How Jill Stein Poses a Threat to Palestinian Self-Determination and an American Post-Election Progressive Agenda

Jill Stein as a 2015 gala dinner guest of Vladimir Putin

Why is Jill Stein running for president of the United States? Why do we only see her active in national politics at presidential election time? While she claims to be an environmentalist, why is there no website which lists her accomplishments in saving our planet?  

Before answering these questions, let me offer the key arguments I raise: 1) Jill Stein only appears on the national scene during presidential elections; 2) she has not spent time apart from presidential elections building a national movement of environmentally active citizens as her Green Party title would suggest; 3) Jill Stein appears frequently on Russian dictator's Vladimir Putin's RT (Russian Today) propaganda television network, but rarely on appears in American media.

To continue: 4) her political criticism have been directed exclusively at the Biden administration and Democrats, with none directed at Trump; 5) the threat she presents to the Palestinians in Israel's Occupied Territories by helping elect Trump is an existential one which could see them expelled from their ancestral homeland; and 6) her helping Trump win will prevent the implementation of the progressive political agenda for the American middle and working classes which the Harris-Walz administration will enact. Russians launched pro-Jill Stein social media blitz to help Trump win election, reports say

In short, this post suggests that Stein's true motives for entering the 2024 presidential election have more to do with being a spoiler and helping to elect Donald Trump, than the reasons she publicly cites on social media. She disingenuously claims she is trying to break the two party hold on American elections and ending the rule of "corrupt elites." Stein's true goal is to prevent Harris-Walz ticket from winning Michigan and thus acquiring the 270 votes in the Electoral College required to win the presidency.Jill Stein: The Grifter Who May Hand Trump the White House Again

If we examine her campaign, and the Muslim running mate she chose to join her ticket as her vice presidential candidate, it's clear she's trying to prevent Kamala Harris and Tim Walz from winning in the state of Michigan. Because she has been able to get on the ballot in neighboring Wisconsin, she will try and prevent a Harris-Walz victory there as well. Because Stein knows full well that she has no chance of winning the 2024 election, why does she want Trump to win? Trump Allies Have a Plan to Hurt Biden’s Chances: Elevate Outsider Candidates

One doesn't have to believe in conspiracy theories to realize that Stein has close ties to Russian dictator, Vladimir Putin. This has been obvious now for over a decade. Of course, Putin would like Donald Trump to win the 2024 election because he knows the former president admires him and will certainly withdraw US military and financial aid to Ukraine if he beats the Harris-Walz ticket. Stein is part of Putin's effort to influence the 2024 American presidential election to promote his aggressive goals in Ukraine and Europe to recreate a new Soviet Union in the form of a Eurasian "Greater Russia."

How then does Stein pose a threat not only to the Harris-Walz ticket but to a progressive political agenda and the Palestinian attempts at self-determination? First, we need to disabuse ourselves of the idea that Stein's campaign is about breaking the hold of the Democrats and Republicans on elections. 

Stein's goal is not to reform our political system. There is no evidence of her working towards these ends when the United States isn't in a presidential election cycle. If Stein is against the two-party system why is she accepting support from the MAGA movement? GOP-connected super PAC spending to boost Jill Stein in Wisconsin

Second, Stein indicates that she strongly supports the Palestinian cause and the need for the Palestinian people to establish their own independent state. This is a goal which I've been advocating for for over 50 years - the two state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. A two state solution involves Israel and Palestine living side by side in peace and security and, over time, developing ties of economic cooperation and cultural exchanges.  

The two state solution is International law because the United Nations voted to create two states, one Jewish and one Arab, through Resolution 181 of November, 1947, following the end of Great Britain's League of Nations Mandate which ended in 1948. Thus, establishing a Palestinian state is not doing the Palestinians a "favor." Rather it is mandated by International Law. Beyond Historical Amnesia, Revenge and the Good-Evil Binary: Solving the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute Once and For All

But Stein is a "Mary Come Lately" supporter of the Palestinian cause. Reviewing her statements over the past 4 years, we see little to indicate that she has done anything to promote Palestinians' right to self-determination. Instead, her criticisms have been directed exclusively at the Biden administration and the Democratic Party. Nothing she has done during her career indicates any special concern for the Palestinian cause. 

To win votes in Michigan and Wisconsin, where she is trying to have her name placed on the ballot, Stein has recruited Dr. Butch Ware, a professor who teaches history at the University of California at Santa Barbara. Given Ware's West African heritage and Muslim faith, this choice is clearly designed to attract Arab American and Muslim votes as well as those of people of color, especially in Michigan.

Biden won Michigan by 154,000 votes in 2020. There are 220,000 registered Arab American voters in Michigan and, of course, large African American and Muslim demographics. By constantly attacking Biden, and directing none of her criticism at Trump, Stein's strategy is clear. Defeat the Harris-Walz ticket and throw the election to Trump by giving him Michigan's electoral votes, even if he receives a minority of the national popular vote as in 2016.

Who would be most pleased by a Trump victory? Certainly not Palestinians and those who support the Palestinian cause. As POTUS, Trump was a consistent supporter of Israel's far right. The vaunted Abraham Accords were designed to not only make money for the Trump family, including Jared Kushner, but to isolate the Palestinians still further and undermine their efforts to establish an independent state.Kushner Firm Got Hundreds of Millions From 2 Persian Gulf Nation

It is reported that Trump has asked Netanyahu, who visited his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida after his joint speech to Congress this past July, not to agree to ceasefire in Gaza so as not to strengthen the Harris-Walz ticket who he sees benefitting from ending the massive suffering there.

The Trump campaign's largest single contributor, Miriam Adelson, the widow of the late Las Vegas casino mogul, Sheldon Adelson, and Medal of Freedom winner for her contributions to the Trump campaign, has pledged to donate $100 million. Adelson, a dual-national who served in the Israeli army and lives in Israel, is one of the most powerful supporter of far right extremists in Israel. 

For Adelson, as for Israel's far right ultranationalist extremists such as Minsiter of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, and Bezalel Smotrich, Minister of Finance, expelling all Palestinians from East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza (the far right's equivalent to "From the River to the Sea") is the central goal of Israeli politics. GOP megadonor Miriam Adelson to fund colossal super PAC for Trump

If Stein is able to win Michigan for Trump, and Netanyahu and the far right are able to hang on to power, the expulsion of the Palestinians from their ancestral homeland is a forgone conclusion. Israel's far right extremists know that  Trump would do nothing to stop it. Once expelled to Jordan and into the Sinai Peninsula, the Palestinian cause would come to resemble the fate of native North Americans. They would never be able to return to their former homeland. A Clear and Present Danger: How Benjamin Netanyahu Threatens Peace in the Middle East and Global Stability

As of this writing, a poll shows Netanyahu beating his closest rival, former defense minister General Benny Gantz, in national elections by 2 points. By keeping the war going in Gaza, Netanyahu is clawing his way back into Israeli politics after being blamed, rightfully so, for the worst attack on the Jewish people since the Holocaust. Netanyahu has also been blamed for funding HAMAS with millions of Qatari dollars to weaken the Palestine National Authority and thereby prevent the establishment of an independent  Palestinian state ‘Buying Quiet’: Inside the Israeli Plan That Propped Up Hamas

There is another major player who will be delighted if Jill Stein helps defeat the Harris-Walz ticket, namely Vladimir Putin. Putin fears a Harris-Walz victory because he knows they will continue to support for Ukraine after the Russian dictator ordered an unprovoked invasion in February 2022. Ukraine needs United States and Western support as it struggles to prevent Russia from incorporating it into Putin's Greater Russia . Russians launched pro-Jill Stein social media blitz to help Trump win election, reports say

Jill Stein meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to
celebrate 10th anniversary of RT-Russia's propaganda outlet-in 2015

Stein has been on Putin's radar ever since she made her first presidential bid in 2012. While not appearing on American television or other media outlets, Stein has been a frequent guest of Putin's RT (Russia Today) propaganda media outlet. The US Senate launched an investigation after the 2016 election into Stein's ties to Russia. Did Jill Stein Help Elect Donald Trump?  

While Stein claims that the US Senate investigation found nothing illegal in her behavior, that isn't the point. Simply being on the Michigan ballot in 2016 helped defeat Hillary Clinton. She now seeks to do the same to Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in Michigan,Wisconsin and other states. Senate Russia investigators are interested in Jill Stein

Jill Stein is a plant for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. She is exploiting the horrors of the Gaza War which has devastated Palestinian society there and led to the death of over 41,000 Palestinians, the majority women and children. We can and should be critical of Joe Biden for not forcefully preventing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from using American heavy weaponry to turn Gaza into a moonscape.

However, Kamala Harris is the only American political leader who will be able and willing to curb the excesses of Israel's far right extremists.  She has made it clear that she supports a Palestinian state as she did in her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention last week. The two state solution is part of the Democratic Party's official platform, but not part of the GOP's policy agenda. This commitment by the Democrats is the first time ever that an American political party has officially committed to establishing an independent Palestinian state.

As Vice President, it has been Harris who has pushed Biden to bring about an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and provide more civilian aid to starving Palestinians. Her concern with civilian deaths was evident in her speech after meeting Netanyahu in Washington, DC, this past July. Harris told him that Israel has the right of self defense but that it matters "how Israel defends itself."

A vote for Harris is a vote for a POTUS who cares about the American people and will bring justice to the Palestinian cause. Solving the Israel-Palestine dispute will also give Israel the peace it longs for and deserves. As Peter Beinart points out in an excellent essay, Harris can start the peace process by invoking the Leahy Law which makes it illegal to use American weaponry to cause human rights abuses. Harris Can Change Biden’s Policy on Israel Just by Upholding the Law

A vote for Jill Stein is a vote against the Palestinian people, against the American middle and working classes and a vote for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, one a wannabe autocrat, the other a vicious dictator. Green Party's Jill Stein 'refuses' to call Assad, Putin war criminals like Israel's Netanyahu

Presidential Candidate Jill Stein pictured in Moscow’s
Red Square during the RT Anniversary Conference.

Who will Best Serve American and Middle East Interests Following the US Presidential Elections?

One of the most important issues which will confront the next US president is the political instability in the Middle East. Which candidate is up to the job? What crises will she or he face and what policies will the US need to put in play to address them?

Donald Trump When answering these questions, we already have Donald Trump's four year track record in Middle East foreign policy. Trump made some decisive decisions. For example, he ordered the US withdrawal in May 2018 from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or "Iran Nuclear Deal," which sought to slow Iran's development of enriched uranium which could be used to manufacture nuclear weapons.  

Trump was also known for killing Maj. General Qasem Sulemani, head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which is responsbile for organizing and funding pro-Iranian militias in Lebanon, Iraq, and Gaza and protecting Bashar al-Asad's Syrian regime. Sulemani's assassination by a drone strike at the Baghdad airport in January 3, 2020 dealt a major blow to Iran's military establishment.

The Trump administration was best known for the Abraham Accords. This agreement led the United Arab Emirates, Bahrein, Morocco and the Sudan to recognize Israel (in the case of Sudan, in exchange for considerable amount of US funds and debt relief).  The Accords sought to lay the basis for enticing Saudi Arabia to join the accords. The process of establishing Israeli-Saudi diplomatic ties was underway when the brutal HAMAS attack on Israel occurred on October 7, 2023.

Trump moved the United States Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Because Jerusalem remains a contested city, Trump's decision reversed the policy of all prior US presidents since Israel was established in 1948.  Trump's decision helped promote the fortunes of Israel's far right, ultranationalist coalition which now rules Israel, albeit with only a few seat margin in Israel's Knesset (parliament).  

Israel's far right has been arguing for years that Jerusalem belongs entirely to Israel. Thus, Trump's decision strengthened their political position. Those Palestinians, Israelis and American policy-makers who see a two state solution as the only way to solve the Israel-Palestine dispute were completely marginalized during the Trump administration.  

As part of the two state solution, in which Trump showed no interest, Israel and a new Palestinian state would share Jerusalem (West to Israel, East to Palestine) as their mutual capital. However, the Abraham Accords were designed to strengthen Israel's right wing, exclude the Palestine National Authority, and undermine the possibility of an independent Palestinian state. 

However, the real driver behind the Trump administration's Abraham Accords was not creating peace between Arabs and Israelis. In developing the Accords, Trump hoped his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, would use the Accords to generate more investment opportunities for their real estate ventures in the United States and Middle East and eventually open a path to Saudi Arabia's huge sovereign wealth fund and burgeoning real estate market. 

Under Saudi ruler, Muhammad bin Salman's Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia is attempting to diversity its economy and move away from dependence on oil. One avenue of the plan is developing a large tourist industry.  The new tourist sector requires significant investments in infrastructure, e.g., hotels, transportation, restaurants, tourist attractions and domestic and foreign tourist agencies.

That the profit motive was a key factor in the Abraham Accords can be seen by the $200 million the United Arab Emirates invested in Jared Kushner's firm Affinity Partners which was followed by a similar amount by Qatar.  Exiting the White House in 2021, Affinity Partners benefited from $2.5 billion in investments by Persian Gulf states. 

While such wheeling and dealing with foreign governments has occurred in previous administrations after leaving office, the funds Kushner received far exceed those of the past officials. Former Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, also benefitted financially from ties to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. (So much for "draining the swamp.") Kushner Firm Got Hundreds of Millions From 2 Persian Gulf Nations

While Trump devoted relatively little attention to the Middle East, leaving development of the Abraham Accords to Jared Kushner, he did try and withdraw American forces from Northeast Syria.  Despite its small size, roughly 900 troops in all, Trump wanted to save money. Fortunately, he deferred to his generals who argued that US forces in Syria played a critical role in preventing the Islamic State (IS) from reestablishing itself along the Syrian-Iraqi border region.  

Having overseen the killing of the IS' "caliph," Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October 2019, Trump and then President Mike Pence declared that the Islamic State had been defeated. Just like President George W. Bush's declaration of the end of the war in Iraq under a large banner on the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln which said "mission accomplished," this statement was premature. Significant numbers of IS attacks continue to this day in eastern Syrian and north western Iraq.

Finally, we should remember that, in January 2017, Trump imposed his infamous "Muslim ban," which prevented Muslims from from Iraq, Syria, Sudan, Somalia and Yemen from entering the United States. While this ban played well with his political base, it left a very sour taste in the minds of many Muslims in the Arab world.  

Trump's strong support of Benjamin Netanyahu while president, who has been responsbile for appropriating Palestinian land in the West Bank, and the excessively large numbers of Palestinians killed in the Gaza War (40,000 at this writing), has stirred up significant anger in the Middle East.  If Trump is reelected president, many Arab leaders may be reluctant to engage his administration for fear of the negative reaction among their populaces.

In sum, as president, Trump showed little interest in the Middle East or foreign affairs generally.  His foreign policy, when it came into play, was largely transactional and short-term in focus. There was no global vision. His isolationism didn't serve the United States well while he was in office and it won't serve the United States well if he's reelected.

Kamala Harris Vice-President Harris benefits from not having the political baggage of Donald Trump's policies in the Middle East. At the same time, she needs to articulate a positive vision of United States policy in the Middle East both to attract voters in November but also, if elected, to establish quickly, a strong rapport with political leaders and the peoples of the region.

Jim Zogby, a highly respected Arab-American commentator, recently spoke with Harris and commented that she shows much more empathy towards the innocent Palestinians who are being killed in the Gaza War than Biden.  In fact, there has been reporting that she has been responsible for urging Biden to more forcefully express his concerns for civilian deaths and the suffering millions of Gazans are experiencing from a war none of them started.How to Pick Biden’s Replacement? James Zogby & LaTosha Brown Debate Wisdom of an Open Convention

After meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House following his speech to a Joint Session of Congress on July 24th, Harris told him that she supports Israel but that the way in which it defends itself matters. As Vice-President, Harris would usually be expected to chair the Joint Session. However, she said she had prior appointments which prevented her from doing attending Netanyahu's speech.

Kamala Harris will also strongly support NATO, unlike Trump who has shown little interest in US participation in the alliance.  Indeed, Trump might decide to withdraw the US from NATO if reelected.  A strong US hand in NATO has implications for the Middle East. With less US involvement, Turkish president Recip Tayyip Erdogan will feel freer to pursue destabilizing policies which contradict US and European Union goals in the region.  

Erdogan's attacks on the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), one of the few examples of democratic governance in the Middle East, would only intensify if there is a less cohesive NATO devoid of active US participation. Erdogan sees the AANES's focus on gender equality, ethnic diversity and sustainable development as an enticing  model for Turkey's own Kurds who he has marginalized politically and economically. Thus, he seeks to destroy the AANES.

Not only has the Turkish president attacked the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a militarily sophisticated multiethnic force in the AANES, but he has helped the Islamic State in its efforts to reestablish itself in eastern Syria and north central Iraq.  If Trump were elected and removed the existing contingent of US forces in eastern Syria, this would encourage Erdogan's to increase his attacks on the AANES still further which would facilitate the return of the IS.

Harris will continue the NATO policy of strongly supporting Ukraine in its struggle against Putin's invasion which has wreaked havoc on the country. Strong support for Ukraine policy has implications for the Middle East, namely Iran's economic stability.  If Trump were elected and decided to withhold further military and financial support for Ukraine, thus allowing Putin to annex those parts of Ukraine Russian forces have already seized, then Russia would find funds freed to provide further military support for Iran and its nuclear weapons program.

To date, Putin has benefitted form the purchase of cheap Iranian drones which have strengthened Russian forces on the battlefield. In exchange, Russia has supplied Iran with fighter jets and provided technology for building a nuclear reactor which most analysts believe will be used by Tehran to further its nuclear weapons program. If Iran were strengthened, this could have a "domino effect" as Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf states might then turn to China for weapons, fearing lack of US support for their regimes. 

Although it doesn't receive adequate attention, the Middle East is facing the world's worst climate crisis.  Speaking with Egyptian and Iraqi friends and colleagues, they indicate that water is on the minds of everyone. Both Egypt and Iraq are completely dependent for their water supply on two main river systems, the Nile in Egypt and the Tigris and Euphrates in Iraq.  

Both river systems are experiencing problems. In Egypt, these include saline water entering the Nile from the Mediterranean as seawater rises globally as well as possible constraints on Nile water supplies caused by Ethiopia's new Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. 

In Iraq, saline water has entered the Shatt al-'Arab (confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates north of Basra) from rising Persian Gulf waters which has destroyed its storied date trees and crop along the riverbanks. Turkey's damming of the Euphrates River has significantly reduced water flow in the river as have dams constructed in Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government and in Iran reduced water flow in the Tigris.

Having passed the most comprehensive climate legislation of any nation in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration has had its eyes focused on confronting the climate emergency caused by drought, excessive heat and weather events, and wildfires and the air pollution it produces. The Inflation Reduction Act has sped up the transition to Green Energy and the reduction of burning fossil fuels. (Trump has promised to terminate all the climate programs of the Biden administration).

Kamala Harris brings to the presidency the same concern with the existential threat posed climate change as Joe Biden.  She's conversant with details and workings of the Inflation Reduction Act.  As president, I would expect her to focus on the potential conflict caused by water shortages, drought and climate driven migration in the Middle East which will only add to the region's already dangerous level of instability. 

Contra Trump's isolationism, Harris is much more attuned to the intricacies of foreign policy given her experience in a wide variety of high level conferences and meetings with world leaders in all parts of the world. Certainly she understands the need to bring stability to the Middle East. 

Let's not forget that the Syrian Civil War, which is still raging, started with the climate crisis, namely the drought along the Euphrates River in Eastern Syria in the early 2000s which forced large numbers of farmers and their families to leave their villages due to lack of water and proceed westward towards other Syrian cities where they sought government assistance. When that assistance wasn't forthcoming, demonstration broke out and the Bashar al-Asad regime responded with violence against the peaceful demonstrators, leading to armed conflict and a civil war which has displaced half of Syria's population.

Harris is committed to a two state solution to the Israel-Palestine dispute. Once the Gaza War has ended and the Netanyahu government is replaced by a more centrist coalition, there might be an opening for movement towards establishing an independent Palestinian state, especially if the US plays a more active role in supporting security arrangements for both sides once the process is underway.

If Saudi Arabia, which has made progress on establishing ties with Israel contingent on steps towards creating a Palestinian state, then agrees to establish diplomatic relations with Israel, we might see the development of the type of economic cooperation which we saw in embryo in the years after the 1993 Oslo Accords when joint Israeli-Palestinian-Jordanian firms were formed in the communications, real estate and tourism sectors.

Israeli agriculture is well know for its use of drip agriculture and it has made great strides in growing crops in excessive heat. Thus, Israeli technology would be very attractive to its neighbors as the climate crisis in the Middle East intensifies. These ideas may sound like "pie in the sky." However, solving the Palestinian dispute once and for all may turn the Middle East's focus to a greater awareness that the entire region is at a significant risk from the greatest emergency it has faced to date. See my: Beyond Historical Amnesia, Revenge and the Good-Evil Binary: Solving the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute Once and For All 

Solving the Israel-Palestine conflict could facilitate the development of a cooperative approach among the countries of the region to address the climate crisis. Given Kamala Harris' commitment to a robust foreign policy, the United States could play a central role in promoting that approach. Thus, a Harris administration could make a critical contribution to Middle East's development centered around addressing the region's climate crisis.  If that occurred, it would establish an important legacy of Harris' presidency. 

  

How Israel's Settler Movement is Creating a New Generation of Terrorist Youth

Ma'ale Adumim - an illegal settlements in the occupiedWest
Bank where settlers receive a variety of government subsidies 

Much has been said, and rightly so, of HAMAS' brutal terrorism during its October 6, 2023 attack on Israel. But HAMAS terrorists are not the only practitioners of ethnically and religiously based violence. Over the past 3 decades, the West Bank Settler Movement has become ever more strident in pursuing its goal of expelling all Palestinians from the West Bank of the River Jordan. 

Increasingly, the vehicle for this goal for expelling Palestinians from the West Bank is the youth who live in the settlements or are drawn from poor backgrounds. Inspired by the far-right and ultra nationalist ideology of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane's Kach Movement, and the rightward drift of Israeli governments since 2000, especially under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, violence against Palestinians, seizure of their lands and curtailing their rights has increased dramatically. 

Will the West Bank Settler Movement be successful in its efforts to create a "Palestinian rein" West Bank and East Jerusalem? Will the settler movement be able to thwart a peaceful resolution of the Israel-Palestine dispute? These are critical questions being raised by many countries around the world as they seek to promote the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with a shared capital in Jerusalem (the western sector for Israel, the eastern for the Palestinian state).

Complicity - a Two State "Dis-solution" Israel's West Bank settlements began to be constructed soon after the June 1967. Under the Allon Plan (named after then Israeli Minister of Labor, Yigal Allon), settlements were established in East Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley for strategic reasons.  The Jordan Valley was to be annexed and the Etzion Bloc of settlements outside East Jerusalem was meant to shield the city from an Arab attack from the East.

However, the construction of civilian settlements was illegal. Moving citizens into conquered territory is a war crime under the Fourth Geneva Convention. Nevertheless, no Israeli government nor the United States, its closest ally and major funder of foreign and military aid, has committed to ending the establishment of illegal settlements on occupied Palestinian land. 

Thus, 2 states - Israel and the United States - have been complicit in preventing the solving of the Israel-Palestine dispute through a two state solution (as dictated by the United Nations Resolution 181 of November 1947 creating one Arab and one Jewish state in historic Palestine). With the exception of the Trump administration, successive US administrations have supported this outcome verbally, but have done little, beyond expressing dissatisfaction, to prevent the building of further settlements and expansion of existing ones.  

It is true that Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush did withhold military aid in the form of American fighter jets briefly to express dissatisfaction at Israeli policy towards the Palestinian people.  However, these actions were temporary and not part of a long term policy to prevent the expansion of West Bank settlements and establish an independent Palestinian state. 

Jimmy Carter's rightfully lauded Camp David Accords established diplomatic ties between Egypt and Israel.  But the Accords completely excluded any effort to establish a Palestinian state or, at least, shield Palestinians from settlers appropriating their land. Bill Clinton's support of secret negotiations which led to the 1993 Oslo Accords and effort to create a Palestinian state as he was about to leave office in 2000 represent the only instance where an American president sought to create meaningful peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

Israel's shift to the right A major change occurred in 1977 in Israeli politics when the right wing Likud Party ousted the Labor Party which had ruled Israel since 1948.  Whereas the Labor Party had supported settlements in the West Bank for strategic more than ideological reasons - particularly in the Jordan Valley and on the eastern edges of Jerusalem - Likud promoted settlement building explicitly to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.

The so-called Drobles Plan (named after settler and Knesset member, Matityahu Drobles, but also referred to as the Sharon Plan) changed the focus of settlement placement.  Under the guise of increasing Israel's security, the plan was actually intended to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state. 

Likud Party governments began building settlements from north to south in the West Bank in the hilly regions to divide the region and prevent the Palestinians from creating a geographically contiguous nation-state. Bypass roads running from settlements in the East to Israel were closed to Palestinians and further divided the West Bank because Palestinian north-south traffic was forced to travel around them.

Under the Likud, ultra nationalist religious zealots were encouraged to seize Palestinian land because Judea and Samaria, the names drawn from the ancient Israelite kingdoms which were now used to referred to the West Bank, were given to the Jewish people by God.

The development of the Gush Emunim (Bloc of the Faithful) in 1974 created a network of settlements which lobbied for greater support from the state to dramatically increase the number of settlements. The movement took Israel's victory in the June 1967 War as a sign that God desired establishing a Jewish theocracy in the land of Israel (Eretz Yisrael)

Building on the invented religious interpretation of Jewish theology by Rabbi Abraham Yitzhak Kook and his son Rabbi Zvi Yehuda Kook, who argued that the founding of a secular Jewish state of Israel had ushered in a transition to a Messianic state, the Gush Emunim aggressively worked to create new settlements with the goal of eliminating Palestinians from East Jerusalem and the West Bank. (For an analysis of Gush Emunim, see my: Religion Against the State: The Political Economy of Religious Radicalism in Egypt and Israel). 

In the beginning of 2023, there were 144 settlements in the West Bank and a 100 unauthorized "outposts."  The settler movement has grown steadily since Israel's victory in the June 1967 Arab-Israeli War when it seized East Jerusalem, the West Bank, the Golan Heights and the Sinai Peninsula. Settlements have continued to expand through the seizure of Palestinian land.Extremist settlers in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem: Council sanctions four individuals and two entities over serious human rights abuses against Palestinians 

According to B’Tselem, the Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories, an Israel-based observatory of settler violence, settlers have forced at least 18 Palestinian communities — over 1,000 people — to flee their homes since October, 2023. Over 500 Palestinians have been killed. Shocking spike in use of unlawful lethal force by Israeli forces against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank

In addition to building new settlements on land expropriated from Palestinians, settlers have destroyed farm land and homes, and uprooted crops. In this process, youth who live in illegal settlements have become ever more violent.

The idea of establishing local or community-based reserve units — which are known as Hagmar in Hebrew — reflects a long-standing Israeli security strategy. Since its establishment, Israel has operated under the notion of lacking "strategic depth," as it has a small population size and limited resources while being surrounded by hostile forces Civilians or Soldiers? Settler violence in the West Bank

Who are the extremist youth? The Hill Top Youth (Noar Ha-Gava'ot) have been in the forefront of establishing illegal settlements on the tops of hills in the West Bank in densely populated Palestinians areas.  A loose coalition of groups, it is led by Tova Kahane, (Meir Kahane's daughter) and Rabbi Mordechi Ettinger, a settler extremist whose actions have led him being barred from the West Bank.

The goal of extremist groups like the Hill Top Youth (referred to by former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and other Israeli officials as terrorists) is to create a Greater Israel which is devoid of all but its Jewish population. Their extreme religious nationalist ideology is driven by extremist rabbis who assert that all Palestinians must be removed from Israel or killed. 

Although difficult to estimate the exact number of "Hill Top Youth," a 2009 report indicated 800 core members with 5,000 supporters.  Some youth are recruited from hardscrabble neighborhoods in Jerusalem and taken to "rehabilitation centers" in the West Bank.  There they are encouraged to engage in anti-Palestinian violence. With Israel in turmoil, its ‘lost boys’ are helping stoke extreme right-wing nationalism

The Hill Top Youth have created numerous encampments. On many occasions, these encampments have been dismantled by the Israeli army.  However, in many other cases, the encampments or outposts were eventually approved by the Israeli government and thus became legitimate settlements in the eyes of the state (although still illegal under international law).

Another extremist organization is Lehava ("Flame," but also an acronym for LiMniat Hitbolelut B'eretz HaKodesh: Prevention of Assimilation in the Holy Land). An offshoot of Meir Kahane's Kach Party, it is active in Israel in fighting assimilation, inter-faith marriages and preventing all relations between Jews and Arabs, whether personal or professional.  While more active in Israel proper, it has been active in trying to oust Arabs from East Jerusalem. ‘Break Their Faces’: As anti-Arab Attacks Spike, Jewish Supremacist Group Plans Jerusalem Show of Force 

What are the"price-tag" attack on Palestinians in the occupied territories The Hill Top Youth claim by terrorist youth that Palestinians living on Jewish land, i.e., in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, must pay a price for residing there. This idea developed after Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip in 2005 and dismantled 18 settlements there.

The Hill Top Youth conduct attacks which have destroyed olive trees (which take 40 years to bear fruit) and crops, and burned cars and homes. They have also intimidated Palestinians, especially farmers living in remote areas far from Palestinian cities and towns. A Bitter Season in the West Bank

Palestinian cars destroyed by a Hill Top Youth
"price-tag"attack near the city of Ramallah

Although only one fatality, a 3 year old Palestinian girl killed in in 2012, had been documented before HAMAS brutal attack on October 7, 2023, the number of Palestinians on the West Bank who have been killed since the Gaza War began has risen sharply, especially after far right Minister of National Security and agent provocateur, Itamar Ben Gvir, distributed 10,000 rifles to West Bank settlers. Ben Gvir made clear that violence against Palestinians woud not bring a government response.

The seizure of hilltops in densely populated Palestinian areas and the "price-tag" attacks are meant to place more stress on the Israeli military (IDF) and security forces serving in the West Bank. The Hill Top Youth reject the Israeli state and the IDF. They want to tear down the entire secular structure of the Israeli state and society and replace it with a theocratic, authoritarian state (much like radical Islamists who have organized in Muslim majority countries such as Egypt and Syria).IDF freezes operations of ‘hilltop youth’ unit linked to anti-Palestinian violence.

As for the new Israeli state, it would follow the dictates of the radical Rabbis who guide the extremist youth groups, such as Rabbis Yitzhak Shapira and Yitzhak Ginzburg in the most violently anti-Palestinian settlement, Yizhar, near the Palestinian city of Nablus. 

In Yizhar, yeshivas (religious seminaries), such as Od Yosef Chai (Joseph Still Lives), teach extremist ideology to youth in the settlement. In 2013, settlers destroyed Palestinian homes to expand Yizhar while IDF forces protected them. State-sponsored Vigilantism: Jewish Settlers’ Violence in the Occupied Palestinian Territories

From Labor Zionism to terrorist violence When Israel was founded in May 1948, its political system was based on an uneasy balance between a left leaning collectivist and secular Zionism, embodied in two political parties, the Labor Party (MAPAI) and MAPAM, and religious Zionism, led by the National Religious Party (MAFDAL).

This accommodation, in which Labor Party governments controlled security and defense, and religious party leaders controlled education and personal status law, was overturned in the 1977 parliamentary elections when the right wing Likud Party ended Labor Party's political hegemony. Led by Menachem Begin, head of the terrorist Irgun Zvai Leumi (National Military Organization) which was founded in the 1930s, the Likud coalition, reflecting a right wing, ultra nationalist Zionism, now ruled Israel. 

Begin was a follower of Ze'ev Jabotinsky (1860-1940), the founder of Revisionist Zionism and an admirer of Mussolini. The Irgun attacked British and United Nations officials in Palestine prior to Israel's founding. It was responsible for the bombing of the King David Hotel in Jerusalem in July1946. Begin ordered the attack because the hotel's south wing contained the British civilian administration of Palestine. The bombing killing 91 people. 

The rise of Likud produced a dramatic expansion of settlements in the West Bank. More settlements led to the rise of settler political movements such as Gush Emunim (and Amana, its settler arm).  Over time, settler politics became more extreme, e.g., with the rise of Kach and the Kahane movement. Extremist clerics and settler activists radicalized youth, especially those in settlements.  The Hill Top Youth, and the affiliated gangs it spawned, are the result.

As we see among radical Islamists and Christian nationalist, what they call secularism is the font of all that's wrong with the world today. Democracy must be abolished, along with the institutions which support it.  A false God will be called upon to decide society's future (as defined by the interpretation of self appointed interpreters of divine messages and injunctions).

Numerous Israelis, including politicians from the center-left, journalists, progressive political activists, members of the peace camp and academics, have been arguing since the 1970s that Israel cannot be rule occupied lands and the people who live there and remain a democracy.  We now see that their prognosis is on its way to coming true. 

(For the latest analysis of the West Bank Palestinians and the problems they confront, see Nicholas Kristof, A Message From the West Bank: ‘We Are Coming to Horrible Days’, New York Times, June 29, 2024, and, Adam Rasgon and Fatima AbdulKarim,  The Huge, Under-the-Radar Shift Happening in the West Bank, New York Times, May 8, 2025

It's the Palestinian State, Stupid!

Many of us remember James Carville's mantra, "It's the economy, stupid!," which helped Bill Clinton win the US presidency in 1992. Carville's slogan was somewhat simplistic but nevertheless effective because it touched on the core concerns of voters at the time. Carville's logic can be applied to the Israel-Palestine conflict. Just as Carville knew a focus on the economy could win the 1992 elections, so too can the establishment of a Palestinian state solve the current crisis.

Although the struggle between Israelis and Palestinians has been ongoing for over a century, there is a simple solution.  It's called "an Independent Palestinian state."  If the Palestinians could establish their own state, living side by side with Israel inn peace and security, this would provide the basis for finally ending the Conflict between the two peoples.  

Let's begin with three basic assumptions. If Israel refuses to allow the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, then it will face a "Forever War." Because time and international support are not on its side, it would ultimately lose this war.  Second, Palestinians must renounce violence, whether by HAMAS and any other terrorist organization. Violence, especially the deaths it causes, will never create a Palestinian state. It only undermines that end by eroding trust among Israelis that Palestinians are serious about achieving a peaceful solution to the Conflict. 

Third, once two states have been established, there will need to be the creation of a large network of economic and institutional ties. When I was in Israel and the West Bank in the summer of 1980, I was impressed how Israeli and Palestinian women's organizations had established an educational programs which were attracting 1500 women from both communities each year.  

At the start of each program, both sides were give one and a half hours to presen their hiatocial narrtive with no interruption allowed by the other side  

As promulgated United Nations Resolution 181 of November 1947, two new states were to be created in historic Palestine - one Jewish and one Arab.  While the Jewish people established Israel, Palestinians, many of whose families had lived in historic Palestine for centuries, failed to achieve the right of legitimate self determination.

For such as state to become a reality, we need forst and foremost to challenge the would-be hegemonic view of the Conflict as on of "ancient hatreds" and a "forever war." We need to remember that arch enemies can become friends, such as Germany and France after wars that began in the 1870s and ended in 1945, and the German, French and Italian Swiss, who were once mortal enemies but live together in security and prosperity. 

Who can develop the counter-hegemony which creates public opinion support for a two state solution to the Conflict?  The key here is generational.  It is the "generation in waiting," namley Israelis and Palestinian youth who refuse to grow up in a context of continued tit-for-tat violence.  Only when a large youth movement, such as the anti-Vietnam War and Civil Rights movements in the United States, the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, and the global anti-Apartheid movement which ended white only rule in South Africa can the Conflict be solved.

As many analysts have noted, the Israeli peace movement is currently at a low point. Unlike many advanced Western nations-states, the younger generation leans heavily to the right while the older generation is more on the left.  Given the brutality of HAMAS' October 7th attack, there is a strong streak of revenge coursing though Israeli society which makes the discussion of peace a non-starter at the current moment. The View Within Israel Turns Bleak

Still, it is not in the interest of either Israeli youth or their Palestinian counterparts to live a life in which war and conflict are a ubiquitous part of life.  For this reason, one of the most important foundations to support a two-state solution is for the network of Israeli peace organizations to become strengthened through foreign support, particularly financial, to allow these groups to better coordinate their activities to bring about a peaceful solution to the Conflict.

Founded in 1949, and closely associated then with the now defunct MAPAM Party, Givat Haviva (Haviva's Hill) is named after Haviva Reik who was a Jewish resistance fighter against the Nazis in Eastern Europe before she was killed.  The organization provides a large number of services to Israel's Palestinian citizens and pushes for peace through its Center for Peace Studies. Hebrew Language and the Young Generation in Arab Society Conference

Given its important standing in Israel, Givat Haviva must take a more direct role in pushing for a two state solution.  Its Board of Directors includes few Israelis of Palestinian heritage. Adding more respected Palestinian Israeli members to its leadership would give it more legitimacy in its effort to develop a more powerful peace camp in Israel and expand its connections to Palestinians in the Occupied Territories. 

Another important effort must be the development of greater coordination of Jewish peace organizations and activists organizations within the Palestinian Israeli community.  One of the most powerful Palestinian Israeli organization is al-Adalah (Justice in Arabic) which advocates for the rights of the Palestinian Israeli minority.

al-Adalah works closely with the Israeli Jewish peace camp and has the opportunity to strengthen ties between Israel's Palestinian and Jewish populations.  In addition, through Israel's Palestinian citizens, al-Adalah can promote greater ties with Palestinians on the West Bank and, once HAMAS is not longer in power, with Gaza as well.  An important initiative in linking Jew, Israeli Palestinian's and Palestinians in the West Bank is to promote the development of a powerful violent movement for the rights of Palestinians in the West Bank and a two state solution ‘Where Is the Palestinian Gandhi?

Another important player in the peace process is ALLMEP (Alliance for Middle East Peace).  Founded by Avi Meyerstein in 2003, it includes 150 organizations in Israel which are working for a peaceful solution to the Conflict. That ALLMEP has raised millions of dollars in funding to date demonstrates that it will continue to be an important component in a process to create a two state solution to the Conflict which will become ever more salient once the Gaza War ends. Pope Francis signs ALLMEP's letter to G7 Heads of State

Iran and the New Axis of Evil: Why the Tehran Regime Must Be Toppled

Iran's Sajjil-2 ballistic missile

In the wake of HAMAS' October 7, 2023, terrorist attack on Israel, the Middle East is facing a period of even greater instability. While it's difficult to imagine that conditions in the region could worsen, the attack's aftermath points to a level of conflict which could not only engulf the Middle East but extend far beyond it. Who is primarily responsible for this dangerous escalation of regional and possibly global conflict?

While HAMAS would be identified by most observers, the answer is actually the so-called Islamic Republic of Iran. The Tehran regime has spent its financial, political and military capital to extend its regional influence. Without its arming of HAMAS and training its fighters, even conducting such training in Iran, HAMAS wouldn't have been emboldened to attack Israel. Iran's missile attack on Israel on April 13, 2023 demonstrates that conflict between the two states could lead to a regional war.

This post argues that Iran has become such a rogue state that it is time for the United States, its allies and the international community which supports a stable international order to move aggressively to cripple and eventually topple the Tehran regime. The four plus decades since the 1978-79 Iranian Revolution has given the Tehran regime ample time to prove that it is willing to become respected nation-state in the MENA region. Based on its consistent destabilizing actions, the time for it to achieve such a status has long since passed.

The so-called Islamic Republic contributes nothing positive to the MENA region. Its goal is to destroy Israel, eliminate the United States' presence in the Middle East, place countries such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen under its control and become the region's superpower.  To accomplish these ends, the Tehran regime has pursued four strategies. 

First, it is actively working to develop nuclear weapons and a ballistic missile system with which to deliver these weapons.  Despite repeated efforts by the international community to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons, including sanctions and cyber attacks on the centrifuges designed to produce weapons grade plutonium, Iran continues to press ahead with their development.

Second, Iran has established a vast network of militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Gaza to help it enact its foreign policy goals by surrounding Israel and the US' Arab allies with its proxies. By training and funding militias, and recently providing them with increasingly sophisticated missiles, Iran can allow these proxies to do its regional "dirty work," thereby escaping responsibility for their actions and an attack on its own territory.

Third, Iran has strengthened its ties with Russia, China and North Korea, all of which are regimes pursuing foreign policies designed to weaken the United States and its allies, and disrupt the rule-based international order. As these ties grow ever stronger, it is no exaggeration to speak of a new "Axis of Evil."

In 2022, Iran began delivering its Shahed 136 suicide drones to help Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.  Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces were sent to Russia to train military personnel on the use of these drones.  Russia in turn has been supplying Iran with extensive weapons systems including fighter aircraft. It also is indirectly assisting Iran develop nuclear weapons by assisting in the construction of a nuclear power plant, ostensibly for national energy production. Timeline: Iran-Russia Collaboration on Drones 

Finally, the regime has used its significant oil wealth to fund its efforts to become the Middle East's dominant power. The regime has created a number of so-called foundations (bonyad) which supply it with an unlimited source of funds for its nefarious aims. Meanwhile, Iranian society suffers from the lack of investment as infrastructure and municipal services decay and unemployment rises.  However, any dissent of regime policies results in a brutal response  Iran: Security Forces Rape, Torture, Detainees

Iran finds support for its policy in the MENA region which is replete with authoritarian and unsavory regimes. These regimes have evoked negative responses from their populaces which has allowed Iran to exploit the resulting instability.  

For example, the tumult created by Benjamin Netanyahu's far right government, the most extreme in Israel's history, in trying to eliminate the power of the Supreme Court, led to months of weekly protests by hundreds of thousands of Israelis to prevent it from eliminating all checks on the power of Israel's unicameral legislature, the Knesset. Had this policy become law, it would effectively put Israel on the road to becoming a theocratic autocracy.  

That many reservists, the bulk of the Israeli army, refused to report for training in protest of Netanyahu's policy to strip the Supreme Court of its powers, is said to have been a key element in HAMAS' decision to attack Israel. HAMAS sensed weakness in Israeli society and its armed forces. Iran's training of HAMAS militants shows its complicity in the October 7th terrorist attack which the Tehran regime has lauded.

As long as bad "neighborhood effects"- namely authoritarian and repressive regimes - persist, Iran's destabilizing policies will find fertile soil. Syria's Bashar al-Asad has used chemical weapons against his own citizens seeking democracy and killed thousands of Syrians, displacing almost half the country's population. Recip Tayyip Erdogan considers HAMAS terrorists "freedom fighters, has imprisoned large numbers of journalists and bombed the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES)' democratic experiment in Northeast Syria because it's controlled by Kurds.

In Egypt, 'Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi has filled Egyptian jails with anyone who expresses dissent against his regime, even mild social media posts. The Sudanese civil war which pits army chief 'Abd al-Fattah Burhan against the Rapid Support Forces, led by Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, has caused the deaths of over 15,000 civilians. Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right regime, with its cavalier approach to the October 7, 2023 HAMAS terrorist attack, has left over 35,000 Gazans dead, the vast majority innocent of any hostile acts towards Israel. 

Hizballah has contributed to Lebanon becoming a failed state through its attacks on Israel and corrupt activity.  Its control of Beirut's port was one of the causes of the tremendous explosion which rocked the port of Beirut in 2019, leaving an estimated 40% of the population in poverty. Hizballah had prevented an inspection of the warehouse which held the massive amount of fertilizer which exploded, causing massive destruction and many deaths in Beirut. 

Nevertheless, Hizballah remains the most powerful political and military force in Lebanon. It constitutes Iran's most important defense.  Should Israel decide to mount a serious attack on Iran, it can expect Hizballah to send its more than 150,000 missiles, many of which are technologically sophisticated, to reign down on Israel, overwhelming its Iron Dome and other air defenses.

Strategic Ambiguity: Cutting off weapons supplies One of the most important foci in confronting the Tehran regime must be the interdiction of Iranian weapons to their militia proxies. Air attacks on convoys of Iranian weapons passing through Syria on their way to Hizballah must intensify. Efforts must be made to ensure that weapons, especially missiles, aren't delivered to Hizballah though Beirut's port. 

Attacks on Iranian weapons supply lines should be done surreptitiously, just as Iran carries out much of its aggressive actions unannounced.  To the extent to which the flow of weapons into Syria can be significantly reduced, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps forces in Syria will be weakened as well as Hizballah's military capacities. A network of informers can provide intelligence on the manner in which weapons are shipped though Iraq to Syria can be identified. Denial or Punishment? The U.S.-Israel Debate About How Best to Deter Iran

In Iraq, Shi'a militias controlled by Iran dominate the economy and wield powerful political influence. Iran uses its proxy forces to intimidate the Iraqi government. Although it hasn't been able to expel US forces which train the Iraqi military in counter-terrorism strategies, Iran's goal is to force the US to withdraw from Iraq. FinCEN Finds Iraq-based Al-Huda Bank to be of Primary Money Laundering Concern and Proposes a Rule to Combat Terrorist Financing 

Preventing Iran from circumventing UN sanctions Iran uses Iraq to circumvent international sanctions imposed by the United Nations as a result of its development of nuclear weapons programs.  Many "banks" have been established in Baghdad whose sole function is to launder US dollars sent to Iran. With US corporations investing in Iraq's oil sector, and its troops playing a critical role in preventing a resurgence of the Islamic State in north central Iraq, a withdrawal by US forces would jeopardize critical investments for the country's economic and infrastructure development. Iraq Bans 8 Banks From Dollar Trade To Curb Smuggling To Iran

Undermining the strength of Yemen's Houthi rebels One of Iran's most dangerous gambits is financing yet another military force, namely the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen. The Houthis control most of Yemen and, through their violent activities, have intensified the country's civil war which has created a desperate humanitarian crisis. To date, over 377,000 have been killed by the fighting and many thousands more displaced from their homes. The War on Yemen's Civilians 

The Houthis have been attacking shipping near the Bab al-Mandab entrance to the Red Sea as well as vessels in the Arabian Sea south of Yemen. While the ostensible justification for these attacks is to support HAMAS by preventing ships from reaching Israel, the Houthis have attacked many cargo ships not carrying goods or supplies to Israel.

The United States has organized Operation Prosperity Guardian which comprises a task force of naval vessels from  the United Kingdom, Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands. While the task force has intercepted Houthis missiles and drones, and seized some weapons being shipped by sea to the rebels, it needs to more effectively thwart Houthi attacks though more intensive inspection of maritime traffic off the Yemeni coast. 

Most important in this regard is cutting off the Houthi weapons supplies from Iran. Without a refurbishing of missiles and drones, the Houthis would be unable to continue their disruption of shipping through the Red Sea which constitutes 12% of the world's global trade.

Already the United States has transferred weapons seized from the Houthis to Ukraine. The more weapons that can be seized, the better off global supply lines will be as the Houthis' ability to use their attacks to recruit more Yemeni youth to their cause will be reduced. Yemen: Houthis Recruit More Child Soldiers Since October 7 Exploiting Israel-Palestine Hostilities to Expand Its Forces  

Undermining Iran's nuclear weapons program. Clearly, the greatest threat Iran poses not just to the MENA region but to the larger international community is its development of nuclear weapons. In the past, the United States and Israel have used cyber warfare to disrupt Iran's program.  Now that much of Iran's nuclear program has been located far underground, the focus should shift to preventing Iran from developing the ballistic missiles which could be used to militarily deploy a nuclear warhead.

Keeping in mind Israel's threat of a preemptive strike on Iran should it finalize developing a nuclear weapon, especially if it also possesses the missiles which could be used to strike other countries, the United States needs to mobilize an international coalition to prevent the potential for a regional war in the Middle East. In light of the Tehran regime's increasingly close ties with Russia and China, such a war could spread beyond the MENA region.

Using cyber warfare to disrupt missile launches, and even targeting such missiles once test fired, should be considered as part of a strategy to prevent the Middle East from reaching the precipice of what could be a catastrophic military conflagration.

International sanctions must be kept in place, and indeed intensified. However, sanctions alone will not deter Iran from continuing to pursue policies which seriously destabilize the MENA region. United States policy must be accompanied by an intensive public relations campaign designed to put the Tehran regime on the defensive.  The UN Security Council is one venue where such a public realtions campaign should be waged. The Tehran regime's reckless regional adventurism and repressive domestic policies must be kept on constant display in the eyes of the international community. 

ISIS-K's Attack Underscores the Interdependence of Cross-Regional Violence and the Folly of Putin's Rule

Four Alleged Tajik assailants in Russian court, Mar 23, 2024

The March 22nd ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) attack on the Crocus Concert Hall in the Moscow suburb of Krasnogorsk not only indicated that the Islamic State group is alive and dangerous but underscores the increasing interdependence of violence extremism across multiple regions of the world.  At first glance, it  might be asked why the Islamic State attacked an entertainment venue near Moscow.  A deeper look shows that Russia is increasingly in the cross hairs of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State.

Russia's support for Syrian dictator Bashar al-Asad over the past decade has created intense anger among terrorist groups seeking to overthrow his highly repressive Ba'thist regime. Asad has used chemical weapons against his own people and his security services are infamous for the severity of the torture they inflict on real and supposed enemies of the regime. 

The Islamic State groups deeply resent Russia for propping up the Iranian regime which played a central role in destroying the Islamic State so-called Caliphate headquartered in Raqqa, Syria. Russia is supplying Iran with fighter aircraft in exchange for its cheap Shahed drones which enables Putin'a military to attack Ukrainian forces and and infrastructure.  

Deep hostility to Putin's regime extends back to its brutal suppression of an uprising by Chechens seeking greater local autonomy which began after the collapse of the USSR in 1991 but was not completely suppressed until 2017.  In repressing the Chechen insurgency, Russia completely destroyed Grozny, the capital city of the region.  Resentment of Russia can be traced even earlier
to the USSR's almost decade long invasion of Afghanistan during the 1980s. 

Grozny, Chechnya's capital, after Russia's 1999-2000 assault 

Adding the Tehran regime's critical role in propping up the Asad regime, we see why ISIS-K not only attacked Russia but also Iran.  On January 3, 2024, large numbers of Iranians had gathered at the grave of former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, Qasem Solimani, in his hime town of Kerman to commemorate his death by an American drone strike in January 2020. Suicide bombers from ISIS-K detonated two devices during the ceremony killing 94 mourners and wounding 284 others.

ISIS-K became particularly infamous in the West for its attack on the Kabul Airport during the evacuation of Afghans in the summer of 2021. The bombing killed 13 US soldiers and 170 Afghans gathered at the airport, leading the US government to place a $10 million bounty of the terrorist organization's leader, Sanalluh Ghafari.

What is ISIS-K? The Islamic State-Khorasan Province developed in the 2010s. It is largely comprised of members who broke away from radical Islamic groups in Pakistan, such as Tehrik e-Taliban, and the Afghan Taliban. Despite being most active in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the group has shown its far reach as the Moscow attack demonstrates. In 2010, it convinced an American citizen of Pakistani heritage, Faisal Shazad, to attempt to detonate a bomb in New York City's Times Square.

ISIS-K views the ancient region of Khorosan as the site for a new "Caliphate."  This differs, of course, from the region which the Islamic State (originally the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant/Syria or ISIL) declared to be the new Caliphate in large series of Syria and north central Iraq.  Indeed, ISIS-K has benefitted from the destruction of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.  Its claim that Khorosan should be the site of the new Caliphate. 

Clearly, the moniker, "Islamic State," has become a terrorist brand.  A terrorist group can spring up in any part of the world and claim to be an Islamic State affiliate. This is exactly what ISIS-K has done. However, this proliferation of Islamic State groups also contains the seeds of internal conflict. ISIS-K has moved the proposed future Caliphate from Arabic speaking lands to those in "Khorosan" which speak Central Asian languages. Its prominence as the leading Islamic State terrorist organization is bound to create resentment among terrorists in the now defunct Iraq-Syria group and their Arab supporters .

Russia finds itself in a new and difficult position. Having lost a large number of soldiers fighting in Putin's ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine between 290,000 and 460,00 men), originally conceived as a short and easy victory, Russia is facing a man-power shortage.  Even before the war began, migrants from Central Asian republics, such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, have provided menial labor in Russian cities for jobs Russians don't want to do. The Russian Interior Ministry has said that there are 10.5 million workers Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan currently in the country. How Many Russian Soldiers Have Died in Ukraine?

Migrants from Central Asia receive sub-standard wages, are looked down upon, and often treated badly by the police and security forces. That these migrants resent such treatment, and thus would be susceptible to recruitment by terrorist groups such as ISIS-K is understandable. 

Central Asian migrants' ability to travel visa-free and easily acquire work permits in Russia, and the lack of employment opportunities in their home countries, are the main incentives to work in Russia.  However, working conditions are only becoming worse after the Crocus Concert Hall attack.  In the wake of the Crocus Concert Hall attack, conditions have become even more difficult, especially for Tajiks who have been threatened and attacked. 

Putin views himself as a latter day Peter the Great ruling a new EurAsian global order

Putin's grand scheme for a new world order under the doctrine of EurAsianism constitutes pie in the sky. This vision, which situates  Russia as the centerpiece of in a new regional bloc designed to challenge Western global hegemony, seems like pie in the sky. The Russian military assured Putin that the invasion of Ukraine would last a week, that the Zelensky government in Kyiv would easily be toppled and that Ukraine made once again become part of Mother Russia.  Obviously, Putin's general staff grossly underestimated Ukrainian forces and the will of Ukrainians not to allow Russia to force their country to be annexed by a latter day Soviet Union. Putin’s ‘Eurasian’ fixation reveals ambitions beyond Ukraine

If the Russia's military doesn't meet credible standards, the same can be said of its security services led by the FSB.  Not only did it fail to prevent the Crocus Concert Hall massacre, it likewise failed to warn Putin of the June 23 rebellion when units of Yevgeny Prigozhin's private mercenary army, the Wagner Group, marched on Moscow in an attempt to remove the Minister of Defense and the army Chief of Staff for purported incompetence in the Ukraine War.

To be fair, Russia's security services are stretched thin as a result of Putin's paranoia in seeing an enemy behind every tree and his categorization of countless groups as traitors, e.g., independent journalists, members of Russia's LGBTQ+ community and Jehovah's Witnesses, many of whom have been imprisoned.

Where does the Crocus Concert Hall attack leave Putin? Russia's manpower shortage will only grow as the Ukraine War grinds on. The Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Economics found Russia lacking 4.8 million workers in 2023, who are key to the construction, transportation and retail sectors. With a xenophobic anti-immigrant campaign underway after the attack, egged on by Russian neo-Nazis, efforts are being made to boycott Tajik restaurants, taxis and other migrant provided services.

If such hostility spreads, it will cause many Central Asian workers to return home, further undermining the Russian economy.  Such a development would seem to favor the recruitment of more terrorists to ISIS-K whose message that Russia seeks to eradicate the Islamic religion will resonate more strongly.

Authoritarians such as Putin are often shrewd in centralizing political power in the short term. However, their egos, which are nurtured by loyalist supporters, causes them to make decisions which ultimately bring down their regimes. Putin is now facing several crises, not just the war in Ukraine and more terrorist attacks. He must worry that Russians no longer view him as capable of providing iron-clad security, as the Wagner Group and the Crocus Concert Hall attacks indicate. Putin must also worry that those surrounding him may feel that his time as Russia's leader has reached its productive end. Central Asian migrants face xenophobic backlash in Russia after Moscow terror attack