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| Burial site of the 100+ students and teachers killed by US bombing at Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School at Minab, February 28, 2026 |
The key answer in explaining Trump's foreign policy is his lack of leadership. Trump has no vision of the United States' future. Instead, he follows an ad hoc approach whereby foreign policy is concocted in haste and with little forethought. More often than not, narcissism has played a central role in Trump's decision-making. Entering the presidential race in 2016, Trump was more interested in using the publicity of his campaign to boost his flagging business empire
Narcissism is dangerous when it characterizes a political leader's personality, especially for one who rules the most powerful country in the world. The narcissist as political leader sees the world though his own mirror and believes that only he understands what decisions should be made. It also opens the leader to being influenced by obsequious advisors and other leaders who know how to manipulate him,
If a move in the international region increases his global visibility, Trump is invariably drawn to it. Alternatively, if a foreign policy decision accords with his admiration for a specific authoritarian leader, especially Vladimir Putin, then its outcome will be influenced by whether it pleases or displeases the dictator.
There was no civic impetus for Trump's entry into politics in 2016 and that lack of ciciv consciousness persists in Trump 2.0. Foreign policy is not viewed in a global context that seeks to promote American strength and global stability, let alone democratic governance, but rather as a set of discrete issues. While Trump argues that each decision he makes strengthens the United States' position in the world, his record demonstrates the opposite, namely that he has seriously weakened the United States.
Leaving negotiations to his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and business partner, Steve Witkoff, while ignoring diplomats with regional expertise,Trump has undermined American influence in the Middle East.
The Roots of the Iran War Much has been written about the Iran War (see my: Will the United States and Israel Achieve Victory or Will the Iran Conflict Become Another "Forever War"? ) As Jonathan Swan Maggie Haberman's incisive New York Times article chronicling the meeting where the Iran attack was decided has shown, Trump refused to engage in a discussion of the possibility of the Tehran regime responding by closing the Strait of Hormuz. How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran
Nor did Trump heed the advice of Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states that an attack on Iran would be an egregious mistake. Their assessment was correct as Iran's response to the US and Israeli attacks was to bomb American bases in the Gulf as well as financial and tourists targets, thoroughly disrupting the Gulf region. Further, Trump never considered including the United States' NATO allies in the discussion about launching the subsequent war with Iran.
Seduced by Benjamin Netanyahu's playing up to his narcissistic personality, Trump saw the attack on Iran "solving" a problem which has bedeviled American presidents since the so-called Isl;amic Republic came to power in 1979. Netanyahu played to Trump's legacy desires by promising him that a joint American-Israeli attack would only require a short amount of time to achieve its objectives. What amde this scenario particularly attractive was that no American ground forces would be needed.
Assured that the Tehran regime would quickly collapse after intensive Us and Israeli bombing, much as Venezuela quickly became an American protectorate after Maduro was removed from power, Trump marched ahead. Trump felt certain that once the Islamic Republic collapsed, especially after Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei and a large part of Iran's military leadership was killed on the morning of February 28th, the new regime would soon come to terms on ending Iran's nuclear weapons program.
The Iran War's Impact on the Gulf Neither Trump, Netanyahu nor the US military realized the degree to which Iran would be able to use asymmetric warfare to stymy the joint US-Israeli attack. Nor did they realize that Iran would attack Saudi Arabia and the US' allies in the Arab Gulf. Unlike Trump, the Tehran regime has developed a decentralized ("mosaic") strategy for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the armed forces and police which gave local commanders operational autonomy to fight any external attack.
The result of the US-Israeli attack on Iran was to seriously damage those Gulf states which have defense ties with the US and bases. An Iranian drone attack on Bahrayn largely destroyed the local US air base. In the process, it disrupted the US' supply chain to its carrier fleet in the Arabian Sea off the Strait of Hormuz. A drone attack on Qatar set back its natural gas exports by 3-5 years while the UAE saw its foreign investment bubble burst by similar attacks which targeted hotels and tourist sites. Kuwait was particularly hard hit .
In sum, production of oil and natural gas, and fertilizer, upon which much of the world depends was halted. The idea of Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf as "islands of tranquility" in unstable Middle East was shattered. Expatriate capital flight was the result. While some oil; passes through the Starit of Hormuz at the time of this writing, insurance costs and the reluctance of some tankers to pass though the Gulf continue to keep global oil prices well beyond that of the day before the joint United States-Israeli attack.Gulf States Struggle to Recover Economically After 6 Months of War
The spread of the Iran War After the Iran War began, it didn't take long for Iran to mobilize its proxies. The first to act was Hizballah which sent rockets into northern Israel. Israel's response was to invade southern Lebanon, bomb what it claimed were Hizballah targets in Beirut and demolish villages populated by Shi'a Lebanese along the Israel-Lebanon border and then further to the north. Further, Israeli forces have likewise occupied Syrian territory neighboring Lebanon. Civilian casualties have mounted as fighting in souther Lebanon has continued.
Because Trump is mired down with the Iran War, the November mid-term elections, fighting efforts to slow down A.A. development in the United States, not to speak of his vanity projects, he has paid little attention to the Middle East apart from forcing Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, the Iran War also enabled the Netanyahu regime to continue to occupy a large section of Gaza (70-%) and bomb local targets at will claiming they were HAMAS operatives without any reaction from the White House. Meanwhile, as in Lebanon, civilian causalities have mounted.
While they took some time to react to the US-Israel attack on Iran, the Houthis, Tehran's Yemeni proxies, announced they would ban Saudi ships from transiting the Bab la-Mandab, which is the narrow strait at the opening of the Red Sea. With the Strait of Hormuz closed , Saudi Arabia had been diverting oil shipments through Petroline, its 746 mile pipeline to the Red Sea port city of Yanbu. Once oil was loaded onto tankers, they would proceed south through the Bab al-Mandab on their way to Asian markets.
Now that southern Red Sea route is closed, forcing Saudi oil to be transshipped though SUMED, a pipeline paralleling the Suez Canal. Of course, this route adds enormous amounts of time and money to Saudi oil shipments destined for India, China and other Asian countries.
To add insult to injury, the Iran War has also drawn Iraq's pro-Iranian militias into the conflict. On the evening of September 10th and continuing into September 11th, missiles originating in Iraq struck the Petroline, damaging pipelines and pumps and shutting its down. The pipeline is being repaired and expected to resume operations Saudi Arabia restarts East-West oil pipeline, sources say
Nevertheless, the Petroline remains vulnerable to attacks from Iraq; militias. While the Iraqi government has claimed it would disarm the militias and integrate them into its national defense forces, this still hasn't occurred. The militias has stationed considerable forces along the Iraqi-Saudi border in the south which can be activated to attack Saudi facilities at any time by Tehran,.From Maysan to Saudi Arabia, drone attack puts Iraqi province under scrutiny
If the threat to Saudi oil shipments throigh the Red Sea wasn't a dangerous enough extension of the Iran War, the Houthis have upped the ante by attacking Saudi backed forces of the internationally recognized Yemen government which controls the south and southeastern portions of the country. On September 10th, the same day Petroline was struck by missiles form Iraq, the Houthis mounted a large scale attack on government forces.
When. the smoke cleared, government forces had cut and run, leaving much of their heavy weaponry behind, giving the Houthis a decisive victory. The Houthis were able to capture the important port city of Mocha and gain control of the entire length of Yemen's Red Sea coastline. Recently, it has become clear that this attack was planned last summer with the help of the IRGC's Quds Force which is responsible for external military operations. Iranian agents have delivered parts to sophisticated missiles and taught the Houthis how to build them.
In July, the Houthis targeted Saudi Arabia's oil refineries, replicating earlier attacks on oil facilities in the Kingdom. This month, the attacks dramatically increased and instead focused on military targets in the Kingdom. The Houthis attacked Riyadh, Taif Yanbu Khamis Mushait, Bish and even Mecca. Despite a reqrest from Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's de factor ruler, that Donald Trump send American forces to counter the Houthi attacks, POTUS refused Saudi Arabia Downs Houthi Missiles Targeting Kingdom, Official Says
With Iranian support, and control over Yemen's Red Sea coast, its capital, Sana'a, and the most densely parts of Yemen in the north and northwest, the Houthis are well placed to support Iran in keeping oil prices in flux, making it difficult to export oil from the Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, and posing a military threat to Saudi Arabia 'We simply don't know' - JP Morgan struggling to forecast oil prices due to Trump's war with Iran
The Iran War and the spread of nuclear weapons in the Middle East A core justification by the United States and Israel for attacking Iran was to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon. Although much of its enriched uranium lies underneath the rubble of nuclear facilities which the US and Israel bombed in June 2025 and then again after February 28th of this year, the Iranians still possesses the capability to develop nuclear weapons.
Many analysts have argued that the war has brought the most hardline elements of the IRGC to power. Under Supreme Leander Ali Khamanei, there was at least a fatwa (religious decree) banning Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. `Now the hardliners argue that acquiring such a weapon is mandatory to prevent Iran from being attacked by the United States and Israel in the future. It is likely that such efforts will begin again, especially if the United States and Iran can't agree on way to end their current conflict.
Give the Iran War, which began without its consultation and the unreliability of depending on an American defense umbrella, Saudi Arabia is now considering developing its own nuclear industry and weaponry. Trump recently agreed to provide the Kingdom with nuclear energy technology for civilian purposes. The Saudi monarchy would be prohibited from using the technology to develop nuclear weapons. However, after Congressional criticism, Trump withdrew the offer.Saudi Arabia Open to Possibly Developing Nuclear Weapons
What this suggests is that Saudi Arabia may very well turn to Russia and China as possible supporters of its efforts to develop nuclear weapons. Because both nations seek to expand their influence in the oil and natural gas rich Gulf region, there is a strong incentive for them to begin by helping Saudi Arabia develop a civilian nuclear technology industry. If Saudi Arabia does begin work on a civilian nuclear program, there is little doubt that Turkey and probably Egypt will follow suit.
Ironically, there is a very good possibility that a war which was initiated to prevent Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapon will not only fail in that goal but promote the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the MENA region. By not factoring in the extensive use of interceptors to interdict Iranian drones whiuch has deprived US forces of critical weaponry, and failing to protect Saudi Arabia and th Arab Gulf states, Trump has undermined their confidence. This probable outcome demonstrates again the incompetence of Trump who had no idea of what he was doing when he launched the attack with Israel on Iran.
Empowering Russia and China Vladimir Putin's has repaid Iran many times over for its support in helping him develop factories to produce the highly effective Shahed 3 drone in Russia. It is highly plausible that Russian intelligence provided to the Tehran regime allowed it to better target American bases. During attacks on bases in Kuwait and Jordan, 9 American servicemen were killed and many more wounded. Russia has helped Iran build sophisticate ballistic and crusie missiles and rearmed it through shipments delivered via the Caspian Sea.Russia’s Wartime Support for Iran
Despite Putin's active involvement in providing Iran with military support before and during the current war, Trump continues to laud the Russian autocrat. Admiring him for his dictatorial powers, Trump seeks to shape his own presidency on Putin's model. Over the objection of European members, Trump has invited Putin to attend the G20 Summit which will be held in Miami this coming December. Trump also angered members of the G20 by inviting Russia's sanctioned finance minister to attend the G20 miisterial finace meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, earlier this year.
Even though the US Senate recently passed a bill, the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, named in honor of the late South Carolina senator, may observers feel that Trump will not enforce the bill, even thought he signed it into law. Indeed, under Trump, the United States has adopted policies more favorabl;e to Russia, despite the fact that Putin launched th unprovoked war in February 2022. What’s really behind Trump’s deference to Putin?
Trump's war has not only enhanced Russia's influence in Iran and the Gulf region but China's as well. Indeed, the Brookings Institution argues that China is the real victor in the Iran War. China has been able to argue that thr US commitment to defense agreements cannot be trusted, with the implications that entering such agreements should avoided. For the first time in decades, the United States lacks a n aircraft carrier in the South China Sea. The US likewise has transferred many interceptor batteries from East Asia to the Middle East. These developments has encouraged Chinese President Xi Jinping to adopt a more aggressive policy towards incorporation Taiwan into mainland China. How the Iran war benefits China’s global ambitions
By continuing to purchase large amounts of Iranian oil, China has effectively propped up Iran's economy. It has used a barter system to provide Iran with billions of dollars worth of goods, including arms and the resupply of parts needed for its missiles and drones. China has enabled Iran to circumvent many of the international sanctions imposed on it by enabling it to enter multilateral organizations such as the BRICS group and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Enabling Iran: A Timeline of China’s Role During and After Operation Epic Fury
Impact of the war on the global economy While this topic deserves a lengthy tretment, we should not forget the imaoct of the Trump-Netanyahu War on the world's farmers. Large numbers of famrers have been deprived of the nexcessary fertilizer with which to gorw their crops, creating more food inseccurity globally.
The significant rise in energy prices, especially diesel fuel which is used in train engines and tractor trailers, has increased the price of a wide variety of goods from food to home heating oil, to airline tickets to construction materials and much more. The destruction of a large part of Qatar's natural gas industry will take 3-5 years to reapair and regain pre-war production levels, keeping the price of natural gas considerably higher than it would have been had the war not started. And we have seen riots in many countries throughout the world.
But Donald Trump could care less ( and the same can be said of Benjamin Netanyahu). As Thomas Friedman notes in an Opinion column in The New York Times:
"Alas...when someone as morally warped as Trump - whose first secretary of state called him a "moron" - assumes this much unchecked power at the dawn of the Age of Artificial Intelligence, he can't be ignored. Because right now, Trump is leaving America exposed to dangerous viruses: digital, biological, and diplomatic. Something bad is going to happen as a result. We and our children are going to pay for this, and not only at the gas pump. Trump Is Going Viral in the Worst Ways
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