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| Iraqi farmers survey their parched land |
Most analysis of the contemporary Middle East has focused on the instability in the region. Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons, the civil war in Yemen, the resurgence of the Islamic State in northeastern Syria and Iraq, and the persistent authoritarianism and corruption which characterized most MENA region regimes has dominated attention. However, why is there no discussion of the climate crisis facing the region – the proverbial “gorilla in the room”?
What are the consequences of climate change which have already impacted the MENA region? How will the region be affected by the persistence of corrupt and authoritarian rule? How will the climate emergency affect the ability of terrorist groups like the Da'ish to expand their power and influence in the MENA region?
Rising temperatures
Some of the most dramatic developments will be the inability of the peoples of the Middle East to inhabit or travel in certain areas of the region. Mecca is a case in point. By the end of the century, temperatures will be so high that the hajj will no longer be possible. In the Gulf region, temperatures will exceed 60 degrees Celsius by mid-century preventing residents from going outdoors during the afternoon given lethal heat
Droughts and water shortages
As droughts continue in the MENA region, water shortages are increasing. In Iraq, the Tigris and Euphrates rivers have experienced serious declines in water. In Iraq, it is estimated that 30 million people are threatened by the water crisis. Already, many crops in Iraq have not been harvested because the drought has been accompanied by he intensification of rising temperatures. In short, much agriculture in Iraq and other parts of the region may no longer be viable, unless new methods of cultivation are developed.
Over the past two decades, Iraq has lost 50% of its agricultural capacity die to salinization which has contaminated arable land. Little effort has been devoted to swayer management and training farmers in skills to conserve and more effectively utilize water for irrigation. Extensive state corruption and the hiring of unqualified bureaucrats in many ministries has hampered efforts to enact new agricultural and environmental policies.
The provinces of Basra, Dhi Qar and Maysan have seen a 90% decline in population as residents have left the region due to the degradation of agriculture resulting from water shortages and declining quality of water. As farmers have migrated out of the region, there are less farmers left to cultivate the land resulting in less food production.
Iraq’s southern port city, al-Basra, which faces a severe environmental crisis, provides one of many examples of the access to water. The Shatt al-‘Arab River, which is the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, 120 miles north of al-Basra, is polluted and thus cannot provide drinking water to the city. This pollution isn’t new but rather extends back to the 1991 Gulf War when numerous ships were sunk in the Shatt al-‘Arab.
At the same time, the decreased water flow of the Tigris and Euphrates has facilitated salt water from the Persian Gulf moving up the Shatt al-‘Arab, further impeding use of the river’s water to meet the city’s needs. The water table in the area around the city has sunk and the chemical contamination index is 100%. To the degree that well water is available it is unsafe to drink or even use for bathing.
Egypt’s water shortages have reached a level which has been designated as facing “water scarcity.” However, access to adequate water in Egypt has now brought the country close to “absolute water scarcity.” Egypt derives 90% of its water from areas beyond its borders and 95% from the Nile River. Thus, Egypt is one of the most water dependent countries on the planet.
At the moment, Egypt is facing a challenge from Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which is meant to increase the country’s electricity supply through the hydropower produced by the dam. For Egypt, however, the dam is viewed as potentially an existential threat.
With the Mediterranean Sea’s rising waters, which are pushing into the Nile River 2 tributaries which enter the sea, and contaminating arable land with salt, any decline in the Nile’s flow would further exacerbate these problems. Only 3% of Egypt’s land is arable, while 30% of its population depend on agriculture. Severe water shortages would have a devastating effect on the country. It is ironic that the 2 MENA region countries – Iraq and Egypt - where world civilization began are facing the possibility that their agricultural sectors could, by 2050, collapse
Dual Threat: Water Scarcity and Rising Sea Levels in Egypt.
Negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia have not led to a resolution of the dispute. Egypt has called upon Ethiopia not to fill the lake behind the dam but, despite American and foreign assistance with negotiations, Ethiopia has so far refused Egypt’s demand, producing a threat of military intervention by Egypt. With Ethiopia preoccupied with a grinding civil war, the government of Prime Minister Abi Ahmed lie with that conflict, not with reaching an accord on the Nile water flow with Egypt.
Civil strife
Already, we have seen another serious of the impact of the climate crisis which is an increase in civil strife. Many Westerners and even Arabs believe that the Syrian civil war was based in radical Islamism. The actual cause was the impact of a serious drought along the upper Euphrates River which forced the residents of 175 villages to leave them because they lacked enough water to sustain themselves. As these Syrians moved westward seeking access to government services in large urban areas, that assistance wasn’t forthcoming.
Demonstrations ensued, which morphed into calls for democratic change in Syria, which led to a brutal crackdown by the al-Asad regime. Once the demonstrations spread to other areas of the country, Bashar al-Asad released imprisoned terrorists in an effort to change the narrative of the opposition to his regime from demands for democratic change, to one based on radical Islamist terrorism versus the continued power of a secular nationalist regime.
The climate crisis along the Euphrates River which caused the population to leave eastern Syria and laid the groundwork of the horrific civil war which subsequently ensued. Half of Syria’s population has been displaced by the civil war. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have been killed and thousands have become refugees, either moving to Lebanon or other Arab countries, or trying to migrate to Europe and other Western countries.
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| Iranian farmers and supporters protest water scarcity Isfahan |
The Syrian civil war isn’t an isolated phenomenon. There are many other sources of MENA region civil strife caused by the intensification of the climate crisis. In Iran, 97% of the population suffers from water shortages. The diverting of water by the Iranian regime from Khuzestan Province in the southeast, which is inhabited by ethnic Arabs, to farmers of Persian ethnicity in Iran’s central plateau, led to widespread demonstrations in July 2021. Farmers in Khuzestan were deeply angered by being deprived of their traditional sources of water. Several demonstrators were killed by security forces.
In Isfahan, farmers, supported by tens of thousands of supporters, protested the dry bed of the city’s Zayanderound River. Instead of water being allowed in the riverbed, it has been diverted though underground pipes to provide the residents of the Shi’a religious city of Qum and industrial complexes in Yazd Province. After allowing the demonstration for a few days, the Tehran regime finally cracked down on the protesting farmers who were forced to disperse.
Iran Forcefully Clamps Down on Protests Against Growing Water Shortage
It is interesting to note that references were made in the report of the Khuzestan demonstrations that “water mafias” had been involved in stealing water from its sources, thus depriving citizens of it. In other words, as the water crisis in the Middle East grows, we can expect criminal elements to try and benefit from shortages for their material gain. Thus, the climate crisis will further undermine the region’s stability.
Solutions
Despite an abundance of sun, and large amounts of vacant land, MENA region countries have yet to mobilize the power of the sun. One of the few countries which has developed solar energy is Morocco which has the distinction of having built the world’s largest solar power complex in Quarzazate. Four solar power plants produce electricity fo 1;3 million people in an area of 3000 hectares, larger than the city of Paris, in the desert.
Solar panels line the Atlas Mountains facing south where large tubes of synthetic oil heated turbines during the daytime hours. The panels adjust their direction throughout the day to obtain the maximum benefit from the sun’s energy. Recently, Morocco has used molten salt which it heats in tubes next to the solar panels. The saltwater is heated to such a temperature that it continues to provide solar energy for 3 hours after the sun has set.
Morocco’s incentive to develop solar power is its lack of fossil fuels. To avoid the possibility of rising oil and natural gas prices, it seeks to reach a 52% threshold of renewable energy by 2030. Its plans include a goal of developing an excess of solar energy so that it will be able to export some of it to Europe.
https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/morocco-solar-farm-power-big-as-paris/
Egypt recently decided to open bids on a huge area of land in the south near the border with Sudan. This solar plant is intended to be the largest in the MENA region. Will this plant be constructed in a timely and financially sound manner? The Egyptian military controls 30-40% of Egypt’s budget and may interfere in the project. In 2011, when a group of youth tried to form Karm Solar – a solar energy firm – the military denied the fledgling company access to the national electric grid. Karm Solar is now a profitable company but, among the corrupt members of elite, profits always trump civic nationalism.
In an effort to tackle its chronic electricity shortage problem and reduce dependence on Iran for electrical energy, Iraq has likewise commissioned the development of solar power plants. In March 2021, Iraq contracted with TotalEnergies for a 1 GW solar power plant, and in August 2021, it signed an agreement with PowerChina, which is state-owned and located in Dubai, to develop 2 solar power plants. In October 2021, it signed a contract for 5 plants with the UAE, which are to be built in Dhi Qar Province in the south, in Ramadi in central Iraq, in Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, and in Amara in
the country’s southeast.
Iraq, UAE Contract to Build 5 Solar Power Stations
Regional Water Authorities
An important step in confronting MENA region water shortages would be to establish regional water authority commissions. In light of the problems mentioned above, one such authority could include Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria. All 4 countries riverine systems are interdependent, i.e., the Tigris, Euphrates, and Zab rivers and their tributaries.
One of the main problems for water has been the focus on national water priorities. While this may have made sense 50 years ago, it no longer is a viable strategy. Turkey is in the strongest negotiating position since it controls the headquarters of the Euphrates River where it has constructed several dams. These dams have deprived Syria and Iraq of needed water for agricultural irrigation. Likewise,Iran has constructed dams on the Zab which delivers water to Iraq, diminishing water flows into the Tigris River.
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| Cheekha Dar (Kurdish: Black Tent) - Iraq's highest mountain |
Iran could likewise benefit from this water policy. If it obtained more water from the Zagros range, it too could use this resource for its agriculture and feel less pressure to dam the Zab and its tributaries, thus having a less adverse effect on the Tigris.
Democracy and terrorism
Many suggestions can be made as to how the Middle East region should confront the region’s growing climate emergency. However, the persistence of corrupt authoritarian regimes in the region has worked to impede needed reforms, much less bold innovative policies. Thus, democracy promotion in the MENA region is not just a choice, bit a necessity. Corrupt rulers are concerned about their pocketbooks, not their citizens’’ well-being.
Movements like the October Revolution (Thawrat Tishreen) in Iraq, and the youth movements in Iraqi Kurdistan (the KRG), the Sudan, Algeria and Lebanon require more international support. Only through removing corrupt ruling elites, can the MENA region move forward in diversifying its oil economies, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy, such as Morocco is doing, and develop strategies to assure water and food security.
The Middle East’s failure to democratize promises not just climate-induced catastrophes but fertile ground for terrorist organizations, such as the Islamic State (Da’ish) and al-Qa’ida to reemerge as major threats to the region. The most immediate impact of the climate emergency has been the migration of peoples who are adversely affected by it, the Syrian civil war being just one example. The climate crisis in Darfur, with struggle over shrinking agricultural land, is another case in point, especially since former Sudanese president, Omar al-Bashir, exploited the divisions among local tribes for his personal benefit.
It is critical that the Biden administration, the European Union and the United Nations put more pressure on regimes in the MENA region, such as the al-Sisi regime in Egypt, the MBS regime in Saudi Arabia, and the Erdogan regime in Turkey, to end their repressive policies. At the end of the day, the Climate Emergency will spare no country in the Global North or Global South.
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