needs to restructure its agrarian sector to produce crops destined for the local market which meet the population's food needs. However, Tunisia's authoritarian president Kais Sa'id has little incentive to develop the country's agriculture in a way which would help the rural population, particularly small landowners and farm workers.
To meet Tunisia's severe water shortages, desalinization plants have been built on the island of Djerba and in the south east of the country. However, these plants require large amounts of electricity which makes each liter of potable water highly expensive to produce. The desalination process produces a large amount of brine per liter which many environmentalist argue presents a danger to Tunisia's coastal marine life. Desalination only produces 6% of Tunisia.s water needs. Desalination Projects in Tunisia: Fresh Water at What Cost?
Closely linked to the water crisis is Tunisia's economic stagnation. Of youth between 18 and 29, 75% want to leave the country given this demographic's 38% unemployment rate While in the past, it was Tunisians lacking education who sought to emigrate, now even highly educated Tunisians seek to go abroad and establish a new life. In sum, the water crisis is just the part of the failure of authoritarian regimes throughout the MENA region to take the needs of their populations seriously.
Egypt and water shortages: where conflict ios bound to occur. The one country where water scarcity seems on the verge of promoting conflict is Egypt. The regime of 'Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi has threatened to attack Ethiopia which has constructed a large dam across the Blue Nile. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is designed to produce electricity for 60,000 Ethiopians who currently lack such access. However,
Egypt has argued that even a 2% reduction in the Nile's water would lead it to lose 200,000 acres of irrigated land. Irrigation is critical for Egypt's main crop, cotton, which requires large amounts of water. Egypt is especially worried about how Ethiopia will direct water flows during a period of extended drpought, a not unreasonable concern given rapid global warming.
Given its concerns, Egypt has threatened to attack Ethiopia. Because the distance between the two countries is over 1500 miles, it would be difficult for the Egyptian air force or army to mount such an attack. However, a commando operation to disable the dam is not out of the question. Whether this type of attack would disable the dam for a lengthy period of time or only briefly is difficult to say.
Water shortage, domestic instability and increased migration Having argued that water scarcity in the MENA region will not lead to military conflict among the region's states (except possibly a trans-regional conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia), it will still create other forms of instability. With agriculture under stress or collapsing in lareg parts of the MENA region, rural-to-urban migration will dramatically increase.
However, unemployment i n most of the MENA region's urban ares is high, added residents will only increase competition for limited economic resources. This scenario provides fertile soil for crime and/or recruitment to radical Islamist organizations which play on the frustration of recently arrived rural migrants. An increase in terrorist acts and a repressive response by the region's authoritarian regimes would only accentuate the region's current lack of political stability.
As I argued in an earlier post, migration from the MENA region to Europe has added to the fears of local populations that immigrants will take jobs and make already weak economic conditions even worse. Despite vigorous efforts to interdict migrants in the Mediterranean Sea, the flow of migrants from North Africa, which includes not Arabs but sub-Saharan Africans (see the excellent film of the dangers of the migration journey: Io Capitano (I am the Captain)
How a Palestinian state could help solve the MENA region address its water crisis. The one country in the MENA region which has seriously addressed the water crisis is Israel. In the context of the ongoing Gaza War, clearly there is no possibility for any Arab state to partner with the far-right, ultra-nationalist government led by Benjamin Netanyahu.
However, once the Gaza War ends and remaining living hostages are released, a new Israeli government could allow an Arab peacekeeping force to take over administration of Gaza and Saudi Arabia and Arab Gulf states to begin the rebuilding the Strip.
If steps were made to allow the Palestinian National Authority to take control of Gaza and begin negotiations to establish a Palestinian state, then Israel could begin to offer the technology it has used to develop its own agriculture under conditions of extreme heart and limited water supply.
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