Iraqi elections campaign billboards |
Is it valid to classify Iraq as a democracy?
The answer is a qualified yes. However, to apply the term democracy in Iraqi
politics without a modifier is problematic.
Iraq is a nation-state involved in the process of a transition to democracy. It
is as of yet not a consolidated democracy.
Three happy Iraqi voters |
It should be noted that the process of change from an authoritarian regime to a democracy in transition and then to a consolidated democracy is rarely, if
ever, a linear process. Further, once a
democracy is consolidated, that is not the “end of history.” A consolidated or semi-consolidated democracy
may experience retrenchment (“backsliding”), as the examples of Italy, Hungary,
Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Turkey, Venezuela, and the Philippines
demonstrate. Even the US is witnessing
an undermining of its democratic institutions and processes. See, for example, the recent volume, How Democracies Die, by Daniel Ziblatt
and Steven Levitsky.
Since 2005, Iraq has had 4 national elections. The main criterion of a democratic elections
is that the outcome isn’t known. This
has been true of all 4 of the elections which were held in a manner that all observers
consider to have been fair and free.
Doesn’t the lower
turnout of the May 12th elections indicate a weakening of support
for democracy in Iraq compared to higher turnouts in past elections?
This is an important question but one with a less than
obvious answer. First, the turnout of
the Sa’iroun Coalition – primarily comprised of followers of Muqtada al-Sadr -
was about the same as in the 2014 parliamentary elections. The real drop in turnout was for the
established party coalitions which have held power since 2014 and even before. This
decline in voter support was especially noticeable for the State of Law and the
Nasr coalitions.
A government bus poster advising Iraqi voters to check their personal information prior to the May elections |
Another reason the parties in power did poorly was the
statement by Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani that, in the May 12th
elections, Iraqis were not required to vote.
This statement differed from Sayyid al-Sistani’s position in past elections
when he indicated that voting was a necessity. Many Iraqis saw his statement
prior to the May elections as an admonition to voters not to support the
political parties currently in power because they have done little to attack corruption
and solve the everyday problems faced by the populace at large.
The key takeaway when analyzing voter turnout is the
following: There was a higher turnout
rate among the lower classes of Iraqi society, particularly the poor and lower
middle classes who supported the Sa’iroun, than the educated middle classes. This voting pattern is highly irregular
because studies of voting behavior in democratic polities have overwhelming
demonstrated that educated and professional members of the middle class invariably
vote at higher rates than less educated sectors of the population. This was not the case in the May 2018 Iraqi
elections.
The ongoing media campaign for the May elections |
One reason is the analyst’s bias towards the “Great Man of History”
approach to politics. Individual
leaders, whether Saddam Husayn, Nuri al-Maliki, Haydar al-Abadi, Hadi al-Amiri,
Muqtada al-Sadr, and so on, are the most visible to the analyst, make continuous
statements to the media, and always try to inflate their power and influence. That all political leaders require a strong
and participatory social base if they are to win elections seems to have been
lost in the analyses of the May 2018 parliamentary elections.
Combine the Great Leader of History approach with what I
call the “sin of presentism” – the failure to situate politics in a historical
context – and you arrive at an analysis which is often adept at explaining
continuity, but unable to explain substantive change when it occurs. These 2 conceptual flaws constitute the main
reason why the May 12th elections took so many analysts “by surprise.”http://new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2009/01/10-conceptual-sins-in-analyzing-middle.html
Why do we need a
historical perspective when elections occur in the here and now and deal with
every day – contemporary- issues?
The reason traditional sectarian party coalitions performed
poorly in the last elections is that they have been promising to improve social
services and fight corruption since 2005.
These promises haven’t been kept.
At the same time, the dominant party elites have attempted to manipulate
ethno-sectarian identities to promote vertical identities, i.e., identities
constructed along lines of sect – Sunni vs. Shi’a – or ethnicity – Kurd vs.
Arab, or Turkmen vs. Kurd - to promote their personal goals, hide the rapacious
nature of their behavior, and prevent cross-sect and cross-ethnic alliances.
Employees of the Iraqi High Electoral Commission at work |
Since corruption hasn’t abated and social services haven’t improved, Iraqis reacted this past May by either boycotting the elections or, in the case of Sa’iroun, voting for a list which explicitly focused on tacking corruption and social services. We can see Iraqis saying to themselves before voting: “Fool me once, shame on you! Fool me twice, shame on me!”
But weren’t the
Sadrists complicit in corruption and poor delivery of social services when they
were in control of certain ministries in the past?
This statement is true.
However, the Sadrists have continuously provided social services to
their constituents outside the confines of the state. Even if they acted in a corrupt manner when
in power, the Sadrist leadership has remained loyal to its base. Further, the Sadrists have always promoted a nationalist vision of Iraq in reaching
out to Sunnis and attacking sectarianism.
Because the Sa’iroun Coalition ran on a platform of fighting
corruption, the Sadrists will find it difficult to countenance rampant
corruption while in office. While Iraqis
can rest assured that the problem of corruption won’t disappear in the near
future, the Sadrists will be forced to confront corruption to at least a
limited degree if they are to improves the delivery of social services.
The Sadrists will remain under intense scrutiny by
established political elites who will try to delegitimize the Sa’iroun. The Iraqi Communist Part, the other partner
in the Sa’iroun Coalition, will also serve to constrain them in engaging in
corruption. Without the ICP, the
Sadrists lose their connection to educated youth and intellectuals who they
need to demonstrate that their political support is broad based and not
confined to the poor and working classes
What do the elections
tell us about the power of sub-national identities in Iraq?
Despite the fetishism of Western analysts of viewing Iraq
through the frame of Shica, Sunni and Kurd, they have failed to
realize and appreciate the degree to which many inhabitants of the country
place their Iraqi identity before their sub-national identities. One reason for this phenomenon is the fact
that Iraqi tribes, especially Arab tribes, invariably contain both Shici
and Sunni clans (al-afkhadh). Another powerful influence is that, in the Iraqi street, relations
between different sects and ethnics groups has always been one of tolerance and
“live and let live. The films, Forget Baghdad, and Baghdad High, underscore this sense of religious tolerance and
cultural pluralism.
While Iraq’s religious and ethnic divisions are often viewed
as a political liability, they serve to place a set of “checks and balances” on
would be sectarian entrepreneurs.
Despite the view among Sunni Arabs outside Iraq, that it constitutes a “Shi
a country,” the Shi a found themselves divided into 5 factions during the May
2018 elections. The Kurds and Sunni
Arabs were divided into several different factions.
Political divisions among Iraqi Kurdish factions |
One only has to attend a football (soccer) game which pits
Iraq against a foreign country to see how powerful the sense of Iraqi identity is
on display. In this sense, Iraq is
little different from other nation-states which strong regional senses of
identity. In Italy, for example,
Italians constantly squabble politically.
However, whenever it’s time for World Cup in football, the country
demonstrates an incredible sense of national unity.
What about Iraq’s
Kurdish population – where do they fit in the country’s political equation?
There is little doubt that the Kurds are very demoralized
after the failure of the September 2017 referendum on establishing an
independent Kurdish state. The
referendum failed to produce any positive results. Instead, it exposed the fissures which have always
existed among the two dominant Kurdish partied, the Kurdish Democratic Party
(KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). The failed referendum also resulted in the
Kurds losing the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and its surrounding areas and other
parts of the “disputed territories” along the Kurdish-Arab border in
north-central Iraq. This loss of land deprived
the KRG of one-third of its revenues from oil.
Undoubtedly unhappy with the political reality they face,
many Kurds have come to the realization that it is preferable to develop an
accommodation with the Federal Government in Baghdad which has already provided
some salary relief for Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) employees. Demonstrations by Kurds against the 2
dominant parties, but the KDP in particular, due to massive corruption and
nepotism, the payment of only partial salaries to KRG employees over the past 2
years, and the declining quality of social services, places the question of
independence in abeyance for the foreseeable future.
At the same time, the Kurds could play a key role in the
formation of the new government in Baghdad.
Concessions could be extracted from the Sa’iroun-Nasr-al-Hikma-al-Wataniya
Alliance which seems most likely to provide the core of the new government once
the manual recount of votes has been completed.
These concessions could include restructuring and increasing the
percentage of the national budget designated for the KRG, in return for an
attack on corruption. If this outcome
occurred, it would be no different from the deal-making which occurs in other
democratic polities after a national election.
How does Iraq compare
with other quasi-democratic states?
Few analysts and commentators have situated the May 12th
elections in a comparative perspective.
If we look at Venezuela, Turkey, Philippines and Russia, to take some
prominent examples, we find opposition leaders barred from running for office,
physically intimidated or even put in prison.
Fidesz Party billboard accusing George Soros of controlling opposition parties |
In Iraq’s election, there were 6904 candidates. Candidates were vetted by 3 different government
agencies and there were no reports of efforts to systematically deny would-be
candidates the right to participate in the national parliamentary elections. Although some problems were reported in the
KRG, on the whole No effort was made to prevent a specific political party from
actively campaigning.
Peoples Democratic Party leader, Sellahattin Demirtas - jailed for "insulting" Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan |
It is true that the recount is not expected to change the
results of Iraq’s elections. However,
the recount will strengthen the legitimacy of the Iraqi elections. Unlike the
United States, where President Donald Trump has sought to undermine the
legitimacy of our democratic elections, and is already trying to cast doubt on
the forthcoming November 2018 elections because the House of Representatives
may flip to the Democratic Party, no major politician in Iraq has sought to
undermine the substance of Iraq’s democratic elections
Youth - the future of democracy in Iraq |
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