The 2021 MENA Region Dictator of the Year Award جائزة دكتاتور العام في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا لعام 2021

As 2021 draws to a close, it is clear that authoritarian rule will continue to dominate most of the countries of the MENA region. Given the durability of authoritarian rule in the region, it seems appropriate to recognize those dictators who have been able to cling to power with an award.  Thus, The New Middle East begins a tradition of ending each year with the MENA Region Dictator’s Award. 

What criteria should be used when bestowing this award?  Obviously, the degree of repression that a dictator brings to bear on the population he rules is a paramount criterion (and let us not forget that authoritarianism is a strictly male phenomenon in the MENA region).  This repression should not only be evaluated contemporaneously but diachronically as well.  Namely, how long has the dictator been able to sustain his repression? 

A second criterion is the extent to which the dictator is not only able to repress his countrymen but exercise a negative impact on MENA region areas beyond the nation he rules. To what extent has his dictatorial rule helped spread authoritarianism, and its accompanying repression, beyond his country’s borders? 

 

A third criterion is the special gifts that a dictator brings to his form and style of repressive rule. What is it about the dictator that makes his rule unique?  In other words, what creativity has the dictator exhibited in keeping the nation he rules under his control? In what ways has his actions enhanced the intimidation of the populace so that they don’t challenge his rule? 

 

A fourth criterion is the degree to which the dictator has been able to use corruption and nepotism to strengthen his rule.  A shrewd dictator realizes that force and intimidation are in themselves not an adequate basis for long-term rule.  The ability to steal from the public purse and use this theft for political ends is a key component of any true dictator’s playbook. 

Finally, to what extent has the dictator been able to recruit and mobilize support from nations outside the MENA region?  Clearly, most dictators in the region have been able to use foreign military, financial and diplomatic support to consolidate their rule.  Thus, a successful dictator must be able to enlist foreign benefactors in exchange for providing them with services.  Such services can include military bases, intelligence sharing, privileged investment opportunities and the use of the country for military maneuvers. 

One of the problems in making the 2021 MENA Region Dictator’s Award is the great number of repressive rules from which to choose.  To avoid discriminating between dictators, The New Middle East has decided to make the award to 5 dictators.  In first place is Syria’s Bashar al-Asad.  Second place goes to Iran’s Ebrahim Raisi.  The third-place winner is Egypt’s ‘Abd l-Fattah al-Sisi.  Following in fourth place is Saudi Arabia’s Muhammad bin Salman while fifth place is awarded to Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

How then were the awards decided?  In the case of the first-place winner, Bashar al-Asad is one of the few leaders in the Middle East or elsewhere to oversee the destruction of his country and its descent into chaos and anarchy and still maintain his power and that of his family and hangers on.  Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have been killed since the Arab Spring Uprisings began in 2011 and it is estimated that half of Syria’s population has been dislocated. 

One of Bashar’s shrewdest strategic moves was to release terrorist from prison once the Syrian populace began its demands for democracy.  As he knew, these former prisoners took up arms against the regime allowing it to portray the Syrian conflict as one of radical Islamist terrorism against regional stability, rather than democracy against authoritarianism.  This move was important in mobilizing Arab and international support for Bashar’s regime, and also critical to sustaining the loyalty of the Syrian Army and state security services. 

Ebrahim Raisi is infamously known in Iran as “the hanging judge.”  In 1988, he was one of 4 members of a regime committee which sent thousands of Iranian dissidents to the gallows.  Of course, he has never had to pay the price for his role in these massive executions which rise to the level of crimes against humanity. 

Raisi spent several years inn control of one of the many state “foundations” (bonyad) which are repositories for Iran’s oil wealth.  The corrupt clerical elite draws upon these funds with no accountability.  Thus, while the Iranian economy suffers from international economic sanctions related to its nuclear weapons program and efforts to destabilize Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen and the Arab Gulf, Raisi and the Iranian political elite want for nothing and enjoy comfortable lives. 

 

Although only elected president last August, Raisi has been a core actor in the so-called Islamic Republic since the toppling of the Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi in late 1978 and early 1979. A consistent hardliner, he has blood on his hands not just from the “hanging campaign” of 1988, but the repression of dissent in Iran, the killing of protestors who have contested elections, e.g., in 2009, and enticing dissidents to return from abroad after which they have been tried, imprisoned and even executed. 

Iran still seeks to erase the ‘1988 prison massacre’ from memories, 25 years on

Raisi has adopted a hard line on reinstating the JCPOA, the international agreement to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. While it was a grave mistake for Donald Trump to withdraw the US from the agreement, Raisi's hard line on reinstating the accord threatens to create a MENA region nuclear arms race if the negotiations fail. If Iran subsequently develops such weapons, it might prompt Israel to attack Iran, unleashing serious regional and international instability.

Number three on our list is Egyptian President ^cAbd al-Fattah al-Sisi.  In June 2013, the Egyptian Army overthrew the only democratically elected president, Muhammad Mursi, since the Egyptian July 22^nd 1952, Revolution (coup d’etat). Mursi was a feckless Islamist who tried to strengthen the position of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, a policy rejected by the majority of Egypt’s population. Still, the Army did not seek a new election but rather imposed a new repressive regime. 

Since taking power, the al-Sisi regime has imposed the most oppressive rule since the army seized power in 1952.  With no access to Egypt’s notorious jails and so-called “security camps,” Egyptian and foreign journalists have great difficulty in obtaining information on the hundreds of human rights and civil society activists, as well as journalist and other critics of the regime. 

However, an insight into the brutality of al-Sisi regime came with the killing of Giulio Regeni in Cairo in February 2016.  Regeni was an Italian doctoral student from Cambridge University who was conducting research on Egypt’s labor movement. His mutilated body was discovered in a ditch in poor Cairo neighborhood. Regeni had obviously been tortured.  Indeed, his parents indicated they could not recognize his body when it was returned to his home in Italy. 

Regeni murder: Trial of Egyptians for Italian student's murder suspended

Regeni’s murder caused outrage in Italy and elsewhere.  It led the Italian government to recall its ambassador to Egypt.  However, the al-Sisi regime refused to cooperate with Italian investigators and the crime remains unsolved.  If we think about Regeni’s torture and murder by Egyptian secret police for the sole crime of studying Egypt’s working class, then we realize what the fate is of Egyptians who are arrested and thrown into Egypt’s jails. 

The al-Sisi regime excels in corruption and nepotism which benefits him and his clique        

(al-shilla). The Egyptian Army controls an estimated 30% of the state budget.  It produces many non-military goods such as bottled water and pasta sauce as well as collecting funds from services such as collecting tolls on Egypt’s highways. Not surprisingly, it is illegal in Egypt to publish the military’s budget. 

In many Western circles, Saudi Crown Prince, Muhammad bin Salman ibn Sa'ud, has been hailed as a reformer.  As they say, however, you can’t tell a book by its cover. MBS has introduced many social changes in Saudi society, even as he has suppressed dissent.  For example, he imprisoned a young Saudi woman, Loujain al-Hathloul, who advocated for the right of women to be able to drive automobiles for 3 years.  Even though MBS had already announced that women would have this right, she was imprisoned and subject to torture and sexual harassment and forbidden to be in contact with her. 

After convincing his father, King Salman, to cede the reins of power to him, MBS arrested a large number of princes, including the prominent progressive, Prince al-Walid bin Talal, and locked them up in the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Riyadh. He accused them of corruption and failing to pay taxes.  It is alleged that some princes were hung by their arms to force them to pay up. 

 

Shortly after fleecing the princes of hundreds of millions of dollars, MBS bough a yacht for $452 million and a painting supposedly by Leonardo da Vinci for $450 million while cutting social spending in the Kingdom.  (For details on MBS’ purchase of Leonardo’s Salvator Mundi, which is of dubious provenance, see the film, The Lost Leonardo - https://www.sonyclassics.com/film/thelostleonardo  

Of course, one of the key criteria in awarding MBS a 2021 MENA Region Dictator of the Year Award is his killing ofWashington Post columnist and Saudi dissident, Jamal Khashoggi, in 2018. But MBS went farther than just murdering Khashoogi. He had the columnist's body dismembered, earning him the moniker of MBS (Mr. Buzz Saw).

Meanwhile, MBS decision to enter the civil war in Yemen has led to thousands of causalities due to the indiscriminate bombing of Yemeni targets.  It is estimated that 25% of the casualties caused by Saudi air attacks have been Yemeni civilians, increasing the misery of the populace of the poorest nation in the Arab world. 

The final award goes to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan After beginning his rule as Prime Minister in 2002, Erdogan returned to power in 2008 and has, since then, become increasingly autocratic. Intolerant of dissent, like all dictators, Erdogan has jailed hundreds of journalists, earning his regime the dubious honor of having the largest number of journalists imprisoned per capita of any country in the world. 

The Turkish president has removed secular Turks from educational posts in secondary schools and universities and replaced them with loyal Islamists from his Justice and development Party (AKP).  Thus, he has tried to restructure the educational system to indoctrinate Turkish youth into the AKP's politicized Islamist ideology.

Erdoğan's damage is not limited to Turkey. He has promoted sectarianism and great instability in Eastern Turkey and north eastern Syria where he has used mercenaries - some with ties to the former Islamic State - to attack one of the main opposition groups to terrorists in eastern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces, solely because they are comprised of Syrian (Rojava) Kurds.

Turkey’s Transnational Repression: Abduction, Rendition and Forcible Return of Erdoğan Critics

Meanwhile, Erdoğan is the only one of the dictators who seems to be digging his own grave. The Turkish economy has suffered from speculative growth and the Turkish Lira has suffered as result. Many loans used for construction were inn US dollars. As the Lira has lost value, paying back these loans becomes increasingly difficult. The current rate of inflation may be as high as 60%, but Erdoğan refuses to raise interest rates. As the economy deteriorates, the Turkish president's popularity is plummeting, even among his AKP supporters.

Cashing In Grandma’s Gold Coins, a Turkish Family Struggles to Get By

Where do these dictators leave the MENA region in 2022?  None is tackling the economic crises facing their societies. Even in Saudi Arabia where there is an estimated 25% poverty rate, social services subsidies are being cut.  None of these authoritarians is confronting the existential threat poised by the Climate Emergency.

As temperatures in the region rise and drought and water shortages become more severe, no policies for addressing these problems are being formulated.  Syria's Arab Spring Uprising was caused by the collapse of the agrarian economy due to lack of water along the Euphrates River.  The residents of 170 villages were forced to leave their homes and migrate westward, seeking state assistance in the process.  When these demands went unanswered, calls for democracy began and Syria 's destruction ensued.

Thus, the prospects for 2022 are bleak. The lack of democratic leadership in the region and the massive state corruption accompanying authoritarian rule will continue to cause the MENA region's youth - its best hope for the future - to seek to migrate abroad in search of a better future than they can expect to find in the nations in which they presently reside.

Of course, all these repressive dictators benefit from foreign support, particularly the United States or Russia.  While there is little chance that Putin will withdraw Russia's support of Bashar al-Asad's regime or the dictatorship in Tehran, the Biden administration should reconsider more arms sales to Saudi Arabia and Egypt and publicly call out the ongoing human rights abuses in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Contra the argument of Senator Rand Paul, long-tern support for dictatorial rule will come home to bite the US and undermine ny pretension it has to arguing that it supports democracy globally.