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Superficially, it may seem that Donald Trump has achieved a number of successes in the Middle East. He pressured Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire between Israel and HAMAS. He formed a Board of Peace, which he heads, that is tasked with rebuilding Gaza. In June 2025, he ordered US forces to bomb Iran's major nuclear facilities, claiming that the the attack destroyed the production facilities. Trump has established ties with the Ahmad Sharaa, Syria's new president, and ended US sanctions on the country.
Looking beneath the surface, however, we see that US foreign policy in the MENA region under Trump is actually a hodge-podge of half-baked initiatives which rest on shaky foundations. All of Trump's decisions have been accompanied by promises of major changes to come. Thus far, these exaggerated promises ring hollow because they haven't come to pass.
Trump Policy in the Israel-Gaza War Take the Gaza War, for example. While it's true that a formal ceasefire is in place, Israel controls half of the strip and has killed hundreds of Palestinians since it began. As of late January 2026, the number was 520 (of a total of almost 72,000, more than half women and children) Despite promises of allowing Gazans who need medical attention, some desperately, only a trickle have been allowed through the Rafah Crossing into Egypt Israeli attacks on Gaza kill 23 in one of deadliest days since ‘ceasefire’
Meanwhile, HAMAS controls the other half of Gaza. It has refused to disarm which is critical if a meaningful peace is to be established. Its execution of Palestinians who it feels will challenge its rule and its reimposition of brutal control over Gaza isn't the type of behavior of an organization interested in concluding a peace agreement with Israel.
As for the Board of Peace, many countries which have serious interests in the Middle East, particularly those in the EU, have refused to join it. There is no rhyme or reason to its membership which includes an odd assortment of countries. And nothing indicates that it's much more than a beauty project for Trump to project his persona onto the international stage.
Trump has thrown around all sorts of numbers which he asserts are promised investment funds for rebuilding Gaza. Nevertheless, the populace has immediate needs of housing, food, medical care and education which aren't being met. Instead Trump has completely ignored of discussing these needs, talking of building hotels along the Mediterranean in Gaza.
As for the technocratic Palestinian governance structure and the foreign troops who are supposed to police the Gaza Strip, nothing concrete has been implemented on this front. Indonesia has volunteered to send 8,000 troops to Gaza but only after HAMAS is no longer a threat.
In Indonesia, the proposed employment is deeply unpopular. many Indonesian sympathize with the Palestinian cause and fear that Trump's Board of Peace is just a vehicle for implementing the Netanyahu regime's policies in Gaza. Analysts also note that Indonesia volunteered its forces to influence Trump's tariff policies. Now that the US Supreme Court has nullified much of Trump's authority to impose tariffs, Indonesia's president may be less inclined to send his troops after all Why is Indonesia sending thousands of troops into Gaza?
Trump Policy Towards Iran At this writing, the Trump administration is negotiating with Iran to have it eliminate its right to enrich uranium. Of course, Iran argues that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, a claim which few take seriously. The contradictions of the negotiations underscore once again the prevarication of Trump's claims to have "obliterated" Iran's nuclear facilities. If everything was destroyed during US air attacks in June 2025, why the need for the ongoing negotiations to end Iran's nuclear program?
The Tehran regime is fully aware of the extensive warnings which the US military and American foreign policy establishment has given Trump about the possible negative consequences of am attack on Iran. A major argument has been that such an attack on a regime which views itself as existentially vulnerable could lead it to pull out all the stops in its retaliation for an attack.
American bases in the Gulf and Iraq, an attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies and even closing the Straits of Hormuz at the opening of the Persian Gulf through which 20% of the world's oil flows could create havoc in the Gulf region and global markets. That Trump already failed to live up to his promise to Iranian demonstrators that "help is on the way" and his threat to bomb Iran if it kept killing and executing them shows his talk has yet to be backed up by action.
Thousands of demonstrators have been killed by paramilitary forces, often being shot at close range, and thousands more have been arrested and tortured to admit to crimes they didn't commit. While Trump condemns this regime behavior when asked by reporters, his focus for the past several weeks has been entirely on Iran's nuclear program, not the regime's war crimes against its citizens.
In the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea and Mediterranean, Trump has amassed an armada of ships, troops and fighter aircraft which the United States hasn't seen since March 2003 when the Bush administration was preparing to invade Iraq. While the cost of this military buildup to American taxpayers is huge, we are now learning that Trump may only order a "symbolic" attack on Iran. For Trump, Military Strike in Iran Could Serve Symbolic Purpose
Trump has also received warnings that decapitating the current regime through a military strike could lead to a worse outcome. If Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is deposed, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could take over the government, placing leaders even more hard line in positions of authority. With the civilian leadership, e.g., President Masoud Pezeshkian, displaced, military action by the IRGC could produce a greater threat than the deposed clerical leadership.
Treating foreign policy like a real estate deal which is viewed as a "one off" event, combined with the spectacle of bombastic but non-actionable rhetoric, is not a recipe for a successful foreign policy, in the MENA region or elsewhere. Trump needs to accept that toppling the Tehran regime is a long-term, concerted effort. This would include destroying the "shadow" tanker fleet. Iran uses this unregistered fleet of tankers to offload its oil at sea and then sell it to buyers such as China.
The despotic and genocidal "Islamic Republic" needs to be brought down, Attacks on the Tehran regime's arms factories, such as the Shahed drones it sells to Russia, using both cyber warfare and domestic strikes, would further disrupt the economy. Disabling infrastructure such as natural gas supplies would degrade Iran's manufacturing sector. Because the economy is on life support, such a strategy - rather than the "shock and awe" Trump prefers - would require sustained attention.
As Trump's presidency has made clear, his decision-making is fickle. He can one decision in the morning and counteract it by evening or the next day. Aside from pursuing revenge and exacting retribution of his supposed enemies, Trump refuses to devote any detailed and sustained focus to domestic and foreign problems. Hyperbolic communication becomes a substitute for meaningful policy. Iran isn't Venezuela Trump says he’d ‘love not to’ attack Iran, ‘but sometimes you have to’
Finally, tackling the Iran crisis requires building a coalition of allies such as our EU and NATO partners. However, none of Trump's foreign policy endeavors have involved any allies except Israel. Dismissive of the EU and NATO, and International coalitions in general, Trump has charted a "go it alone" policy both in his first and present term as president.
As Thomas Friedman has convincingly argued, much of Trump's policy towards Iran has been influenced by Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli prime minister has manipulated Trump to keep his focus on Iran and not calling the far-right Israeli regime for its ever increasing human rights violation in the West Bank. Here settler terrorists, with the help of the Israeli army, are expelling Palestinians from their land through a policy of ethnic cleansing Netanyahu Plays Trump and American Jews for Fools — Again
Trump policy in Syria In a matter of days after Ahmad al-Sharaa and his militia swopped down from Syria's northwest Idlib Province, Bashar al-Asad's genocidal regime was finally ousted in December 2024. Asad fled to Russia as did many of his henchmen while others decamped in Lebanon and elsewhere in the Arab world.
It wasn't long before Trump began making overtures to Sharaa. US sanctions on Syrian were lifted and al-Sharaa was invited to met with Trump at the White House. Because al-Sharaa is a former al-Qa'ida member, many Syrians are suspicious as to whether his commitment to democracy is genuine.
Having appointed himself president and stocked Syria's ministries with his loyalists, these suspicions have increased. An attack on the Druze minority in southeastern Suwayda Province in April and July 2025 only increased fears that al-Sharaa was no committed to a federal form of government which would respect Syria's minorities. Only air attacks by Israel, which has a significant Druze minority, forced al-Sharaa's forces to end the attacks.
The worst result of al-Sharaa's seizing power. in Syria has been his forces' destruction of the Democratic Autonomous Administration in North and Northeast Syria (DAANES) which is also known as Rojava (the western Kurds). Its military arm, the Syrian Democratic Forces was key to defeating the Islamic State in August 2019. Since then it has been a loyal US ally and assumed the difficult task of guarding over 70,000 Islamic State fighters and their families, primarily in the al-Hol prison in al-Hasaka Province in northeastern Syria.
During the attack on the SDF by al-Sharra's forces, the Trump administration did nothing to intervene. Instead it withdrew 1000 US forces in East and Northeast Syria leaving the SDF to fight on its own. The result has been the capture of 80% of DAANES controlled territory and the demise of what was one of the most significant democratic experiments in the MENA region.
Under DAANES, ethnic diversity has been respected. Northeast Syria is largely dominated by the Kurds, but it also contains large numbers of Arabs and religions, including Sunni and Shi'i Muslims, Yazidis, Christians and Shabak. All of these groups have been able to live peacefully together.
Gender equality has been promoted. In DAANES, all major political bodies must have both a female and male leader. One of DAANES 3 cantons (following the Swiss administrative model) was headed by a female physician, Dr. Heve Mustapha. In addition, so-called "honor crimes" have largely been eliminated and males have been educated as to the brutality of this practice. In short, patriarchal norms and behavior have been addressed and changed for the better.
The DAANES administration has also insisted on pursuing a policy of sustainable development and not taking funds from regional states or political forces. This policy is designed to minimize external political and economic influence and to assure that wealth is distributed equitably among the population.
Remembering that the Asad regime refused to recognize the Rojava Kurds or give them citizenship or title to their land, and that it often seized their property, DAANES was a highly important step forward for Syrians long repressed populace.
However, now that US forces have left the region, and the SDF has been forced to focus on fighting Sharaa's forces, tens of thousands of Islamic State prisoners, fighters and their families, have been able to escape al-Hol. Although the US repatriated some Iraqi and Turkish IS fighters to their respective countries, the 70,000 prison population has now shrunk to between two and three thousand ‘Mass escape’ occurred before IS-linked camp in Syria was closed
Not only has Trump betrayed a loyal ally, who shed much blood for American interests in fighting terrorism, but it has been complicit in allowing the Islamic State to reorganize and open new fronts in central and eastern Syria. Having kept US forces in eastern and northern Syria would precluded the al-Hol prison escape and helped DAANES fend off the attacks by al-Sharaa's forces who would have wanted to avoid conflict with American troops From SNAFU to FUBAR in Northeast Syria
Why has Trump supported the al-Sharaa regime and deserted its Rojava Kurd allies? The answer is pressure from Saudi Arabia. Soon after al-Sharaa gained power, Saudi leader Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS) announced that the kingdom would invest significant amounts of funds in Syria. Clearly this was an effort to prevent Syrian from reverting to Alawite rule which under the Asad regime, had developed close ties to Iran.
Thus, to placate MBS, as well as protect his family business interests in Saudi Arabia, including real estate, A.I. development and World Liberty Financial, his cryptocurrency firm, Trump was willing to sacrifice a staunch ally and set in motion a new threat by the Islamic State. That some of al-Sharaa's forces are still hardened radical Islamists suggests that they may turn on their erstwhile leader in the future in favor of the Islamic State.
Trump policy towards Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates During Muhammad bin Salman's visit to the White House in November 2025, he asked Donald Trump to apply sanctions on the United Arab Emirates. Why did MBS make this request? How a Call From Trump Ignited a Bitter Feud Between Two U.S. Allies
Formally long time allies, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E are currently at loggerheads over the course of the civil war in Sudan. The civil war pits Sudan's army, led by General 'Abd al-Fattah Burhan, against a powerful militia, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), once part of the army, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, (known as Hemedti). While the army controls most of the east of the country, the RSF controls Darfur Province in the west.
The United Arab Emirates has backed the RSF, while Saudi Arabia supports the Sudanese Army. The UAE has provided the RSF with heavy weapons and financial aid despite the militia having been accused of extensive human rights abuses, including the killing of thousands of residents in the city of E l Fasher in Darfur. For the UAE, the RSF represents the ability to gain access to Sudan's gold and other critical minerals. It sees the Sudanese Army infiltrated by Islamists who influence it seeks to limit in the MENA region.
Saudi Arabia views victory by the RSF as leading to creating a failed state in Sudan which would lie just across the Red Sea from its border. Because the Saudis and Emiratis increasingly view each other as competing to become the main power in the Arab Gulf region, it has led to conflict between the two countries, such as recently occurred in southern Yemen which is experiencing considerable instability, where the Saudis and Emiratis backed opposing Yemeni armed factions.
After MBS asked Trump to impose sanctions on the UAE, he called the UAE leadership which were furious to learned of MBS' request, the feud between the two Gulf state powers came out into the open. It was behind the Saudis bombiing of an Emirati shipment to southern Yemen this past December .
The open conflict threatens US interests in the Gulf and efforts to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords with the UAE and Bahrain. It also undermines Trump's efforts to create an A.I.hub which would Saudi Arabia and the UAR each of which want to become powerful high-tech players in the MENA region and beyond. Clearly, Trump was naive that a simple telephone call to the UAE could resolve a complex feud between two powerful Arab states.
As these examples, and the news today that Trump unilaterally took it upon himself, to declare war on Iran shows the danger of having an amateur conduct US foreign policy. His transactional approach, situated within an egotistical belief that he alone can solve the world's problems bodes ill for the future of the United States position in the International order.
As the Arabs say, Rabbina yustur (ربنا يستر): May God protect us!
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