Iran and the New Axis of Evil: Why the Tehran Regime Must Be Toppled

Iran's Sajjil-2 ballistic missile

In the wake of HAMAS' October 7, 2023, terrorist attack on Israel, the Middle East is facing a period of even greater instability. While it's difficult to imagine that conditions in the region could worsen, the attack's aftermath points to a level of conflict which could not only engulf the Middle East but extend far beyond it. Who is primarily responsible for this dangerous escalation of regional and possibly global conflict?

While HAMAS would be identified by most observers, the answer is actually the so-called Islamic Republic of Iran. The Tehran regime has spent its financial, political and military capital to extend its regional influence. Without its arming of HAMAS and training its fighters, even conducting such training in Iran, HAMAS wouldn't have been emboldened to attack Israel. Iran's missile attack on Israel on April 13, 2023 demonstrates that conflict between the two states could lead to a regional war.

This post argues that Iran has become such a rogue state that it is time for the United States, its allies and the international community which supports a stable international order to move aggressively to cripple and eventually topple the Tehran regime. The four plus decades since the 1978-79 Iranian Revolution has given the Tehran regime ample time to prove that it is willing to become respected nation-state in the MENA region. Based on its consistent destabilizing actions, the time for it to achieve such a status has long since passed.

The so-called Islamic Republic contributes nothing positive to the MENA region. Its goal is to destroy Israel, eliminate the United States' presence in the Middle East, place countries such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen under its control and become the region's superpower.  To accomplish these ends, the Tehran regime has pursued four strategies. 

First, it is actively working to develop nuclear weapons and a ballistic missile system with which to deliver these weapons.  Despite repeated efforts by the international community to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons, including sanctions and cyber attacks on the centrifuges designed to produce weapons grade plutonium, Iran continues to press ahead with their development.

Second, Iran has established a vast network of militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Gaza to help it enact its foreign policy goals by surrounding Israel and the US' Arab allies with its proxies. By training and funding militias, and recently providing them with increasingly sophisticated missiles, Iran can allow these proxies to do its regional "dirty work," thereby escaping responsibility for their actions and an attack on its own territory.

Third, Iran has strengthened its ties with Russia, China and North Korea, all of which are regimes pursuing foreign policies designed to weaken the United States and its allies, and disrupt the rule-based international order. As these ties grow ever stronger, it is no exaggeration to speak of a new "Axis of Evil."

In 2022, Iran began delivering its Shahed 136 suicide drones to help Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.  Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces were sent to Russia to train military personnel on the use of these drones.  Russia in turn has been supplying Iran with extensive weapons systems including fighter aircraft. It also is indirectly assisting Iran develop nuclear weapons by assisting in the construction of a nuclear power plant, ostensibly for national energy production. Timeline: Iran-Russia Collaboration on Drones 

Finally, the regime has used its significant oil wealth to fund its efforts to become the Middle East's dominant power. The regime has created a number of so-called foundations (bonyad) which supply it with an unlimited source of funds for its nefarious aims. Meanwhile, Iranian society suffers from the lack of investment as infrastructure and municipal services decay and unemployment rises.  However, any dissent of regime policies results in a brutal response  Iran: Security Forces Rape, Torture, Detainees

Iran finds support for its policy in the MENA region which is replete with authoritarian and unsavory regimes. These regimes have evoked negative responses from their populaces which has allowed Iran to exploit the resulting instability.  

For example, the tumult created by Benjamin Netanyahu's far right government, the most extreme in Israel's history, in trying to eliminate the power of the Supreme Court, led to months of weekly protests by hundreds of thousands of Israelis to prevent it from eliminating all checks on the power of Israel's unicameral legislature, the Knesset. Had this policy become law, it would effectively put Israel on the road to becoming a theocratic autocracy.  

That many reservists, the bulk of the Israeli army, refused to report for training in protest of Netanyahu's policy to strip the Supreme Court of its powers, is said to have been a key element in HAMAS' decision to attack Israel. HAMAS sensed weakness in Israeli society and its armed forces. Iran's training of HAMAS militants shows its complicity in the October 7th terrorist attack which the Tehran regime has lauded.

As long as bad "neighborhood effects"- namely authoritarian and repressive regimes - persist, Iran's destabilizing policies will find fertile soil. Syria's Bashar al-Asad has used chemical weapons against his own citizens seeking democracy and killed thousands of Syrians, displacing almost half the country's population. Recip Tayyip Erdogan considers HAMAS terrorists "freedom fighters, has imprisoned large numbers of journalists and bombed the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES)' democratic experiment in Northeast Syria because it's controlled by Kurds.

In Egypt, 'Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi has filled Egyptian jails with anyone who expresses dissent against his regime, even mild social media posts. The Sudanese civil war which pits army chief 'Abd al-Fattah Burhan against the Rapid Support Forces, led by Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, has caused the deaths of over 15,000 civilians. Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right regime, with its cavalier approach to the October 7, 2023 HAMAS terrorist attack, has left over 35,000 Gazans dead, the vast majority innocent of any hostile acts towards Israel. 

Hizballah has contributed to Lebanon becoming a failed state through its attacks on Israel and corrupt activity.  Its control of Beirut's port was one of the causes of the tremendous explosion which rocked the port of Beirut in 2019, leaving an estimated 40% of the population in poverty. Hizballah had prevented an inspection of the warehouse which held the massive amount of fertilizer which exploded, causing massive destruction and many deaths in Beirut. 

Nevertheless, Hizballah remains the most powerful political and military force in Lebanon. It constitutes Iran's most important defense.  Should Israel decide to mount a serious attack on Iran, it can expect Hizballah to send its more than 150,000 missiles, many of which are technologically sophisticated, to reign down on Israel, overwhelming its Iron Dome and other air defenses.

Strategic Ambiguity: Cutting off weapons supplies One of the most important foci in confronting the Tehran regime must be the interdiction of Iranian weapons to their militia proxies. Air attacks on convoys of Iranian weapons passing through Syria on their way to Hizballah must intensify. Efforts must be made to ensure that weapons, especially missiles, aren't delivered to Hizballah though Beirut's port. 

Attacks on Iranian weapons supply lines should be done surreptitiously, just as Iran carries out much of its aggressive actions unannounced.  To the extent to which the flow of weapons into Syria can be significantly reduced, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps forces in Syria will be weakened as well as Hizballah's military capacities. A network of informers can provide intelligence on the manner in which weapons are shipped though Iraq to Syria can be identified. Denial or Punishment? The U.S.-Israel Debate About How Best to Deter Iran

In Iraq, Shi'a militias controlled by Iran dominate the economy and wield powerful political influence. Iran uses its proxy forces to intimidate the Iraqi government. Although it hasn't been able to expel US forces which train the Iraqi military in counter-terrorism strategies, Iran's goal is to force the US to withdraw from Iraq. FinCEN Finds Iraq-based Al-Huda Bank to be of Primary Money Laundering Concern and Proposes a Rule to Combat Terrorist Financing 

Preventing Iran from circumventing UN sanctions Iran uses Iraq to circumvent international sanctions imposed by the United Nations as a result of its development of nuclear weapons programs.  Many "banks" have been established in Baghdad whose sole function is to launder US dollars sent to Iran. With US corporations investing in Iraq's oil sector, and its troops playing a critical role in preventing a resurgence of the Islamic State in north central Iraq, a withdrawal by US forces would jeopardize critical investments for the country's economic and infrastructure development. Iraq Bans 8 Banks From Dollar Trade To Curb Smuggling To Iran

Undermining the strength of Yemen's Houthi rebels One of Iran's most dangerous gambits is financing yet another military force, namely the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen. The Houthis control most of Yemen and, through their violent activities, have intensified the country's civil war which has created a desperate humanitarian crisis. To date, over 377,000 have been killed by the fighting and many thousands more displaced from their homes. The War on Yemen's Civilians 

The Houthis have been attacking shipping near the Bab al-Mandab entrance to the Red Sea as well as vessels in the Arabian Sea south of Yemen. While the ostensible justification for these attacks is to support HAMAS by preventing ships from reaching Israel, the Houthis have attacked many cargo ships not carrying goods or supplies to Israel.

The United States has organized Operation Prosperity Guardian which comprises a task force of naval vessels from  the United Kingdom, Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands. While the task force has intercepted Houthis missiles and drones, and seized some weapons being shipped by sea to the rebels, it needs to more effectively thwart Houthi attacks though more intensive inspection of maritime traffic off the Yemeni coast. 

Most important in this regard is cutting off the Houthi weapons supplies from Iran. Without a refurbishing of missiles and drones, the Houthis would be unable to continue their disruption of shipping through the Red Sea which constitutes 12% of the world's global trade.

Already the United States has transferred weapons seized from the Houthis to Ukraine. The more weapons that can be seized, the better off global supply lines will be as the Houthis' ability to use their attacks to recruit more Yemeni youth to their cause will be reduced. Yemen: Houthis Recruit More Child Soldiers Since October 7 Exploiting Israel-Palestine Hostilities to Expand Its Forces  

Undermining Iran's nuclear weapons program. Clearly, the greatest threat Iran poses not just to the MENA region but to the larger international community is its development of nuclear weapons. In the past, the United States and Israel have used cyber warfare to disrupt Iran's program.  Now that much of Iran's nuclear program has been located far underground, the focus should shift to preventing Iran from developing the ballistic missiles which could be used to militarily deploy a nuclear warhead.

Keeping in mind Israel's threat of a preemptive strike on Iran should it finalize developing a nuclear weapon, especially if it also possesses the missiles which could be used to strike other countries, the United States needs to mobilize an international coalition to prevent the potential for a regional war in the Middle East. In light of the Tehran regime's increasingly close ties with Russia and China, such a war could spread beyond the MENA region.

Using cyber warfare to disrupt missile launches, and even targeting such missiles once test fired, should be considered as part of a strategy to prevent the Middle East from reaching the precipice of what could be a catastrophic military conflagration.

International sanctions must be kept in place, and indeed intensified. However, sanctions alone will not deter Iran from continuing to pursue policies which seriously destabilize the MENA region. United States policy must be accompanied by an intensive public relations campaign designed to put the Tehran regime on the defensive.  The UN Security Council is one venue where such a public realtions campaign should be waged. The Tehran regime's reckless regional adventurism and repressive domestic policies must be kept on constant display in the eyes of the international community.